Group 1 - The report highlights that the market may be overly optimistic about the quick resolution of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, indicating a significant expectation gap regarding the duration of the conflict and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which directly impacts oil prices and subsequently affects global asset prices [1][10]. - The current phase of the US-Israel-Iran conflict has transitioned from pure battlefield engagement to a "fighting while negotiating" scenario, creating a precarious political balance that complicates investment decisions [1][12]. Group 2 - The report introduces two volatility indicators, OVX and VIX, as essential tools for institutional investors to navigate the current geopolitical uncertainties. OVX measures the market's expectation of oil price volatility, while VIX gauges the expected volatility of the S&P 500 index, representing economic recession risks [2][14]. - A rapid increase in OVX coupled with a lagging VIX suggests that risks are still concentrated in the energy sector and have not yet fully transmitted to global macro credit risks or earnings expectations. A simultaneous upward movement in both indicators may signal a liquidity crisis or global economic recession triggered by geopolitical risks [2][14]. Group 3 - The investment strategy is categorized into four quadrants based on the relationship between OVX and VIX, providing tailored recommendations for different market conditions: 1. High OVX and fluctuating VIX suggest a local energy crisis, recommending an overweight in traditional energy and energy alternatives, particularly in sectors like power equipment and coal [3][26]. 2. High OVX and rapidly rising VIX indicate systemic recession or liquidity risks, prioritizing defensive strategies [3][26]. 3. A peak and decline in OVX with a downward-trending VIX suggest a transition to technology growth investments, recommending sectors such as computing power, semiconductors, and AI-related themes [3][26]. 4. A declining OVX with an unusually high VIX indicates the end of geopolitical tensions, but the impact of high oil prices on the economy persists, suggesting a shift towards high-dividend and low-volatility investments [3][26].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The additional issuance of 300,000 tons of import processing trade sliding - scale tariff quotas for cotton is likely to be beneficial to US cotton, leading to a narrowing of the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton. The impact on domestic cotton supply is relatively small, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton may follow the upward trend of US cotton [5]. - In the short - term, US cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly, and Zhengzhou cotton shows a strong technical trend. It is advisable to consider building long positions on dips instead of chasing high prices. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7][11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts are presented. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 15,880 with a price increase of 75, and the CY05 contract closed at 21,485 with a price decrease of 80 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The prices and price changes of various cotton and cotton yarn spot products are provided. For instance, the CCIndex3128B was priced at 16,884 yuan/ton with a price increase of 36, and the CY IndexC32S was priced at 22,000 with no price change [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spreads and their changes in cotton and cotton yarn across different periods and varieties are given. For example, the spread between the 1 - month and 5 - month cotton contracts was 400 with a price increase of 10 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - On March 16, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - bound cotton decreased by 1.69% month - on - month. It is expected to show a narrow - range fluctuation in the short - term [4]. - From January to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 8.6079 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textile products were 283.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [4]. - The total amount of sliding - scale tariff processing trade quotas for cotton imports in 2026 is 300,000 tons, and they are issued on a contract - based application basis [4]. - **Trading Logic**: The additional issuance of 300,000 tons of sliding - scale tariff quotas is beneficial to US cotton. The impact on domestic cotton supply is relatively small, and Zhengzhou cotton may follow the upward trend of US cotton [5]. - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and Zhengzhou cotton shows a strong technical trend. Consider building long positions on dips instead of chasing high prices [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [6]. - **Options**: Wait and see [7]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market is good, with high - and medium - count yarns selling well, while low - count yarns and rotor - spun yarns are weak. Downstream fabric mills have few long - term orders, but due to unstable factors such as geopolitical and oil prices, they are more willing to purchase raw materials. The overall price is stable, and inventory is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of orders in April and the trend of Zhengzhou cotton [7]. - The market of all - cotton grey fabrics continues, and the overall quotation is stable. The in - machine orders of fabric mills can be continuously produced, and the order time has been extended. The current operating rate of fabric mills is 60% - 70%, and the inventory of grey fabrics is about 25 days. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decrease in March, but the decline rate will slow down [7]. Third Part: Options - **Option Data**: The data of several cotton option contracts, including the closing price, price change rate, implied volatility, etc., are presented. For example, the CF605C14600.CZC contract closed at 334.00 with a price decrease of 16.9% [9]. - **Volatility**: The 60 - day HV of cotton is 9.2812, and the implied volatilities of several option contracts are also provided [9]. - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [11]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures, including the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton under 1% tariff, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the spread between CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01, and the spreads of CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [13][16][20][21].