Market Overview - U.S. stocks ended the last session slightly lower after five consecutive days of gains, marking the second day of the seasonal "Santa Claus rally" with the S&P 500 up about 2%, Dow Jones gaining 1.5%, and Nasdaq Composite surging 2.0% [1] Santa Claus Rally Momentum - Conditions are favorable for the continuation of the Santa Claus rally, which typically occurs during the last five trading days of December and the first two sessions of January, with historical trends suggesting a positive signal for January and the upcoming year [2][3] Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is described as experiencing a "Goldilocks scenario" with above-potential growth, declining but elevated inflation, and a less robust labor market, indicating a need for balance among these factors [4] - The U.S. GDP rose an annualized 4.3% in Q3 of 2025, the highest in two years, compared to 3.8% in Q2 and forecasts of 3.3% [5] - Consumer spending grew 3.5%, the highest growth so far this year, while the annual inflation rate was reported at 2.7% in December 2025, the lowest since July [6] Investment Opportunities - Mid-Cap: The State Street SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Value ETF (MDYV) is highlighted as a potential investment area, benefiting from improving economic health and a trend of investment rotation from technology stocks [8] - Technology: The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) is positioned well due to reduced recession risks and favorable low-interest rates, which enhance profit margins for tech companies [10] - Banking: The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) is gaining attention as capital market activity improves and the yield curve steepens, supported by strong third-quarter results from banks [11] - Retail: The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) is expected to benefit from solid economic growth and the ongoing holiday season, which positively impacts consumer discretionary spending [12]

Key Takeaways NRF estimates 158.9 million shoppers took part in Super Saturday, setting a new record.Late-season shopping strength may support ETFs tied to retail, e-commerce and consumer staples stocks. RTH and EBIZ stand to benefit from resilient mega-cap retailers and sustained holiday demand. With the final shopping weekend before Christmas now behind us, a record 158.9 million consumers are expected to have shopped on "Super Saturday" — the final Saturday before Christmas, (both in-store and online) ac ...

Core Insights - The retail sector is rapidly evolving due to changing consumer behavior, increasing e-commerce, and shifting macroeconomic conditions [1] Group 1: Retail Sector Dynamics - The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) offers investors a convenient way to access the retail segment by bundling various companies together [1] - The retail industry is influenced by a combination of factors including consumer preferences and technological advancements [1] Group 2: Investment Analysis - FinHeim Research specializes in investment analysis and portfolio management, focusing on both traditional companies and technology firms [1] - The firm emphasizes thematic investing research and the creation of thematic ETFs, reflecting a long-term investment strategy [1]

Core Insights - The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for September indicates that consumer spending was lower than expected, with a 0.2% increase in headline sales compared to the anticipated 0.4% growth [1] - Total retail and food services sales for September 2025 reached $733.3 billion, marking a 4.3% increase from September 2024 [1] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, rose by 0.3% in September, down from 0.6% in August, and are up 4.1% year-over-year [4] Retail Sales Performance - Retail trade sales increased by 0.1% from August 2025 and 3.9% from the previous year, with nonstore retailers seeing a 6.0% increase and food service establishments up 6.7% year-over-year [2] - Monthly retail sales have shown consistent growth since March 2021, reflecting pent-up consumer demand post-pandemic, with a year-over-year increase of 4.3% [3] Control Purchases Analysis - Retail sales control purchases, which provide a more stable view of the economy, fell by 0.1% in September, contrasting with the expected 0.3% growth [5] - Year-over-year, control purchases are up 4.2%, indicating a steady trend despite the recent monthly decline [6] Market Implications - The retail sales data is likely to influence interest in various retail-focused ETFs, including SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) and VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) [8]

Core Insights - The State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is a smart beta ETF launched on June 19, 2006, designed to provide broad exposure to the Consumer Discretionary sector [1] - XRT has accumulated over $284.35 million in assets, making it one of the larger ETFs in its category [5] - The fund seeks to match the performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, which is a modified equal weight index representing the retail sub-industry of the S&P Total Market Index [6] Fund Characteristics - XRT has an annual operating expense ratio of 0.35%, positioning it as one of the cheaper options in the ETF space [7] - The fund offers a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 1.33% [7] - The portfolio is heavily allocated to the Consumer Discretionary sector, comprising approximately 78.7% of total assets [8] Holdings and Performance - Etsy Inc (ETSY) is the largest holding, accounting for about 1.77% of total assets, with the top 10 holdings representing around 16.11% of total assets under management [9] - As of November 7, 2025, XRT has experienced a year-to-date loss of approximately -0.37% and a one-year increase of about 1.3% [11] - The fund has a beta of 1.24 and a standard deviation of 23.78% over the trailing three-year period, indicating medium risk [11] Alternatives - Alternatives to XRT include the Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY) and the VanEck Retail ETF (RTH), with respective assets of $147.61 million and $253.07 million [13] - IBUY has an expense ratio of 0.65%, while RTH has an expense ratio of 0.35% [13]

