Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's impressive earnings report did not lead to the expected market rally, instead resulting in a significant market downturn, highlighting the sensitivity of high-valuation stocks to interest rate expectations [1][5][11]. Financial Performance - Nvidia reported Q3 2026 fiscal year revenue of $57 billion, a year-over-year increase of approximately 62% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of about 22% [2]. - The data center business generated $51.2 billion in revenue, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 66% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 25% [2]. - The GAAP gross margin was around 73%, indicating strong profitability [2]. - Nvidia's management provided a Q4 revenue guidance of approximately $65 billion, significantly above market expectations [2]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, futures and after-hours stock prices rose, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq initially showing strong gains [3]. - However, the market reversed course within half a day, leading to a decline in major indices and Nvidia's stock price [4][5]. Economic Indicators - The release of the delayed September U.S. non-farm payroll report showed mixed results, with job additions of approximately 119,000, exceeding expectations of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% [6][7]. - This data suggested a robust economy, which tempered expectations for immediate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7]. Technical Factors - A significant amount of options expired, triggering mechanical selling pressure in the market [9]. - The market experienced a broader risk reduction and deleveraging, affecting not only U.S. stocks but also cryptocurrencies [10]. Investment Insights - The day’s events indicated a re-evaluation of valuations and positions rather than a fundamental decline in the AI sector [11]. - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced approach to AI investments, diversifying across various assets rather than concentrating on a single stock [14].

周四亚洲时段，黄金价格保持温和上行，盘中多次在4110美元附近获得支撑。由于美国9月非农就业数 据因政府停摆而推迟公布，市场在缺乏关键指引的背景下重新定价经济前景，避险买盘使贵金属维持强 势。而外汇市场方面，美联储最新会议纪要偏向鹰派，使欧元持续承压，欧元/美元延续区间弱势整 理。 汇价走势主要跟随美元利率预期变化，短线风险依旧集中在1.1500下方区域。 美元指数（DXY） 就业报告仍是影响方向的关键变量，在数据落地前，波动度可能维持偏高。 当前市场在"鹰派纪要"与"数据延迟"之间来回权衡，美元维持上行倾向，欧元承压，而黄金依旧受避险 情绪支撑。即将补发的9月非农将成为主导欧美货币与贵金属方向的核心变量，市场情绪短线或随数据 出现明显波动。 交易员情绪主要受两条脉络影响。一方面，最新FOMC会议纪要显示决策层内部虽然观点分歧明显，但 整体语气仍偏向紧缩，多数官员并不支持在12月进一步宽松，市场对降息的预期因此从约42%下调至三 成左右。另一方面，停摆导致的就业数据延迟发布增加了判断难度，9月非农将在周四晚间补发，短期 内可能直接左右对12月政策路径的重新定价。事件叠加使避险需求和利率预期不断调整。 黄金自周 ...

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry, a well-known short-seller, has announced the closure of his fund, Scion Asset Management, raising questions about his market outlook and signaling potential concerns about the current state of the AI and tech stock market bubble [1][8]. Group 1: Michael Burry's Actions - Burry has been betting against U.S. tech stocks, particularly those involved in AI, believing that the market is experiencing an unsustainable bubble similar to the 2000 internet bubble [6][10]. - The closure of his fund means he will no longer be required to publicly disclose his holdings, allowing him to operate privately [9]. - Burry's past experiences during the 2008 financial crisis, where he faced significant pressure and skepticism from investors, may have influenced his decision to exit the market quietly this time [9][10]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The U.S. stock market has recently faced significant declines, with major indices experiencing their worst performance since October 10, 2023, driven by a sell-off in tech stocks [10][12]. - Valuation data indicates that major U.S. indices are at high levels, with the Nasdaq index showing a year-to-date increase of 18.43% and a PE ratio of 41.04, placing it in the 65.43 percentile [14]. - The market is currently under pressure from dual factors: liquidity shortages and unstable interest rate expectations, which have contributed to the recent downturn [20][21]. Group 3: Liquidity and Interest Rate Expectations - A liquidity shortage has worsened due to a 44-day government shutdown, freezing funds that would typically enter the market, while increased U.S. debt issuance has further drained cash from the system [17]. - Recent shifts in interest rate expectations have also impacted the market, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut dropping significantly due to internal disagreements among Fed officials [18][19]. - The combination of liquidity issues and fluctuating interest rate expectations has created a challenging environment for tech stocks, leading to increased volatility and investor caution [20][21].

