智通财经记者 | 卢奕贝 智通财经编辑 | 牙韩翔 "补水啦"卖爆后，东鹏饮料正在尝试翻开新的牌面。 在近日于全国多地陆续举办的经销商会议上，东鹏披露了2026年将主推的"1+6"产品矩阵。其中能量饮料"东鹏特饮"仍为其基本盘，而电解质饮料"补水 啦"、有糖茶"果之茶"、椰汁饮料"海岛椰"、即饮奶茶"港氏奶茶"、无糖茶饮料"上茶"和咖啡饮料"大咖"则为东鹏押注的6大潜力品类。 值得注意的是，果之茶、港式奶茶分别于今年2月、10月推出，目前它们已站上"1+6"矩阵的C位，取代了此前矩阵中的植物饮料"菊花蜜"、预调鸡尾 酒"VIVI"。 东鹏饮料方面告诉智通财经，在产品品类方面，公司目前无糖茶、咖啡、椰奶、果汁茶等都有涉及，在市场有需求的情况下，公司发展多品类，可借助现有 渠道资源实现快速铺货。销售上果汁茶终端反馈是不错的，港式奶茶才刚刚推出，暂无数据披露。 上图为此前产品矩阵，2026年果之茶、港式奶茶取代了菊花蜜、鸡尾酒 图片来源：东鹏官网 有糖即饮茶，是饮料领域大品类的低调王者，是国内市场规模超过150亿元的超级赛道。马上赢数据显示，同样是在饮料类目中，有糖茶的规模在202307- 202506始终高于无糖 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Energy Drink Industry Industry Overview - The energy drink industry is experiencing significant growth, with the company achieving a sales revenue of 20.0213 billion yuan in the fiscal year 2025, close to the challenge target of 21.5 billion yuan [1][3] - The fiscal year 2026 sales targets are set at a basic target of 27.1 billion yuan, an execution target of 28 billion yuan, and a challenge target of 29 billion yuan, requiring a growth rate of 34.7% [1][5] Key Product Categories Energy Drinks - Sales for energy drinks reached 16.553 billion yuan in fiscal year 2025, with targets for 2026 set at 20 billion yuan (basic), 20.4 billion yuan (execution), and 21 billion yuan (challenge) [1][7] - The strategy focuses on single-point increments, promoting a 12-pack of 250 ml gift boxes, and shifting channel focus from rural to high-end locations such as offices and gyms [1][6] Hydration Products - Hydration products performed well, achieving 2.932 billion yuan in sales for fiscal year 2025, with targets for 2026 set at 4 billion yuan (basic), 4.3 billion yuan (execution), and 4.6 billion yuan (challenge) [1][8] - The company plans to expand its network from 3.42 million to 4 million points in 2026, with an overall target of 4.95 million points [1][8] Juice Tea - Juice tea, launched in February, generated 503 million yuan in sales by October, with 2026 targets of 700 million yuan (basic), 800 million yuan (execution), and 1 billion yuan (challenge) [1][9] - Currently, only energy drinks, hydration products, and juice tea have surpassed the 500 million yuan sales threshold [1][9] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to increase its own freezer deployment to 60,000 units in 2026, despite facing competitive market pressures [1][13] - The focus will be on channel construction, particularly in campuses, office buildings, and breakfast/afternoon tea markets, promoting zero-sugar and zero-calorie products to attract white-collar and fitness consumers [2][6] Financial Management - The company expects a decrease in expense ratio by 0.3 percentage points in fiscal year 2026, despite increased terminal construction costs and high costs for self-owned freezers [4][14] - As of October, the overall inventory coefficient was 2.6, corresponding to approximately 78 days of inventory, which is stable compared to the previous year [4][18] Market Dynamics - The energy drink market holds nearly 80% market share, followed by hydration products and juice tea [10] - Seasonal impacts are noted, with energy drinks performing well overall, while other categories like hydration products showed declines in October [21][22] Organizational Adjustments - The company is restructuring its organization to enhance operational efficiency, particularly in larger regions, by dividing them into smaller management units [16][17] Conclusion - The energy drink industry is poised for growth with ambitious targets for 2026, focusing on product innovation, strategic channel development, and effective inventory management to navigate competitive pressures and seasonal fluctuations [1][2][10]

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage's revenue is heavily reliant on energy drinks, accounting for at least 70% of its income, which raises concerns about its product diversification despite strong financial performance [2][3][5]. Financial Performance - Dongpeng Beverage's revenue and profit have shown an upward trend during the reporting period, with revenues of 85 billion RMB, 112.57 billion RMB, 158.3 billion RMB, and 107.32 billion RMB, and profits of 14.41 billion RMB, 20.4 billion RMB, 33.26 billion RMB, and 23.75 billion RMB respectively [4][11]. - The compound annual growth rates for revenue and profit from 2022 to 2024 are 36.47% and 51.92% respectively [4]. Dividend Policy - The company has distributed a total of 54 billion RMB in dividends during the reporting period, which represents 58.81% of its total profit of 91.82 billion RMB [5][7]. - The dividend amounts for the years were 8 billion RMB, 10 billion RMB, 23 billion RMB, and 13 billion RMB [5]. IPO and Fundraising - Dongpeng Beverage is pursuing an IPO in Hong Kong to raise funds for capacity expansion, supply chain upgrades, brand building, and market expansion, despite having substantial cash reserves [7][8]. - As of the end of 2023, the company had over 60 billion RMB in cash and cash equivalents, and projected to exceed 100 billion RMB in cash-like assets by 2024 and the first half of 2025 [8][10]. Market Position - According to Frost & Sullivan, Dongpeng Beverage has maintained its position as the leading functional beverage brand in China by sales volume for four consecutive years, with a market share of 26.3% in 2024 [5].

