联系人：殷雯卿 （微信 yinwenqing15） 报告摘要 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 一、全球货币政策转向跟踪 1 、全球利率图谱：美联储重启降息周期，日央行超预期鹰派 1 、美联储缩表的流动性跟踪：量价指标均指向流动性收紧信号 缩表的"数量"跟踪信号：隔夜逆回购几乎耗尽、贴现窗口用量提升 2025 年 8-9 月，我们跟踪的全球 26 个主要经济体中有 13 个经济体降息。美联储 9 月降息 25bp 至 4%-4.25% ，符合市场预期。欧央行连续第二次"按兵 不动"。日央行维持政策利率不变，但两名票委投票反对维持利率不变，同时宣布减持 ETF 与 REITs ，较预期鹰派。 2 、全球利率预期：年内美联储预期降息 3 次，日央行加息 1 次 美联储 降息预期升温，从目前外资机构的预测值来看，到 2025 年末基准利率预测值中枢约 3.75% （对应年内累计降息 3 次）；而到 2026 年末基准利率预测 值中枢约 3.25% （对应本轮降息周期累计降息 5 次）。 欧元区 在 9 月议息会议后，降息预期进一步降温，市场普遍预期欧央行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently fluctuating around 0.6520 against the US dollar (USD), with upcoming employment data expected to significantly influence interest rate expectations from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) [1] Economic Indicators - Australia's GDP growth rate for the second quarter exceeded expectations, indicating a stronger economic performance [1] - The employment data for August, to be released on September 18, is anticipated to be a critical factor affecting RBA's interest rate decisions [1] Labor Market Insights - The RBA has indicated that the pace of cash rate cuts will largely depend on the labor market conditions [1] - The July labor market report showed robust growth in full-time employment, supporting a gradual rate cut path by the RBA [1] Currency Fluctuation - The AUD/USD exchange rate has remained anchored within a narrow range of 0.6400 to 0.6600 for several months [1]

Core Insights - The report from Monex Europe analysts suggests that if the non-farm payroll data released on Friday exceeds expectations, the US dollar may receive some support [1] - It is anticipated that the August data will indicate a relatively stable labor market, with a higher likelihood of stronger-than-expected data [1] - This situation could shift market focus back to inflation risks, as the August inflation data will be released before the Federal Reserve's September meeting [1] - If the Federal Reserve places greater emphasis on inflation risks, it may not implement interest rate cuts throughout the year, leading to an adjustment in market interest rate expectations and a strengthening of the US dollar [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices surged after finding support at 3351, breaking last week's high of 3378 and reaching a peak of 3386, before fluctuating between 3380 and 3367 [3] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming US non-farm payroll report, which is expected to significantly impact interest rate expectations [3] - Current support levels are identified at 3365-3364, while resistance is noted at 3383-3386, with trading strategies suggested for both long and short positions [3] Group 2 - The commentary emphasizes the importance of self-discipline and facing one's mistakes as fundamental to success in trading [3] - The analysis covers a comprehensive understanding of the global economic system and highlights the need for investors to grasp key financial fundamentals [3] - The content encourages investors to pay attention to daily market interpretations of commodities such as gold, silver, and oil [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold has become a focal point for investment due to a combination of macroeconomic factors, including expectations of looser monetary policy, a weaker dollar, and potential political risks [1] - In July, India's gold imports reached approximately 37.5 tons, valued at nearly $4 billion, significantly higher than the total import of 170 tons in the first half of the year, indicating strong physical demand driven by seasonal factors [2] - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggest that most officials are focused on inflation, with the possibility of rate cuts occurring later than market expectations, which may lead to a weaker dollar and increased stability for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 2: Silver Market Challenges - Silver is facing multiple pressures, including weaker industrial demand expectations and a notable decline in speculative funds, with net long positions dropping by 16,352 contracts, a decrease of 27% since July [3] - Despite attempts to break the $39 per ounce resistance level, silver has struggled to maintain upward momentum, indicating that its short-term performance is constrained by outflows of funds and reduced demand [3] - The divergence between gold and silver trends highlights that while gold remains a strategic asset, silver's volatility risks are heightened due to its reliance on industrial demand and speculative investments [4]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices remained stable as the market awaited signals regarding U.S. interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, with a slight increase in copper prices noted [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 21, LME three-month copper rose by $4, or 0.04%, closing at $9,724.50 per ton, after hitting a low of $9,670.50 on August 20, the lowest since August 7 [1][2]. - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum up by $8.50 (0.33%) to $2,585.00, while three-month zinc, lead, tin, and nickel experienced declines [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data indicated a recovery in U.S. manufacturing, with August business activity accelerating and order growth reaching the strongest level in 18 months, while the Eurozone saw its first manufacturing expansion in over three years [4]. - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month has slightly decreased, providing support for the U.S. dollar, which in turn makes dollar-denominated metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies [4]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Codelco, a major Chilean copper producer, announced a reduction in its 2025 production forecast by 33,000 tons due to an accident at its El Teniente mine, which is expected to impact overall copper supply [4]. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global copper market surplus of 251,000 tons for the first half of 2025, down from a surplus of 395,000 tons in the same period last year, with refined copper production increasing to 14.21 million tons from 13.72 million tons year-on-year [5]. Group 4: Future Price Outlook - Goldman Sachs anticipates that increased defense spending in the European Union will significantly boost industrial metal demand, projecting upward price risks for copper in 2026 and 2027, with expected prices of $10,000 and $10,750 per ton, respectively [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **gold market** and its dynamics in relation to **U.S. economic policies** and **global demand trends** for gold, particularly focusing on **gold ETFs** and **central bank purchases**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Gold ETF Demand and Price Movement**: In the first half of 2024, global gold ETF demand led to an increase of approximately **397 tons**, reflecting a core avoidance of U.S. tariff policy risks, especially after the April tariff adjustments [1][4] 2. **Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies**: The fluctuating U.S. gold bar tariff policies significantly affected spot trade and market sentiment, with concerns about physical delivery risks on the COMEX exchange arising in early August [1][5] 