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have remained weak despite geopolitical tensions, failing to act as a safe haven for investors during the recent US-Iran conflict [2][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of March 11, the New York gold futures (main contract) were around $5,170 per ounce, down over 1% from pre-conflict levels [2][4]. - Following the outbreak of the conflict, gold prices initially rose on March 2 but fell sharply on March 3 and have not recovered since [2][4]. - The correlation between gold and the Dow Jones Industrial Average indicates that gold has not served as a refuge during emergencies [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The sharp increase in market volatility has contributed to the weakness in gold prices, as institutional investors were forced to sell profitable assets like gold to manage overall portfolio price fluctuations [5]. - Following the US-Iran conflict, prices of stocks and bonds fell significantly, prompting the sale of previously appreciated assets like gold and Korean stocks [5]. - The decline in silver prices, which dropped over 10% post-conflict, has further exacerbated the drop in gold prices due to their inherent price linkage [5]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The appreciation of the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields have created headwinds for gold prices, as gold is traded in dollars [7]. - For foreign investors, a stronger dollar and weaker local currencies diminish the returns when converted back to their local currencies [7]. - Gold does not yield interest, making it less attractive compared to rising bond yields [6][7]. Group 4: Volatility Indices - The volatility index for precious metals, based on option prices, has been high, with silver's volatility index remaining above 70 since mid-January [9]. - Gold's volatility index has also exceeded 30, surpassing that of the Nasdaq 100, indicating significant price fluctuations [9]. - Uncertainty surrounding US government policies towards Iran has made it difficult for investors to gauge the situation, leading to instability in gold prices [9].

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of inversion in the China-US interest rate differential has deepened, with inflation expectations also rising [2][14] - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally tightened, while the domestic interbank funding environment remains balanced and relatively loose [2][20] Market Trading Activity, Volatility, and Liquidity - Market trading activity continues to rise, with trading heat in sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, military industry, public utilities, and steel exceeding the 90th percentile [3][27] - Volatility has increased across major indices, with sectors like steel, military, oil and petrochemicals, and non-ferrous metals showing volatility above the 80th percentile [3][33] - Market liquidity indicators have improved, although all sectors remain below the 70th historical percentile [3][37] Institutional Research - The banking, electronics, computing, electric new energy, and pharmaceutical sectors are leading in research activity, with construction materials, computing, media, pharmaceuticals, and textiles showing a month-on-month increase in research heat [4][43] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have simultaneously downgraded net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2026/2027 [5][51] - The proportion of stocks with upgraded net profit forecasts for 2026/2027 has decreased across the A-share market [5][51] - Sectors such as computing, transportation, machinery, electricity, and public utilities have seen their net profit forecasts for 2026/2027 upgraded [5][4] - The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500 and ChiNext indices for 2026/2027 have been upgraded [5][23] - Mid-cap/small-cap growth and large/mid/small-cap value sectors have also seen their net profit forecasts for 2026/2027 upgraded [5][25] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has rebounded slightly, continuing to show a small net sell-off in A-shares [6][31] - In the top 10 active stocks, the buy-sell ratio for Northbound trading in sectors like telecommunications, electric new energy, and automobiles has increased, while it has decreased in non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, and electronics [6][32] - Northbound trading has mainly net bought in sectors such as electronics, electric new energy, and media, while net selling occurred in computing, military, and coal sectors [6][33] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has rapidly declined to the lowest point since mid-July 2025 [6][35] - The main net purchases in margin financing have been in oil and petrochemicals, transportation, and non-ferrous metals, while net selling occurred in TMT, electric new energy, and banking sectors [6][39] - Only sectors like agriculture, textiles, and transportation have seen an increase in the proportion of financing purchases [6][38] Trading Heat on the Dragon and Tiger List - The trading heat on the Dragon and Tiger list has decreased, with the total trading amount falling [7][41] - Sectors like oil and petrochemicals and agriculture have a relatively high trading amount on the Dragon and Tiger list, which is still on the rise [7][44] Active Equity Fund Positions - Active equity funds have continued to reduce their positions, while ETFs have seen a net redemption, although the pace has noticeably slowed [8][45] - After excluding price fluctuation factors, active equity funds have mainly increased positions in oil and petrochemicals, military, and media sectors, while reducing positions in electronics, telecommunications, and chemicals [8][47] - The correlation between active equity funds and small-cap growth/value has increased, while the correlation with large/mid-cap growth/value has decreased [8][48] - The scale of newly established equity funds has rebounded, with both active and passive new establishment scales increasing [8][50] - ETFs related to the CSI 500, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 have seen