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固定收益部市场日报-20260226
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-02-26 08:37
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a buy rating on FUTLAN/FTLNHDs for their good carry and manageable refinancing risk [12] Core View of the Report - Seazen demonstrates better access to funding channels than most non - state - owned peers, and the new issuance and tender offers reflect its confidence in liquidity, making FUTLAN/FTLNHDs attractive for investment [7][8][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - In the new issuance space, ADVANC 31 - 36s tightened 1 - 2bps from ROs, SUMI 31 tightened 6bps from RO at T + 90, SUMI 36 hovered around RO, SUMIBK 41 tightened 3bps, and DAESEC 29 - 31 initially opened 2bps wider but closed 1 - 2bps tighter [2] - In the secondary Chinese IG space, TMT MEITUA/KUAISH/LENOVO/BABA/TENCNT tightened 1 - 3bps, HAOHUA tightened 1 - 2bps, and Taiwan lifers edged 1bp tighter [2] - In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29 retraced 0.2 - 0.5pt, FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26 - 27 rose 0.2 - 0.7pt, and LNGFOR 27 - 32 traded 0.1 - 0.3pt higher [2] - In HK, the NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex is 0.2 - 2.6pts higher, and LASUDE 26 was 0.5pt higher [2] - KR corporate bonds stabilized and tightened 1 - 3bps, JP insurance subs were roughly unchanged, and Yankee AT1s were unchanged to 0.1pt weaker [2] - In SE Asian space, OCBCSP 35s widened 2bps, VEDLN 28 - 33s were unchanged to 0.2pt higher, and VLLPM 27 - 29 gained 0.3 - 1.4pts [2] - In the Middle East, long - end KSAs were up to 0.4pt lower [2] - In LGFV space, profit - taking selling post - CNY was largely digested by RM demand [2] New Bond Information - The new NTT Float 31 tightened 1 - 2bps from RO at SOFR + 90, TOHOKU 31 tightened 5bps from RO at T + 70, OCBCSP 36 tightened 1bp from RO, and existing OCBCSP 35 tightened 2bps [3] - The new CNH INDON 29 - 31 edged 0.1pt higher from ROs, while INDON 36 was unchanged [3] - FUTLAN/FTLNHD: IPT at 13.25% for the new FTLNHD 29 is roughly fair, and FTLNHD 27 rose 1.6pts [3] - CBQKQD 4.5 Perp of USD500mn will be fully redeemed on 9 Mar'26 and was 0.1pt higher [3] Top Performers and Underperformers | Top Performers | Price | Change | Top Underperformers | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | NWDEVL 5 1/4 PERP | 84.3 | 2.6 | ROADKG 5.9 09/05/28 | 22.9 | - 0.9 | | NWDEVL 10.131 PERP | 86.0 | 2.4 | PTTGC 5.2 03/30/52 | 94.2 | - 0.6 | | NWDEVL 4 1/8 PERP | 77.3 | 2.1 | VNKRLE 3.975 11/09/27 | 47.9 | - 0.5 | | NWDEVL 6 1/4 PERP | 67.5 | 1.6 | PTTEPT 3.903 12/06/59 | 76.5 | - 0.4 | | VLLPM 7 1/4 07/20/27 | 51.9 | 1.4 | HIKTSU 6.13 09/18/35 | 101.8 | - 0.4 | [4] Macro News Recap - S&P (+0.81%), Dow (+0.63%) and Nasdaq (+1.26%) were higher on Wednesday, and 2yr UST yield was higher. 