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东鹏饮料(605499):“特饮”、“补水啦”双引擎快速成长,盈利能力继续显著提升
Haitong Securities International· 2025-03-14 05:04
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of 309.05 RMB per share based on a 35x PE valuation for 2025 [7][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 15.84 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 40.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.33 billion RMB, up 63.09% year-over-year [12]. - The company plans to achieve at least 20% growth in both revenue and net profit for 2025 [12]. - The growth in revenue and profitability is driven by a refined channel strategy and the successful launch of new products, including the 500ml gold bottle and "Dongpeng Hydration" [12]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 20.65 billion RMB, 25.81 billion RMB, and 31.47 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][12]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: Expected net profits attributable to shareholders are 4.59 billion RMB, 6.08 billion RMB, and 7.60 billion RMB for the same years [7][12]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.83 RMB, 11.69 RMB, and 14.62 RMB respectively [7][12]. - **Gross Profit Margin**: The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 44.8% in 2024 to 48.4% by 2027 [10]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on a "dual-engine + multi-category" product strategy, strengthening its position in the energy drinks market while expanding into new categories such as electrolyte drinks and sugar-free teas [12]. - The core product, "Dongpeng Special Drink," achieved revenue of 13.30 billion RMB in 2024, with a market share increase in the energy drink segment from 43.0% in 2023 to 47.9% in 2024 [3][12]. - The "Dongpeng Hydration" product line generated nearly 1.5 billion RMB in revenue in 2024, marking a significant market entry with a year-over-year sales growth of 280.37% [3][12]. Regional and Channel Expansion - The company has implemented a nationwide strategy, achieving significant revenue growth across various regions, with the East and Central regions seeing increases of 45.13% and 48.17% respectively [5][12]. - Online sales channels have also seen rapid growth, with revenue increasing by 116.95% in 2024 [5][12]. - The company has established a comprehensive distribution network with over 3,000 distributors and nearly 400,000 active retail outlets nationwide [6][12].