Global Monetary Policy Shift Tracking - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% in September 2025, aligning with market expectations. Seven out of 26 major economies tracked have cut rates, with the European Central Bank (ECB) maintaining a hawkish stance despite not changing rates for the third consecutive time [2][11] - There is uncertainty regarding further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year. Initially, there was a strong expectation for cuts in October and December, but this has since cooled, with only a 70% probability for a December cut as of late October [3][17] - China's real interest rate has slightly decreased from 3% at the end of September to 2.9% in October 2025, remaining relatively high compared to 13 other economies [3][26] Global Liquidity Tracking - The Federal Reserve's reserve balance has decreased to $2.83 trillion, with a nominal GDP ratio of approximately 12%, indicating that redundant liquidity is nearly exhausted. The ONRRP balance has significantly shrunk to $19.5 billion [4][30] - Various liquidity spreads have shown significant increases, with the EFFR-IOER spread narrowing from -7 basis points to a minimum of -3 basis points, reflecting tightening liquidity conditions [5][37] - The U.S. Treasury bond bid-ask spread has remained stable, indicating that the bond market has not experienced significant widening despite the liquidity tightening from the Fed's balance sheet reduction [7][43] Financial Market Liquidity Tracking - The Libor-OIS spread has risen sharply, reaching a maximum of 110 basis points, indicating tightening liquidity conditions in the U.S. dollar market. However, offshore dollar swap points remain low, suggesting ample liquidity in offshore markets [8][45] - Credit risk premiums in the U.S. have remained low despite recent regional banking credit events, with investment-grade credit default swap (CDS) prices showing only slight increases [8][51]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in gold prices, despite strong U.S. employment data, highlights the dominance of safe-haven demand over traditional market logic, which typically sees gold prices pressured by positive economic indicators [1][6][12]. Market Performance - On Wednesday, gold prices increased by 1.2%, reaching $3977.94 per ounce, while December gold futures rose by 0.7% to $3989.80 per ounce [3]. - The entire precious metals sector showed synchronized gains, with silver up 1.9% at $47.98 per ounce, platinum rising 1% to $1550.60 per ounce, and palladium surging 2.2% to $1421.96 per ounce [3]. Employment Data Impact - The ADP report indicated an increase of 42,000 private sector jobs, significantly above the expected 28,000, which typically would suggest a stronger economy and potentially higher interest rates, negatively impacting gold [4][8]. - Despite the positive employment data, gold prices rose due to a shift in market sentiment towards risk aversion, as investors moved funds from the stock market to gold [6][12]. Market Sentiment and Risk Aversion - The decline in U.S. stock prices from recent highs raised concerns about overvaluation, prompting a shift in capital towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold [6][12]. - Analysts noted that the current market environment, characterized by stock volatility and geopolitical uncertainties, has reinforced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [12][14]. Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - Following a recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, expectations for further cuts have diminished, with the probability of a December rate cut now at 70%, down from over 90% [8]. - The reduction in rate cut expectations has not deterred gold's price increase, further emphasizing the prevailing safe-haven demand [8][12]. Trade Policy Uncertainty - The U.S. Supreme Court's hearings on the legality of tariffs could impact future trade policies, adding another layer of uncertainty that supports gold prices [9]. Conclusion - The recent performance of gold amidst favorable employment data serves as a reminder for investors to maintain a balanced asset allocation, particularly in volatile market conditions [14].

