Core Viewpoint - The holiday shopping season in the U.S. is expected to be more rational this year, with consumers facing economic concerns such as a cooling job market, stagnant wage growth, and persistent inflation, leading to a potential decline in product sales despite stable overall spending [1][4]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are expected to be more selective in their purchases, with many planning to use Black Friday promotions to stock up on essentials rather than indulge in luxury items [2][7]. - The top 10% income earners are still willing to spend, but overall consumer sentiment is cautious, as indicated by a significant drop in the consumer confidence index [2][4]. - Low-income consumers are reducing their spending, reflecting a broader trend of economic anxiety among shoppers [4]. Group 2: Retailer Strategies - Retailers are competing for price-sensitive consumers, with many offering significant discounts on essential items, such as Walmart's 50% off Vizio TVs and Target's various low-priced items [3]. - Some retailers, like Kohl's, are planning unprecedented promotional activities to attract stressed consumers, while Best Buy anticipates better performance this Black Friday compared to previous years [3]. - Retailers are also leveraging new technologies, such as AI-driven shopping tools, to enhance customer experience and facilitate purchases [3]. Group 3: Economic Context - The overall consumer spending remains relatively stable despite macroeconomic turbulence, with early purchases made to avoid impending tariffs contributing to sales growth [4]. - However, there are emerging pessimistic signals, including a slowdown in retail sales growth and a significant drop in consumer confidence [4][7]. - Concerns over tariffs are influencing consumer purchasing behavior, with some opting to buy items that may be affected in the future [7].