significant net redemptions, while ETFs tracking sectors like brokerages have been net subscribed [8][52]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records indicate a general downturn in the U.S. stock market, with significant declines across major indices, including a drop of 56 basis points to 6,831 points and a total trading volume of 22.2 billion shares, surpassing the year-to-date average of 19.45 billion shares [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Performance**: - The U.S. stock market experienced widespread declines, with notable drops in major indices: down 29 basis points to 25,020 points, down 191 basis points to 2,586 points, and down 161 basis points to 47,955 points [1][4]. - The market is characterized by profit-taking behavior, particularly in defensive sectors such as property and casualty insurance, real estate, consumer staples, and healthcare, which were sold off despite previous strong performance [2]. - **Sector Movements**: - Defensive sectors faced selling pressure, while previously underperforming sectors like alternative investments, fintech, payments, and software showed strong performance [2]. - Healthcare saw buying interest, contrasting with macro and communication services, which faced net selling pressure from hedge funds [5]. - **Economic Indicators**: - Employment data is anticipated, with expectations of +45,000 new jobs against a market expectation of +55,000, and an average hourly earnings (AHE) increase of 0.3% [3]. - The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.4%, but as long as the data remains positive, it is not expected to trigger significant market risk [3]. - **Trading Activity**: - The trading environment is described as lackluster, with a net selling of $1 billion by asset managers and a net selling of $700 million by hedge funds, indicating a lack of confidence among investors [3][5]. - The liquidity in the market remains high, with ETFs accounting for 40% of total trading volume, although top-of-book liquidity is low at $4.8 million [5]. - **Volatility and Options Trading**: - There is a notable increase in volatility, with strong buying of put options as the market experiences downward pressure [5]. - The S&P 500's put spread options are viewed as the most attractive short-term trade due to current skew levels [5]. Other Important Insights - The market is currently in an oversold condition, as indicated by Goldman Sachs' PB data showing positions at historical lows [2]. - Individual stocks have shown resilience in the face of negative news, with some, like WDAY, rebounding 25% after earnings reports [2]. - The overall trading sentiment is cautious, with a score of 4 out of 10 for trading activity, reflecting a lack of confidence in both bullish and bearish directions [3].

Group 1 - The article discusses the difference between two types of investors: those who remain calm during significant losses and those who panic over minor declines. The key distinction lies in their understanding of their investments [3] - Many investors experience pain due to a structural mismatch in risk-taking, which can occur at cognitive, behavioral, or financial levels [3][4] - The author emphasizes the importance of establishing a decision-making framework based on rules to maintain stability during market volatility [3] Group 2 - Investors should clearly understand the rationale behind their investments. Decisions based on luck or external recommendations are not true investments [4][5] - A solid investment decision begins with a clear narrative about the asset's potential returns and associated risks. Without this understanding, market fluctuations can lead to self-doubt [5][6] - It is crucial to identify one's cognitive boundaries and avoid investments that are not fully understood, as this is a simple yet effective way to prevent significant losses [5] Group 3 - The article clarifies that volatility should not be equated with risk. Market fluctuations are a normal part of market behavior, and as long as the underlying logic of the asset remains intact, these fluctuations do not pose a risk [7][8] - Misinterpreting volatility as risk can lead to poor decision-making, such as selling during market dips without understanding the asset's normal range of movement [8] Group 4 - Investors are encouraged to establish personal rules regarding when to sell, when to buy more, and when to hold, which can help mitigate emotional reactions during market fluctuations [9] - The focus should not only be on what to buy but also on how much to invest. Position sizing can significantly impact investment outcomes [10] Group 5 - Before making investments, it is essential to categorize available funds based on their intended use and time horizon, as this affects the ability to withstand market volatility [11] - Many investors' anxiety stems from mismatches between the nature of their funds and the investments made, highlighting the importance of aligning investment strategies with financial goals [11] Group 6 - For those who find the investment process overwhelming, a simple strategy involving a diversified portfolio of global stock index funds, bonds, and alternative assets can be effective [12][13] - This approach does not require constant market monitoring and relies on the stability of established rules rather than the accuracy of every decision [13] Group 7 - Achieving stability in investment during market fluctuations is not a matter of luck or talent but requires thorough preparation and self-awareness regarding investment goals and risk tolerance [14][15] - It is essential to predefine decision-making rules to prevent emotions from dictating actions during critical moments [16] - Investors should allow for mistakes in their position sizing to avoid catastrophic losses that could hinder future decision-making [17] - Proper financial structuring is necessary to ensure that the right funds are used for the right purposes, preventing time mismatches from causing undue stress [18] - Successfully implementing these strategies can make market fluctuations a mere process rather than a crisis [19] - Ultimately, investment is a personal journey of self-improvement rather than a battle against the market [20]

