Group 1: Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures sector is in a "curve long" state, with IC and IM being "good curves" [1] - Key products include the Shanghai 50 (IH), CSI 300 (IF), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM), all in a bullish state [1] - The market status shows a "consolidation" phase, with technical indicators indicating prices at a high level (750D Px_M Percentile > 0.95) [1] - IC and IM have the strongest curve strength, suitable for long positions, while IH and IF are slightly weaker and can serve as auxiliary positions [1] - The core logic indicates that the curve structure of small-cap indices is more favorable, reflecting optimistic expectations for their forward contracts [1] Group 2: Government Bond Futures - The government bond futures sector is in a "curve short" state, with TL showing the strongest short signal [1] - Key products include 2-year (TS), 5-year (TF), 10-year (T), and 30-year (TL) bonds, with TS in "consolidation" and TF, T, TL in "short" [1] - The 30-year bond's 750D Ctgo Percentile is at 0.965, indicating it is at a historically high position, facing adjustment pressure [1] - Opportunities exist to focus on short positions in TL and T, particularly as TL's curve structure is bearish [1] - The core logic suggests that long-term interest rate bonds face supply pressure and rising inflation expectations, suppressing bond prices [1] Group 3: Precious Metals - The precious metals sector is in a "possible curve short" state, but the market status is "bullish" [1] - Key products include gold (AU) and silver (AG), both showing high price levels (Px_M Percentile close to 1), indicating overheated market sentiment [1] - Caution is advised for pursuing long positions, with attention to potential opportunities after price corrections [1] - The core logic indicates that safe-haven sentiment and inflation expectations support prices, but the curve structure suggests insufficient premiums for forward contracts, warning of high-level adjustments [1] Group 4: Base Metals - The base metals sector shows copper (CU) and aluminum (AL) as "bullish," while zinc (ZN) is a "possible curve long," and nickel (NI) and tin (SN) are "possible curve shorts" [3] - Copper and aluminum prices are very strong, while zinc, nickel, and tin are in a "consolidation" state [3] - Opportunities for long positions exist in copper and aluminum, while zinc may present curve strengthening opportunities [3] - The core logic indicates that copper and aluminum benefit from investments in new energy and power grids, while zinc is supported by supply-side disruptions [3] Group 5: Black Metals - The black metals sector has iron ore (I) as a "good curve long," while rebar (RB) is a "possible curve short," and hot-rolled coil (HC) is in "consolidation" [3] - The market status for iron ore, rebar, and hot-rolled coil is "consolidation" [3] - Opportunities for long positions in iron ore are noted, while caution is advised for rebar [3] - The core logic suggests that iron ore is supported by supply-side factors and steel mill restocking, while rebar is constrained by weak demand [3] Group 6: Chemical Products - The chemical products sector includes crude oil (SC), low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), and asphalt (BU) as "curve long," while rubber (RU) is a "good curve short" [3] - SC, LU, and BU are in "consolidation," while RU is in a "short" state [3] - Opportunities for long positions are available in SC, LU, and BU, while RU shows a clear bearish trend [3] - The core logic indicates that energy and chemical products are supported by crude oil costs, while rubber is pressured by supply-demand imbalances [3] Group 7: Agricultural Products - The agricultural products sector includes soybean oil (Y) and palm oil (P) as "possible curve long," while soybean meal (M) is "short," and sugar (SR) is "curve long" [3] - Soybean oil and palm oil are in "consolidation," while soybean meal is in a "short" state [3] - Opportunities for long positions are noted in Y, P, and SR, while M should be avoided [3] - The core logic indicates that oilseeds are supported by recovering consumption and biodiesel policies, while soybean meal is pressured by ample supply [3] Group 8: Summary and Recommendations - Long opportunities identified include CSI 500/1000 futures, iron ore, crude oil, palm oil, and sugar [3] - Short opportunities include 30-year government bonds, rubber, and soybean meal [3] - Concentrated risk areas include potential adjustments in precious metals at high levels, demand shortfalls in black metals, and weather fluctuations affecting agricultural products [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the diverse opportunities and risks in the futures market, emphasizing the differentiation between bullish and bearish trends across various sectors, particularly in stock indices and certain commodities like iron ore and sugar [43]. Group 1: Stock Index Futures - Key bullish varieties include the CSI 500 futures (IC) and CSI 1000 futures (IM), indicating a "Good Curve Long" signal, while the CSI 300 futures (IF) show a "Curve Long" signal and the SSE 50 futures (IH) are "Maybe Curve Long," suggesting an overall bullish sentiment [2]. - The market is currently in a "Consolidation" phase, indicating a period of adjustment [3]. - The volatility of stock index futures is relatively low, with a Vol/Roll ratio between 1.4 and 5.0, and a moderate rolling Sharpe ratio of approximately 0.2 to 0.7, indicating active trading with manageable volatility [4]. - High positive correlation exists among IH, IF, IC, and IM, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.68 to 0.94, reflecting strong interconnectivity within the sector [5]. - Investment opportunities lie