Core Insights - Heavy asset, low obsolescence stocks are gaining popularity on Wall Street as investors seek to hedge against AI disruption [2] - The Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) has increased by 16% year-to-date, outperforming the expected annual return of the S&P 500 [2] - HALO stocks, including major players like Exxon-Mobil and Walmart, have shown strong performance, with respective stock increases of 26% and 10% year-to-date [3] Investment Trends - Advisors are shifting focus towards HALO stocks due to their relative cost-effectiveness compared to mega-cap tech stocks [2][3] - ETFs with allocations to HALO stocks have generally performed well, indicating a trend away from mega-cap tech [3] - The American Beacon GLG Natural Resources ETF (MGNR) is up 14% year-to-date, while the VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) has increased by 3.63% [4] Market Analysis - The valuation gap between HALO stocks and mega-cap tech stocks remains significant, suggesting potential for continued investment in HALO stocks [3] - HALO stocks are characterized by high free cash flow yields, decent dividends, and stock buybacks, making them attractive to investors [3] - Concerns about an AI bubble are not seen as the primary reason for the retreat from big-name tech stocks, as their earnings have grown alongside stock prices [3]

Core Insights - Retail sales in January 2026 decreased by 0.2%, which is better than the expected decline of 0.3% and follows a flat reading in December 2025 [1] - Total retail and food services sales for January 2026 were estimated at $733.5 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.2% [1] - Retail trade sales also fell by 0.2% from December 2025 but showed a 3.0% increase compared to the previous year [1] Retail Sales Breakdown - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, remained flat in January, unchanged from December's reading, and were lower than the expected growth of 0.1% [1] - Year-over-year, core retail sales increased by 3.9% [1] - Retail sales control purchases, which exclude motor vehicles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, rose by 0.3% in January, surpassing the expected growth of 0.2% [1] Long-term Trends - Monthly retail sales have been above historical regression lines since March 2021, indicating sustained consumer spending likely due to pent-up demand from the pandemic [1] - Current control purchases are up 4.9% compared to one year ago, showing reduced volatility compared to headline retail sales [1] - The year-over-year percent change in retail sales indicates a consistent upward trend, with current sales up 3.2% compared to the previous year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's stock is experiencing a significant decline, with a 16.5% drop for the month ending February 10, largely due to the announcement of a $200 billion investment in artificial intelligence [1][2] Financial Performance - The company's stock has only increased by 25.3% over the past five years, which is underwhelming compared to the returns of the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 [2] - Concerns are rising regarding how Amazon will finance its AI investments, with discussions suggesting that these expenditures could lead to cash-flow-negative conditions [2] Growth Potential - Despite current challenges, AI investments could serve as a catalyst for Amazon Web Services (AWS), which is a significant part of the company's growth strategy [4] - Amazon's advertising business saw a year-over-year growth of 22% in the fourth quarter, indicating it may be an underappreciated growth driver [4] Investment Options - For investors looking to gain exposure to Amazon without directly investing in the stock, several exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are available, with the Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF allocating 21.2% to Amazon [6] - The Vanguard ETF is noted for its low annual expense ratio of 0.09%, making it a practical choice for long-term investors [7] - The VanEck Retail ETF also has a significant allocation to Amazon, with a 17.2% weight, highlighting the company's dominance in online retail [8]

Core Insights - U.S. retail sales were flat in December 2025, unchanged from the previous month and below the expected growth of 0.4% [1] - Total retail sales for December 2025 were $735.0 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 2.4%, the smallest annual growth since September 2024 [1] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, were also flat in December, with a year-over-year increase of 3.3%, marking the smallest annual growth since November 2024 [1] Retail Sales Performance - Retail trade sales remained virtually unchanged from November 2025, with a year-over-year increase of 2.1% [1] - Nonstore retailers experienced a significant year-over-year increase of 5.3%, while food service and drinking places saw a 4.7% increase compared to December 2024 [1] - The period from October 2025 to December 2025 showed total sales up 3.0% compared to the same period a year ago [1] Control Purchases Analysis - Retail sales control purchases, which exclude motor vehicles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, fell by 0.1% in December, down from November's 0.2% increase [1] - Year-over-year control purchases increased by 3.5%, the smallest annual growth since August 2024 [1] - The control purchases series is considered a more consistent and reliable economic indicator compared to headline retail sales [1]

Core Insights - The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) has reached a 52-week high and is up 28.2% from its 52-week low price of $206.24 per share [1] Group 1: Fund Overview - RTH provides exposure to various retail sectors, including retail distribution, wholesalers, online and direct mail retailers, multi-line retailers, specialty retailers, and food and staples retailers [2] - The fund charges an annual fee of 35 basis points [2] Group 2: Performance Drivers - The rise in RTH's value is attributed to strong performances from major holdings such as Amazon, Walmart, and Costco, alongside robust consumer spending data indicating rising retail sales and expanding digital marketing [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - RTH is expected to maintain its strong performance in the near term, supported by a positive weighted alpha of 16.75, suggesting potential for further gains [4]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks ended the last session slightly lower after five consecutive days of gains, marking the second day of the seasonal "Santa Claus rally" with the S&P 500 up about 2%, Dow Jones gaining 1.5%, and Nasdaq Composite surging 2.0% [1] Santa Claus Rally Momentum - Conditions are favorable for the continuation of the Santa Claus rally, which typically occurs during the last five trading days of December and the first two sessions of January, with historical trends suggesting a positive signal for January and the upcoming year [2][3] Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is described as experiencing a "Goldilocks scenario" with above-potential growth, declining but elevated inflation, and a less robust labor market, indicating a need for balance among these factors [4] - The U.S. GDP rose an annualized 4.3% in Q3 of 2025, the highest in two years, compared to 3.8% in Q2 and forecasts of 3.3% [5] - Consumer spending grew 3.5%, the highest growth so far this year, while the annual inflation rate was reported at 2.7% in December 2025, the lowest since July [6] Investment Opportunities - Mid-Cap: The State Street SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Value ETF (MDYV) is highlighted as a potential investment area, benefiting from improving economic health and a trend of investment rotation from technology stocks [8] - Technology: The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) is positioned well due to reduced recession risks and favorable low-interest rates, which enhance profit margins for tech companies [10] - Banking: The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) is gaining attention as capital market activity improves and the yield curve steepens, supported by strong third-quarter results from banks [11] - Retail: The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) is expected to benefit from solid economic growth and the ongoing holiday season, which positively impacts consumer discretionary spending [12]

