Core Insights - The bear market trend for Bitcoin is intensifying, which is negative news for long-term bulls [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Volatility is a key indicator for quantitative analysts to detect trends [1] - A rapid increase in volatility indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a bear market [1] - Sustained increases in volatility suggest that the bear market trend is strengthening [1] Group 2: Market Behavior - The peak of volatility typically occurs in the later stages of a bear market, signaling a potential weakening of the trend [1] - Smaller peaks in volatility may appear during the macro bottom, reflecting market capitulation [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - FINQ issued two high - concentration AI ETFs last week, with unique investment strategies [2][6]. - In the past week, US domestic stock ETFs had an inflow of nearly $30 billion, while international stock and bond products had outflows. The Nasdaq ETF had an outflow again, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF had a stable inflow, and BlackRock's small - cap products had an inflow. Among bond products, high - yield bonds had an outflow and investment - grade bonds had an inflow [2][7]. - This year, due to high volatility in the US market, long - volatility products related to the VIX index have performed well, with some products having gains of over 10% [2][10]. - As of December 2025, the total amount of non - money mutual funds in the US decreased compared to November. From January 21 to 28, 2026, domestic stock funds had an outflow, international stock product outflows expanded, and bond product inflows expanded [2][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US ETF Innovation Products: FINQ Issues High - Concentration AI ETFs - Last week, there were 18 new ETF products in the US, and new strategy types emerged in single - stock products. GraniteShares launched a new single - stock snowball product, with the annualized snowball return of the NVIDIA - linked product reaching 17.83%. NEOS issued a series of accelerated high - yield ETFs. Tuttle Capital issued a UFO - related product. FINQ issued two AI ETFs, one investing in the top 13 - 16 S&P 500 component stocks scored by an AI model, and the other being a market - neutral ETF holding about 10 stocks with the highest and lowest scores respectively [2][5][6]. 3.2 US ETF Dynamics 3.2.1 US ETF Fund Flows: International Stock and Bond Products Have Outflows - In the past week, US domestic stock ETFs had an inflow of nearly $30 billion, while international products had an outflow. The Nasdaq ETF had an outflow again, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF had a stable inflow, and BlackRock's small - cap products had an inflow. In the precious metals market, silver ETFs had an inflow and gold ETFs had an outflow. Among bond products, high - yield bonds had an outflow and investment - grade bonds had an inflow [2][7][9]. 3.2.2 US ETF Performance: VIX Index - Related Products Lead in Gains - This year, due to high volatility in the US market, long - volatility products have performed well. For example, the 2 - times long - term VIX index product had a gain of over 15%, and short - term VIX index products had gains of over 10% [2][10]. 3.3 Recent Fund Flows of US Ordinary Mutual Funds - In December 2025, the total amount of non - money mutual funds in the US was $23.64 trillion, a decrease of $0.09 trillion compared to November. According to Wind data, the S&P 500 fell 0.05% in December, and the scale of US domestic equity products decreased by 1.03%. From January 21 to 28, 2026, domestic stock funds had an outflow of $12.849 billion, international stock product outflows expanded to $5 billion, and bond product inflows expanded to $16.7 billion [2][14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - FINQ issued two high - concentration AI ETFs last week in the US, with unique investment strategies [2][8]. - In the past week, US domestic stock ETFs had an inflow of nearly $30 billion, while international stock and bond products had outflows [2][10]. - This year, US market volatility has been high, and long - volatility products related to the VIX index have performed well [2][13]. - In December 2025, the total non - money mutual funds in the US decreased, and from January 21 to 28, domestic stock funds had outflows, international stock product outflows expanded, and bond product inflows increased [2][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 US ETF Innovation Products: FINQ Issues High - Concentration AI ETF - Last week, there were 18 new ETF products in the US, and single - stock products had a new strategy type. GraniteShares launched new single - stock snowball products, with a potential annualized snowball return of 17.83% for the NVIDIA - linked product. NEOS issued a series of accelerated high - yield ETFs, and Tuttle Capital launched a UFO - related product [7][8]. - FINQ issued two AI ETFs. The FINQ FIRST US Lg Cap AI - Mgd Equity ETF invests in 13 - 16 stocks with the highest scores from an AI model, and the market - neutral ETF holds about 10 stocks with the highest and lowest scores respectively [2][8]. 3.2 US ETF Dynamics - **US ETF Funds: International Stock and Bond Products Have Outflows** - In the past week, US domestic stock ETFs had an inflow of nearly $30 billion, while international products and international bond products had outflows. The Nasdaq ETF had outflows again, Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF had a stable inflow, and BlackRock's small - cap products had an inflow. In the precious metals market, silver ETFs had an inflow and gold ETFs had an outflow. High - yield bonds had outflows, and investment - grade bond products had inflows [2][10][12]. - **US ETF Performance: VIX Index - Related Products Have Top - Ranked Gains** - This year, due to high market volatility in the US, long - volatility products have performed well. For example, the 2x long - term VIX index product has a gain of over 15%, and short - term VIX index products have a gain of over 10% [2][13]. 3.3 Recent US Ordinary Mutual Fund Fund Flows - In December 2025, the total non - money mutual funds in the US were $23.64 trillion, a decrease of $0.09 trillion from November 2025. The S&P 500 fell 0.05% in December, and the scale of domestic stock products decreased by 1.03%. - From January 21 to 28, domestic stock funds had an outflow of $12.849 billion, international stock product outflows expanded to $5 billion, and bond product inflows expanded to $16.7 billion [2][17].

