Over the past year, Apple (AAPL 0.04%) and Amgen (AMGN -0.69%), two well-established companies that are part of the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average, have faced significant headwinds. Apple is struggling due to the threat that President Donald Trump's trade agenda poses to its business, while Amgen faced a clinical setback late last year. Apple and Amgen have lagged the market over the trailing-12-month period, but despite their issues, both stocks are worth investing in for the long haul. Here's why. An ...

Core Viewpoint - Amgen's stock has faced a decline of 10.4% over the past three months, largely attributed to macroeconomic uncertainties and trade tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Environment - The stock market has experienced volatility due to President Trump's tariffs and China's retaliatory measures, although a recent deal has eased tensions temporarily [2]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs continues to impact economic growth, despite pharmaceuticals being exempt from initial tariffs [3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Amgen's revenues grew by 9% year over year in Q1 2025, driven by increased patient demand for innovative medicines [4]. - The company is facing declining revenues from oncology biosimilars and established products like Enbrel, with competitive pressures affecting sales [5]. - Key revenue drivers include older medicines like Prolia and Repatha, as well as new drugs such as Tavneos and Tezspire, alongside rare disease drugs from the acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics [5]. Group 3: Drug Pipeline and Approvals - Amgen is evaluating several drugs for additional indications, which could enhance revenue growth, with Uplizna recently approved for IgG4-related disease [6][7]. - The company has invested significantly in M&A to diversify its pipeline, including the development of MariTide, a novel obesity treatment [8][10]. - Clinical studies for MariTide have shown promising results, and further studies are ongoing [9][10]. Group 4: Biosimilars and Market Strategy - Amgen launched several new biosimilars in 2025, generating substantial sales, including Wezlana and Pavblu, which contributed to a 35% year-over-year increase in biosimilar sales [13][15]. - The company is actively pursuing additional biosimilar approvals to mitigate the impact of upcoming patent expirations for key drugs [15][16]. Group 5: Financial Outlook - Amgen's stock has outperformed the industry and S&P 500, with a year-to-date increase of 7.3% [18]. - The stock is reasonably valued, trading at a price/earnings ratio of 13.12, lower than the industry average [21]. - Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have seen upward revisions, indicating positive market sentiment [24][26]. Group 6: Long-term Growth Potential - The company is expected to maintain long-term revenue growth driven by strong performance from key drugs and innovative medicines [27]. - Despite initial data from MariTide studies being below expectations, it holds potential as a significant product for Amgen [27].

Core Insights - The current global trade environment is marked by rising tariffs and tensions, prompting investors to seek stability in defensive sectors that are less impacted by economic fluctuations [1][2] - Large-cap biotech companies with a strong domestic focus, such as Gilead Sciences, Amgen, and AbbVie, are gaining attention as potential defensive investments due to their reliance on the U.S. market [2][3] Biotech Companies Overview - Gilead Sciences derives approximately 70.0% of its Q1 2025 product revenue from the U.S., Amgen generates about 74.7% of its Q4 2024 product sales domestically, and AbbVie obtains roughly 74.8% of its Q1 2025 net revenue from the United States [3][4] - The significant concentration of domestic sales provides a buffer against retaliatory tariffs and economic downturns, as demand for essential medicines tends to be inelastic [4][5] Financial Performance and Stability - Gilead Sciences has a market capitalization of around $132.66 billion, with a year-to-date stock gain of 15.3% and a low Beta of approximately 0.32, indicating defensive characteristics [11][13] - Amgen, valued at approximately $156.41 billion, reported a positive year-to-date performance of +11.6% and a Beta of 0.59, suggesting lower volatility [15][16] - AbbVie has a market capitalization of roughly $345.22 billion, achieving a 9.8% operational revenue increase in Q1 2025, with a forward P/E ratio of about 15.85 [18][19] Policy Environment - Recent U.S. government policy shifts are creating a supportive environment for domestic biotech companies, focusing on onshoring and reshoring manufacturing to enhance supply chain resilience [6][8] - Strategies include financial incentives, direct government investments, and prioritizing domestically produced medicines through 'Buy American' initiatives [7][8] Investment Appeal - The combination of strong cash flows, healthy dividends, and low Beta scores makes U.S.-focused biotech companies appealing during uncertain times [21][20] - Analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus on Gilead and AbbVie, while Amgen is rated as a Hold, reflecting confidence in their defensive qualities amidst market volatility [11][19][15]

Q1 '25 Earnings Call May 1, 2025 Safe Harbor Statement This presentation contains forward-looking statements that are based on the current expectations and beliefs of Amgen. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, are statements that could be deemed forward-looking statements, including any statements on the outcome, benefits and synergies of collaborations, or potential collaborations, with any other company (including BeiGene, Ltd. or Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd.), the performance of Otezla® (a ...

