美元指数周三小幅反弹至98.50下方，周四欧洲早盘横盘整理。欧元/美元先跌至1.1700附近，美盘回升 至1.1745；英镑/美元受英国疲软通胀数据压制，一度逼近1.3300，目前交投于1.3365附近；澳元/美元延 续弱势至0.6600附近，美元/日元关注156.00阻力，纽元/美元小幅回落至0.5760。全球央行方面，欧洲央 行维持政策不变，拉加德将于当地时间13:45发表讲话；英国央行预计降息25个基点，日本央行利率决 议定于周五公布。 市场核心焦点为北京时间今晚公布的美国11月CPI。受政府停摆影响，本次报告不包含月度CPI及10月 完整数据，因此分析主要集中在年度同比。市场一致预期显示，11月整体CPI同比上涨3.1%，核心CPI 同比上涨3.0%。部分机构认为假日折扣可能短期压低商品价格，但阶段性影响明显。道明证券预计能 源价格回升可能推高整体通胀，而核心通胀维持稳定。数据结构将直接影响美元定价及市场对美联储1 月政策的预期。LSEG统计显示，联邦基金利率期货暗示美联储在下一份非农数据后降息概率升至 31%，但高度依赖数据结果。 CPI公布前，黄金交易逻辑以事件博弈为主，短线波动更多反映仓位调整与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US Dollar Index increased despite a 25-basis-point rate cut, indicating that the cut was anticipated prior to the decision, while Chair Powell's comments shifted the policy outlook to a more data-dependent approach [1] Currency Movements - DXY approached a significant resistance level, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD declining towards recent lows; USD/JPY gained further as the BoJ did not indicate imminent rate hikes [2] - Commodity currencies showed mixed performance, with CAD benefiting from stronger crude prices and a resilient US risk tone, while AUD and NZD lagged due to cautious sentiment in Asia [2] Market Signals - Cross-asset signals supported the dollar's strength, with US equities achieving a third consecutive weekly gain and closing a sixth positive month, driven by strong performances from major companies like Alphabet and Amazon [3] - The trade war climate improved following President Trump's trip to Asia and a truce on rare earths/minerals with President Xi [3] Currency Pairs Analysis - EUR/AUD is forming a broadening megaphone pattern, potentially indicating a long-term top, with a recent lower high and a retest of previous lows; a break below 1.75600 could signal sustained weakness [4][6] - AUD/SGD has rebounded from 0.83420 support and is testing previous resistance at 0.55520; a breakout could lead to a medium-term rally towards 0.87260 [7][9] Economic Indicators and Outlook - The ongoing government shutdown affects near-term economic indicators, with focus on ISM surveys, FED speeches, and ADP data; Powell's comments on a December cut suggest that a strong ISM report could bolster dollar strength and pressure EUR/USD towards October lows [10] - Upcoming economic events include US ISM manufacturing and services, ADP data, CHF CPI, and central bank meetings for RBA and BoE, with traders closely monitoring AUD and GBP for potential volatility [11]

Market Overview - Risk assets experienced significant volatility, with equities initially rising despite a U.S. government shutdown, only to decline sharply after President Trump's announcement of 100% tariff hikes on Chinese imports, resulting in the worst weekly loss for major indices since late May, with the Dow Jones dropping as much as 2.7% [1] - The dollar strengthened broadly due to safe-haven demand and a lack of U.S. data, which typically suppresses volatility [2] - Precious metals, particularly gold, saw a notable increase, surpassing $4,000 per ounce after previously clearing $3,000 earlier in the year [2] Currency Movements - The Japanese yen initially weakened as USD/JPY surged over 2% to 150.47, influenced by Japan's ruling LDP selecting a leader aligned with Abenomics-style policies, but later strengthened as equities declined [3][4] - The euro faced pressure against the dollar and pound amid political instability in France, with the US Dollar Index rising to 98.11 [4] Currency Pairs in Focus - GBP/AUD broke a long-term downtrend, rising sharply against the AUD and surpassing resistance at 2.05250, indicating potential for further bullish movement [5][7] - The Singapore dollar reached its highest point against the yen year-to-date, with a pullback observed towards former resistance at 116.280, which could present a buying opportunity if it holds as support [8][10] Upcoming Events - The upcoming earnings season is anticipated to provide market orientation, with major banks set to report Q3 results, while the ongoing government shutdown may delay macroeconomic updates [11][12] - Market participants will closely monitor trade war developments and central bank updates, with several speeches scheduled throughout the week [12]

Market Overview - US stocks are expected to open lower following the government shutdown, with stock futures showing declines across major indices [1][4] - The S&P 500 is down 0.4% at 6,712 points, the Dow Jones is down 0.2% at 46,585 points, and the Nasdaq is down 0.5% at 24,788 points [4] Economic Impact - Historical trends indicate that markets typically remain resilient during US government shutdowns, as evidenced by positive closes for major indices prior to the shutdown [2] - The shutdown is anticipated to delay the release of key economic reports, including the US nonfarm payrolls, which are crucial for assessing labor market conditions [2][3] - Analysts express concerns that prolonged shutdowns could lead to significant economic disruptions and complicate Federal Reserve policy decisions due to delayed inflation data [3] Commodity Market - Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, reached a record high of $3,870 per ounce before experiencing a slight retreat [1][4] - The US Dollar Index has decreased by 0.2%, currently standing at 97.57 points [4]