Economic Indicators - The GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index as of July 12 is 5.8%, remaining stable compared to the previous week's revised value of 5.8%[1] - The industrial weekly prosperity index slightly decreased to 8.3% from 8.4%[10] - The service industry weekly prosperity index also slightly decreased to 4.0% from 4.1%[10] Production and Demand - Production indicators show mixed results, with service and industrial sectors experiencing fluctuations compared to last week[13] - Consumer demand is declining, with the consumption high-frequency index dropping to 4.6% from 5.0%[10] - Infrastructure investment shows a slight decline, with rebar apparent demand at 221.5 million tons, down from 224.9 million tons[10] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with 30 major cities' property sales dropping to 125.9 million square meters, a 44% decrease week-on-week and a 26% decrease year-on-year[52] - The cumulative transaction area for real estate in 2025 is 49.57 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.37%[52] Export Performance - Container throughput remains high, with 653,000 TEUs reported, slightly down from 667,000 TEUs last week, but showing a year-to-date increase of 3.6%[61] - U.S. imports from China are improving, with 21.8 million TEUs arriving, reflecting a 21.7% increase week-on-week[61] Price Trends - Marginal recovery in prices is noted, with the agricultural wholesale price index rising by 0.45% week-on-week[63] - The average price of pork increased by 1.12% week-on-week, indicating a stabilization after previous declines[66]

Group 1 - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, indicating the effectiveness of consumption-boosting policies [1][2] - Energy prices were the main factor dragging down both the CPI and PPI, with energy prices decreasing by 6.1% year-on-year and 1.7% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall decline in CPI [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with hotel accommodation and tourism prices rising by 4.6% and 0.8% respectively, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [1][2] Group 2 - The PPI data showed signs of marginal improvement in terminal consumer demand, with life goods prices stabilizing and certain manufacturing sectors experiencing reduced year-on-year price declines [2] - High-tech product demand is expanding, with prices in sectors such as integrated circuit packaging and testing, aircraft manufacturing, and wearable smart devices increasing by 3.6%, 3.0%, and 2.1% respectively [2] - Analysts predict a likely upward trend in the price level, with CPI expected to gradually recover and PPI showing signs of marginal improvement due to the impact of previous consumption-boosting policies [2]

经济周周看：本周经济景总体平稳 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看：整体向上，生产偏强，需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架，我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数，更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看，GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度，例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合，在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善，有望更好地拟合周度 GDP，使其在弹性强度上更为准确。 证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周（截至 6 月 14 日）为 5.6%，与上周修订值 5.6%基本持 平，或表征经济增长景气相对平稳。 从生产端来看，服务业、工业高频指标较上周总体平稳。 从需求端来看，消费回暖，固投偏弱，出口高频高位震荡。 从价格端来看，本周物价边际承压，系统性回升有待需求侧反弹。 ❑ 风险提示 经济结构转型，传统指标对经济的拟合度下降； 地缘政治博弈强度超预期 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The manufacturing PMI in May showed a seasonal rebound but remains in the contraction zone, while the non-manufacturing PMI slightly decreased [4] - Key signals include a rebound in supply and demand, an increase in import and export orders, and a slight decline in price indices, indicating ongoing pressure on prices [4] - The overall economic outlook suggests that internal demand issues remain prominent, with a need for policy intervention to support growth [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - The market is currently experiencing limited downside potential, with the probability of returning to previous lows being negligible [5] - A mid-term bullish trend is confirmed across multiple indices, indicating the beginning of a new bull market phase [6] - Investors are encouraged to position themselves strategically during this market adjustment phase, as opportunities are expected to arise [6] Group 3: Fixed Income Insights - In the first quarter of 2025, Jiangsu showed strong economic growth with a focus on debt reduction, while Guangdong faced economic adjustments due to global trade uncertainties [9][10] - The overall market environment is expected to improve post mid-June, with potential for interest rates to decline further, creating more opportunities in the bond market [11] - The central bank's actions are aimed at maintaining liquidity, with a stable performance in certificates of deposit [12] Group 4: Industry-Specific Developments - The automotive sector is witnessing significant advancements, with the launch of the Huawei and JAC Motors' ZunJie S800, which has already seen strong pre-orders [19][20] - The smart driving industry is expected to enter a golden growth period, with increasing penetration of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) in new vehicles [21] - The stablecoin regulatory framework in Hong Kong marks a significant step in financial innovation, benefiting various segments of the digital asset ecosystem [24] Group 5: Company Performance - Ideal Auto's Q1 2025 gross margin exceeded expectations, with projected sales and revenue growth for the next three years [31] - Xiaomi Group is expected to maintain strong revenue growth driven by core technology advancements, with significant contributions from its automotive segment [32] - Honglu Steel Structure is positioned for recovery with a notable increase in orders and production, benefiting from demand restoration and operational efficiencies [34]