法币贬值风险 (Debasement 高盛关于贵金属市场（主要是黄金和白银）报告的主要内容总结，日期为2026年2月2日，基于几位核心分析师和 交易主管的观点： 核心观点与市场背景 主要驱动主题： 去美元化 (De-dollarisation)：这是最持久的主题。 各国央行持续增持黄金，全球持有的美债储备总量已低于黄金储备总量，且此趋势预计将在2026年延续。 高盛关于贵金属市场（主要是黄金和白银）报告的主要内容总结，日期为2026年2月2日，基于几位核心分析师和 交易主管的观点： 核心观点与市场背景 主要驱动主题： 去美元化 (De-dollarisation)：这是最持久的主题。 各国央行持续增持黄金，全球持有的美债储备总量已低于黄金储备总量，且此趋势预计将在2026年延续。 法币贬值风险 (Debasement ofFiat Currencies)：自2025年起，机构投资者因担忧法定货币长期贬值而寻求黄金等资产 进行配置。 去全球化 (De-globalization)与地缘政治秩序变化：地缘政治事件（如报告中提及的委内瑞拉和格陵兰岛相关事件） 及政策变动，导致投资者将黄金视为避险资产，这部分资金倾向 ...

各位朋友早上好，我是帮主。经过昨天A股市场的惊涛骇浪，今天一觉醒来，再看看全球大宗商品市 场，那景象叫一个"分裂"。一边，是国际油价单日暴跌近5%，创下半年多来最大跌幅；而另一边，昨 天惨遭血洗的黄金白银，却在深夜交易中悄悄爬回来一些，铜价也从暴跌中稍微稳住了阵脚。这很有意 思，对吧？昨天还一起"跳崖"的难兄难弟，过了一夜，似乎有点要"分道扬镳"的意思。这背后传递出的 信号，远比单纯的价格涨跌更重要，它或许正在为我们勾勒出下一阶段市场的资产地图。 我们先来看看跌得最惨的"带头大哥"——原油。它为什么跌这么狠？核心就两条：一是地缘风险的"溢 价"被挤掉了。特朗普总统表态希望与伊朗对话，让市场紧绷的神经一下子松了下来，之前因为担心战 争而提前买进去的"恐慌盘"，自然要获利了结。二是它被卷入了整个大宗商品的 "情绪踩踏" 。当黄 金、白银这些领头羊崩盘时，没有哪种商品能完全独善其身。但这里有个关键区别：一位资深交易员点 出，油价的下跌"更像是仓位调整，而不是基本面发生变化"。这句话很要害，它提示我们，原油的供需 格局可能并未逆转，下跌更多是短期情绪和资金行为。 那么，为什么铜和金银又能"爬回来"一些呢？这恰恰揭示了 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 调查：金价过山车！暴涨暴跌后你敢加仓吗？ 文章来源：金十数据 对于被众多投资者视作避险工具的黄金和白银而言，其价格暴跌的速度与规模令人心惊。 人们的第一反应往往是追问问题出在哪里——但这恰恰偏离了核心。此次抛售带来的真正启示，无关价 格走向或估值高低，而在于流动性层面，以及当海量资金试图同时撤离同一类"避险"交易时，市场会发 生何种连锁反应。 上周五，美联储的激烈批评者凯文・沃什（Kevin Warsh）被特朗普提名执掌美国央行，消息公布后， 黄金暴跌9%，白银重挫逾27%。这一走势表明，此次下跌绝非单纯的市场情绪转向，而是全球流动性 的突然收缩，且这一收缩直接传导至了被普遍视为实体价值储备的资产领域。 这并非一次基本面冲击：通胀数据并未突然变脸，政策预期也未在一夜之间反转。真正被打破的，是市 场的一个固有假设——那些被广泛认定为防御性的资产，在市场承压时仍能保持流动性。 当避险资产沦为拥挤的撤离通道 黄金和白银早已成为投资者大举持有的对冲工具，而这种高持仓状态营造出了一种安全假象。这种假象 的产生，并非因为其价格不会下跌，而是投资者认定其流动 ...

