Accessible version On Macro & Micro: global growth expectations improve but still weak (net -46%); big reversal in recession odds (net 42% "likely" in April to 36% "unlikely" in June); 66% expect soft landing (8-month high - 16% = no landing, 13% = hard landing); One Big Beautiful Bill to increase US growth say 33% vs 81% to increase US deficit; investors say corporate balance sheets in best health since Dec'15, and most since Jul'13 want companies to return cash to shareholders. On Returns, Risks, Crowds: ...

Next 12 Months Outlook: Our High-Conviction Calls Skewed to the Downside: The broad imposition of tariffs by the US is a structural shock to the global trading order. The tariffs themselves and the associated uncertainty will weigh notably on growth, but given the strong starting point coming into the year, we do not expect a global recession. Although the recent US inflation data did not show notable effects from inflation, we do not change our view that goods inflation will step up, and expect quarterly i ...

M Morgan Stanley Research: Key Forecasts Next 12 Months Outlook: Our High-Conviction Calls Skewed to the Downside: The broad imposition of tariffs by the US is a structural shock to the global trading order. The tariffs themselves and the associated uncertainty will weigh notably on growth, but given the strong starting point coming into the year, we do not expect a global recession. Despite recent tariff announcements, we still expect baseline tariff rates to remain the same as our outlook, and we expect t ...

June 2, 2025 09:34 PM GMT M Morgan Stanley Research: Key Forecasts Next 12 Months Outlook: Our High-Conviction Calls Skewed to the Downside: The broad imposition of tariffs by the US is a structural shock to the global trading order. The tariffs themselves and the associated uncertainty will weigh notably on growth, but given the strong starting point coming into the year, we do not expect a global recession. Despite recent tariff announcements, we still expect baseline tariff rates to remain the same as ou ...