Core Insights - The news highlights the collaboration between banks and enterprises in Dongguan to address financing challenges for export-oriented companies, thereby supporting local economic development and enhancing production capacity [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financing Solutions for Export-Oriented Companies - Dongguan FR Computer Co., Ltd., a national high-tech enterprise, faced cash flow challenges due to increased sales and production demands, prompting the need for financing solutions [2]. - The Construction Bank's Dongguan branch provided a tailored loan product based on the company's specific needs, resulting in a successful loan approval process that took 35 days [2]. - The loan product offered low financing costs, convenient disbursement, and autonomous payment capabilities, which were crucial for the company's operations [2]. Group 2: Support for Domestic and International Market Expansion - BJ Precision Die Casting Mold Co., Ltd., another national high-tech enterprise, secured a credit cooperation of 30 million yuan with the Construction Bank, facilitating its expansion in both domestic and international markets [3][4]. - The company experienced a 50% increase in order volume compared to the previous year, necessitating additional financing to support its production scale and overseas investments [3][4]. - The bank's specialized service team developed a customized credit plan after understanding the company's operational needs and existing banking relationships, leading to a successful loan disbursement [4][5]. Group 3: Commitment to Long-Term Partnerships - The timely funding allowed BJ Company to streamline domestic production and alleviate financial pressure on its overseas operations in Vietnam [5]. - The company expressed intentions to deepen its banking relationship by transferring employee salaries to the Construction Bank, thereby increasing its deposits and transaction volumes with the bank [5]. - The Construction Bank emphasized its commitment to supporting quality enterprises and enhancing its role in the local manufacturing ecosystem [5].

Core Insights - The National Taxation Administration of China is monitoring national enterprise sales revenue using value-added tax invoice data, reflecting the macroeconomic situation [1] Group 1: Sales Revenue Growth - In April, the sales revenue growth rate of national enterprises accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, continuing the steady growth trend since the fourth quarter of last year [2] - Domestic sales revenue of enterprises engaged in exports to the U.S. increased by 4.7% year-on-year, with the proportion of domestic sales in total sales rising by 2 percentage points compared to the first quarter [4] Group 2: Sector Performance - Among 31 manufacturing categories, 21 industries saw an increase in the proportion of domestic sales for enterprises exporting to the U.S. compared to the same period last year, with notable increases in the leather and footwear industry (10 percentage points) and in computer communication equipment, black metals, furniture, and food industries (over 5 percentage points) [4] - The sales revenue of industrial enterprises showed significant growth in April, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.7%, and manufacturing sales revenue increased by 4.4%, driven by policies such as "two new" [4] Group 3: Regional Performance - Economic provinces like Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Beijing experienced strong growth in sales revenue in April, with year-on-year increases of 7.3%, 6.6%, and 5.4% respectively, significantly outpacing the national average [4] - The growth in these regions is particularly driven by innovative industries such as artificial intelligence, leading to accelerated development in equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries [4]

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 从需求端来看，消费假期效应消退走弱，固投整体下行，出口仍有韧性。 从价格端来看，本周物价边际承压，系统性回升有待需求侧反弹。 ❑ 风险提示 经济结构转型，传统指标对经济的拟合度下降； 地缘政治博弈强度超预期。 经济周周看：本周经济景气度略有回落 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看：整体向上，生产偏强，需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架，我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数，更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看，GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度，例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合，在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善，有望更好地拟合周度 GDP，使其在弹性强度上更为准确。 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周（截至 5 月 10 日）为 5.4%，与上周修订值 5.7%略有回 落，或表征经济增长景气有所放缓。我们认为，随着关税冲击，GDP 周 ...