in bullish positions for IC and IM due to strong curve structures and high annualized rolling returns (IC at 7.35%, IM at 10.69%), while IF and IH serve as auxiliary bullish positions suitable for low-cost accumulation during consolidation [6]. - The core logic suggests that small-cap stocks are relatively strong, benefiting from structural policy support and growth expectations, although the overall market lacks trend momentum and requires a breakout signal [8]. Group 2: Government Bond Futures - No clear curve signals are present for 2-year (TS), 5-year (TF), 10-year (T), and 30-year (TL) government bond futures, with all market states classified as "Consolidation" [9]. - Annualized rolling returns are negative (TS -0.26%, TF -0.26%, T -0.02%, TL 0.54%), indicating yield pressure [9]. - The volatility is low, with a Vol/Roll ratio between 0.0004 and 0.0027, and a varied rolling Sharpe ratio (TS at 0.43, T at 0.01), reflecting subdued trading activity and weak returns [10]. - Given the lack of clear direction, it is advised to remain observant or engage in light arbitrage, such as utilizing term spread changes [11]. - The core logic indicates that economic recovery and inflation expectations suppress the bond market, while safe-haven demand provides support, leading to a continued oscillating pattern [13]. Group 3: Precious Metals - Both gold (AU) and silver (AG) are classified as "Maybe Curve Short," but the market state is "Long," indicating a divergence between technical indicators and market conditions [14]. - Annualized rolling returns are negative (AU -2.24%, AG -2.11%), reflecting a bearish curve structure [14]. - The volatility is moderate, with a Vol/Roll ratio around 0.017 to 0.021, and low rolling Sharpe ratios (AU 0.08, AG 0.06), indicating active trading but poor returns [15]. - Cautious bearish positions are suggested, with attention to potential short-selling opportunities after rebounds or utilizing AU-AG price spread arbitrage [16]. - The core logic suggests that actual interest rates and dollar strength dominate prices, with a bearish technical outlook but support from safe-haven sentiment, leading to short-term weakness [18]. Group 4: Base Metals - Copper (CU) and international copper (BC) show no curve signals, with market states classified as "Long" or "Consolidation"; zinc (ZN) is "Maybe Curve Long," while nickel (NI) is "Short" [19]. - Annualized rolling returns vary (CU -0.28%, ZN 2.14%, NI -0.87%) [19]. - The volatility is moderate, with a Vol/Roll ratio between 0.005 and 0.011, and generally low rolling Sharpe ratios (CU 0.02, ZN 0.24), indicating stable trading [20]. - Zinc presents a clear long opportunity due to its bullish curve and positive returns, while nickel's clear bearish trend suggests short-selling at high points [21]. - The core logic indicates that supply-demand balance drives prices, with support from Chinese infrastructure and new energy demand for copper and zinc, but uncertainties arise from inventory levels and macro sentiment [23]. Group 5: Black Metals - Iron ore (I) is identified as "Good Curve Long," while coking coal (JM) is "Good Curve Short," and both coke (J) and rebar (RB) are "Maybe Curve Short" [24]. - Annualized rolling returns vary (I 6.49%, JM -5.35%) [25]. - The volatility is relatively high, with a Vol/Roll ratio around 0.010 to 0.024, and moderate rolling Sharpe ratios (I 0.39, JM 0.14), indicating active trading [26]. - Iron ore presents significant bullish opportunities, supported by positive returns and curve backing, while coking coal and coke show clear bearish trends suitable for short-selling [27]. - The core logic suggests that environmental policies and production cut expectations support iron ore, while weak terminal demand suppresses coking coal and coke, leading to notable sector differentiation [29]. Group 6: Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil (SC) and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) are "Curve Long," while fuel oil (FU) is "Good Curve Long" but in a "Short" market state, and asphalt (BU) is "Curve Long" but also "Short" [30]. - Annualized rolling returns vary (SC 3.31%, FU 6.76%, BU 3.09%) [31]. - The volatility is moderate, with a Vol/Roll ratio between 0.014 and 0.026, and varied rolling Sharpe ratios (SC 0.14, FU 0.29), indicating strong interconnectivity within the sector [32]. - High-value bullish positions are recommended for SC and LU, benefiting from curve support and positive returns, while FU and BU require cautious validation due to their bearish market states [33]. - The core logic indicates that global crude oil supply-demand tightness supports prices, but downstream demand differentiation and chemical products are influenced by both cost and demand factors [36]. Group 7: Agricultural Products - Sugar (SR) is "Curve Long," soybean (A) is "Maybe Curve Long," palm oil (P) is "Good Curve Long" but in a "Short" market state, while rapeseed oil (OI) and rapeseed meal (RM) are "Maybe Curve Short," and live hogs (LH) and eggs (JD) are "Curve Short" [37]. - Annualized rolling returns vary (SR 3.58%, P 7.81%, LH -3.64%) [37]. - The volatility ranges from low to moderate, with a Vol/Roll ratio between 0.004 and 0.015, and moderate rolling Sharpe ratios (SR 0.56, LH 0.16) [38]. - Clear bullish opportunities exist for sugar and soybean, benefiting from curve support and positive returns, while palm oil's bullish curve requires waiting for stronger signals, and live hogs and eggs show clear bearish trends suitable for short-selling [40]. - The core logic indicates that supply-side factors (planting area, yield) and demand-side factors (feed, consumption) dominate, with significant differentiation among varieties and a need to monitor seasonal factors and global trade flows [42].