WTI原油现货

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宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告:经济周周看:本周经济景气度总体平稳-20250713
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-13 10:56
Economic Indicators - The GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index as of July 12 is 5.8%, remaining stable compared to the previous week's revised value of 5.8%[1] - The industrial weekly prosperity index slightly decreased to 8.3% from 8.4%[10] - The service industry weekly prosperity index also slightly decreased to 4.0% from 4.1%[10] Production and Demand - Production indicators show mixed results, with service and industrial sectors experiencing fluctuations compared to last week[13] - Consumer demand is declining, with the consumption high-frequency index dropping to 4.6% from 5.0%[10] - Infrastructure investment shows a slight decline, with rebar apparent demand at 221.5 million tons, down from 224.9 million tons[10] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with 30 major cities' property sales dropping to 125.9 million square meters, a 44% decrease week-on-week and a 26% decrease year-on-year[52] - The cumulative transaction area for real estate in 2025 is 49.57 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.37%[52] Export Performance - Container throughput remains high, with 653,000 TEUs reported, slightly down from 667,000 TEUs last week, but showing a year-to-date increase of 3.6%[61] - U.S. imports from China are improving, with 21.8 million TEUs arriving, reflecting a 21.7% increase week-on-week[61] Price Trends - Marginal recovery in prices is noted, with the agricultural wholesale price index rising by 0.45% week-on-week[63] - The average price of pork increased by 1.12% week-on-week, indicating a stabilization after previous declines[66]
WTI原油期货向下触及67美元/桶
news flash· 2025-07-10 13:21
WTI原油期货向下触及67美元/桶,日内跌2.03%。WTI原油现货跌破66美元/桶,日内跌1.78%。 ...
宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告:经济周周看:本周经济景总体平稳-20250615
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-15 14:31
经济周周看:本周经济景总体平稳 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看:整体向上,生产偏强,需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架,我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数,更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看,GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度,例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合,在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善,有望更好地拟合周度 GDP,使其在弹性强度上更为准确。 证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周(截至 6 月 14 日)为 5.6%,与上周修订值 5.6%基本持 平,或表征经济增长景气相对平稳。 从生产端来看,服务业、工业高频指标较上周总体平稳。 从需求端来看,消费回暖,固投偏弱,出口高频高位震荡。 从价格端来看,本周物价边际承压,系统性回升有待需求侧反弹。 ❑ 风险提示 经济结构转型,传统指标对经济的拟合度下降; 地缘政治博弈强度超预期 ...