Core Insights - The bear market trend for Bitcoin is intensifying, which is negative news for long-term bulls [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Volatility is a key indicator for quantitative analysts to detect trends [1] - A rapid increase in volatility indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a bear market [1] - Sustained increases in volatility suggest that the bear market trend is strengthening [1] Group 2: Market Behavior - The peak of volatility typically occurs in the later stages of a bear market, signaling a potential weakening of the trend [1] - Smaller peaks in volatility may appear during the macro bottom, reflecting market capitulation [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - FINQ issued two high - concentration AI ETFs last week, with unique investment strategies [2][6]. - In the past week, US domestic stock ETFs had an inflow of nearly $30 billion, while international stock and bond products had outflows. The Nasdaq ETF had an outflow again, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF had a stable inflow, and BlackRock's small - cap products had an inflow. Among bond products, high - yield bonds had an outflow and investment - grade bonds had an inflow [2][7]. - This year, due to high volatility in the US market, long - volatility products related to the VIX index have performed well, with some products having gains of over 10% [2][10]. - As of December 2025, the total amount of non - money mutual funds in the US decreased compared to November. From January 21 to 28, 2026, domestic stock funds had an outflow, international stock product outflows expanded, and bond product inflows expanded [2][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US ETF Innovation Products: FINQ Issues High - Concentration AI ETFs - Last week, there were 18 new ETF products in the US, and new strategy types emerged in single - stock products. GraniteShares launched a new single - stock snowball product, with the annualized snowball return of the NVIDIA - linked product reaching 17.83%. NEOS issued a series of accelerated high - yield ETFs. Tuttle Capital issued a UFO - related product. FINQ issued two AI ETFs, one investing in the top 13 - 16 S&P 500 component stocks scored by an AI model, and the other being a market - neutral ETF holding about 10 stocks with the highest and lowest scores respectively [2][5][6]. 3.2 US ETF Dynamics 3.2.1 US ETF Fund Flows: International Stock and Bond Products Have Outflows - In the past week, US domestic stock ETFs had an inflow of nearly $30 billion, while international products had an outflow. The Nasdaq ETF had an outflow again, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF had a stable inflow, and BlackRock's small - cap products had an inflow. In the precious metals market, silver ETFs had an inflow and gold ETFs had an outflow. Among bond products, high - yield bonds had an outflow and investment - grade bonds had an inflow [2][7][9]. 3.2.2 US ETF Performance: VIX Index - Related Products Lead in Gains - This year, due to high volatility in the US market, long - volatility products have performed well. For example, the 2 - times long - term VIX index product had a gain of over 15%, and short - term VIX index products had gains of over 10% [2][10]. 3.3 Recent Fund Flows of US Ordinary Mutual Funds - In December 2025, the total amount of non - money mutual funds in the US was $23.64 trillion, a decrease of $0.09 trillion compared to November. According to Wind data, the S&P 500 fell 0.05% in December, and the scale of US domestic equity products decreased by 1.03%. From January 21 to 28, 2026, domestic stock funds had an outflow of $12.849 billion, international stock product outflows expanded to $5 billion, and bond product inflows expanded to $16.7 billion [2][14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - FINQ issued two high - concentration AI ETFs last week in the US, with unique investment strategies [2][8]. - In the past week, US domestic stock ETFs had an inflow of nearly $30 billion, while international stock and bond products had outflows [2][10]. - This year, US market volatility has been high, and long - volatility products related to the VIX index have performed well [2][13]. - In December 2025, the total non - money mutual funds in the US decreased, and from January 21 to 28, domestic stock funds had outflows, international stock product outflows expanded, and bond product inflows increased [2][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 US ETF Innovation Products: FINQ Issues High - Concentration AI ETF - Last week, there were 18 new ETF products in the US, and single - stock products had a new strategy type. GraniteShares launched new single - stock snowball products, with a potential annualized snowball return of 17.83% for the NVIDIA - linked product. NEOS issued a series of accelerated high - yield ETFs, and Tuttle Capital launched a UFO - related product [7][8]. - FINQ issued two AI ETFs. The FINQ FIRST US Lg Cap AI - Mgd Equity ETF invests in 13 - 16 stocks with the highest scores from an AI model, and the market - neutral ETF holds about 10 stocks with the highest and lowest scores respectively [2][8]. 3.2 US ETF Dynamics - **US ETF Funds: International Stock and Bond Products Have Outflows** - In the past week, US domestic stock ETFs had an inflow of nearly $30 billion, while international products and international bond products had outflows. The Nasdaq ETF had outflows again, Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF had a stable inflow, and BlackRock's small - cap products had an inflow. In the precious metals market, silver ETFs had an inflow and gold ETFs had an outflow. High - yield bonds had outflows, and investment - grade bond products had inflows [2][10][12]. - **US ETF Performance: VIX Index - Related Products Have Top - Ranked Gains** - This year, due to high market volatility in the US, long - volatility products have performed well. For example, the 2x long - term VIX index product has a gain of over 15%, and short - term VIX index products have a gain of over 10% [2][13]. 3.3 Recent US Ordinary Mutual Fund Fund Flows - In December 2025, the total non - money mutual funds in the US were $23.64 trillion, a decrease of $0.09 trillion from November 2025. The S&P 500 fell 0.05% in December, and the scale of domestic stock products decreased by 1.03%. - From January 21 to 28, domestic stock funds had an outflow of $12.849 billion, international stock product outflows expanded to $5 billion, and bond product inflows expanded to $16.7 billion [2][17].

