Group 1 - Visa is expanding its operations in mainland China through a partnership with UnionPay International to facilitate cross-border remittances and real-time payments for UPI debit cardholders [3][7] - The Visa Direct-UPI connection is set to be available in the first half of 2026, targeting over 95% of UnionPay International debit cardholders [3][7] - The collaboration aims to support various cross-border payment use cases, including payments for creators, freelancers, contractors, and family remittances [4][7] Group 2 - The speed and availability of funds through this new connection will depend on the receiving institution and region, and may be subject to compliance reviews [3] - UnionPay's MoneyExpress remittance platform operates in 57 countries, including Canada, Japan, Singapore, and the United States [5]

Summary of the Conference Call on China Internet Sector Industry Overview - **Sector**: China Internet Sector - **Growth Forecast**: Overall ad growth in China is expected to remain stable at **9.5%** in 2026, slightly down from **9.6%** in 2025, outperforming underlying consumption growth projected at **4.8%** and **4.4%** for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2][3] Key Drivers of Growth - **Demand from Non-Cyclical Verticals**: Significant growth is anticipated in sectors such as gaming (both app-based and mini-games), internet services (driven by short dramas and AI tools), and education (primarily hardware) [2] - **Supply-Side Upgrades**: Improvements in ad technology, particularly through AI, are expected to enhance ad efficiency and unlock new budgets, partially offsetting macroeconomic headwinds [2][3] Impact of New Ad Tax Policy - **Policy Details**: Effective from October 1, 2025, marketing expenses exceeding **15%** of revenue (or **30%** for cosmetics, healthcare, and non-alcoholic beverages) will no longer be tax-deductible, increasing the cost of sales and marketing (S&M) for advertisers [3] - **Limited Negative Impact**: The overall impact of the new tax policy is less severe than anticipated, with factors such as variations in enforcement and reclassification of costs helping to mitigate the effects [3] AI's Role in Advertising - **Increased Ad Budgets**: Post-2025, ad agencies reported a **high single-digit to 10%** increase in ad budgets on platforms with advanced AI capabilities [4] - **Key Use Cases**: AI is improving ROI by up to **10%** through better targeting, ad material generation, and bidding strategies. Adoption of AI-powered platforms is also increasing, lowering entry barriers for SMEs [4] Company-Specific Insights - **Tencent**: Expected to maintain ad revenue growth of **+18% YoY** in Q4, supported by ad tech upgrades and improved connectivity within its ecosystem [8] - **Bilibili**: Advertiser perceptions are improving due to better collaboration with major platforms, leading to enhanced ad ROI [8] - **Kuaishou**: Noted for significant ad tech improvements, positioning it as a leader in ad efficiency [8] - **Baidu**: Continues to face revenue decline but is seeing increased contributions from AI-native products [8] Stock Recommendations - **Preferred Stocks**: The report favors Tencent, Bilibili, and Kuaishou due to their strong growth drivers and positions in the ad tech landscape [9] Risks and Challenges - **Competitive Landscape**: The sector faces risks from evolving competition, fast-moving technology trends, and regulatory changes [13] - **Profitability Concerns**: Companies like JD.com are under scrutiny for low visibility on profitability and the impact of restructuring efforts [14] Conclusion - The China Internet sector is poised for stable growth driven by advancements in ad technology and demand from non-cyclical sectors, despite challenges posed by new tax policies and competitive pressures. Key players like Tencent, Bilibili, and Kuaishou are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, while risks remain in the form of regulatory changes and market competition [2][3][9]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve a 13% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 2025, driven by strong performance in online gaming and online advertising, despite slightly lower operating profit forecasts due to increased AI-related operating expenses [1][2]. