Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **gold market** and its dynamics in relation to **U.S. economic policies** and **global demand trends** for gold, particularly focusing on **gold ETFs** and **central bank purchases**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Gold ETF Demand and Price Movement**: In the first half of 2024, global gold ETF demand led to an increase of approximately **397 tons**, reflecting a core avoidance of U.S. tariff policy risks, especially after the April tariff adjustments [1][4] 2. **Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies**: The fluctuating U.S. gold bar tariff policies significantly affected spot trade and market sentiment, with concerns about physical delivery risks on the COMEX exchange arising in early August [1][5] 3. **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions**: The Federal Reserve is expected to consider a **preventive rate cut** in September, which may not be substantial but could influence short-term gold market dynamics [1][6][10] 4. **Speculative Positions and Inflation Expectations**: Speculative positions have less impact on gold prices this year, correlating positively with long-term U.S. inflation expectations, contrasting with previous years [1][7] 5. **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Central bank gold purchases totaled approximately **415 tons** in the first half of the year, a **21% decrease** year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in demand that has affected price trends [1][7] 6. **Market Adjustments and Volatility**: The gold market has entered a period of adjustment and low volatility, with ETF inflows decreasing significantly in July compared to earlier months [1][4][8] Additional Important Insights 1. **Geopolitical Factors**: The Asian market has become a significant contributor to gold demand following tariff changes, but demand has cooled since May due to tariff reductions [1][4] 2. **Historical Context of Gold Demand**: The current situation mirrors past periods of heightened gold demand during geopolitical tensions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][4] 3. **Future Outlook on Gold Prices**: The potential for further upward movement in gold prices exists if U.S. economic conditions worsen, but the sustainability of such trends remains uncertain [1][11][12] 4. **Market Sentiment and Trading Opportunities**: The current economic data and interest rate expectations may create short-term trading opportunities, but long-term risks related to U.S. economic growth need to be monitored [1][10][13] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the gold market in relation to economic policies and global demand trends.

Core Viewpoint - The British economy demonstrated unexpected resilience in Q2, with GDP growth of 0.3%, alleviating the urgency for the Bank of England to cut interest rates [1] Economic Performance - The GDP growth of 0.3% in Q2 exceeded market expectations, providing support for the British pound [1] - Current market expectations indicate that the Bank of England is likely to maintain interest rates during the monetary policy meetings in September and December [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of England is expected to maintain a cautious stance on interest rates for the remainder of 2025, balancing economic growth support and inflation control [1] - Analysts suggest that this prudent monetary policy will continue to support the British pound in the medium to long term, especially amid diverging monetary policies of major global central banks [1] Currency Trends - The British pound against the US dollar is on an upward trend, approaching key short-term resistance levels of 1.3588 and 1.3618 [1] - The currency has broken through the psychological level of 1.3500, supported by the 55-day moving average, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3541, signaling bullish momentum [1]

换资前言： 大行情抓不住，小区间拿不准，不是在抗单就是在扫损！相信很多投资者朋友都遇到过的问题，那么问 题的症结出在哪里？原因很简单，因为你做单没有章法、不懂理性，总是在追涨赶跌，凭感觉做单。或 是老师实力不济，屡屡将你带偏，小赚即出，大亏却一个不漏！当你拿着大把的本金进入这个市场，你 本来有大赚一笔的资本，但却将一把好牌打的稀烂。做单，首先看趋势，其次看点位！有理由的操作， 这才是投资！佛渡有缘人，我带有心人！ 策略一：黄金反弹3415-3420附近分批做空（买跌）十分之二仓位，止损10个点，目标3400-3390附近， 破位看3380一线；（策略具有时效性，更多实时布局策略在实盘学员内部公布。） 多单策略: 策略二：黄金回调3375-3380附近分批做多（买涨）十分之二仓位，止损10个点，目标3400-3410附近， 破位看3420一线；（策略具有时效性，更多实时布局策略在实盘学员内部公布。） 【新手单子被套怎么办？】 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 本周五，由于交易员将注意力转向下周公布的美国CPI数据，黄金的看涨势头有所减弱。疲软的非农就 业报告（NFP）引发了市场对利率预 ...

Moneta外汇关注到，美国总统已提名经济顾问委员会主席Stephen Miran临时填补美联储理事会的空缺。这一任命若获确认，可能对未来的利率政 策走向带来一定影响。 Miran是一位受过哈佛训练的经济学家，拥有学术与实务经验，曾在财政部、全球投资机构以及经济研究机构任职。他长期关注财政与贸易政策， 并在多个政策领域具备深入研究背景。Moneta外汇表示，此次提名接替的是在今年7月宣布离职的前任理事，其任期原定于明年1月结束。 据Moneta外汇分析，Miran若加入美联储理事会，市场预期他将倾向于支持较为宽松的货币政策，即在适当时机推动降息。这一观点在近期利率决 策环境中具有重要意义。美联储在7月会议上连续第五次维持利率不变，但罕见出现多位理事投票反对，这也是三十多年来首次出现此类情况。 外汇市场对利率预期极为敏感。若Miran的加入强化了市场对未来降息的押注，美元可能面临阶段性承压，而非美货币对（如欧元兑美元、日元兑 美元）可能获得支撑。对于外汇交易者而言，需要密切关注其确认进程及随后的政策立场表态。 目前，美国参议院是否会在9月16-17日的下次美联储政策会议前完成确认尚不确定。市场普遍预计确认过程可 ...

