Core Viewpoint - Amazon's stock is experiencing a significant decline, with a 16.5% drop for the month ending February 10, largely due to the announcement of a $200 billion investment in artificial intelligence [1][2] Financial Performance - The company's stock has only increased by 25.3% over the past five years, which is underwhelming compared to the returns of the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 [2] - Concerns are rising regarding how Amazon will finance its AI investments, with discussions suggesting that these expenditures could lead to cash-flow-negative conditions [2] Growth Potential - Despite current challenges, AI investments could serve as a catalyst for Amazon Web Services (AWS), which is a significant part of the company's growth strategy [4] - Amazon's advertising business saw a year-over-year growth of 22% in the fourth quarter, indicating it may be an underappreciated growth driver [4] Investment Options - For investors looking to gain exposure to Amazon without directly investing in the stock, several exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are available, with the Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF allocating 21.2% to Amazon [6] - The Vanguard ETF is noted for its low annual expense ratio of 0.09%, making it a practical choice for long-term investors [7] - The VanEck Retail ETF also has a significant allocation to Amazon, with a 17.2% weight, highlighting the company's dominance in online retail [8]

Retail Sales Flat in December, Lower Than ExpectedETF Trends is now VettaFi. Read More --The Advance Retail Sales Report from the Census Bureau showed consumer spending was unexpectedly flat in December. Headline sales were unchanged, down from November's 0.6% reading and below the projected 0.4% growth.For an inflation-adjusted perspective on retail sales, take a look at our [Real Retail Sales] commentary.Here is the introduction from [today's report]:Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Adva ...

Core Insights - The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) has reached a 52-week high and is up 28.2% from its 52-week low price of $206.24 per share [1] Group 1: Fund Overview - RTH provides exposure to various retail sectors, including retail distribution, wholesalers, online and direct mail retailers, multi-line retailers, specialty retailers, and food and staples retailers [2] - The fund charges an annual fee of 35 basis points [2] Group 2: Performance Drivers - The rise in RTH's value is attributed to strong performances from major holdings such as Amazon, Walmart, and Costco, alongside robust consumer spending data indicating rising retail sales and expanding digital marketing [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - RTH is expected to maintain its strong performance in the near term, supported by a positive weighted alpha of 16.75, suggesting potential for further gains [4]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks ended the last session slightly lower after five consecutive days of gains, marking the second day of the seasonal "Santa Claus rally" with the S&P 500 up about 2%, Dow Jones gaining 1.5%, and Nasdaq Composite surging 2.0% [1] Santa Claus Rally Momentum - Conditions are favorable for the continuation of the Santa Claus rally, which typically occurs during the last five trading days of December and the first two sessions of January, with historical trends suggesting a positive signal for January and the upcoming year [2][3] Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is described as experiencing a "Goldilocks scenario" with above-potential growth, declining but elevated inflation, and a less robust labor market, indicating a need for balance among these factors [4] - The U.S. GDP rose an annualized 4.3% in Q3 of 2025, the highest in two years, compared to 3.8% in Q2 and forecasts of 3.3% [5] - Consumer spending grew 3.5%, the highest growth so far this year, while the annual inflation rate was reported at 2.7% in December 2025, the lowest since July [6] Investment Opportunities - Mid-Cap: The State Street SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Value ETF (MDYV) is highlighted as a potential investment area, benefiting from improving economic health and a trend of investment rotation from technology stocks [8] - Technology: The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) is positioned well due to reduced recession risks and favorable low-interest rates, which enhance profit margins for tech companies [10] - Banking: The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) is gaining attention as capital market activity improves and the yield curve steepens, supported by strong third-quarter results from banks [11] - Retail: The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) is expected to benefit from solid economic growth and the ongoing holiday season, which positively impacts consumer discretionary spending [12]

Group 1: Consumer Shopping Trends - A record 158.9 million consumers are expected to have shopped on "Super Saturday," reflecting a 1.1% increase from 157.2 million last year and surpassing the previous record of 158.5 million in 2022 [1] - Despite economic challenges, the late-season shopping surge is anticipated to help retailers close the final quarter stronger, supporting earnings growth and ETFs linked to consumer staples and retail benchmarks [2] - Consumers are shifting towards quality and meaningful gifts rather than just seeking discounts, indicating a "tactical consumer" approach amid a "two-speed" economy [4] Group 2: Retail Sales Outlook - Holiday spending is projected to exceed $1 trillion, but growth will primarily be driven by higher prices rather than increased consumer spending, with S&P Global Ratings forecasting a 4% growth in U.S. holiday sales for 2025 [5] - Analysts expect modestly positive retail sales in 2026, influenced by tariff-related inflation and some growth in consumer staples, despite weak discretionary spending [8] Group 3: ETFs Benefiting from Trends - ETFs focusing on consumer staples and those with robust omnichannel networks, such as Walmart and Amazon, are expected to benefit from the current shopping trends and sustained holiday demand [9][10] - Specific ETFs highlighted include: - VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) with assets of $248 million, top holdings in AMZN (19.53%), WMT (11.79%), and COST (8.06%), and an 11.6% year-to-date increase [11] - ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) with an average market cap of $179.17 billion, top holdings in AMZN (23.35%), BABA (11.44%), and EBAY (8.11%), and a 31.9% year-to-date surge [12] - Global X E-commerce ETF (EBIZ) with net assets of $51 million, top holdings in Expedia (6.10%), SHOP (5.57%), and BABA (4.87%), and a 19.4% year-to-date increase [13] - Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA) with net assets of $1.33 billion, top holdings in WMT (14.48%), COST (11.96%), and Procter and Gamble (10.05%), and a 2.4% year-to-date gain [14]