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to grow 13% year-over-year to RMB194.8 billion, aligning with consensus expectations [2]. - Value-added services (VAS) revenue is estimated to increase by 14% year-over-year, supported by a 7% growth in social networks and an 18% growth in online gaming [2]. - Online gaming is expected to see a solid 15% year-over-year growth in domestic games, aided by popular franchises and the launch of Valorant Mobile [2]. - Online advertising revenue is anticipated to remain resilient with a 17% year-over-year increase, driven by video accounts, Weixin search, and Moments, benefiting from AI enhancements [2]. - Adjusted operating profit is forecasted to grow 15% year-over-year to RMB68.4 billion, factoring in AI-related operating expenses [2]. Group 2: AI Strategies and Growth Engines - The company is committed to executing consistent AI strategies to foster high-quality growth engines, leveraging its user base, communities, content, infrastructure, and monetization ecosystems [1]. - Key AI strategies include upgrading foundational large language models (LLM), integrating more in-house functionalities, developing diverse AI products, and prioritizing internal capabilities over external monetization [1]. - The company anticipates sustainable growth momentum in gaming and online advertising, supported by ongoing AI investments [1]. Group 3: Valuation and Target Price - The company maintains a "BUY" rating and has slightly raised the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) target price to HK$742.0 based on updated estimates [4]. - The valuation multiples assigned for 2026E include 18.0x price-to-earnings ratio (PER) for online gaming, 20.0x PER for online advertising, 13.0x PER for fintech and business services, and 3x price-to-sales ratio (PSR) for cloud services [4].

Summary of Pan-Asia Internet Research Conference Call Industry Overview - **Pan-Asia Internet Sector**: The conference call focused on the outlook for the Pan-Asia internet sector, highlighting the impact of AI adoption on monetization and margins for 2026 [1][4]. Key Insights by Region China Internet - **Performance**: China's internet sector led in 2025 with a +31% return, outperforming the US (+20%), Korea (+14%), SEA (+11%), Japan (+10%), and India (+9%) [5]. - **AI Focus**: Key themes for 2026 include: - Growth in recurring revenues from cloud infrastructure and AI model usage. - Competition among AI chatbots for user traffic. - Companies deploying proprietary AI agents for user engagement and monetization [8]. - **Top Picks**: Tencent and Alibaba as core AI plays, along with Trip.com and NetEase for stable earnings growth [8]. India Internet - **Operating Margins**: Expected improvement in operating margins driven by operating leverage and better unit economics, particularly for companies like Swiggy and Paytm [7]. - **Key Themes**: - Intense competition in quick commerce. - Regulatory easing for fintech, particularly for Paytm. - Rebound in online travel agencies (OTAs) due to sustained demand [7]. - **Top Picks**: Eternal and MakeMyTrip [7]. Korea Internet - **Market Dynamics**: - Coupang expected to gain market share in e-commerce and food delivery. - Integration of AI in KakaoTalk to enhance search capabilities [9]. - Selective approach to gaming due to competition and delays in major game releases [9]. - **Top Picks**: Coupang for e-commerce, Krafton for gaming, and HYBE for K-pop entertainment [9]. Japan Internet - **Growth Drivers**: - Solid online ads market driven by video and staffing ads, while search ads stagnate. - Mid-single-digit growth expected in e-commerce, supported by AI recommendations [10]. - **Top Picks**: Recruit and Nintendo [10]. ASEAN Internet - **Growth