Cotton futures are up 50 to 60 points so far on Tuesday, following the Monday strength. Crude oil futures were back down 42 cents per barrel at $57.90. The US dollar index is up $0.328 at $98.310. Export sale commitments for cotton have reached 6.5 million RB as of 12/25, down 15% from the same week last year. That is 57% of the USDA estimate and well behind the 75% average pace to meet that projection. More News from Barchart Commitment of Traders data showed managed money cutting 1,368 contracts fro ...

US stocks wavered early Wednesday as Wall Street prepared to wrap up an eventful, roller-coaster trading year with sizable gains. The blue chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), S&P 500 (^GSPC), and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) all lost around 0.1%. After three straight losing sessions that have dimmed hopes for a "Santa Claus rally," Wall Street is nevertheless ready to celebrate its gains in 2025. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) is up over 17% this year, on track for its sixth year of 15 ...

The US dollar, posting its worst week since June, with Bloomberg's dollar index showing the greenback on course for its steepest yearly drop since 2017. Lots of questions around debasement. Bloomberg Skylar Montgomery Koning joins us now.And Skylar, thank you so much for being with us. Before we get to the dollar and the path ahead, I'm curious your view on how much you consider gold and silver when discussing whether we are seeing truly a debasement trade take hold. Yeah.I mean, I think the one place that ...

Currency markets are not always sensitive to inflation itself. What they care about is what inflation signals — about growth, policy, credibility, governance, and perhaps most of all, predictability.By now, the mix is familiar — uneven goods inflation, tariffs doing their work in the background, stubbornly high rents and housing costs. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly pointed to trade policy as a contributor to inflation overshoots, while emphasizing that officials need clearer evidence before conclud ...

（原标题：The world is likely to be "multi-nodal" based on partnership, said US scholar） While the idea of a multipolar world order is better than a bipolar or unipolar system, Womack believes that it is also flawed. Multipolarity implies that some countries are "poles" while others are not. Today's world is very complex, and every country holds its own views and makes its own decisions in its international relations. In his view, the concept of a "multi-nodal world" system allows us to see the complexity of rel ...

ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images 2025 may have been the start of the end of America's outperformance, a strategist says. Lazard's Ron Temple pointed to concerns about the Fed's credibility and the US debt pile. Investors may start to shift away from the US dollar first in currency hedges, he said. This year might be remembered as the end of a distinct era in markets. Lazard's top strategist said said he believes 2025 marked the beginning of the end of American exceptionalism in financial markets ...

Core Insights - Hedge funds are heavily shorting the US dollar, reaching one of the most extreme positioning levels in two decades, which historically precedes a USD recovery rather than a prolonged decline [2][4] - The crowded short positions in the DXY indicate a potential for a short-term rebound in the dollar, as similar setups in the past have led to significant buying opportunities [3][4] - The current macro environment does not support ongoing USD weakness, with tightening dollar funding markets and slowing growth, making sudden reversals more likely [6] Hedge Fund Positioning - Hedge funds are entrenched in "extreme short" territory, which has historically been a precursor to a dollar bounce [2][3] - Analyst Guilherme Tavares notes that when a trade becomes too crowded, it is often worth considering the opposite side, suggesting a potential shift in sentiment [3] Macro Environment - The broader economic conditions are not conducive to sustained USD weakness, as Treasury markets are pricing in future Fed cuts and dollar funding markets are tightening [6] - EndGame Macro emphasizes that extreme short positioning typically does not occur in calm markets, indicating vulnerability to shifts in sentiment or liquidity [5] Impact on Crypto Markets - There is a direct inverse relationship between the DXY and digital assets, with a rising dollar posing a threat to the crypto market [7] - If the USD rebounds strongly from these crowded shorts, it could lead to sustained pressure on crypto during a period when investors expect a multi-year bull cycle [8] Technical Signals - Market technicians are observing breakout signals on the US Dollar Index, with the DXY closing above its 200-day moving average for the first time in nearly nine months, indicating a potential end to a 7–8 month downtrend [9]

Core Insights - The Swiss franc has reached a 10-year high against the euro, driven by expectations of persistent inflation and potential reductions in US tariffs, leading to increased demand for the currency [1][3] - The franc's rise is supported by comments from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) indicating a slight increase in inflation, which has reduced speculation about a return to negative interest rates [2] - Hedge funds are positioning for further appreciation of the franc, particularly against the euro and yen, as December is historically a strong month for the currency [4] Currency Performance - The Swiss franc increased by 0.4% to 0.91862 per euro, marking its strongest level since January 2015 [1] - The current upward trend is on track for a seventh consecutive daily gain, the longest winning streak since August 2024 [1] Market Sentiment - Money markets have decreased the probability of negative interest rates to less than 30%, down from approximately 64% a month ago, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [2] - Reports of Switzerland nearing a 15% tariff reduction on exports to the US have further bolstered the franc [3] Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge funds are increasingly betting on the strength of the franc against the euro and yen, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [4] - There is a potential for long positions against the US dollar as well, given the historical performance of the franc in December [4]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is experiencing a decline in global trust, raising concerns about its long-term status as the dominant reserve currency [1][2]. Group 1: US Dollar and Global Trust - Jeffrey Schott from the Peterson Institute highlights that US domestic economic policies could further undermine confidence in the dollar [1]. - The dollar's position as the leading reserve currency is not guaranteed, as historical precedents show that currencies can lose their dominance due to government policies [2]. Group 2: Multilateral Negotiations and Trade Agreements - Schott emphasizes that the lack of trust in the implementation of agreements is a significant challenge for multilateral negotiations, leading to a preference for regional and bilateral agreements [2]. - The US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is described as a significant error, with the CPTPP offering improvements and increased transparency in trade policies [3]. - Schott expresses skepticism about the US rejoining the CPTPP in the near future [4].

Core Insights - The Argentine peso has experienced a significant decline, trading at an unprecedented rate of 1,500 against the USD, marking a 45% increase in the USD/ARS exchange rate this year, making it the worst-performing currency [1][4]. Economic Context - The surge in the USD/ARS pair occurred despite US government interventions, including the sale of dollars through Banco Santander and a $20 billion currency swap line [2][3]. - The US Treasury is also negotiating with American banks for additional loans, although many banks are hesitant to participate [3]. Political Factors - The upcoming mid-term elections in Argentina pose a risk to the current administration, with the potential loss of Milei's party, which could lead to a cessation of US aid [3][5]. - There is significant domestic pressure on Donald Trump regarding the bailout, with some lawmakers advocating for prioritizing American interests over foreign aid [5][6]. Market Analysis - Technical analysis indicates that the USD/ARS pair has been in a strong uptrend, surpassing key resistance levels, suggesting potential for further gains [8][9]. - The ongoing rally of the US dollar, with the dollar index rising from 96 to nearly 100, has contributed to the peso's decline against both developed and emerging market currencies [7].