Core Insights - The retail sector is rapidly evolving due to changing consumer behavior, increasing e-commerce, and shifting macroeconomic conditions [1] Group 1: Retail Sector Dynamics - The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) offers investors a convenient way to access the retail segment by bundling various companies together [1] - The retail industry is influenced by a combination of factors including consumer preferences and technological advancements [1] Group 2: Investment Analysis - FinHeim Research specializes in investment analysis and portfolio management, focusing on both traditional companies and technology firms [1] - The firm emphasizes thematic investing research and the creation of thematic ETFs, reflecting a long-term investment strategy [1]

Core Insights - The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for September indicates that consumer spending was lower than expected, with a 0.2% increase in headline sales compared to the anticipated 0.4% growth [1] - Total retail and food services sales for September 2025 reached $733.3 billion, marking a 4.3% increase from September 2024 [1] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, rose by 0.3% in September, down from 0.6% in August, and are up 4.1% year-over-year [4] Retail Sales Performance - Retail trade sales increased by 0.1% from August 2025 and 3.9% from the previous year, with nonstore retailers seeing a 6.0% increase and food service establishments up 6.7% year-over-year [2] - Monthly retail sales have shown consistent growth since March 2021, reflecting pent-up consumer demand post-pandemic, with a year-over-year increase of 4.3% [3] Control Purchases Analysis - Retail sales control purchases, which provide a more stable view of the economy, fell by 0.1% in September, contrasting with the expected 0.3% growth [5] - Year-over-year, control purchases are up 4.2%, indicating a steady trend despite the recent monthly decline [6] Market Implications - The retail sales data is likely to influence interest in various retail-focused ETFs, including SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) and VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) [8]

Core Insights - The State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is a smart beta ETF launched on June 19, 2006, designed to provide broad exposure to the Consumer Discretionary sector [1] - XRT has accumulated over $284.35 million in assets, making it one of the larger ETFs in its category [5] - The fund seeks to match the performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, which is a modified equal weight index representing the retail sub-industry of the S&P Total Market Index [6] Fund Characteristics - XRT has an annual operating expense ratio of 0.35%, positioning it as one of the cheaper options in the ETF space [7] - The fund offers a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 1.33% [7] - The portfolio is heavily allocated to the Consumer Discretionary sector, comprising approximately 78.7% of total assets [8] Holdings and Performance - Etsy Inc (ETSY) is the largest holding, accounting for about 1.77% of total assets, with the top 10 holdings representing around 16.11% of total assets under management [9] - As of November 7, 2025, XRT has experienced a year-to-date loss of approximately -0.37% and a one-year increase of about 1.3% [11] - The fund has a beta of 1.24 and a standard deviation of 23.78% over the trailing three-year period, indicating medium risk [11] Alternatives - Alternatives to XRT include the Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY) and the VanEck Retail ETF (RTH), with respective assets of $147.61 million and $253.07 million [13] - IBUY has an expense ratio of 0.65%, while RTH has an expense ratio of 0.35% [13]

Core Insights - The State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is a passively managed ETF launched on June 19, 2006, providing broad exposure to the Consumer Discretionary - Retail segment of the equity market [1][3] - The ETF has assets over $240.88 million and aims to match the performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index [3][4] - The ETF has an annual operating expense ratio of 0.35% and a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 1.3% [5] Sector Overview - The Consumer Discretionary - Retail sector is ranked 8th among the 16 Zacks sectors, placing it in the top 50% [2] - The ETF has a significant allocation of approximately 78.4% in the Consumer Discretionary sector, followed by Consumer Staples [6] Holdings and Performance - Etsy Inc (ETSY) is the largest holding at about 1.77% of total assets, with the top 10 holdings accounting for approximately 16.11% of total assets [7] - The ETF has gained about 2.64% year-to-date and approximately 6.45% over the past year, with a trading range between $62.11 and $88.49 in the last 52 weeks [8] Risk Assessment - The ETF has a beta of 1.24 and a standard deviation of 23.73% over the trailing three-year period, indicating a medium risk profile [8] Alternatives - Alternatives to XRT include the Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY) and the VanEck Retail ETF (RTH), with IBUY having $153.02 million in assets and RTH having $255.46 million [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut of 2025, reducing the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00-4.25%, with expectations for further cuts later in the year [1][2]. Economic Projections - The Fed has raised its economic growth outlook for 2025 to 1.6% from 1.4% and has also increased GDP growth expectations for 2026 and 2027 to 1.8% and 1.9% respectively [3][4]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.5% this year, with a gradual decline expected to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027 [5]. Market Implications - Value stocks are expected to outperform in a higher-rate environment, while growth stocks may benefit from anticipated rate cuts [7]. - Consumer discretionary ETFs are likely to perform well due to the upcoming holiday season and positive retail sales data [8]. - Small-cap stocks are positioned to gain from lower borrowing costs and an improving domestic economy [9]. - High-income investment options, such as the Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF, are appealing due to their steady income generation [11]. - The AI sector is expected to thrive in a low-rate environment, benefiting AI-focused ETFs [12]. - The hydrogen power industry is projected to grow despite recent production estimates being lowered, indicating a potential opportunity for related ETFs [13][14].