Potential**: - SEA positioned as an AI data center hub, supporting digital economy growth. - Intensifying competition between Shopee and TikTok in e-commerce [11]. - **Top Picks**: Grab and GoTo for operational efficiencies and potential synergies from consolidation [11]. Financial Metrics and Valuations - **China Internet Valuations**: - Alibaba Group: Target price of $225, representing a 54.9% upside [13]. - JD.com: Target price of $44, with a 57.8% upside [13]. - **Korea Internet Valuations**: - Coupang: Target price of $28, with an 18.7% upside [12]. - Krafton: Target price of $440, with a 78.9% upside [12]. - **India Internet Valuations**: - Eternal: Target price of $440, with a 58.3% upside [12]. Additional Insights - **Regulatory Developments**: Anticipated changes in India's laws regarding multi-brand retail FDI and fintech regulations [7]. - **Consumer Behavior**: Increased productivity from AI tools may lead to more leisure time, benefiting sectors like travel and online gaming [8]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing insights into the performance and outlook of the Pan-Asia internet sector across various regions.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The China internet sector has shown strong performance in 2025, with a year-to-date return of +36.5%, outperforming Southeast Asia (+18.3%), India (+17.6%), Japan (+16.8%), the US (+16.2%), and Korea (+12.8%) [1][16] - Geopolitical tensions and AI supply-chain issues are expected to keep China's internet companies trading at discounts compared to global peers [1][2] Core Themes and Insights - **AI Competition and Productivity Gains**: The competition among AI players in China is anticipated to intensify in 2026, focusing on AI cloud infrastructure, chatbots, and applications [1][2] - **Monetization Lag**: Monetization of AI technologies is expected to lag behind user traffic growth, particularly when compared to global peers [1][2] - **Top Picks for 1H26**: Recommended stocks include Tencent and Alibaba as core AI plays, Trip.com and NetEase for stable earnings growth, and Century Huatong among A shares [1][2] AI Market Dynamics - **AI Chatbot Penetration**: ChatGPT leads globally with 800 million monthly active users (MAUs), while Bytedance's Dola and Doubao combined rank third with approximately 250 million MAUs [3] - **User Traffic Competition**: Major internet players are competing for user traffic through AI chatbots, which is crucial for future ecosystem monetization [2] Consumer Behavior and Spending - **Leisure and Entertainment Spending**: The adoption of AI tools is expected to enhance consumer productivity, leading to increased spending on leisure and entertainment, particularly in travel and online gaming [4] - **Stable Earnings Growth**: Online travel agencies (OTAs) and gaming companies are projected to benefit from resilient consumer spending [4] Investment Risks - **Geopolitical and Economic Risks**: Risks include geopolitical tensions, AI supply-chain constraints, muted consumer sentiment without stimulus policies, and intensified competition in AI applications [5] - **Profitability Concerns**: The potential for profit lock-in through membership investments and a slowdown in capital returns are highlighted as significant risks [5] Financial Performance Insights - **3Q25 Results**: Among 44 internet companies, 18 reported revenue beats, and 27 reported earnings beats. The guidance for 4Q25 showed mixed results, with some companies exceeding expectations while others fell short [6][10] - **Year-to-Date Share Price Performance**: Alibaba leads with an 86% return, followed by Tencent at 47%. Meituan has underperformed with a -32% return [16][28] Conclusion - The China internet sector is poised for growth driven by AI advancements, but faces challenges from geopolitical risks and competitive pressures. Companies like Tencent and Alibaba are positioned as key players in this evolving landscape, while consumer spending trends indicate resilience in leisure and entertainment sectors.