基本面： 周二（7月29日）白银上涨力度不足回落，市场短空轻仓布局方案。本周市场将经历国际贸易局势、美联储等央行利率决议、美国PCE等重磅经济数据和地 缘局势的多重重磅风险事件冲击。美联储利率预期：黄金白银价格波动的"风向标"本周，美联储将于7月30日结束为期两天的政策会议，市场普遍预期其将 维持指标利率区间在4.25%-4.50%不变。尽管特朗普多次向美联储主席鲍威尔施压要求大幅降息，但市场对9月降息的预期依然强烈。两年期美债收益率小幅 上升至3.926%，反映了市场对利率预期的微妙调整。黄金作为无息资产，其价格对利率预期极为敏感。如果美联储释放出明确的降息信号，美元可能走 弱，从而为金价提供上行动力。然而，当前市场对美联储维持利率稳定的预期占据主导，叠加美元的强势表现，金价短期内难以摆脱下行压力。投资者还需 密切关注美联储会后声明以及鲍威尔对未来政策的表态，这些都可能成为金价走势的关键转折点。 特朗普近期对俄罗斯设定了10至12天的最后期限，要求其在乌克兰战争中取得进展，否则将面临制裁和关税威胁。这一强硬立场引发了俄罗斯方面的激烈回 应，克里姆林宫盟友警告此举可能导致更大规模的冲突。乌克兰则对特朗普的表态 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold closing down 0.33% and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closing down 1.71%. The short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, while the risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations still exist; the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the strong employment and inflation are suppressing the expectations of interest rate cuts. It is expected that precious metals will be weak in gold and strong in silver in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. The CFTC net long position in silver and the iShare Silver ETF have resumed adding positions, and the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Price Performance**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $3338.50 per ounce, down $32.80 (-0.97%); London gold was at $3343.50 per ounce, down $22.35 (-0.66%); Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 774.78 yuan per gram, down 2.54 yuan (-0.33%); Gold T + D closed at 771.58 yuan per gram, down 2.03 yuan (-0.26%) [2] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold's position was 489,423 lots (100 ounces per lot), an increase of 46,279 lots (10.44%); Shanghai Gold's main contract position was 209,675 lots (kilograms per lot), down 2,176 lots (-1.03%); Gold TD's position was 207,044 lots (kilograms per lot), down 2,086 lots (-1.00%). LBMA's gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 13 tons (-1.08%); Shanghai Gold's inventory was 18 tons, up 0.28 tons (1.57%) [2] - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of futures companies' members in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhongcai Futures ranked first with 36,411 lots, an increase of 1,769 lots. Among the top 10 net short positions, Jinrui Futures ranked first with 3,733 lots, an increase of 225 lots [3] 3.2 Silver - **Price Performance**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $38.33 per ounce, down $0.96 (-2.44%); London silver was at $38.74 per ounce, down $0.29 (-0.74%); Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 9,212 yuan per kilogram, down 180 yuan (-1.92%); Silver T + D closed at 9,186 yuan per kilogram, down 186 yuan (-1.98%) [5] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex silver's position was 173,679 lots (5000 ounces per lot), an increase of 2,205 lots (1.29%); Shanghai Silver's main contract position was 5,976,315 lots (kilograms per lot), down 786,090 lots (-11.62%); Silver TD's position was 3,447,542 lots (kilograms per lot), an increase of 67,342 lots (1.99%). The total visible inventory was 41,850 tons, an increase of 54 tons (0.13%) [5] - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of futures companies' members in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, CITIC Futures ranked first with 40,772 lots, an increase of 2,153 lots. Among the top 10 net short positions, Jinrui Futures ranked first with 10,982 lots, a decrease of 1,593 lots [6] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 4.50%, down 0.25 percentage points; the discount rate was 4.50%, down 0.25 percentage points; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) was 4.40%, down 0.25 percentage points; the Fed's total assets were $6,708.939 billion, down $0.1672 billion (-0.00%); M2's year - on - year growth rate was 4.54%, up 0.37 percentage points [7] - **Inflation**: The year - on - year CPI was 2.70%, up 0.30 percentage points; the month - on - month CPI was 0.30%, unchanged; the year - on - year core CPI was 2.90%, up 0.10 percentage points; the month - on - month core CPI was 0.30%, up 0.10 percentage points; the year - on - year PCE price index was 2.34%, up 0.15 percentage points; the year - on - year core PCE price index was 2.68%, up 0.10 percentage points [8][9] - **Economic Growth**: The annualized year - on - year GDP growth rate was 1.90%, down 1.00 percentage points; the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP growth rate was - 0.50%, down 2.90 percentage points; the unemployment rate was 4.10%, down 0.10 percentage points; the monthly change in non - farm payrolls was 147,000, an increase of 3,000 [9] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index was 132.88, unchanged; the VIX index was 15.22, up 0.29 (1.94%); the CRB commodity index was 302.25, down 2.12 (-0.70%); the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.1628, down 0.0184 (-0.26%) [10] 3.4 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability that the federal funds rate will be in the range of 300 - 325 basis points in the meeting on July 30, 2025, is 3.1%, and the probability of 325 - 350 basis points is 96.9%. As time goes on, the probability distribution of the federal funds rate in different ranges shows certain changes [11]

