Key Takeaways Amgen shares have climbed 13.5% YTD, outperforming the industry, sector and S&P 500.Strong sales from Repatha, Evenity, Blincyto and new biosimilars offset legacy product declines.Pipeline focus on MariTide and new biosimilars aims to counter Prolia and Xgeva's patent expiries.Amgen’s (AMGN) stock has risen 13.5% so far this year compared with an increase of 1.6% for the industry. The stock has also outperformed the sector and S&P 500 Index, as seen in the chart below.AMGN Stock Outperforms In ...

Core Insights - Amgen (AMGN) reported strong quarterly performance with second-quarter 2025 earnings and sales exceeding estimates, showcasing consistent top-line growth [1][3] - Total revenues increased by 9% year over year to $9.2 billion, with product revenues also rising by 9% to $8.77 billion, driven primarily by volume growth despite declining drug prices [1][6] Revenue Performance - Amgen's total revenues rose 9% year over year to $9.2 billion, with product revenues increasing to $8.77 billion [1][6] - Fifteen of Amgen's products, including Repatha, Blincyto, Tezspire, Uplizna, Tavneos, and Evenity, achieved double-digit volume growth [2] - Rare disease drugs contributed significantly, with sales rising 19% year over year to nearly $1.4 billion, now annualizing at over $5 billion [8] Key Drug Performance - Repatha generated revenues of $696 million, up 31% year over year, driven by a 36% increase in volume [5] - Evenity recorded sales of $518 million, up 32% year over year, benefiting from solid volume growth [6] - Prolia revenues decreased by 4% year over year to $1.12 billion due to lower pricing [7] - Blincyto sales rose 45% year over year to $384 million, driven by broad prescribing [12] Oncology and Biosimilars - Amgen's oncology portfolio grew 14% year over year, generating over $2.2 billion in sales [12] - Biosimilar sales surged 40% year over year to $661 million, with new launches contributing to growth [15][16] Established Products and Inflammation Drugs - Sales of established products decreased by 5% year over year to $533 million [22] - Otezla sales increased by 14% to $618 million, driven by volume growth [19] Future Outlook - Amgen raised its revenue and earnings outlook for 2025, expecting total revenues in the range of $35 billion to $36 billion [23] - Key drugs like Repatha, Evenity, Tezspire, and oncology drugs are expected to drive growth, although pricing pressures may offset some gains [24][25]

Industry Overview - The second-quarter earnings season for the drug and biotech sector is in full swing, with major companies like Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Amgen, Gilead Sciences, and Novo Nordisk set to announce results [1] - The earnings season began mid-July with Johnson & Johnson reporting strong results, exceeding estimates for both earnings and sales [1] Company Performance Pfizer (PFE) - Pfizer has consistently exceeded earnings expectations in the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 43.49% [6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter sales and earnings is $13.78 billion and 58 cents per share, respectively [6] - Higher sales from products like Vyndaqel and Padcev are expected to offset weaker sales from Prevnar and Ibrance [8] Eli Lilly (LLY) - Eli Lilly's performance has been mixed, exceeding earnings expectations in two of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 6.69% [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter sales and earnings stands at $14.75 billion and $5.61 per share, respectively [11] - Strong demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound is anticipated to drive top-line growth [12] Amgen (AMGN) - Amgen has shown strong performance, beating earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 8.34% [14] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter sales and earnings is $8.86 billion and $5.26 per share, respectively [14] - Sales growth is expected to be driven by products like Evenity and Repatha, despite price declines due to higher rebates [15] Gilead Sciences (GILD) - Gilead's performance has been mixed, with earnings beating estimates in three of the last four quarters, averaging a surprise of 16.48% [17] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter sales and earnings is $6.95 billion and $1.95 per share, respectively [17] - Increased demand for HIV therapies like Biktarvy is expected to boost sales [18] Novo Nordisk (NVO) - Novo Nordisk's performance has been mixed, with earnings beating estimates in one of the last four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 0.02% [20] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter sales and earnings is $11.79 billion and 93 cents per share, respectively [20] - The company lowered its 2025 sales and operating profit growth outlook due to weaker momentum in key markets for its semaglutide-based drugs [21]