申万宏源策略 【申万宏源策略】联储换帅金银巨震，静待波动率回到低位 原创 阅读全文 ...

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corp (NYSE:DECK) shares increased by 15.1%, trading at $114.97 after reporting a fiscal third-quarter earnings per share of $3.33 and revenue of $1.96 billion, along with raised annual sales and profit forecasts [1] - Eight analysts raised their price targets for Deckers, with UBS setting a target of $161, up from $157 [1] Analyst Ratings - The majority of analysts remain bearish on Deckers, with 16 out of 26 rating it a "hold" or worse, while the 12-month consensus price target is $124.15, representing a 7.6% upside from current levels [2] - Despite the recent surge, Deckers shares are down approximately 11% over the past nine months [2] Options Activity - Today's options activity shows 8,000 calls traded, which is ten times the typical volume, compared to 8,430 puts, indicating significant interest in call options [3] - The most active contract is the expiring weekly 1/30 115-strike call, with new positions being opened [3] - Deckers' Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is at a high 99 out of 100, suggesting it has historically exceeded option traders' volatility expectations over the past year [3]

1. 期权的杠杆的来源 期权被誉为金融市场的 " 衍生品之王 " ，其最具吸引力也最具风险的特征之一便是 杠杆效应 。许多投资者被期权 " 以小额资金撬动大额收益 " 的潜力所吸引，却往往对其 杠杆原理与动态机制一知半解。深刻理解杠杆的本质与变化规律，是驾驭这一金融工具、避免被其反噬的关键。 与融资融券、期货等其他杠杆工具不同，期权的杠杆 内生于产品设计 。期权本质是一种 " 选择权 " ，买方通过支付 权利金 获得在未来约定时间以约定价格买入或卖出标 的资产的权利。该权利所对应的资产规模（如 100 股股票、一份指数合约等）的总市值，即为 标的资产价值 。期权的杠杆，正源于 标的资产价值 与 权利金 之间的悬殊比例 —— 以较小的资金代价，控制价值远高于自身的资产，从而形成收益与风险的放大效应。 这种"权利杠杆"与期货的"保证金杠杆"有本质区别。期货杠杆源于 投资者 为一份"未来必须履行"的买卖合同所缴纳的担保金，盈亏与标的资产波动直接挂钩，风险与收益对 称且可能无限。而期权（买方）杠杆则源于 投资者 为一份"未来可以选择是否履行"的权利所支付的"入场费"，其最大损失在买入时即已锁定，风险与收益是非对称的。 ...

Group 1 - The core issue highlighted is whether the financial system has adequately priced in the new normal amidst ongoing global challenges such as tariff conflicts, AI transformations, geopolitical tensions, and climate crises [1][3] - Engel identifies several sources of uncertainty for 2025, including tariff policies, anti-science sentiments in the U.S., immigration issues, and ongoing wars, which are increasing market volatility without sufficient caution from the market [3] - Engel's ARCH model serves as a tool for monitoring volatility rather than predicting market movements, emphasizing that it can indicate when volatility is high or low but cannot forecast market direction [5] Group 2 - Engel compares current tariff policies to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of the 1930s, suggesting that tariffs are detrimental to both parties involved and are unlikely to be sustainable [7] - He argues that AI should not be viewed as an independent source of market volatility, as it is fundamentally a probabilistic model that assists human decision-making rather than replacing it [7] - Engel stresses the importance of gradual and predictable policy adjustments to mitigate risks, as sudden changes can lead to reduced investment and consumption, ultimately slowing down the economy [7] Group 3 - For non-professional investors, Engel recommends using volatility control indices that automatically adjust positions based on market volatility, allowing for a gradual exit before major shocks occur [9] - He emphasizes the importance of disciplined risk management over market timing, suggesting that investors should build diversified portfolios with set volatility targets [9] - Engel expresses concern about potential escalations in wars, the re-emergence of stagflation, and stagnation in climate action, while remaining hopeful about improved U.S.-China relations that could benefit global economic stability [11]