Group 1 - BrandFinance's report ranks Eastroc (东鹏饮料) among the top ten global non-alcoholic beverage brands for the first time, with a brand value of $3.1 billion, highlighting the strength of Chinese beverage brands on the international stage [1][2] - The report indicates that Chinese brands are increasingly important in the global food and beverage market due to rapid growth and strong leadership across categories [3] - Eastroc has significantly increased its market share in the domestic functional beverage sector and is accelerating its expansion into Southeast Asia [3] Group 2 - Eastroc's product portfolio includes high-quality offerings such as Eastroc Energy Drink, Eastroc Hydration, Eastroc Coffee, and various tea products, catering to diverse consumer needs [3] - The company has exported products to 25 countries and regions, leveraging international events like the Asian Games and World Cup to enhance brand visibility [3] - In 2024, Eastroc's revenue is projected to reach 15.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 40%, demonstrating strong brand resilience and high-quality growth [3]

Core Insights - Dongpeng Beverage has established a vast sales network covering over 4.2 million active terminal points across China, reaching more than 250 million unique consumers [1][4][12] - The company aims to achieve a "drink whenever you want" consumer experience by ensuring product availability in various locations [2][5] - Dongpeng is transitioning from a single product focus to a multi-category ecosystem, enhancing its brand positioning in the market [4][5][10] Distribution Network - Dongpeng has built a deep and extensive channel network, with over 3,200 distributors and significant growth in sales points compared to previous years [1][4] - The company is exploring new channels such as dining, social e-commerce, and live streaming, while also deploying smart vending machines in high-frequency consumption areas [4][10] - The "frozen display" strategy is emphasized as a key tactic for enhancing product visibility and sales conversion [10][15] Product Strategy - New product launches like "Brewed Coconut" and "Electrolyte Water" are aimed at capturing emerging consumer trends in health and wellness [5][7] - The introduction of sugar-free drinks targets the growing health-conscious demographic, injecting new vitality into the core brand [5][7] Digital Transformation - Dongpeng has implemented a digital ecosystem that integrates production, warehousing, logistics, and channels, enhancing operational efficiency [8][12] - The company has developed a comprehensive digital management system to analyze consumer data and optimize marketing strategies [8][12] International Expansion - Dongpeng is leveraging its domestic market experience to expand into Southeast Asia, establishing partnerships with local distributors and retailers [14] - The company is also exploring AI technology to improve customer service and enhance product recognition capabilities [14] Channel Ecosystem - The "channel profit-sharing" mechanism is designed to create a symbiotic relationship among manufacturers, distributors, and retailers, promoting long-term network health [15] - Dongpeng's extensive terminal network is seen as a model for deep market penetration in the fast-moving consumer goods sector [15]

Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call pertains to Dongpeng Beverage, a leading player in China's energy drink industry, focusing on consumer-centric strategies and continuous innovation. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Share and Sales Growth** - Dongpeng Beverage's market share by sales volume increased to 47.9% - The electrolyte drink product, Dongpeng Water, generated revenue of 1.