Merck & Co (NYSE:MRK) FY 2025 Conference December 03, 2025 01:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsChirfi Guindo - CMOEliav Barr - SVP, Head of Global Clinical Development and Chief Medical OfficerConference Call ParticipantsGeoff Meacham - AnalystMary Kate Davis - AnalystGeoff MeachamThe second day of the Citi Global Healthcare Conference. My name is Geoff Meacham. I'm the Senior Biopharma Analyst and Kate Davis. With me as well from my team here on stage. We're thrilled to have Merck in this session. We have Elia ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The global market for Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) drugs is expected to reach $37 billion by 2030, with major pharmaceutical companies investing in this area [4][26] - There is a significant unmet clinical need for new therapies due to the complexity of IBD mechanisms and the high percentage of patients who do not respond to initial treatments [4][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of new targets and mechanisms in drug development, particularly focusing on TL1A, which has garnered interest from multiple multinational corporations (MNCs) [4][32] Summary by Sections IBD Treatment Overview - IBD includes Ulcerative Colitis (UC) and Crohn's Disease (CD), affecting over 3 million patients in the US and Europe, with no current cure available [4][10] - The market for IBD drugs is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.88% from $23.26 billion in 2022 to $37 billion by 2030 [26][29] Market Dynamics - The sales proportion of TNF inhibitors is declining, while IL-23 inhibitors and JAK inhibitors are increasing in sales [4][29] - Ustekinumab is expected to contribute approximately $7.8 billion to the market by 2024, while Vedolizumab is projected to reach $6.107 billion [4][29] Clinical Needs and Drug Development - There is a pressing need for new therapies as up to 30% of patients do not respond to initial treatments, and 40% lose response over time [4][18] - The report suggests focusing on new targets and mechanisms, including companies like Abivax, Chenxin Pharmaceutical, and others for potential investment opportunities [4][32] Long-term Investment Strategy - The report recommends a strategic focus on leading innovative drug companies and those involved in the development of new therapies for IBD, highlighting companies such as Innovent Biologics, BeiGene, and others [4][32] - The report also notes the potential for significant market transactions in the IBD space, with several deals exceeding $5 billion in value [4][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [1][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the clinical efficacy of new treatments for Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD), emphasizing the need for innovative therapies due to existing medications' limitations [2][11]. - There is a growing global value for domestic innovative drugs, with several companies achieving significant milestones in clinical data and partnerships [3][4]. - The report suggests continuous monitoring of companies involved in IBD research and those with high-quality innovation capabilities [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The overall A-share market increased by 1.42%, with the pharmaceutical sector rising by 1.13%, indicating a weaker performance compared to the broader market [1]. - The TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the pharmaceutical sector stands at 34.41x, which is at the 72.02 percentile of the past five years [1]. IBD Clinical Data - IBD is characterized by chronic inflammation, with a significant unmet clinical need, as evidenced by the rising patient numbers globally [11]. - Innovative treatment options are emerging, including TYK2 small molecules and IL-23 antibodies, showing preliminary advantages in clinical trials [2][11]. Company Profit Forecasts and Ratings - Key companies such as Mindray Medical, WuXi AppTec, and others are rated as "Outperform," with projected net profits for 2024 ranging from 1.4 billion to 116.7 billion CNY [4]. - The report provides detailed profit forecasts and PE ratios for various companies, indicating a positive outlook for those with innovative capabilities [4][5]. Recommended Companies - Companies to watch in the IBD space include 3SBio, EdiGene, and Innovent Biologics, which are actively developing new therapies [2][3]. - The report also highlights companies with strong innovation potential, such as Kelun-Biotech and CanSino Biologics, suggesting they are well-positioned for future growth [3][4].