Bank of America technical analyst Paul Ciana is warning that the second quarter looks challenging for equities, bonds, and gold. His March 27 report sees the US dollar and oil as the two assets best positioned to hold strength into mid-year. Most everything else faces downside risk. Recent market moves have reinforced earlier BofA forecasts. Rising Treasury yields, a firmer dollar, and higher oil prices are all tracking in the direction the bank expected. Ciana says those trends are likely to continue un ...

Are things still orderly out there in the markets or beginning to see a little bit of disorder. I think it depends which currency that you're looking at, but certainly things are very anxious and I think we all know that. But with respect to the dollar, you know, I think we can look at this and perhaps the medium term, which I think is very complex.Is this going to be the next chapter of the dollarization, for instance, as countries such as China press to have their oil delivered in more one. But in the sho ...

Conflicting statements from the USA and Iran around 25 March gave some hope of a negotiated peace being within reach. However, this might be distant given that the two sides’ plans seem fairly directly opposed. The US dollar has been among the main beneficiaries in markets of recent news, up in most of its pairs, while gold’s decline continued. As widely expected, the USA didn’t proceed with destroying Iran’s energy infrastructure on 23 March as threatened by Donald Trump. However, reports from Egyptian ...

Looking at the futures picture, pretty optimistic heading into the weekend. How are markets in general setting up for the time when we always seem to get the most news. Yes.Hi, Lizzie. That's right. It still seems that a lot of the action takes place at the weekend.Feel some some sympathy for the Asian colleagues. We're the first responders in the in the market sense, at least when we get in looking at what's going to happen, I think positioning is so crucial at the moment. It's very, very interesting becau ...

Core Viewpoint - The dominance of the US dollar is being challenged due to rising US debt, unpredictable trade policies, and geopolitical tensions, leading to discussions about "ddollarization" and potential alternatives like the euro [1]. Group 1: Euro as an Alternative - The euro is seen as a potential alternative to the US dollar, especially if backed by the world's second-largest economy and a robust rules-based framework [2]. - Despite efforts by Brussels and the ECB to promote the euro's international use since 2018, central banks have not significantly increased their euro allocations, instead opting to buy gold [2]. - Euro adoption can provide currency stability, lower transaction costs, and deeper financial integration, but joining the Eurozone does not automatically enhance the euro's attractiveness as a global reserve currency [3]. Group 2: Current Trends and Challenges - The euro has remained stable while the dollar continues to dominate; for Europe to effectively challenge the dollar, deeper fiscal integration and a more unified capital market are necessary [5]. - The concept of "ddollarization" is more about gradual evolution rather than a sudden shift, with gold still being a favored alternative [4]. - Recent geopolitical events, such as the Middle East war, have led to a resurgence in the dollar as a safe haven, complicating the narrative around ddollarization [6][7]. Group 3: Regional Insights - Bulgaria's recent adoption of the euro, despite political instability and public opposition, illustrates the complexities of euro adoption in the region [8][9]. - The political landscape in Bulgaria, including Russian influence against euro adoption, highlights the challenges faced by countries considering a shift away from the dollar [9].

Bloomberg Emerging-market stocks and equities capped their longest streak of weekly losses in almost a year as the war in the Middle East roils markets, sending oil surging and fueling growing bets the US may raise interest rates this year. A gauge tracking currencies in the developing world fell 0.2% Friday and is at its lowest level of 2026, while an index of emerging-market stocks fell as much as 1% on Friday. Assets hit fresh lows for the day late afternoon as oil prices spiked past $112 a barrel aft ...

Gold plummeted as much as 6% on Thursday, with the precious metal acting like anything but a safe-haven asset as the Middle East conflict escalates. Investors went risk-off as the prospects of higher inflation lowered the chances investors are placing on Fed rate cuts. Gold futures (GC=F) fell to around $4,600 per ounce, while the broader metals complex was also hammered, with silver (SI=F) and copper (HG=F) dropping 13% and 5%, respectively. Even "digital gold" was battered, with bitcoin (BTC-USD) dropp ...

Gold plummeted as much as 6% on Thursday, with the precious metal acting like anything but a safe-haven asset as the Middle East conflict escalates. Investors went risk-off as the prospects of higher inflation lowered the chances investors are placing on Fed rate cuts. Gold futures (GC=F) fell to $4,500 per ounce, while the broader metals complex was also hammered, with silver (SI=F) and copper (HG=F) dropping 13% and 5%, respectively. Even digital gold was battered with bitcoin (BTC-USD) dropping below ...

Historically, major geopolitical or economic crises, such as the war against Iran, have prompted investors to sell riskier assets and buy "safe-haven†investments whose values were expected to remain stable or even rise amid the disruptions. The most popular safe havens have been the US dollar, gold, and longer-term US Treasury obligations. Faced with the crisis, or the prospect of one, investors would typically bid up the value of the dollar versus other currencies. Many would also avidly buy up gold, drivi ...

Photographer: Brendon Thorne/Bloomberg Gold fell, pressured by strength of the US dollar and the prospect of less monetary easing as the war in Iran sent oil prices soaring. Bullion fell as much as 2.3% on Thursday while the dollar strengthened as both US President Donald Trump and Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, struck defiant tones on the 13th day of the war, offering little relief to energy markets. Most Read from Bloomberg About two weeks into the US-Israeli war with Iran, millions of ...