Summary of Goldman Sachs' Precious Metals Market Report Industry Overview - **Industry**: Precious Metals Market (primarily Gold and Silver) [1] - **Date**: February 2, 2026 [1] Core Themes and Market Background - **De-dollarisation**: This is identified as the most enduring theme, with central banks continuing to increase gold holdings. Global U.S. Treasury reserves have fallen below gold reserves, a trend expected to continue into 2026 [1][1]. - **Debasement of Fiat Currencies**: Since 2025, institutional investors have sought assets like gold due to concerns over long-term currency devaluation [1][1]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - **De-globalization and Geopolitical Changes**: Events such as those in Venezuela and Greenland have led investors to view gold as a safe-haven asset, with funds inclined towards long-term holding [2][2]. Market Dynamics and Recent Price Movements - **Retail Investor Influence**: Retail investors have become a significant driver, contributing to a rapid price increase (e.g., gold prices surged from a forecast of $5,400 to over $5,400 within two weeks) [3][3]. - **"Perfect Storm" in Early 2026**: Prior to recent sell-offs, the precious metals market experienced strong macro buying, with speculative positions in China nearing full long positions, and competition for physical metals between China and India [3][3]. - **February 1, 2026 Sell-off**: Gold prices fell by 9% and silver by 26%, marking the largest single-day drop since the early 1980s, triggered by the nomination of Warsh as the next Fed Chair, interpreted as a potential strengthening of the Fed's independence and hawkish stance [3][3]. - **Unusual Chinese Market Behavior**: China continued to incentivize imports despite high prices, which is atypical as demand usually responds to price sensitivity [3][3]. Market Structure and Liquidity - **Volatility**: Implied volatility for gold is at historical highs (e.g., one-month volatility reached 40%), leading to high costs for options trading [5][5]. - **Liquidity Squeeze in Silver**: The silver market faces ongoing liquidity pressures due to low available inventory in London, expected to continue causing high price volatility [5][5]. - **Record ETF Trading**: The week of the report saw record nominal trading volumes for spot gold and silver ETFs, with a focus on whether the largest gold ETF (GLD) can maintain stable holdings post-sell-off [5][5]. Internal Strategies and Position Management - **Cautious Position Management**: Goldman Sachs has significantly reduced directional long risk exposure, acknowledging that while the structural bull market logic remains, investment demand has pushed prices too quickly, creating discomfort with high-risk positions [6][6][8][8]. Opportunities and Predictions - **Volatility-Related Strategies**: The team sees potential in shorting high volatility as the market normalizes, with a focus on key price levels [9][9]. - **Gold Price Forecast**: The target price for gold remains at $5,400 per ounce by December 2026, assuming central banks continue purchasing 60 tons of gold monthly and the Fed cuts rates twice in 2026 [10][10]. - **Upward Risk Bias**: The report indicates that risks to the gold price forecast are significantly skewed upwards due to global macro policy uncertainties and low current allocations of gold in investment portfolios [11][12]. Regional Market Insights - **Key Buyers**: China and India are highlighted as crucial physical buyers, with retail demand, especially for silver, being a significant driver of recent price increases [13][13]. - **Speculative Inflows**: Chinese speculative funds are re-entering the market through various domestic channels, with a need to monitor changes in holdings and import arbitrage opportunities [14][14]. Conclusion - The report outlines a precious metals market that is structurally strong in the long term but facing short-term adjustment pressures due to rapid price increases [15][15]. - Core drivers such as de-dollarisation, currency debasement, and geopolitical risks remain solid, supporting a long-term bullish outlook [16][16]. - However, the market has become extremely fragile and sensitive, with high volatility and potential liquidity issues making it susceptible to sharp price corrections due to unexpected events [17][18].