Tencent Holdings Research Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings - **Sector**: Internet/e-Commerce - **Description**: Tencent is a leading provider of messaging services, value-added services, online games, advertising, and e-commerce in China. The social app Weixin has over 1 billion domestic accounts, and Tencent also offers enterprise services like Cloud and IT solutions [11][12]. Key Financial Metrics - **3Q25 Net Income**: Adjusted net income was RMB 70.6 billion, up 18% YoY, exceeding consensus by 7% [16]. - **Revenue**: 3Q25 revenue reached RMB 192.9 billion, a 15% YoY increase [16]. - **Capex**: 3Q25 capital expenditure was RMB 13 billion, below consensus due to chip availability issues [1]. - **2025E Revenue**: Expected to be RMB 750 billion, with a gross profit of RMB 423 billion [15]. Investment Rating and Price Objective - **Rating**: BUY - **Price Objective**: HKD 780, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation [3][17]. Growth Drivers - **AI Strategy**: Tencent is focusing on AI applications, integrating AI-supported use cases into Weixin. The company is expected to prioritize internal chip use over external sales due to supply constraints [1]. - **Gaming Segment**: Anticipated growth from titles like Delta Force, Valorant Mobile, and Honor of Kings (HoK) [2]. - **Advertising Revenue**: Growth expected from Video Account and Weixin search ads, which have higher gross margins [2]. Financial Projections - **2025E Non-IFRS Diluted EPS**: Expected to be RMB 28.13, reflecting a 18.8% YoY increase [4][15]. - **2026E Revenue**: Projected to reach RMB 821 billion, with a gross profit margin of 57% [15]. - **Free Cash Flow**: Expected to be RMB 145.9 billion in 2025 [9]. Risks and Challenges - **Competition**: Intensifying competition in the gaming and advertising sectors [3]. - **Regulatory Uncertainty**: Potential regulatory challenges in fintech and gaming [18]. - **Macroeconomic Factors**: A weaker macro environment could impact advertising and fintech revenues [18]. Additional Insights - **Market Position**: Tencent maintains a strong market leadership position across various segments, with significant growth potential in monetization through Weixin [12]. - **AI and E-commerce Potential**: The company has substantial upside potential from AI applications and e-commerce growth [12]. - **Debt Management**: Net debt is projected to decrease significantly by 2027, indicating improved financial health [9]. Conclusion Tencent Holdings is positioned for continued growth driven by its strong market presence, innovative AI strategies, and robust gaming and advertising segments. However, investors should remain cautious of competitive pressures and regulatory risks that could impact future performance.

Summary of Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) - **Event**: Asia Leaders Conference 2025 - **Date**: September 4, 2025 - **Presenter**: Mr. James Mitchell, Chief Strategy Officer Key Industry Insights 1. **AI Model Development**: Tencent has re-architected its AI model strategy, with Hunyuan models achieving state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in China, closing the gap with global models. The launch of HunyuanWorld-Voyager 3D model and its leading rankings on Hugging Face were highlighted [1][2][3] 2. **Revenue Streams from AI**: The company is leveraging AI to enhance revenue across gaming and marketing services, with high margins expected to offset GPU depreciation expenses. Tencent's non-GPU capital expenditure is lower compared to global peers due to cost efficiencies [2][3] 3. **Gaming Industry Growth**: Tencent is well-positioned in the gaming sector, which continues to grow, particularly in China and emerging markets. AI is expected to improve user experience and R&D efficiency, with significant content production efficiency gains anticipated [3][4] 4. **Advertising Services**: Tencent is aggressively deploying AI in its advertising business, which currently captures one-third of China's internet time but is under-monetized. AI-driven ad technology is expected to enhance click-through rates and conversion [8][9] Financial Performance and Projections 1. **Revenue Growth**: Tencent forecasts a revenue growth of 13% year-over-year for 3Q25E and 2025E, with an 18% and 17% growth in EPS respectively [11][12] 2. **Financial Summary**: - Total revenues projected to reach RMB 660.26 billion in 2024 and RMB 746.72 billion in 2025E - Net