2/5/10/30 year yield was at 3.45%/3.61%/4.05%/4.70% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - The FV of the new FTLNHD 29 at 13.25% IPT is roughly fair considering FUTLAN 28's YTW of 13.3% adjusted for tenor differential [7] - Seazen launched tender offers for FTLNHD 26 at 101 and FTLNHD 27 at 98.182. Net proceeds from new bond issuance will fund FTLNHD 26 tender offer, and internal resources will fund FTLNHD 27 tender offer [8] - Holders subscribing to the new bond get priority acceptance in tender offers, and if not specifying allocation, Seazen prioritizes FTLNHD 26 [9] - Seazen has better access to funding channels. Earlier this month, it raised cUSD60.4mn through private share placement, and in 2025, it raised funds from bond markets and issued ABS [10][11] - Seazen's maturity profile is more manageable. It has cRMB7.0bn in public debts due by Dec'26, and refinancing FTLNHD 26 will alleviate near - term pressure [12] Bond Profiles and Tender Offer Summary | Security name | Issuer | Guarantor | Amt o/s (USD mn) | Maturity | Coupon | Px | YTW | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FTLNHD 4 1/2 05/02/26 | New Metro Global | Seazen Group | 404 | 5/2/2026 | 4.50% | 99.6 | 7.0% | | FTLNHD 11.88 09/30/27 | New Metro Global | Seazen Group, Seazen Holdings | 160 | 9/30/2027 | 11.88% | 96.7 | 14.2% | | FUTLAN 11.88 06/26/28 | Seazen Group | N/A | 350 | 6/26/2028 | 11.88% | 98.2 | 13.3% | [13] | Security name | FTLNHD 4 1/2 05/02/26 | FTLNHD 11.88 09/30/27 | | --- | --- | --- | | ISIN | XS2290806285 | XS3192214685 | | Amt o/s (USDmn) | 404 | 160 | | Tender px (USD) | 101.0 | 98.182 | | Maximum acceptance amt (USDmn) | Any and all | 60 - 120 | | Expiration deadline | 5 Mar'26 GMT | | | Settlement date | On or about 10 Mar'26 | | [14] Offshore Asia New Issues Priced | Issuer/Guarantor | Size | Tenor | Coupon | Priced | Issue Rating | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (USD mn) | | | | (M/S/F) | | NTT Finance | 500 | 5yr | SOFR + 90 | SOFR + 90 | A3/A - / - | | Oversea - Chinese Banking Corporation | 500 | 10NC5 | 4.517% | T + 90 | A2/BBB + /A | | Tohoku Electric | 500 | 5yr | 4.324% | T + 70 | - /A - / - | [15] Pipeline | Issuer/Guarantor | Currency | Size (USD mn) | Tenor | Pricing | Issue Rating | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | (M/S/F) | | New Metro Global | USD | - | 3yr | 13.25% | - /B/ - | | Sumitomo Mitsui Trust | USD | - | 3yr/5yr/10yr | T + 80 - 85/T + 90 - 95/T + 105 - 110 | A1/A/ - | [16][17] News and Market Color - 28 credit bonds were issued yesterday with an amount of RMB17bn. Month - to - date, 966 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB745bn, a 22.8% yoy decrease [21] - Hong Kong government to increase luxury property taxes and halt commercial land sales [21] - UAE to exit JPMorgan Emerging Markets Index [21] - CBQKQD to fully redeem USD500mn 4.5 Perp on 9 Mar'26 [21] - SK Hynix to invest KRW21.6tn (cUSD15.0bn) and recorded a loss in derivative trading in 2025 [21] - Republic of Indonesia priced CNH bonds at tightened rates [21] - Moody's changed Mineral Resources' outlook to stable [21] - SK On signed a deal to buy lithium [21] - Vedanta Ltd's board approved raising up to INR30bn via NCDs [21]
固定收益部市场日报-20251105
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-11-05 08:12
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Maintain buy on VEDLN 9.475 07/24/30 due to its all-time high first half recurring EBITDA [3][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, recent USD MEITUA 31 - 35s widened 2 - 4bps with RM selling; TW lifers SHIKON/FUBON/NSINTWs widened 2 - 5bps; BBLTB sub curve was 1 - 4bps wider; JP bank FRNs held up well, JP AT1s dropped by 0.3pt; JP insurance hybrids were marked lower; Yankee AT1s were down by 0.4pt then stabilized; NWDEVL Perps lowered 0.7 - 