Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut of 2025, reducing the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00-4.25%, with expectations for further cuts later in the year [1][2]. Economic Projections - The Fed has raised its economic growth outlook for 2025 to 1.6% from 1.4% and has also increased GDP growth expectations for 2026 and 2027 to 1.8% and 1.9% respectively [3][4]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.5% this year, with a gradual decline expected to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027 [5]. Market Implications - Value stocks are expected to outperform in a higher-rate environment, while growth stocks may benefit from anticipated rate cuts [7]. - Consumer discretionary ETFs are likely to perform well due to the upcoming holiday season and positive retail sales data [8]. - Small-cap stocks are positioned to gain from lower borrowing costs and an improving domestic economy [9]. - High-income investment options, such as the Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF, are appealing due to their steady income generation [11]. - The AI sector is expected to thrive in a low-rate environment, benefiting AI-focused ETFs [12]. - The hydrogen power industry is projected to grow despite recent production estimates being lowered, indicating a potential opportunity for related ETFs [13][14].

Core Insights - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% in August 2025, matching the revised growth from July and exceeding expectations of 0.2% [1] - Sales excluding certain categories rose by 0.7%, surpassing the anticipated 0.4% [1] Winning Areas - **Online Retailers**: Nonstore retailers experienced a 2% sequential increase and a 10.1% year-over-year gain [3] - ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) tracks online retailers and charges 58 bps in fees [3] - Amazon.com (AMZN) is a major player in e-commerce with a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [4] - **Clothing Stores**: Sales rose by 1% sequentially and 8.3% year over year in August 2025 [5] - SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) provides exposure to U.S. retail stocks, with apparel retail comprising about 21% of the fund and a fee of 35 bps [5] - Genesco (GCO) is a specialty retail company with a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [5] - **Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument, & Books**: This segment saw a 0.8% sequential gain and a 4.7% year-over-year increase [6] - Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) and VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) are suitable for investment in this sector [6] - DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) operates as a sporting goods retailer with a Zacks Rank 3 [7] - **Food Services & Drinking Places**: Sales increased by 0.7% sequentially and 6.5% year over year [8] - AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF (EATZ) invests primarily in restaurant-related companies and charges 99 bps in fees [8] - BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) operates high-end casual dining restaurants and holds a Zacks Rank 1 [9]

Core Insights - The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) has reached a 52-week high, increasing by 23.6% from its 52-week low price of $204.16 per share, indicating strong momentum in the retail sector [1][4] Group 1: ETF Overview - RTH tracks the MVIS US Listed Retail 25 Index, which includes companies involved in various retail distribution channels such as wholesalers, online retailers, and specialty retailers [2] - The ETF charges an annual fee of 35 basis points [2] Group 2: Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales in the United States rose by 0.5% month-over-month in July, totaling $726.3 billion, following a revised increase of 0.9% in June [3] - Year-over-year, retail sales increased by 3.9%, with the back-to-school season contributing to positive market sentiment [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The ETF RTH is expected to maintain its strong performance in the near term, supported by a positive weighted alpha of 22.95, suggesting potential for further gains [4]

Core Insights - The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) is a passively managed fund launched on December 20, 2011, aimed at providing exposure to the Consumer Discretionary - Retail segment of the equity market [1][3] Fund Overview - RTH has accumulated assets of over $252.67 million, categorizing it as an average-sized ETF [3] - The ETF seeks to match the performance of the MVIS US Listed Retail 25 Index, which includes various retail distribution companies [4] Cost Structure - The annual operating expense ratio for RTH is 0.35%, making it one of the more cost-effective options in the market [5] - The ETF has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 0.71% [5] Sector Exposure and Holdings - Approximately 58.3% of RTH's portfolio is allocated to the Consumer Discretionary sector, with Consumer Staples and Healthcare following [6] - Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) constitutes about 20.42% of total assets, with Walmart Inc (WMT) and Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) also among the top holdings [7] - The top 10 holdings represent around 71.58% of total assets under management [7] Performance Metrics - Year-to-date, RTH has returned approximately 9.39%, and it has increased by about 24.22% over the last 12 months as of August 12, 2025 [8] - The ETF has traded between $199.86 and $245.705 in the past 52 weeks, with a beta of 0.89 and a standard deviation of 15.79% over the trailing three-year period, indicating medium risk [8] Alternatives - RTH carries a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting it is a viable option for investors seeking exposure to the Consumer Discretionary ETFs [9] - Other alternatives include the Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY) and the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), with respective assets of $149.21 million and $324.20 million [10]

Retail Sales Overview - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.1% in April following a revised 1.7% increase in March, contrary to economists' expectations of no change [1] - The March increase was influenced by consumers making purchases in anticipation of tariff announcements [1] Sector Performance - The largest increases in April were in food services and drinking places (1.2%), building material and garden equipment supplies (0.8%), furniture (0.3%), and electronics and appliances stores (0.3%) [2] - Sales excluding food services, auto dealers, building materials stores, and gasoline stations decreased by 0.2%, below the revised 0.5% gain in March and forecasts of a 0.3% rise [2] Winning Areas Food Services and Drinking Places - Sales in this sector rose by 1.2% sequentially in April and 7.8% year over year [4] - AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF (EATZ) focuses on companies deriving at least 50% of their revenue from the restaurant business [4] - BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) operates high-end casual dining restaurants and has a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [5] Building Material & Garden Equipment & Supplies Dealers - This segment experienced a 0.8% sequential sales gain and a 3.2% year-over-year increase [6] - Broad-based retail ETFs like Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) and VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) are relevant for this sector [6] - Vulcan Materials (VMC) is the largest supplier of construction aggregates in the U.S. and has a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [7] Electronics & Appliance Stores - Sales in this category increased by 0.3% sequentially in April and 0.1% year over year [8] - The rise in electronics sales is expected to benefit semiconductor funds and stocks [8] - VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) tracks companies involved in semiconductor production and charges 35 bps in fees [8] - Universal Electronics (UEIC) is a leader in universal control and sensing technologies for smart homes and has a Zacks Rank 3 [9]