Core Viewpoint - Amgen (AMGN) is expected to exceed earnings expectations for Q2 2025, with consensus estimates for sales at $8.86 billion and earnings per share at $5.25, following a previous quarter where it beat earnings expectations by 17.8% [2][9]. Sales Performance - Strong volume growth from products such as Evenity, Repatha, and Blincyto is anticipated to drive sales, although prices are expected to decline due to increased rebates [3][9]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Evenity, Repatha, and Blincyto is $478 million, $673 million, and $385 million, respectively [3]. Product Insights - Sales of RANKL antibodies, Prolia, and Xgeva are expected to benefit from volume growth, despite price declines. However, the expiration of patents for Prolia and Xgeva in the U.S. in February 2025 may lead to significant sales erosion in the latter half of 2025 [5]. - Newer drugs like Tezspire and Tavneos are projected to contribute positively to top-line growth, with consensus estimates of $320 million and $102 million, respectively [6]. Competitive Landscape - Kyprolis is facing competitive pressure, which likely affected its volume growth in Q1 and is expected to continue in Q2, with consensus estimates for sales at $370 million [7]. - Enbrel sales are likely to decline due to lower prices, while Otezla is expected to see gains from volume growth, with estimates of $534 million for Otezla and $805 million for Enbrel [8]. Recent Developments - Sales of rare disease drugs from the acquisition of Horizon are expected to improve in Q2, following lower-than-expected sales in Q1 due to inventory changes [10]. - New biosimilars launched, such as Wezlana and Pavblu, are anticipated to drive sales growth, although fluctuations in quarterly sales are expected [12][13]. Earnings Surprise History - Amgen has a strong earnings surprise history, with an average surprise of 8.34% over the last four quarters and a stock increase of 18.4% year-to-date compared to a 1.9% increase in the industry [14]. Earnings Prediction Model - The earnings prediction model indicates a likely earnings beat for Amgen, with an Earnings ESP of +1.19% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [15][17].

Group 1: Apple - Apple faces challenges due to potential tariffs from China, which could increase costs and reduce margins and earnings [3] - The company generated significant free cash flow of $98.5 billion over the trailing-12-month period, allowing for production shifts and domestic manufacturing enhancements [4] - Apple's strong brand name enables it to pass on higher manufacturing costs to consumers without losing market share [5] - The services segment, with over 2 billion devices and more than 1 billion paid subscriptions, is a key growth area that generates higher margins than hardware [6] - Apple is investing in fintech initiatives like Apple Pay, which are expected to yield returns in the future [7] - Despite a 19% decline in shares this year, Apple remains attractive for long-term growth investors due to its competitive advantages and culture of innovation [8] Group 2: Amgen - Amgen is pursuing new blockbuster medicines, but faced a setback with its weight management drug MariTide in a phase 2 clinical trial [9] - MariTide showed an average weight loss of about 20% after 52 weeks, with a convenient monthly dosing schedule that could appeal to patients [10] - The company reported a 9% year-over-year revenue growth to $8.1 billion in the first quarter, with adjusted earnings per share rising 24% to $4.90 [11] - Amgen has a robust pipeline with several dozen programs that are expected to lead to new approvals and label expansions [12] - The company has increased its dividend by 750% since initiating payouts in 2011, with a current forward yield of over 3.4% [12] - Despite recent underperformance, Amgen's solid underlying business could provide strong returns and consistent dividend growth for long-term investors [13]

Core Viewpoint - Amgen's stock has faced a decline of 10.4% over the past three months, largely attributed to macroeconomic uncertainties and trade tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Environment - The stock market has experienced volatility due to President Trump's tariffs and China's retaliatory measures, although a recent deal has eased tensions temporarily [2]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs continues to impact economic growth, despite pharmaceuticals being exempt from initial tariffs [3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Amgen's revenues grew by 9% year over year in Q1 2025, driven by increased patient demand for innovative medicines [4]. - The company is facing declining revenues from oncology biosimilars and established products like Enbrel, with competitive pressures affecting sales [5]. - Key revenue drivers include older medicines like Prolia and Repatha, as well as new drugs such as Tavneos and Tezspire, alongside rare disease drugs from the acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics [5]. Group 3: Drug Pipeline and Approvals - Amgen is evaluating several drugs for additional indications, which could enhance revenue growth, with Uplizna recently approved for IgG4-related disease [6][7]. - The company has invested significantly in M&A to diversify its pipeline, including the development of MariTide, a novel obesity treatment [8][10]. - Clinical studies for MariTide have shown promising results, and further studies are ongoing [9][10]. Group 4: Biosimilars and Market Strategy - Amgen launched several new biosimilars in 2025, generating substantial sales, including Wezlana and Pavblu, which contributed to a 35% year-over-year increase in biosimilar sales [13][15]. - The company is actively pursuing additional biosimilar approvals to mitigate the impact of upcoming patent expirations for key drugs [15][16]. Group 5: Financial Outlook - Amgen's stock has outperformed the industry and S&P 500, with a year-to-date increase of 7.3% [18]. - The stock is reasonably valued, trading at a price/earnings ratio of 13.12, lower than the industry average [21]. - Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have seen upward revisions, indicating positive market sentiment [24][26]. Group 6: Long-term Growth Potential - The company is expected to maintain long-term revenue growth driven by strong performance from key drugs and innovative medicines [27]. - Despite initial data from MariTide studies being below expectations, it holds potential as a significant product for Amgen [27].