2.0pts, NWDEVL 27 - 31s were down by 0.6 - 1.3pts; LASUDE 26 was 1.4pts lower; MTRC perps lost up to 0.2pt; VNKRLE 27 - 29 recovered 2.7 - 2.9pts; GRNCH 28 fell by up to 0.5pt; Macau gaming stocks had mixed performance; HYNMTRs/HYUELEs traded 1 - 3bps wider; NTT curve was 1 - 3bps wider; PETMK curve was 2 - 4bps wider on the long end; SMCGL Perps/GARUDA 31 were down by 0.1 - 0.2pt; VEDLN 28 - 33s were 0.3 - 1.1pts lower; onshore AAA - guaranteed LGFV papers were sought after [2] - This morning, new CDBFLC 35 widened 2bps, new QBEAU 37 tightened 3bps, new STANLN PerpNC10 was 0.2pt higher; JP insurance bonds and MTRC Perps were down by 0.1 - 0.3pt; NUFAU 30 rose 0.9pt, SOFTBK 61/65s and NWDEVL 30 were 0.6 - 0.7pt lower; TW lifers widened 2 - 4bps [3] Top Performers and Underperformers - Top performers include VNKRLE 3.975 11/09/27 (price 60.3, change 2.9), VNKRLE 3 1/2 11/12/29 (price 52.0, change 2.7), etc. - Top underperformers include NWDEVL 6 1/4 PERP (price 42.3, change - 2.0), NWDEVL 5 1/4 PERP (price 44.0, change - 1.9), etc. [4] Macro News Recap - On Tuesday, S&P (-1.17%), Dow (-0.53%) and Nasdaq (-2.04%) were lower; UST yield was lower, with 2/5/10/30 year yield at 3.58%/3.69%/4.10%/4.67% [6] Desk Analyst Comments on VEDLN - VEDLN's 2QFY26 recurring EBITDA reached INR116.1bn, up 12% yoy; 1HFY26 EBITDA rose to INR223.6bn, 42% of full - year target of USD6bn; prefer VEDLN 9.475 07/24/30 with YTW of 9.0% and 106bps yield pickup over NICAU 9 09/30/30 [7] - VEDLN's average borrowing cost declined to c9.0% in 1HFY26 from c9.7% in 1QFY26, expected to fall below 8% near - term; PAT dropped 26% yoy to INR79.4bn due to one - off losses [10] - 1HFY26 operating cash flow decreased 12% yoy to INR162.3bn; spent INR102.6bn in capex, 61 - 68% of FY26 target; estimated 1HFY26 FCF was INR59.7bn [11] - As of Sep'25, cash and equivalents increased to INR218.6bn; total debt/LTM EBITDA and net debt/LTM EBITDA rose slightly to 1.9x and 1.4x; aims to bring net leverage down to 1.0x near - term [12] - Deleveraging may face headwinds from JPA acquisition; demerger hearing postponed to 12 Nov'25, seen as moderately credit positive [13] Offshore Asia New Issues - Priced issues include Alinma Sukuk Limited (USD500mn, 10NC5, 5.792%, T + 210), China Development Bank Financial Leasing (USD500mn, 10NC5, 4.6%, T + 93), etc. - Pipeline issues include Gaoxin International Investment (unrated, 3yr, 5.0%), Korea Electric Power Corporation (Aa2/AA/-, 3yr/SOFR + 95, 5yr/T + 80), etc. [17][18] News and Market Color - 99 credit bonds issued yesterday onshore with RMB106bn; MTD, 206 credit bonds issued with RMB190bn, 19.2% yoy increase [20] - Adani Enterprises 1HFY26 EBITDA fell 11% yoy to INR76.9bn, plans to raise INR250bn via rights issue [20] - Adani Ports 1HFY26 EBITDA rose 20% yoy to INR110.5bn, Fitch changed outlook to stable and affirmed BBB - rating [20] - China to boost subsidies for Alibaba, Tencent to cut data center energy bills [20] - Moody's upgraded Bharti Airtel to Baa2 from Baa3, outlook to stable [20] - GLP China repurchased USD205mn of GLPCHI 2.95 03/29/26, USD495mn outstanding [20] - Nickel Industries to hold non - deal roadshow on 19 Nov'25 [20] - Petron 9M25 revenue fell 10% yoy to PHP594.9bn [20] - Pertamina Geothermal targets 6.1% revenue increase for FY26 [20] - SK Telecom plans full - scale AI infrastructure expansion [20]