Group 1: Consumer Shopping Trends - A record 158.9 million consumers are expected to have shopped on "Super Saturday," reflecting a 1.1% increase from 157.2 million last year and surpassing the previous record of 158.5 million in 2022 [1] - Despite economic challenges, the late-season shopping surge is anticipated to help retailers close the final quarter stronger, supporting earnings growth and ETFs linked to consumer staples and retail benchmarks [2] - Consumers are shifting towards quality and meaningful gifts rather than just seeking discounts, indicating a "tactical consumer" approach amid a "two-speed" economy [4] Group 2: Retail Sales Outlook - Holiday spending is projected to exceed $1 trillion, but growth will primarily be driven by higher prices rather than increased consumer spending, with S&P Global Ratings forecasting a 4% growth in U.S. holiday sales for 2025 [5] - Analysts expect modestly positive retail sales in 2026, influenced by tariff-related inflation and some growth in consumer staples, despite weak discretionary spending [8] Group 3: ETFs Benefiting from Trends - ETFs focusing on consumer staples and those with robust omnichannel networks, such as Walmart and Amazon, are expected to benefit from the current shopping trends and sustained holiday demand [9][10] - Specific ETFs highlighted include: - VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) with assets of $248 million, top holdings in AMZN (19.53%), WMT (11.79%), and COST (8.06%), and an 11.6% year-to-date increase [11] - ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) with an average market cap of $179.17 billion, top holdings in AMZN (23.35%), BABA (11.44%), and EBAY (8.11%), and a 31.9% year-to-date surge [12] - Global X E-commerce ETF (EBIZ) with net assets of $51 million, top holdings in Expedia (6.10%), SHOP (5.57%), and BABA (4.87%), and a 19.4% year-to-date increase [13] - Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA) with net assets of $1.33 billion, top holdings in WMT (14.48%), COST (11.96%), and Procter and Gamble (10.05%), and a 2.4% year-to-date gain [14]

Core Insights - The retail sector is rapidly evolving due to changing consumer behavior, increasing e-commerce, and shifting macroeconomic conditions [1] Group 1: Retail Sector Dynamics - The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) offers investors a convenient way to access the retail segment by bundling various companies together [1] - The retail industry is influenced by a combination of factors including consumer preferences and technological advancements [1] Group 2: Investment Analysis - FinHeim Research specializes in investment analysis and portfolio management, focusing on both traditional companies and technology firms [1] - The firm emphasizes thematic investing research and the creation of thematic ETFs, reflecting a long-term investment strategy [1]

Core Insights - The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for September indicates that consumer spending was lower than expected, with a 0.2% increase in headline sales compared to the anticipated 0.4% growth [1] - Total retail and food services sales for September 2025 reached $733.3 billion, marking a 4.3% increase from September 2024 [1] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, rose by 0.3% in September, down from 0.6% in August, and are up 4.1% year-over-year [4] Retail Sales Performance - Retail trade sales increased by 0.1% from August 2025 and 3.9% from the previous year, with nonstore retailers seeing a 6.0% increase and food service establishments up 6.7% year-over-year [2] - Monthly retail sales have shown consistent growth since March 2021, reflecting pent-up consumer demand post-pandemic, with a year-over-year increase of 4.3% [3] Control Purchases Analysis - Retail sales control purchases, which provide a more stable view of the economy, fell by 0.1% in September, contrasting with the expected 0.3% growth [5] - Year-over-year, control purchases are up 4.2%, indicating a steady trend despite the recent monthly decline [6] Market Implications - The retail sales data is likely to influence interest in various retail-focused ETFs, including SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) and VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) [8]

Core Insights - The State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is a smart beta ETF launched on June 19, 2006, designed to provide broad exposure to the Consumer Discretionary sector [1] - XRT has accumulated over $284.35 million in assets, making it one of the larger ETFs in its category [5] - The fund seeks to match the performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, which is a modified equal weight index representing the retail sub-industry of the S&P Total Market Index [6] Fund Characteristics - XRT has an annual operating expense ratio of 0.35%, positioning it as one of the cheaper options in the ETF space [7] - The fund offers a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 1.33% [7] - The portfolio is heavily allocated to the Consumer Discretionary sector, comprising approximately 78.7% of total assets [8] Holdings and Performance - Etsy Inc (ETSY) is the largest holding, accounting for about 1.77% of total assets, with the top 10 holdings representing around 16.11% of total assets under management [9] - As of November 7, 2025, XRT has experienced a year-to-date loss of approximately -0.37% and a one-year increase of about 1.3% [11] - The fund has a beta of 1.24 and a standard deviation of 23.78% over the trailing three-year period, indicating medium risk [11] Alternatives - Alternatives to XRT include the Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY) and the VanEck Retail ETF (RTH), with respective assets of $147.61 million and $253.07 million [13] - IBUY has an expense ratio of 0.65%, while RTH has an expense ratio of 0.35% [13]