Core Insights - The current global trade environment is marked by rising tariffs and tensions, prompting investors to seek stability in defensive sectors that are less impacted by economic fluctuations [1][2] - Large-cap biotech companies with a strong domestic focus, such as Gilead Sciences, Amgen, and AbbVie, are gaining attention as potential defensive investments due to their reliance on the U.S. market [2][3] Biotech Companies Overview - Gilead Sciences derives approximately 70.0% of its Q1 2025 product revenue from the U.S., Amgen generates about 74.7% of its Q4 2024 product sales domestically, and AbbVie obtains roughly 74.8% of its Q1 2025 net revenue from the United States [3][4] - The significant concentration of domestic sales provides a buffer against retaliatory tariffs and economic downturns, as demand for essential medicines tends to be inelastic [4][5] Financial Performance and Stability - Gilead Sciences has a market capitalization of around $132.66 billion, with a year-to-date stock gain of 15.3% and a low Beta of approximately 0.32, indicating defensive characteristics [11][13] - Amgen, valued at approximately $156.41 billion, reported a positive year-to-date performance of +11.6% and a Beta of 0.59, suggesting lower volatility [15][16] - AbbVie has a market capitalization of roughly $345.22 billion, achieving a 9.8% operational revenue increase in Q1 2025, with a forward P/E ratio of about 15.85 [18][19] Policy Environment - Recent U.S. government policy shifts are creating a supportive environment for domestic biotech companies, focusing on onshoring and reshoring manufacturing to enhance supply chain resilience [6][8] - Strategies include financial incentives, direct government investments, and prioritizing domestically produced medicines through 'Buy American' initiatives [7][8] Investment Appeal - The combination of strong cash flows, healthy dividends, and low Beta scores makes U.S.-focused biotech companies appealing during uncertain times [21][20] - Analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus on Gilead and AbbVie, while Amgen is rated as a Hold, reflecting confidence in their defensive qualities amidst market volatility [11][19][15]

Core Viewpoint - Amgen is set to report its first-quarter 2025 results on May 1, with expectations of strong sales driven by volume growth in key products, although pricing pressures may impact overall revenue [1][4]. Sales Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter sales is $7.96 billion, with earnings expected at $4.16 per share [1]. - Specific sales estimates for key products include Evenity at $406 million, Repatha at $616 million, Kyprolis at $381 million, and Blincyto at $333 million [2]. Patent Expiration Impact - Patents for Prolia and Xgeva expired in February 2025 in the U.S., leading to anticipated significant sales erosion due to biosimilar competition, with estimates of $990 million for Prolia and $542 million for Xgeva [3]. New Product Contributions - Newer drugs like Tezspire and Tavneos are expected to contribute positively to top-line growth, alongside the successful launch of Imdelltra for advanced small cell lung cancer [4]. Declining Sales of Established Products - Sales of Enbrel and Otezla are projected to decline due to price reductions and historical trends related to benefit plan changes and increased co-pay expenses [5][6]. Biosimilars Performance - Increased competition is expected to negatively impact revenues from oncology biosimilars, while sales of Amjevita/Amgevita are likely to have increased [7]. - Amgen launched biosimilars Wezlana and Pavblu, with investors keenly observing their sales performance [8]. Operating Margin Expectations - Amgen anticipates the lowest operating margin of the year at around 42% for the first quarter, with R&D costs expected to rise while SG&A costs as a percentage of sales are projected to decline [9]. Earnings Surprise History - Amgen has a strong earnings surprise history, beating estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 5.23% [10]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for Amgen, with an Earnings ESP of -0.05% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment presents a favorable opportunity for investors to consider solid dividend stocks, which tend to be more resilient than non-dividend-paying companies amid market volatility and potential recession [1]. Group 1: Dividend Stocks Overview - Four recommended dividend-paying stocks during the current market sell-off are AbbVie, Amgen, Bristol Myers Squibb, and Zoetis [2]. Group 2: AbbVie - AbbVie is recognized for its strong position in immunology, despite facing challenges such as a patent cliff and clinical setbacks [3]. - The company has increased its 2027 revenue guidance for key products Skyrizi and Rinvoq by $4 billion to over $31 billion, indicating strong growth potential [4]. - AbbVie has a robust pipeline and a history of increasing dividends for 53 consecutive years, with a forward yield of 3.9%, significantly above the S&P 500 average of 1.3% [5]. Group 3: Amgen - Amgen's shares faced a decline due to underperformance of its weight loss candidate, MariTide, but the company has a strong portfolio with over 10 blockbuster drugs [6]. - Key growth drivers include asthma medicine Tezspire and FDA-approved Tepezza for thyroid eye disease, supporting a strong revenue outlook [7]. - Since initiating dividends in 2011, Amgen has increased payouts by 750%, with a forward yield exceeding 3.5% [8]. Group 4: Bristol Myers Squibb - Bristol Myers is facing significant patent cliffs, particularly for its best-sellers Opdivo and Eliquis, but has managed to secure new approvals to mitigate revenue loss [9]. - Newer medicines like Reblozyl and Opdualag are expected to drive future sales growth [10]. - The company has increased its dividend by nearly 68% over the past decade, offering a yield of 5.1% [11]. Group 5: Zoetis - Zoetis, a leader in animal health, started the year with disappointing guidance but has a strong portfolio with 15 products generating over $100 million in annual sales [12]. - The company is expected to overcome current challenges with its key product Apoquel and has new approvals in the pipeline to drive growth [13]. - Zoetis has increased its dividends by about 500% over the past decade, although its yield is 1.4% [14].