profit (Non-GAAP) expected to be RMB 222.70 billion in 2024 and RMB 256.39 billion in 2025E - Diluted EPS (Non-GAAP) projected at RMB 23.67 for 2024 and RMB 27.69 for 2025E [13][16] Strategic Initiatives 1. **Capital Allocation**: Tencent is committed to disciplined capital allocation, with plans for share buybacks and dividends supported by improved liquidity in China [10][11] 2. **E-commerce and Cloud Growth**: The company is enhancing its Weixin super-app and expanding its closed-loop e-commerce capabilities, positioning Tencent Cloud as a top player in China's public cloud market [11][12] Risks and Challenges 1. **Industry Competition**: Increased competition in performance-based advertising and potential delays in game launches could impact growth [14] 2. **FinTech and Cloud Growth**: Slower-than-expected growth in these sectors poses a risk to overall performance [14] Conclusion - Tencent is positioned as a key beneficiary of AI advancements in the Chinese internet landscape, with a robust growth outlook across its major business lines. The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HK$701, reflecting a 17.1% upside potential from the current price of HK$598.50 [11][16]

Summary of Tencent Holdings (700 HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings - **Industry**: Internet Software & Services - **Market Cap**: Approximately USD 683.3 billion Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **2Q25 Revenue**: Reported at RMB 184.5 billion, beating consensus expectations by 3% [16] - **Growth Rate**: Year-over-year revenue growth of 15% [16] - **Operating Profit**: Non-IFRS operating profit of RMB 69.2 billion, also beating expectations by 4% [16] - **Net Profit**: Non-IFRS net income of RMB 63.1 billion, exceeding consensus by 3% [16] Segment Performance 1. **Domestic Games (DG)**: - Revenue grew by 17% year-over-year, driven by titles like Delta Force and Honor of Kings [17] - Delta Force's daily active users (DAU) exceeded 20 million in July 2025 [17] 2. **International Games (IG)**: - Revenue surged by 35% year-over-year, driven by Supercell's titles and PUBG Mobile [18] - Clash Royale's gross billings reached a seven-year high in June 2025 [18] 3. **Marketing Services**: - Revenue increased by 20% year-over-year, supported by AI-driven improvements [21] - Video Account, Mini Programs, and Weixin Search ads grew by 50%, 50%, and 60% year-over-year, respectively [21] 4. **Fintech and Business Services (FBS)**: - Revenue grew by 10% year-over-year, driven by consumer loans and commercial payments [22] - Total commercial payment volume resumed year-over-year growth in 2Q25 [22] Growth Projections - **Revenue Estimates**: Increased for 2025-2027, with domestic games up by 2-7%, international games by 3-5%, and ad revenue by 2-6% [1] - **Target Price**: Raised to HKD 690 from HKD 650, implying an upside of approximately 18% [1][4] Operational Efficiency - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Total GPM improved to 57%, beating expectations by 2 percentage points [16] - **Cost Management**: General and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue remained flat at 6.3% [25] Shareholder Returns - **Share Buybacks**: Tencent has repurchased HKD 40 billion worth of shares year-to-date, with a commitment of at least HKD 80 billion for 2025 [49][47] - **Dividends**: Planned dividend payments of HKD 41 billion in 2025 [52] Risks and Challenges - **Regulatory Risks**: Potential challenges in obtaining monetization approvals for games and regulatory headwinds in the internet sector [52] - **Market Conditions**: A deeper macroeconomic slowdown could impact advertising budgets [52] Additional Insights - **AI Investments**: Continued benefits from AI investments are expected to drive sustainable growth in advertising and operational efficiency [8] - **Emerging Titles**: Delta Force is on track to become an evergreen title, with the upcoming launch of Valorant Mobile in China being closely watched [8] Conclusion Tencent Holdings demonstrated strong financial performance in 2Q25, with significant growth across its core segments. The company is well-positioned for future growth, supported by strategic investments in AI and a robust pipeline of game titles. However, it faces potential regulatory challenges and macroeconomic risks that could impact its performance. The raised target price reflects confidence in the company's growth trajectory and operational efficiency.

