Core Insights - The U.S. dollar remains stable as investors await the Federal Reserve's policy announcement and Chair Jerome Powell's comments [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Expectations - A 25-basis-point rate cut is anticipated with nearly 90% probability, with expectations for two additional cuts next year [2] - Speculation suggests the Fed may adopt a cautious stance regarding further rate cuts, which could negatively impact the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Any indication from Powell that the Committee is leaning towards a more dovish policy could lead to a decline in both the dollar and long-term yields [3]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is under scrutiny as President Trump seeks to replace Chair Jerome Powell, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggesting a potential announcement before Christmas [1][6] - Ray Dalio warns of a "debt death spiral" due to the U.S. national debt reaching approximately $37.86 trillion, which could lead to a decline in the value of the dollar and bonds if inflation is not controlled [3][6] - Dalio draws parallels between the current economic climate and the early 1970s, highlighting concerns over inflation and the effectiveness of fiat currencies as stores of wealth [4][8] Economic Conditions - The U.S. Dollar Index fell by 10.8% in the first half of 2025, marking its worst performance since 1973, while inflation continues to erode purchasing power [6][8] - Experts are warning of 'stagflation,' characterized by moderate GDP growth, high inflation, and rising unemployment rates [7][8] Investment Strategies - Dalio advocates for gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty, suggesting a portfolio allocation of 15% to gold due to its historical performance during market downturns [10][11] - Jeffrey Gundlach supports a significant allocation to gold, calling it an "insurance policy" amid ongoing dollar weakness [12] Real Estate and Alternative Investments - Real estate is highlighted as a strong hedge against inflation, with property values and rental income typically rising during inflationary periods [16] - Crowdfunding platforms like Arrived and Homeshares offer accessible ways for investors to engage in real estate without the burdens of direct property management [19][21] - Art investment is emerging as an attractive option for diversification, with platforms like Masterworks allowing investors to buy shares in high-value artworks [24][26]

Core Viewpoint - The Singapore dollar remains stable against the U.S. dollar as market participants anticipate the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision [1] Group 1 - The Singapore dollar's performance is closely monitored in the Asian session [1] - Market participants are awaiting the Federal Reserve's rate decision scheduled for next week [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar remains stable despite increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, but experiences a decline with the rise in odds of Kevin Hassett being nominated as the next Fed Chair [1] Group 1 - The U.S. dollar's steadiness is attributed to surging odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - The dollar stumbles as the likelihood of Kevin Hassett's nomination for Fed Chair increases [1]

By Alun John and Naomi Rovnick LONDON (Reuters) -Just months after a U.S. tariff shock whacked the dollar, a rush by overseas investors to protect U.S. holdings from the sliding currency has slowed sharply - a vote of confidence that's helping the greenback recover from its worst rout in years. While analysts say investor hedging is higher than ​it has been historically, such activity has slowed from the period immediately after the April 2 "Liberation Day", when U.S. President Donald Trump announced swe ...

CONCLUDED Stock Market News From Nov. 20, 2025: Nasdaq Sinks 2.2% as Nvidia Bump Evaporates Last Updated: 16 hours ago Dollar Rises on Reduced Bets For December Rate Cut By Renae Dyer, Dow Jones Newswires The U.S. dollar was rising as the market scaled back expectations for another Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month. This followed news that the full October U.S. nonfarm payrolls report won't be published due to the government shutdown. The November data will include some October figures but won't ...

