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Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on US stocks, Treasuries, and US Investment Grade Corporate Credit, while recommending a focus on quality assets [4][5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a global growth slowdown due to the imposition of tariffs by the US, which is expected to impact demand and supply dynamics across various regions [2][8]. - Despite the anticipated slowdown, the report does not foresee a global recession, citing a strong starting point for growth entering the year [2]. - The US GDP growth is projected to decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026, with global growth expected to decrease from 3.5% to 2.5% in the same period [2][9]. Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a step-down in global growth, with specific forecasts indicating a 2.5% growth rate for 2025 and 2.8% for 2026 [9]. - Inflation rates are projected to be 2.1% for global inflation in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, with the US expected to see inflation rates of 3.0% and 2.5% respectively [9]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, the report favors quality cyclicals, large caps, and defensives with lower leverage and cheaper valuations [6]. - For Japan, the focus is on domestic reflation and corporate reform beneficiaries, as well as companies involved in defense and economic security spending [6]. - In Europe, the report suggests repositioning into resilient sectors such as defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials [6]. - Emerging Markets (EM) recommendations are skewed towards financials and domestic-focused businesses over exporters and semiconductors/hardware [6]. Equity Valuations - The report provides specific price targets and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for major indices, including S&P 500 at 6,000 with a target of 6,500, and MSCI EM at 1,183 with a target of 1,200 [7]. - The expected EPS growth for S&P 500 is +7% for 2025 and +9% for 2026, while MSCI EM is projected to grow by +6% in 2025 and +10% in 2026 [7]. Currency and Interest Rate Forecasts - The report predicts a depreciation of the USD, with the DXY expected to fall by 9% to 91 by mid-2026 due to converging US rates and growth with global peers [14]. - US Treasury yields are expected to remain range-bound until late 2025, with significant rate cuts anticipated in 2026 [14][21]. Commodity Insights - Oil prices are expected to face downward pressure due to potential supply increases, with Brent prices projected to drop into the mid-$50s by 1H26 [16]. - Gold is highlighted as a top pick due to strong central bank demand and safe-haven appeal amid growth concerns [18].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategic overweight in Chinese stocks and gold, while recommending a lower allocation to commodities and overseas assets [2][5][13]. Core Insights - The correlation between Chinese stocks and bonds has turned negative, while the correlation in the U.S. has turned positive, reflecting differing inflation environments [1][3]. - Chinese stock volatility is expected to trend downward, whereas U.S. volatility may rise due to high inflation and interest rate policies [1][3]. - The decoupling of economic fundamentals has led to a decrease in correlation between Chinese and overseas assets, making Chinese assets attractive for risk diversification [1][4][5]. - The updated multi-factor model predicts that gold prices could rise to $3,000-$5,000 over the next decade, indicating a long-term bullish outlook despite short-term uncertainties [1][6]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw better-than-expected market performance due to lower-than-expected tariff increases and improved export diversification from China [1][8][9]. Summary by Sections Market Strategy - The report highlights three new asset allocation trends: the negative correlation of Chinese stocks and bonds, the positive correlation of U.S. stocks and bonds, and the decreasing correlation between Chinese and overseas assets [3][4]. Investment Implications - The strengthening negative correlation in China suggests that less bond allocation is needed to hedge stock risks, allowing for increased bond positions in portfolios [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing the allocation to Chinese stocks due to their cheap valuations and risk diversification benefits [5][7]. Gold Investment Perspective - The report maintains a positive stance on gold investment, having updated its multi-factor model to extend the analysis period and exclude U.S. Treasury yields, indicating a potential long-term price surge [6]. Chinese Stock Strategy - The report advocates for a strategic overweight in Chinese stocks, citing their cheap valuations and long-term growth potential in a low inflation and low interest rate environment [7]. Overseas Asset Strategy - The report advises a cautious approach to overseas assets, particularly U.S. stocks, due to their high valuation and the risk of mean reversion following significant past gains [11][12].