Global Monetary Policy Trends - In October 2025, among 26 major economies tracked, 7 economies cut interest rates, with the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%[1][8] - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its rates for the third consecutive time but signaled a hawkish stance, while the Bank of Japan kept its rates unchanged but expressed a dovish outlook[1][8] - Market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have fluctuated, with a 70% probability of a December cut as of late October, indicating uncertainty about additional cuts within the year[2][20] U.S. Liquidity Tracking - As of October 29, 2025, the Federal Reserve's reserve balance decreased to $2.83 trillion, representing approximately 12% of nominal GDP, indicating that excess liquidity is nearly exhausted[3][9] - The overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) balance significantly shrank to $19.5 billion, with usage almost depleted, reflecting tight liquidity conditions[3][9] - The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) to interest on excess reserves (IOER) spread narrowed from -7 basis points to a minimum of -3 basis points, showing tightening liquidity due to balance sheet reduction[4][36] Global Financial Market Liquidity - The bid-ask spread for U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds remained stable between 0.19 and 0.39 basis points, indicating that liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market has not significantly deteriorated despite the Fed's balance sheet reduction[5][44] - Credit risk premiums in the U.S. remained low, with credit default swap (CDS) prices for U.S. corporate bonds showing limited impact from recent regional banking credit events[5][44] - The Libor-OIS spread increased significantly, reaching a peak of 110 basis points, indicating rising liquidity premiums in the market[5][44]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Canadian dollar is under pressure due to weak employment data and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada [1][2] - The Canadian employment numbers for September showed an increase of 60,400, significantly above the expected 5,000 and a recovery from the previous decline of 65,500 [1] - Market expectations suggest a 70% probability of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in the upcoming meeting on October 29, with implied rates indicating a potential decrease of nearly 25 basis points by year-end [1] Group 2 - The USD/CAD exchange rate has shown bullish momentum after consolidating around 1.3900 for nearly two weeks, driven by rising political uncertainty outside the U.S. [2] - The currency pair has broken above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), extending the upward trend that began from the June low of 1.3538 to a six-month high of 1.4032 [2] - A critical level to watch is the 1.4050 mark; if the pair can maintain above this level, it may advance towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.4165, with further potential to challenge the long-term upward trend line around 1.4230 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.4313 [2]

Group 1: Global Monetary Policy Tracking - The Federal Reserve has restarted its rate cut cycle, lowering rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25% in September 2025, aligning with market expectations. The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its rates, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has signaled a more hawkish stance by opposing the current rate policy and announcing a reduction in ETF and REIT holdings [2][9][11] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates three times by the end of 2025, with a projected benchmark rate of approximately 3.75% by then. The ECB's rate cut expectations have diminished, with a current forecast suggesting no further cuts this year. The BOJ is anticipated to raise rates once by the end of the year [3][15][16] - In China, nominal interest rates have risen from 1.7% at the end of July to 1.88% by late September 2025, with real interest rates also increasing from 3.1% to 3.3% during the same period, placing China among the higher real interest rates globally [19][21] Group 2: Global Liquidity Tracking - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction has led to significant liquidity tightening, with a reduction of $357.7 billion in reserves since the start of the tapering process. The overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) balance has dropped sharply to $29.2 billion, indicating a near exhaustion of this liquidity tool [4][23] - The SOFR-EFFR spread has turned positive, reflecting a tightening liquidity environment for non-bank institutions. The spread reached a high of 0.18%, indicating that borrowing costs for these institutions have increased significantly [5][31] - U.S. Treasury liquidity has deteriorated, with the bid-ask spread for 10-year Treasuries fluctuating between 0.19 and 0.58 basis points, while credit spreads remain low, suggesting a mixed liquidity environment across different asset classes [6][37][40]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently fluctuating around 0.6520 against the US dollar (USD), with upcoming employment data expected to significantly influence interest rate expectations from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) [1] Economic Indicators - Australia's GDP growth rate for the second quarter exceeded expectations, indicating a stronger economic performance [1] - The employment data for August, to be released on September 18, is anticipated to be a critical factor affecting RBA's interest rate decisions [1] Labor Market Insights - The RBA has indicated that the pace of cash rate cuts will largely depend on the labor market conditions [1] - The July labor market report showed robust growth in full-time employment, supporting a gradual rate cut path by the RBA [1] Currency Fluctuation - The AUD/USD exchange rate has remained anchored within a narrow range of 0.6400 to 0.6600 for several months [1]

Core Insights - The report from Monex Europe analysts suggests that if the non-farm payroll data released on Friday exceeds expectations, the US dollar may receive some support [1] - It is anticipated that the August data will indicate a relatively stable labor market, with a higher likelihood of stronger-than-expected data [1] - This situation could shift market focus back to inflation risks, as the August inflation data will be released before the Federal Reserve's September meeting [1] - If the Federal Reserve places greater emphasis on inflation risks, it may not implement interest rate cuts throughout the year, leading to an adjustment in market interest rate expectations and a strengthening of the US dollar [1]