Market Reaction to U.S. Tariffs - The market's reaction to President Trump's tariff reversal on over 200 food products was muted, attributed to ongoing cost-of-living issues [1][14] - The U.S. dollar index rose slightly to 99.37, despite a broad selloff in U.S. stocks and bonds last week [6][14] Currency Movements - The Swiss franc remained around a one-month high at 0.7941 per dollar, supported by concerns over recent stock market selloffs [2][14] - The euro decreased by 0.11% to $1.1607, while the Australian dollar fell 0.15% to $0.6527, and the New Zealand dollar dropped 0.12% to $0.5673 [5][14] U.S. Economic Data Expectations - There is heightened market interest in upcoming U.S. economic data releases, particularly the September nonfarm payrolls report, due to a data vacuum lasting over 40 days [4][14] - Current market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month have decreased to just over 40%, down from over 60% earlier in the month [6][14] UK Economic Concerns - The British pound traded 0.11% lower at $1.3161, influenced by Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' announcement of no plans to raise income tax rates, which raised concerns about fiscal shortfalls [8][14] - Reeves is expected to need to raise tens of billions of pounds to meet fiscal targets in the upcoming November 26 budget, with financial markets viewing income tax increases as a primary solution [9][14] Japanese Economic Data - Japan's economy contracted an annualized 1.8% in the July-September quarter, marking the first decline in six quarters, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports [11][14]

Market Sentiment - Risk-off sentiment has been pervasive across markets, leading to a stronger USD against most currencies, with the exception of JPY [1][9] - The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar have been particularly weak, with the latter reaching a nearly seven-month low following a rise in the unemployment rate [9][10] Currency Performance - The U.S. dollar index was steady at 100.18, having reached as high as 100.25 for the first time since August 1 [5][10] - Sterling is near a seven-month low after UK finance minister Rachel Reeves hinted at broad tax rises in her upcoming budget [1][2] - The New Zealand dollar fell to $0.5635 after a 1.2% drop on Tuesday, marking a seven-month low [7][10] Stock Market Trends - Selling pressure dominated Asian stock markets, with Japan's Nikkei dropping 2.4% and South Korea's KOSPI plunging 4.8% [4][9] Economic Indicators - The ongoing government shutdown in the U.S. has halted the flow of macroeconomic data, increasing focus on private ADP payrolls [6][10] - The Reserve Bank of Australia's recent policy statement was not perceived as hawkish, contributing to the weakness of the Australian dollar [8][10] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin experienced a 6.1% decline on Tuesday, reaching its lowest level since June 22, trading around $100,317 [8][10]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - A historical pattern links U.S. dollar breakouts to Bitcoin market tops, creating a divide among investors regarding Bitcoin's short- to medium-term future [1][2] - Bitcoin is sensitive to macroeconomic changes, with a strong U.S. dollar attracting investors to safer assets, leading to declines in risky assets like Bitcoin [3] - The dollar index (DXY) has been below 100 since Q2 2025, raising questions about whether Bitcoin is forming a top [5] Group 2: Institutional Accumulation - Institutions are accumulating Bitcoin at an unprecedented rate through exchange-traded funds and treasury assets, driven by the belief in the "debasement trade" [2] - The introduction of institutional capital has changed market dynamics, with $150 to $170 billion in spot ETF assets now influencing the market [6] - Daily volatility of Bitcoin has decreased by 57% from 4.2% pre-ETF to 1.8% post-ETF, indicating a shift towards price-insensitive long-term holders [6] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Jamie Coutts highlights that the strength of the dollar index has historically marked cycle peaks for Bitcoin, suggesting a potential correlation [4] - Derek Lim notes that the historical inverse correlation between Bitcoin and the dollar holds less than 30% of the time, indicating new market dynamics [5]

Core Insights - The narrative of investors fleeing the dollar due to fears of currency debasement is contradicted by actual market data, particularly in the bond and foreign exchange markets [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metals have seen significant gains this year, with gold increasing by 50%, while silver and platinum have experienced even larger increases [2]. - Despite the rise in precious metals, the bond market shows stability, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield falling to 3.93%, its lowest level in over a year, and down nearly 60 basis points for the year [4]. Group 2: Inflation Expectations - The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate, indicating long-term inflation expectations, dropped to 2.275%, the lowest since June, while the 30-year TIPS breakeven rate reached 2.21%, its lowest since May [5]. Group 3: Currency Stability - The U.S. dollar, despite a poor first-half performance in 2025, has remained stable since April, with the dollar index ending last week close to its six-month average and outperforming G10 currency peers over the past month [5].