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 280% - The company maintains stable relationships with over 3,000 distributors and has nearly 4 million active sales outlets [2][15] 2. **Brand Recognition and Expansion** - Dongpeng Beverage was selected for CCTV's Strong Country Brand Project, enhancing brand recognition and reputation - The company has expanded its production capacity to over 4.8 million tons and is applying a comprehensive digital system to drive production and sales coordination [3][15] 3. **Product Innovation and Development** - The company has introduced 23 new patents, reinforcing its technological barriers in health drinks - Future plans include increasing R&D investment to meet consumer health demands [4][15] 4. **Sales Performance** - In 2024, Dongpeng Beverage achieved revenue of 15.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 40.6% - Energy drinks generated revenue of 13.3 billion yuan, up 28.5%, while electrolyte drinks contributed nearly 1.5 billion yuan, reflecting strong growth in core products [15][16] 5. **Geographical Revenue Distribution** - Revenue from non-Guangdong regions increased from 67% in 2023 to 72% in 2024 - The company’s revenue distribution in Guangdong was 27.6%, with East and Central China contributing 13.9% and 13.1%, respectively [16] 6. **Profitability and Financial Health** - Gross margin improved from 43.1% in 2023 to 44.8% in 2024 - Net profit margin rose to 21%, up from 18.1% in 2023, indicating enhanced profitability [16][17] 7. **Cash Flow and Investment** - Operating cash flow reached 5.79 billion yuan, significantly up from 3.28 billion yuan in 2023 - The company invested 1.69 billion yuan in long-term assets, focusing on production base construction and equipment upgrades [17][18] 8. **Shareholder Returns** - Dongpeng Beverage plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.5 yuan per share, totaling approximately 1.3 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 69.1% - Return on equity (ROE) reached 46.9% in 2024 [19] 9. **Future Strategies** - The company aims to enhance its international market presence and brand influence through strategic partnerships - Continued focus on digital transformation and brand building to improve operational efficiency and market reach [21][22] Other Important Content - The company emphasizes the importance of a stable and efficient supply chain, leveraging digital technologies for procurement, production, and logistics management [11][12] - Dongpeng Beverage is actively exploring new sales channels, including the restaurant sector, and has successfully entered 25 countries, including Vietnam and Malaysia [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of 309.05 RMB per share based on a 35x PE valuation for 2025 [7][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 15.84 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 40.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.33 billion RMB, up 63.09% year-over-year [12]. - The company plans to achieve at least 20% growth in both revenue and net profit for 2025 [12]. - The growth in revenue and profitability is driven by a refined channel strategy and the successful launch of new products, including the 500ml gold bottle and "Dongpeng Hydration" [12]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 20.65 billion RMB, 25.81 billion RMB, and 31.47 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][12]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: Expected net profits attributable to shareholders are 4.59 billion RMB, 6.08 billion RMB, and 7.60 billion RMB for the same years [7][12]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.83 RMB, 11.69 RMB, and 14.62 RMB respectively [7][12]. - **Gross Profit Margin**: The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 44.8% in 2024 to 48.4% by 2027 [10]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on a "dual-engine + multi-category" product strategy, strengthening its position in the energy drinks market while expanding into new categories such as electrolyte drinks and sugar-free teas [12]. - The core product, "Dongpeng Special Drink," achieved revenue of 13.30 billion RMB in 2024, with a market share increase in the energy drink segment from 43.0% in 2023 to 47.9% in 2024 [3][12]. - The "Dongpeng Hydration" product line generated nearly 1.5 billion RMB in revenue in 2024, marking a significant market entry with a year-over-year sales growth of 280.37% [3][12]. Regional and Channel Expansion - The company has implemented a nationwide strategy, achieving significant revenue growth across various regions, with the East and Central regions seeing increases of 45.13% and 48.17% respectively [5][12]. - Online sales channels have also seen rapid growth, with revenue increasing by 116.95% in 2024 [5][12]. - The company has established a comprehensive distribution network with over 3,000 distributors and nearly 400,000 active retail outlets nationwide [6][12].