Core Insights - The number of bidders at auctions across Australia has reached the highest level in the past 18 months, adding momentum to the upcoming traditional spring season [1][3]. Group 1: Auction Activity - In the last month, the average number of active bidders per auction property in Australia was 3.1, with an average of 4.7 registered bidders, marking the highest auction activity since January 2024 [3]. - In June, Victoria had an average of 3.7 registered bidders and 2.9 actual bidders, while New South Wales had 4.8 registered and 2.9 actual bidders [3]. - The peak auction activity occurred in September 2021, with an average of 4.1 bidders and 8.4 registered bidders, coinciding with historically low interest rates and heightened trading activity due to COVID-19 uncertainties [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Limited housing supply has created a sense of reduced choices for buyers, while optimistic interest rate expectations have encouraged more participation in auctions [6]. - The expectation of potential further interest rate cuts this year has bolstered buyer confidence, prompting decisive action in the market [6]. - Despite more registered bidders in New South Wales, the actual number of bidders remained stable, indicating that Sydney buyers are more proactive compared to those in Melbourne, where economic uncertainties and tax policies have dampened urgency [6]. Group 3: Buyer Behavior - There is a resurgence of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) among buyers, particularly in desirable areas, as they observe others making decisive bids [8]. - Current bidders are characterized by clear plans and thorough property evaluations, contrasting with the previous presence of spontaneous bidders [8]. - The competitive atmosphere of auctions is driving hesitant buyers from the past 18 months to actively participate, indicating a return to a more vibrant market [7].

数据，将成为决定国债收益率与美元走势的关键变量，若数据继续疲软或美联储在7月30日议息会议上释放 免责声明 更多鸽派信号，金价基本面支撑有望进一步增强，反之则需警惕避险需求的短暂退潮。操作上建议，继续 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 贵金属产业日报 2025-07-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 778.74 | -14.16 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 9386 | -106 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 213456 | -8931 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 459484 | -18795 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 160396 | -1408 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 135258 | 1070 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 29358 | 501 仓单数 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are currently in a range-bound fluctuation as the market awaits the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report next Tuesday [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent non-farm payroll data has suppressed further increases in gold prices, as the market has re-priced hawkish expectations regarding interest rates, putting pressure on the precious metal [1] - A weak CPI report could provide a boost to gold prices, while a strong performance may trigger a new wave of selling [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Perspective - From a broader perspective, gold is expected to maintain an upward trend due to the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's easing policies, which may lead to a continued decline in real yields [1] - However, short-term hawkish re-pricing of rate cut expectations could lead to a pullback in gold prices [1]

Group 1 - The core difference between gold and silver lies in their attributes, with gold primarily having financial properties and silver possessing both industrial and financial properties, which significantly affects their market performance in 2025 [1] - Gold pricing is mainly driven by US dollar liquidity and safe-haven demand, while silver's industrial demand accounts for 58.5%, with a projected 18% growth in global photovoltaic installations, leading to a dual logic of "industrial drive + financial recovery" for silver in Q2 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - Fundamental analysis for gold focuses on monetary policy and geopolitical risks, while silver requires attention to industrial data; for instance, a rise in global manufacturing PMI above the neutral line would boost silver demand [4] - The volatility of silver is significantly higher than that of gold, making silver more suitable for short-term trading strategies, as evidenced by the higher volatility rates observed in July 2025 [5] Group 3 - In the context of the Federal Reserve's policy cycle, gold relies more on interest rate expectations, while silver's performance is influenced by both industrial data and the gold-silver ratio; a breakout in the gold-silver ratio can indicate potential valuation recovery for silver [6] - A practical case in June 2025 showed that gold rose by 2.8% due to increased steel tariffs, while silver surged by 5.3% driven by industrial demand expectations and gold-silver ratio recovery [7] Group 4 - The conclusion emphasizes that gold should focus on "monetary attributes + interest rate cycles," while silver should pay attention to "industrial demand + gold-silver ratio recovery," suggesting a dynamic balance strategy for both metals [8]