3. **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions**: The Federal Reserve is expected to consider a **preventive rate cut** in September, which may not be substantial but could influence short-term gold market dynamics [1][6][10] 4. **Speculative Positions and Inflation Expectations**: Speculative positions have less impact on gold prices this year, correlating positively with long-term U.S. inflation expectations, contrasting with previous years [1][7] 5. **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Central bank gold purchases totaled approximately **415 tons** in the first half of the year, a **21% decrease** year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in demand that has affected price trends [1][7] 6. **Market Adjustments and Volatility**: The gold market has entered a period of adjustment and low volatility, with ETF inflows decreasing significantly in July compared to earlier months [1][4][8] Additional Important Insights 1. **Geopolitical Factors**: The Asian market has become a significant contributor to gold demand following tariff changes, but demand has cooled since May due to tariff reductions [1][4] 2. **Historical Context of Gold Demand**: The current situation mirrors past periods of heightened gold demand during geopolitical tensions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][4] 3. **Future Outlook on Gold Prices**: The potential for further upward movement in gold prices exists if U.S. economic conditions worsen, but the sustainability of such trends remains uncertain [1][11][12] 4. **Market Sentiment and Trading Opportunities**: The current economic data and interest rate expectations may create short-term trading opportunities, but long-term risks related to U.S. economic growth need to be monitored [1][10][13] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the gold market in relation to economic policies and global demand trends.

Core Viewpoint - The British economy demonstrated unexpected resilience in Q2, with GDP growth of 0.3%, alleviating the urgency for the Bank of England to cut interest rates [1] Economic Performance - The GDP growth of 0.3% in Q2 exceeded market expectations, providing support for the British pound [1] - Current market expectations indicate that the Bank of England is likely to maintain interest rates during the monetary policy meetings in September and December [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of England is expected to maintain a cautious stance on interest rates for the remainder of 2025, balancing economic growth support and inflation control [1] - Analysts suggest that this prudent monetary policy will continue to support the British pound in the medium to long term, especially amid diverging monetary policies of major global central banks [1] Currency Trends - The British pound against the US dollar is on an upward trend, approaching key short-term resistance levels of 1.3588 and 1.3618 [1] - The currency has broken through the psychological level of 1.3500, supported by the 55-day moving average, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3541, signaling bullish momentum [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to stronger-than-expected U.S. PPI data, cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts, and a temporary easing of geopolitical risks following the U.S.-Russia summit [3][5][6]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July rose by 0.9%, significantly exceeding market expectations of 0.2%, marking the largest monthly increase since June 2022 [3][4]. - Core PPI, excluding food and energy, also increased by 0.9%, well above the anticipated 0.3%, indicating persistent supply chain pressures and rising service prices [4][6]. - Initial jobless claims decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, lower than the expected 228,000, suggesting a robust labor market and reinforcing the Fed's stance on maintaining high interest rates [7][8]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal Reserve officials expressed caution regarding interest rate cuts, with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee emphasizing the need for more data to confirm inflation trends [5][6]. - The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September dropped from 50% to 30% following these comments, leading to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields [5][6]. - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 5.6 basis points to 4.2326%, further pressuring gold prices as investors preferred fixed-income assets over non-yielding gold [5][6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska became a focal point, with initial threats from Trump easing during discussions, which alleviated market concerns over the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [6][7]. - The easing of geopolitical tensions led to a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.04% to a record high [6][7]. - The International Energy Agency's warning of an oil supply surplus contributed to a decline in oil prices, reducing inflationary pressures and further diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6][7]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The overall market sentiment has shifted towards bearish for gold, with technical indicators suggesting a continuation of the downward trend [9]. - Gold prices are currently trading below the 5-day moving average of 3344, indicating a potential move towards the lower Bollinger Band at 3281 [9]. - The recommendation for trading strategy is to consider short positions on rebounds, reflecting the prevailing bearish outlook [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by upcoming U.S. CPI data and changing expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a potential for both bullish and bearish movements in the near term [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices experienced volatility, testing the $3400 level multiple times, with a peak at $3409, the highest since July 24 [2]. - The market is currently assessing the implications of U.S. economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report, which has led to a reevaluation of interest rate expectations [1][2]. - Analysts remain bullish on gold prices despite recent fluctuations, with a focus on geopolitical events and Federal Reserve officials' comments [2][3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The current support level for gold is around $3380, which has been tested multiple times without breaking, indicating strong bullish sentiment [3][5]. - The overall trend remains upward, with higher lows being established since the low of $3268, suggesting continued strength in the market [5]. - Short-term strategies suggest a preference for buying on dips around $3375-$3380 and selling on rallies near $3410-$3420 [4][5]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategy includes selling on rallies between $3415-$3420 with a target of $3400-$3390, and buying on dips around $3375-$3380 with a target of $3400-$3410 [4]. - Emphasis on risk management, including setting stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses [4][6]. - The market is advised to remain cautious and responsive to real-time data and trends, with a focus on maintaining proper position sizes and stop-loss measures [5][6].