Summary of Tencent Holdings Investor Meeting Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings - **Sector**: Internet/e-Commerce - **Description**: Tencent is a leading provider of messaging services, value-added services, online games, and advertising in China, with Weixin having over 1 billion domestic accounts [10][11]. Key Takeaways from the Investor Meeting AI Product Development - Tencent is investing in AI products that are in the post-launch but pre-monetization phase, including: - **Yuanbao app**: Achieved product-market fit and moved to launch phase [1] - **QQ Browser**: Recently upgraded to AI Browser [1] - **Weixin AI**: Early in the product-market fit journey [1] - Monetization is expected to begin product by product after several quarters, funded through operating leverage from existing businesses [1]. - The near-term cost impact will primarily come from depreciation, with profit being back-end loaded in the GPU lifecycle [1]. Financial Projections - **Net Income (Adjusted)**: - 2023A: CNY 157,688 million - 2024A: CNY 222,703 million - 2025E: CNY 251,880 million [3] - **EPS**: - 2023A: CNY 11.99 - 2024A: CNY 20.63 - 2025E: CNY 22.65 [3] - **P/E Ratio**: - 2025E: 20.75x [3] Game Experience and User Retention - AI enhances game experience through improved player onboarding, coaching, interaction, and cheating prevention, leading to better user retention [2]. - Tencent's key mobile games have shown an upward trend in 30-day user retention [2][19]. Business Services Growth Drivers - The Business Services segment has four structural drivers: 1. Mini Shops commission 2. CRM service and WeCom enterprise software 3. Security and real-time communications solutions 4. GPU rental [3] - Tencent believes in the long-term potential of enterprise services in China, focusing on software services for better margins and competitive products [3]. Fintech Services Growth - The Fintech segment has three structural drivers: 1. Consistent growth in wealth management 2. Resumed growth in credit business 3. Improvement in payment business after a decline [15]. Mini Shops in Weixin Ecosystem - Mini Shops are rapidly growing GMV and enhancing linkages with other Weixin activities, with multiple successful eCommerce templates to learn from [14]. - Monetization potential includes higher take rates and improved ad targeting due to SKU-level granularity [14]. Investment Rationale - The company maintains a **Buy** rating due to: - Strong market leadership - Growth potential from Weixin monetization - Resilient game business growth - AI and eCommerce opportunities [11]. Risks and Opportunities - **Downside Risks**: 1. Competition from new platforms 2. Regulatory challenges in fintech and gaming 3. Weak macroeconomic conditions [23]. - **Upside Risks**: 1. Faster-than-expected macro recovery 2. Successful new game launches 3. Synergies from ecosystem collaborations [23]. Conclusion - Tencent Holdings is positioned for growth through its AI investments, strong game retention, and expanding business services. The company faces risks from competition and regulation but has significant upside potential from its diverse business segments and market leadership.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of HK$695, implying an expected share price return of 33.5% and a total return of 34.4% [4][8]. Core Insights - Tencent is positioned as a strong player in AI applications, leveraging its comprehensive Weixin ecosystem to enhance user targeting, content generation, and game stickiness through AI optimization [1][2]. - The company has made significant advancements in its Hunyuan large model, achieving top rankings in various benchmarks and expanding its multi-modal capabilities [3][6]. - Tencent Cloud is experiencing a notable increase in API calls, particularly in automatic speech recognition and text-to-speech, indicating a rapid adoption of AI technologies [1][3]. Summary by Sections AI Development and Infrastructure - Tencent aims to build an AI-native ecosystem to enhance its service capabilities for enterprise customers, focusing on large model innovation and infrastructure upgrades [2][3]. - The Hunyuan Turbo-S model ranks 8 in the Chatbot Arena benchmark and is among the top 10 for coding and math capabilities, showcasing Tencent's competitive edge in AI [3]. Agent Development - The Smart Agent Development Platform has been upgraded to enhance multi-agent collaboration and improve efficiency in corporate use cases [4][6]. - This platform is designed to support external customers in setting up their own AI agents, reflecting Tencent's commitment to expanding its AI offerings [6]. Knowledge Base and Product Matrix - Tencent has introduced several products to meet enterprise demands, including the Lexiang knowledge base for knowledge coordination and the marketing cloud agent for automated customer targeting [7]. - The integration of Tencent Hunyuan and DeepSeek large models aims to enhance individual employee productivity through AI Q&A and content generation [7]. Valuation - The target price of HK$695 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach, applying various price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples across different business segments [8]. - The valuation breakdown includes online games, online advertising, social networks, fintech, and cloud/business services, indicating a diversified revenue stream [8].