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Yuan Moves Closer to Replacing Pound as 4th Most-Traded Currency
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-01 01:58
(Bloomberg) — Global trading of the Chinese yuan has surged to $817 billion a day, extending a decade-long trend with volumes nearing those of the British pound, according to the Bank for International Settlements. The yuan now makes up 8.5% of global currency transactions, up from 7.0% in 2022, according to the BIS’s triennial survey. While it remains the fifth-most traded currency, it closed the gap with fourth-placed sterling, whose share fell from 12.9% to 10.2%. Most Read from Bloomberg Chinese of ...
Foreign investors are sticking with US stocks amid Trump tariff turmoil
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-26 16:40
In April, talk of a “Sell America” trade picked up steam on Wall Street following the unveiling of President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs. US stocks, Treasurys, and the dollar all tumbled at once — an unusual dislocation that shook confidence in America’s safe-haven status. But recent data indicates that investors abroad have actually stuck with US stocks in 2025. From the start of the year to the end of June, foreign investors allocated more than 30% of their US financial assets to equities — near r ...
25bps v. 50bps Rate Cut Discussion "Alive and Well," VIX Important to Watch
Youtube· 2025-09-12 14:45
Economic Indicators - The inflation data released this week showed a significantly lower Producer Price Index (PPI) and a firm Consumer Price Index (CPI), indicating a stable inflation environment [1][2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is crucial, with discussions around a potential 50 basis points versus 25 basis points rate cut, influenced by weak labor market data [2][3] Market Performance - The market is currently at all-time highs, with no immediate factors suggesting a downturn ahead of the Fed's decision [4][5] - The VIX, or fear index, has dropped below 15, indicating low implied volatility in the market, which is not typical for a market at all-time highs [6][7] Sector Insights - The housing market is showing positive signs, with mortgage applications increasing due to a drop in interest rates to around 4%, which is beneficial for both the housing sector and stocks [9] - Retail sales data expected next week is anticipated to be strong, further supporting market optimism [5][8] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer sentiment data is expected to show a reading around 58, with inflation expectations at 4.8%, although this soft data is not seen as a strong indicator of current economic conditions [12][13]
Morning Bid: Markets to Fed: We'll take five to go, please
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-12 04:35
Group 1 - U.S. CPI data indicates a firmer trend, leading analysts to adjust forecasts to +0.2% month-over-month and a steady 2.9% year-over-year, supporting the Federal Reserve's potential easing cycle with a 25 basis points cut next week [1] - The labor market data has shown a significant downward shift, prompting discussions around a more aggressive 50 basis points cut, which could maintain market momentum if supported by dissenting votes [2] - Futures markets are pricing in 71 basis points of cuts by Christmas and 125 basis points by July, suggesting expectations for multiple rate cuts in upcoming meetings [3] Group 2 - Recent bond market movements have led to a quarter-point reduction in mortgage rates, with 10-year yields decreasing approximately 20 basis points over the past two weeks, indicating a need for the Fed to signal further easing [4] - The prospect of lower U.S. borrowing costs has enhanced liquidity in Asia, driving record highs in indexes across Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, with the Kospi rising nearly 6% for the week [5] - The U.S. dollar has remained stable against major currencies despite falling yields, with the dollar index showing only a slight decline, while the Australian dollar and Norwegian crown have reached significant highs [6] Group 3 - Key market developments to watch include speeches from Bank of Spain Governor Jose Luis Escriva and ECB policymaker Olli Rehn, along with UK GDP and manufacturing output data for July, and final readings on EU CPI [7]
鲍威尔意外“放鸽”,分析师发警告
Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference conveyed a more dovish stance, signaling potential easing of monetary policy, which led to a significant market rally, the largest since April [1] - Powell indicated that changes in risk balance may necessitate adjustments in policy, hinting at a possible rate cut in September, although he did not provide a firm commitment [1] - The immediate market reaction included a sharp decline in Treasury yields, with the two-year yield dropping 10 basis points to 3.69%, and the implied probability of a September rate cut rising from 70% to 80% [1] Group 2 - Some Wall Street strategists view Powell's remarks as a reassurance to the market, but caution that the market may be overreacting [2] - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence have resurfaced, particularly due to President Trump's public pressure on Powell to cut rates and his comments regarding Fed Governor Cook [2] - The market's enthusiastic response reflects a mixed sentiment among investors, who are hopeful for liquidity easing but worried about the economic fundamentals supporting long-term market growth [2]
Will We See the U.S. Dollar Backed By Gold Again?