Core Viewpoint - The beverage industry has seen a decline of nearly 10% since January 2024, while Dongpeng Beverage has experienced an increase of over 80%, establishing itself as a leader in the energy drink sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - Dongpeng Beverage reported a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.63%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company's energy drink market share rose from 43% in 2023 to 47.9% in 2024, with sales accounting for over 34.9% of the market [7]. Market Dynamics - Despite strong financial results, Dongpeng's stock price has declined by over 10% since the announcement of its earnings forecast, indicating that the market had already priced in the expected growth [9][10]. - The company's dividend plan has sparked controversy, as the founder's family will receive approximately 67% of the total dividend payout, raising concerns about the concentration of ownership and potential motives behind the dividend policy [14][15]. Shareholder Activity - Dongpeng has seen significant shareholder and executive sell-offs, with over 41 billion yuan in cash being extracted through multiple rounds of share reductions since its IPO [16][19]. - The frequency of these sell-offs may reflect a lack of confidence in the company's future performance, contributing to market volatility [20]. Strategic Expansion - Dongpeng is pursuing a multi-category strategy, with its electrolyte drink "Dongpeng Water" showing significant growth, achieving a sales increase of 280.37% in 2024, and capturing a market share of 6.7% [29][30]. - The company is also expanding internationally, with products exported to 25 countries and regions, potentially generating sales of 13.6 to 21.3 billion yuan from overseas markets [50][51]. Competitive Landscape - Dongpeng aims to position itself similarly to Nongfu Spring rather than just competing with Red Bull, as it diversifies its product offerings beyond energy drinks [25][26]. - The electrolyte water market has grown significantly, from 900 million yuan in 2020 to 7 billion yuan in 2023, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards healthier options [28]. Research and Development - Dongpeng's R&D expenditure is relatively low at 0.63 billion yuan, accounting for only 0.4% of total revenue, which is less than other beverage giants like Nongfu Spring [39][40]. - The company's ability to adapt to changing consumer demands and market trends is seen as a key strength, despite the low R&D investment [42][44]. Valuation Perspective - Dongpeng's current PE ratio stands at 35.43, higher than the industry average of 28, but is considered reasonable given its strong growth trajectory and market expansion efforts [52][53]. - The company has maintained an average net profit growth rate of 55% over the past three years, which supports its valuation despite short-term stock price fluctuations [54].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][11] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong revenue and profit growth, with a projected revenue increase of over 20% for 2025 [6][11] - The dual-engine growth strategy through "Energy Drinks" and "Electrolyte Drinks" has significantly enhanced profitability [5][6] - The company is expanding its product matrix with innovative offerings across various beverage categories, including sugar-free tea and plant-based drinks [8][9] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 11,263 million yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 32.4% [5] - The projected revenue for 2024 is 15,839 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 40.6% [5] - Net profit for 2023 was 2,040 million yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 41.6% [5] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 3,327 million yuan, indicating a growth of 63.1% [5] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 43.1% in 2023 to 48.4% by 2027 [5] Product Performance - The "Energy Drink" segment achieved revenue of 13,304 million yuan in 2024, with a year-over-year growth of 28.49% [7] - "Electrolyte Drink" sales reached nearly 1.5 billion yuan in 2024, marking a significant market entry [7] - Other beverage categories saw a revenue increase of 103.19% in 2024, with a gross margin improvement of 13.3 percentage points [8] Market Expansion - The company is actively pursuing a nationwide strategy, with significant revenue growth in various regions, including a 45.13% increase in East China [9] - Online sales channels have seen rapid growth, achieving 4.45 billion yuan in revenue, a year-over-year increase of 116.95% [9] - The company has established a comprehensive distribution network with over 3,000 distributors and nearly 4 million active retail outlets [10] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 20,650 million yuan, 25,813 million yuan, and 31,469 million yuan respectively [11] - Corresponding net profit projections for the same years are 4,594 million yuan, 6,076 million yuan, and 7,604 million yuan [11] - The estimated EPS for 2025 is 8.83 yuan per share, with a projected PE ratio of 30-35 times [11]