Core Viewpoint - Amgen is set to report its first-quarter 2025 results on May 1, with expectations of strong sales driven by volume growth in key products, although pricing pressures may impact overall revenue [1][4]. Sales Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter sales is $7.96 billion, with earnings expected at $4.16 per share [1]. - Specific sales estimates for key products include Evenity at $406 million, Repatha at $616 million, Kyprolis at $381 million, and Blincyto at $333 million [2]. Patent Expiration Impact - Patents for Prolia and Xgeva expired in February 2025 in the U.S., leading to anticipated significant sales erosion due to biosimilar competition, with estimates of $990 million for Prolia and $542 million for Xgeva [3]. New Product Contributions - Newer drugs like Tezspire and Tavneos are expected to contribute positively to top-line growth, alongside the successful launch of Imdelltra for advanced small cell lung cancer [4]. Declining Sales of Established Products - Sales of Enbrel and Otezla are projected to decline due to price reductions and historical trends related to benefit plan changes and increased co-pay expenses [5][6]. Biosimilars Performance - Increased competition is expected to negatively impact revenues from oncology biosimilars, while sales of Amjevita/Amgevita are likely to have increased [7]. - Amgen launched biosimilars Wezlana and Pavblu, with investors keenly observing their sales performance [8]. Operating Margin Expectations - Amgen anticipates the lowest operating margin of the year at around 42% for the first quarter, with R&D costs expected to rise while SG&A costs as a percentage of sales are projected to decline [9]. Earnings Surprise History - Amgen has a strong earnings surprise history, beating estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 5.23% [10]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for Amgen, with an Earnings ESP of -0.05% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment presents a favorable opportunity for investors to consider solid dividend stocks, which tend to be more resilient than non-dividend-paying companies amid market volatility and potential recession [1]. Group 1: Dividend Stocks Overview - Four recommended dividend-paying stocks during the current market sell-off are AbbVie, Amgen, Bristol Myers Squibb, and Zoetis [2]. Group 2: AbbVie - AbbVie is recognized for its strong position in immunology, despite facing challenges such as a patent cliff and clinical setbacks [3]. - The company has increased its 2027 revenue guidance for key products Skyrizi and Rinvoq by $4 billion to over $31 billion, indicating strong growth potential [4]. - AbbVie has a robust pipeline and a history of increasing dividends for 53 consecutive years, with a forward yield of 3.9%, significantly above the S&P 500 average of 1.3% [5]. Group 3: Amgen - Amgen's shares faced a decline due to underperformance of its weight loss candidate, MariTide, but the company has a strong portfolio with over 10 blockbuster drugs [6]. - Key growth drivers include asthma medicine Tezspire and FDA-approved Tepezza for thyroid eye disease, supporting a strong revenue outlook [7]. - Since initiating dividends in 2011, Amgen has increased payouts by 750%, with a forward yield exceeding 3.5% [8]. Group 4: Bristol Myers Squibb - Bristol Myers is facing significant patent cliffs, particularly for its best-sellers Opdivo and Eliquis, but has managed to secure new approvals to mitigate revenue loss [9]. - Newer medicines like Reblozyl and Opdualag are expected to drive future sales growth [10]. - The company has increased its dividend by nearly 68% over the past decade, offering a yield of 5.1% [11]. Group 5: Zoetis - Zoetis, a leader in animal health, started the year with disappointing guidance but has a strong portfolio with 15 products generating over $100 million in annual sales [12]. - The company is expected to overcome current challenges with its key product Apoquel and has new approvals in the pipeline to drive growth [13]. - Zoetis has increased its dividends by about 500% over the past decade, although its yield is 1.4% [14].