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理想汽车-W:系列点评六:2024营收稳健增长2025纯电+智驾驱动-20250316
Minsheng Securities· 2025-03-15 14:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 113.20 per share [2][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of CNY 144.46 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be CNY 8.03 billion, a decrease of 32.0% year-on-year [1][8]. - The company is focusing on electric vehicles and intelligent driving technology, with new models set to launch in 2025, which are anticipated to drive sales growth [7][8]. Revenue Summary - In Q4 2024, total revenue reached CNY 44.27 billion, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.1% and 3.3%, respectively. The automotive business revenue was approximately CNY 42.64 billion, also showing growth [1][2]. - The average selling price (ASP) decreased slightly from CNY 270,000 in Q3 2024 to CNY 269,000 in Q4 2024, influenced by changes in product mix and customer interest subsidies [2][3]. Profit Summary - The automotive business gross profit for Q4 2024 was CNY 8.39 billion, with a gross margin of 19.7%, reflecting a decline compared to the previous year [3]. - The operating profit for Q4 2024 was CNY 3.70 billion, with an operating margin of 8.4%, showing slight improvements year-on-year [3]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company reported a net cash inflow from operating activities of CNY 8.7 billion in Q4 2024, with free cash flow of CNY 6.1 billion [6]. - As of March 11, 2025, the company has established a robust charging network with 1,900 supercharging stations and 10,160 charging piles across 31 provinces and 214 cities [6]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries to be between 88,000 and 93,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.5% to 15.7% [6]. - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are CNY 165.36 billion, CNY 202.45 billion, and CNY 222.69 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to grow significantly [8][10].
理想汽车-W(02015):2024营收稳健增长,2025纯电+智驾驱动
Minsheng Securities· 2025-03-15 13:56
理想汽车(2015.HK)系列点评六 1.理想汽车(2015.HK)系列点评五:2024Q 3 毛利亮眼 智驾加速推进-2024/11/01 2.理想汽车(2015.HK)系列点评四:2024Q 2 毛利超预期 智驾加速推进-2024/08/30 3.理想汽车系列点评三:2024Q1 毛利维持健 康 静待纯电产品优化-2024/05/22 4.理想汽车系列点评二:理想 MEGA 发布 再 续强势产品周期-2024/03/02 5.理想汽车系列点评一:2023Q4 业绩大超预 期 新品周期持续强势-2024/02/28 ➢ 营收稳定增长 毛利保持健康 营 收 端 : 2024Q4 公 司 总 营 收 为 442.7 亿 元 , 同 比 / 环 比 分 别 为 +6.1%/+3.3%;其中 2024Q4 汽车业务收入约为 426.4 亿元,同比/环比分别为 +5.6%/+3.2%。车辆销售收入较 2023 年四季度及 2024 年三季度车辆销售收入 增长均主要由于交付量增加,但前者因产品组合变化、后者因客户利息补贴致使 平均售价下滑,部分抵消了增长态势。整体 ASP 由 2024Q3 的 27.0 万元下降至 2 ...