Monetary Policy & Gold - The US dollar was once backed by gold, but that system ended [1] - Devaluation and lack of confidence in fiat systems historically lead to a return to linking money to gold [1] - Printing money to pay debt leads to a lack of confidence, potentially triggering a relinking to gold [1] - A relinking of gold to money is conceivable, but far in the future [2]
Bitcoin Is The New King of Wall Street
Anthony Pompliano· 2025-07-28 13:01
Market Dominance & Adoption - Bitcoin has established itself as the king of the crypto market and continues to dominate in market cap, capital flows, and attention [1] - Increasing adoption of Bitcoin, Ether, and Ethereum is indicated by more data points [1] - Bitcoin has broken away from other assets like Ethereum and Solana, which haven't set new all-time highs recently [1] Wall Street & Bitcoin Integration - Wall Street is embracing Bitcoin and figuring out how to make money from it [1] - Bitcoin is being integrated into the traditional financial system through ETFs, public companies, and real estate funds [1] - Wall Street sees Bitcoin as a way to bring volatility, financial return, more customers, assets, and profits [1] Bitcoin as a Store of Value - The US dollar has lost 30% of its purchasing power since 2020 [1] - The S&P 500 denominated in Bitcoin is down 85% since 2020 [1] - Bitcoin is considered a better store of value than the US dollar by some [1] - Storing corporate assets in Bitcoin is expected to become a consensus trade over time [1] Future Catalysts for Bitcoin - The United States government may announce the purchase of Bitcoin to create a strategic reserve [1] - Some remaining skeptical firms on Wall Street may eventually capitulate and embrace Bitcoin [2]
Chart Master: Tracking a bounce in the U.S. Dollar
CNBC Television· 2025-07-17 22:02
Market Trend Analysis - The US dollar is experiencing its best month in 2025, showing signs of a potential breakout [1] - A bounce in the dollar's value this week suggests further upward movement is likely [2] Technical Analysis - The dollar has bounced off a well-defined multi-year uptrend line [2] - The dollar's value previously moved from 110 to 96, with a bounce occurring at the 96 level [3] - The dollar has moved above a downtrend line, indicating a significant developmental price action [4] Investment Strategy - An oversold bounce is occurring, and the trade is likely to continue higher [4]
美银:全球买方基金经理调查
美银· 2025-07-16 00:55
Investment Rating - The report indicates a "sell signal" triggered by cash levels falling to 3.9% [14][15][86] Core Insights - Investor sentiment is the most bullish since February 2025, with a significant surge in profit optimism and risk appetite over the past three months [2][17] - 59% of investors believe a recession is unlikely, a notable shift from 42% in April, with 65% expecting a soft landing [3][26][27] - The most crowded trade is "short US dollar," with a net 20% overweight on Euro, the highest since January 2005 [5][55][62] Summary by Sections Macro Insights - 42% of investors expect Q2 2025 EPS to beat consensus, while 19% anticipate disappointment [30][36] - AI is perceived to be increasing productivity by 42% of investors [32][37] - Expectations for a global recession have decreased, with only 9% expecting a hard landing [26][28] Policy Insights - The trade war is viewed as the biggest tail risk, with expected final tariff rates on the Rest of the World rising to 14% [4][49][48] - 81% of investors forecast one or two rate cuts by year-end, with only 11% expecting a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting [38][44] Asset Allocation - FMS equity allocation improved to a net 2% overweight, while bond allocation remains net 4% underweight [120][121] - Investors are most overweight Eurozone equities, with a net 41% overweight, the highest in four years [63][65] - There has been a significant increase in allocation to tech stocks, with a net 14% overweight, the highest since January 2025 [68][70] Investor Sentiment - The FMS cash level has dropped to 3.9%, indicating a sell signal, with historical median losses following such signals averaging -2% [14][20][86] - Risk appetite has surged, with a net 31% of investors expecting weaker global economic growth, a significant recovery from previous months [23][92] - 68% of investors believe high-quality earnings will outperform low-quality earnings [101][103]
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-07-12 14:14
Market Risk - Deutsche Bank AG strategist suggests President Trump's potential dismissal of Fed Chair Jerome Powell is a major and underpriced risk [1] - The strategist anticipates this action could trigger a selloff in the US dollar and Treasuries [1]