Core Insights - The State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is a passively managed ETF launched on June 19, 2006, providing broad exposure to the Consumer Discretionary - Retail segment of the equity market [1][3] - The ETF has assets over $240.88 million and aims to match the performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index [3][4] - The ETF has an annual operating expense ratio of 0.35% and a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 1.3% [5] Sector Overview - The Consumer Discretionary - Retail sector is ranked 8th among the 16 Zacks sectors, placing it in the top 50% [2] - The ETF has a significant allocation of approximately 78.4% in the Consumer Discretionary sector, followed by Consumer Staples [6] Holdings and Performance - Etsy Inc (ETSY) is the largest holding at about 1.77% of total assets, with the top 10 holdings accounting for approximately 16.11% of total assets [7] - The ETF has gained about 2.64% year-to-date and approximately 6.45% over the past year, with a trading range between $62.11 and $88.49 in the last 52 weeks [8] Risk Assessment - The ETF has a beta of 1.24 and a standard deviation of 23.73% over the trailing three-year period, indicating a medium risk profile [8] Alternatives - Alternatives to XRT include the Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY) and the VanEck Retail ETF (RTH), with IBUY having $153.02 million in assets and RTH having $255.46 million [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut of 2025, reducing the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00-4.25%, with expectations for further cuts later in the year [1][2]. Economic Projections - The Fed has raised its economic growth outlook for 2025 to 1.6% from 1.4% and has also increased GDP growth expectations for 2026 and 2027 to 1.8% and 1.9% respectively [3][4]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.5% this year, with a gradual decline expected to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027 [5]. Market Implications - Value stocks are expected to outperform in a higher-rate environment, while growth stocks may benefit from anticipated rate cuts [7]. - Consumer discretionary ETFs are likely to perform well due to the upcoming holiday season and positive retail sales data [8]. - Small-cap stocks are positioned to gain from lower borrowing costs and an improving domestic economy [9]. - High-income investment options, such as the Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF, are appealing due to their steady income generation [11]. - The AI sector is expected to thrive in a low-rate environment, benefiting AI-focused ETFs [12]. - The hydrogen power industry is projected to grow despite recent production estimates being lowered, indicating a potential opportunity for related ETFs [13][14].

Core Insights - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% in August 2025, matching the revised growth from July and exceeding expectations of 0.2% [1] - Sales excluding certain categories rose by 0.7%, surpassing the anticipated 0.4% [1] Winning Areas - **Online Retailers**: Nonstore retailers experienced a 2% sequential increase and a 10.1% year-over-year gain [3] - ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) tracks online retailers and charges 58 bps in fees [3] - Amazon.com (AMZN) is a major player in e-commerce with a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [4] - **Clothing Stores**: Sales rose by 1% sequentially and 8.3% year over year in August 2025 [5] - SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) provides exposure to U.S. retail stocks, with apparel retail comprising about 21% of the fund and a fee of 35 bps [5] - Genesco (GCO) is a specialty retail company with a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [5] - **Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument, & Books**: This segment saw a 0.8% sequential gain and a 4.7% year-over-year increase [6] - Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) and VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) are suitable for investment in this sector [6] - DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) operates as a sporting goods retailer with a Zacks Rank 3 [7] - **Food Services & Drinking Places**: Sales increased by 0.7% sequentially and 6.5% year over year [8] - AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF (EATZ) invests primarily in restaurant-related companies and charges 99 bps in fees [8] - BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) operates high-end casual dining restaurants and holds a Zacks Rank 1 [9]

Core Insights - The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) has reached a 52-week high, increasing by 23.6% from its 52-week low price of $204.16 per share, indicating strong momentum in the retail sector [1][4] Group 1: ETF Overview - RTH tracks the MVIS US Listed Retail 25 Index, which includes companies involved in various retail distribution channels such as wholesalers, online retailers, and specialty retailers [2] - The ETF charges an annual fee of 35 basis points [2] Group 2: Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales in the United States rose by 0.5% month-over-month in July, totaling $726.3 billion, following a revised increase of 0.9% in June [3] - Year-over-year, retail sales increased by 3.9%, with the back-to-school season contributing to positive market sentiment [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The ETF RTH is expected to maintain its strong performance in the near term, supported by a positive weighted alpha of 22.95, suggesting potential for further gains [4]

Core Insights - The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) is a passively managed fund launched on December 20, 2011, aimed at providing exposure to the Consumer Discretionary - Retail segment of the equity market [1][3] Fund Overview - RTH has accumulated assets of over $252.67 million, categorizing it as an average-sized ETF [3] - The ETF seeks to match the performance of the MVIS US Listed Retail 25 Index, which includes various retail distribution companies [4] Cost Structure - The annual operating expense ratio for RTH is 0.35%, making it one of the more cost-effective options in the market [5] - The ETF has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 0.71% [5] Sector Exposure and Holdings - Approximately 58.3% of RTH's portfolio is allocated to the Consumer Discretionary sector, with Consumer Staples and Healthcare following [6] - Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) constitutes about 20.42% of total assets, with Walmart Inc (WMT) and Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) also among the top holdings [7] - The top 10 holdings represent around 71.58% of total assets under management [7] Performance Metrics - Year-to-date, RTH has returned approximately 9.39%, and it has increased by about 24.22% over the last 12 months as of August 12, 2025 [8] - The ETF has traded between $199.86 and $245.705 in the past 52 weeks, with a beta of 0.89 and a standard deviation of 15.79% over the trailing three-year period, indicating medium risk [8] Alternatives - RTH carries a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting it is a viable option for investors seeking exposure to the Consumer Discretionary ETFs [9] - Other alternatives include the Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY) and the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), with respective assets of $149.21 million and $324.20 million [10]