Trading Platform - BitStockFutures allows trading of US stocks 24/5, even after US market closure [1] Market Opportunity - Extends trading hours beyond regular US market sessions [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on US stocks, Treasuries, and US Investment Grade Corporate Credit, while recommending a focus on quality assets [4][5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a global growth slowdown due to the imposition of tariffs by the US, which is expected to impact demand and supply dynamics across various regions [2][8]. - Despite the anticipated slowdown, the report does not foresee a global recession, citing a strong starting point for growth entering the year [2]. - The US GDP growth is projected to decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026, with global growth expected to decrease from 3.5% to 2.5% in the same period [2][9]. Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a step-down in global growth, with specific forecasts indicating a 2.5% growth rate for 2025 and 2.8% for 2026 [9]. - Inflation rates are projected to be 2.1% for global inflation in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, with the US expected to see inflation rates of 3.0% and 2.5% respectively [9]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, the report favors quality cyclicals, large caps, and defensives with lower leverage and cheaper valuations [6]. - For Japan, the focus is on domestic reflation and corporate reform beneficiaries, as well as companies involved in defense and economic security spending [6]. - In Europe, the report suggests repositioning into resilient sectors such as defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials [6]. - Emerging Markets (EM) recommendations are skewed towards financials and domestic-focused businesses over exporters and semiconductors/hardware [6]. Equity Valuations - The report provides specific price targets and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for major indices, including S&P 500 at 6,000 with a target of 6,500, and MSCI EM at 1,183 with a target of 1,200 [7]. - The expected EPS growth for S&P 500 is +7% for 2025 and +9% for 2026, while MSCI EM is projected to grow by +6% in 2025 and +10% in 2026 [7]. Currency and Interest Rate Forecasts - The report predicts a depreciation of the USD, with the DXY expected to fall by 9% to 91 by mid-2026 due to converging US rates and growth with global peers [14]. - US Treasury yields are expected to remain range-bound until late 2025, with significant rate cuts anticipated in 2026 [14][21]. Commodity Insights - Oil prices are expected to face downward pressure due to potential supply increases, with Brent prices projected to drop into the mid-$50s by 1H26 [16]. - Gold is highlighted as a top pick due to strong central bank demand and safe-haven appeal amid growth concerns [18].

国内及海外市场策略（三） - 中金公司 2025 年度春季投 资策略会 摘要 • 中国股债相关性转负，美国股债相关性转正，反映通胀环境差异。中国市 场关注增长，股债负相关；美国高通胀下，股债易正相关。 • 中国股票波动率或趋势下行，美国则可能上行。低利率环境通常伴随低波 动，美国高通胀、高利率政策周期导致其波动率上升。 • 中外资产相关性降低，经济基本面周期脱钩，中国与海外资产价格脱钩， 中国资产估值便宜，为全球组合提供分散风险价值。 • 更新黄金多因子模型至 2.0 版本，预测未来十年黄金价格可能涨至 3,000- 5,000 美元，长期看好，但短期关税恐慌或致流动性溢价不确定性。 • 战略性超配中国股票，因其估值便宜且能分散风险。中国市场具备长期增 长潜力，与海外市场关联度降低，是全球投资组合重要部分。 • 2025 年第一季度市场超预期，因特朗普关税低于预期、中国出口分散度 提升、Deepseek 提振风险偏好，中国股票表现优异。 • 美股脆弱性源于两年内标普 500 累计涨幅达 50%后的均值回归风险及估 值过高，建议适度降低海外资产仓位并控制风险。 Q&A 去年（2024 年）11 月发布的 202 ...