波动率数据日报 历史波动率分位数排名 0. 83 300位指 0.84 中聘 0.54 PTA 0.80 PTA 0.27 五年 0.43 50ETF 0 39 PVC 0.38 24.4 6 0.19 天峻 0.38 300 版 猫 031 字母 019 棒花 0.18 45 0.05 0.16 HAR 0.04 75 87 0.26 炸花 0.04 五米 0.09 钟 0.03 45 0.07 品 析 L 0.02 白练 台新 0.01 I 0 0.2 03 0.6 0.1 0.4 05 0.7 0.8 0 a 1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0 a 1 永安期货期权总部 更新时间: 2025/8/25 一、隐含波动率指数、历史波动率及其价差走势图 1、金融期权隐含波动率指数反映截止上一交易日的30日隐波走势,商品期权隐含波动 率指数通过主力月平值期权上下两档隐波加权所得,反映主力合约的隐波变化趋势。2 隐波指数与历史波动率的差值,差值越大反映隐波相对历史波动率越高,差值越小代 表隐波相对历史波动率越低。 70 -300股指IV -- 300股指HV IVHV差 - ...

宏观流动性： 上周美元指数继续回落，中美利差"倒挂"程度有所收敛。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均回落，通胀预期有所回升。离岸 美元流动性有所收紧，国内银行间资金面整体平衡、先紧后松，期限利差(10Y-1Y)走阔。 交易热度、波动与流动性： 市场交易热度继续回升，主要指数波动率均明显回升。行业上，计算机、机械、通信、消费者服务、汽车、电子等板 块交易热度在 80%分位数以上，大多数行业波动率均在 60%分位数以下。 机构调研： 电子、通信、计算机、汽车、医药等板块调研热度居前，商贸零售、有色、钢铁、电子、化工等板块的调研热度环比 仍在上升。 分析师预测： 全 A 的 25/26 年净利润预测分别被下调/上调。行业上，钢铁、煤炭、传媒、计算机等板块 25/26 年净利润预测均被 上调。指数上，上证 50 的 25/26 年净利润预测均被上调,中证 500、创业板指的 25/26 年净利润预测均被下调。风格 上，大盘成长/价值的 25/26 年的净利润预测均被上调，中盘/小盘成长、小盘价值的 25/26 年的净利润预测均被下调。 北上活跃度回升，整体净卖出 节奏上，北上经历了"净买入-净卖出-净买入"的过程。基于前 ...

Group 1 - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract month, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility: a larger difference indicates that the implied volatility is relatively higher than historical volatility, and a smaller difference means it is relatively lower [3] Group 2 - The implied volatility quantile represents the current level of a variety's implied volatility in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low [5] - The volatility spread is the implied volatility index minus the historical volatility [5]

=: F0251925 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期 权数据日报 于一个工干量中心 上证50历史波动率 力史波动率链 0.5 醫小值 -最大值 -- 10%分位值 0.45 30%分位值 -- 60%分位值 · 当前值 0.4 90%分位值 0.35 0.3 80% 0.25 70%6 0.2 60% 0.15 40% 0.1 30% 0.05 20% 0 10% 2025-03-26 2025-04-26 2025-05-26 2025-06-26 2025-07-26 0% - HV5 - HV20 - 20日 40日 eo日 120日 - HAEO 日 上证50下月平值隐波 波动车微笑曲线 0.4 -- 2509 2508 0.35 0.36 - 0.3 0.33 0.3 - 0.25 0.27 0.24 0.2 0.21 0.15 0.18 0.15 0.1 0.12 0.09 2300 2450 2550 2375 沪深300波动率分析 沪深300历史波动率 历史波动率链 0.6 - 最小值 -- 最大值 -- 10%分位值 30%分位值 == 60%分位值 0.5 9 ...

Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Historical Volatility - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day. The commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the IV of the two - strike options around the at - the - money option of the front - month contract, reflecting the IV change trend of the front - month contract [3] - The difference between the IV index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means higher IV relative to HV, and a smaller difference means lower IV relative to HV [3] Group 2: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Graphs - The document presents graphs showing the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences for various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, and many commodity options such as silver, soybean meal, corn, etc [4] Group 3: Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking - Implied volatility quantile represents the current level of a variety's IV in history. A high quantile means the current IV is high, and a low quantile means the current IV is low. Volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility [5] - The document provides the implied volatility quantile rankings for different options, such as PVC with a quantile of 0.92, PTA with 0.39, etc [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the dual impact of significant capital expenditures by tech giants driving cyclical stocks up, while macro uncertainties such as Trump's tariffs and interest rate paths cast a shadow over market prospects [2][6] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current earnings season has seen an unprecedented volatility in stock prices, with actual price movements on earnings days exceeding implied volatility for the first time in 18 years [2][3] - The market is increasingly sensitive to corporate performance, indicating that both opportunities and risks for individual stocks are amplifying [4][3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Trump's tariffs are identified as a major variable affecting future inflation paths, with Goldman Sachs indicating that without tariffs, the actual inflation momentum in the U.S. remains moderate [6] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are under scrutiny, with market participants focusing on leading indicators such as unemployment rates in the tech sector to gauge future rate cuts [6] Group 3: Investment Trends - European bank stocks have outperformed U.S. mega-cap tech stocks over the past five years, except for a narrow window around late 2022 [7] - The trend of "de-equitization" in the UK stock market is highlighted, with significant acquisition activity indicating potential investment opportunities regardless of policy outcomes [7] - Retail trading activity remains robust despite economic concerns, suggesting that this trend may persist longer than professional investors anticipate [7]

Crypto Market Opportunities - Crypto market opportunities stem from high-leverage volatility, unregulated on-chain transactions, Wall Street investment in major cryptocurrencies, and Trump's endorsement of dollar-backed ecosystems [1] - Native altcoins opportunities in the crypto market involve PVP contract trading, Pre TGE projects, new coins, deep market corrections, and manipulation by wealthy entities, shifting the market structure from a football shape to a barbell shape [1] Market Comparison - The report suggests a comparison between the crypto market and the US stock market, highlighting the performance of stocks like Futu Holdings ($FUTU), which increased by 120% from its April bottom, and MP Materials ($MP), which increased by 75% in a month following positive news [1] - Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), with ETF support, are considered outside traditional market influences, with their value significantly impacted by NASDAQ inflows [1] Altcoin Market Indicator - SOL is identified as a potential indicator for the altcoin market [1]

Group 1: Introduction to Volatility Data - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the IV of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the IV change trend of the main contract [2] - The difference between the IV index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means higher IV relative to HV, and a smaller difference means lower IV relative to HV [2] Group 2: Volatility Index Charts - Charts show the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences for various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, and many commodity options like silver, soybean meal, corn, etc [3] Group 3: Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current level of a variety's IV in history. A high quantile means high current IV, and a low quantile means low current IV. Volatility spread refers to the difference between the IV index and historical volatility [4] - Quantile rankings are provided for different options such as PVC, PTA, 50ETF, 300 - stock index, etc [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific report industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market risk preference remains high. For stock index futures, it is recommended to continue holding long positions; for stock index options, it is advisable to appropriately reduce the directional exposure of small - cap stocks in the short term; for treasury bond futures, the bond market sentiment is relatively warm [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **View**: Continue to hold long positions. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts are - 8.47 points, - 1.51 points, - 38.14 points, and - 34.15 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 2.38 points, 0.31 points, - 7.57 points, and - 7.24 points. The spreads between current - month and next - month contracts are 13.6 points, - 1.0 point, 73.0 points, and 78.0 points, with a month - on - month change of 3.2 points, - 0.4 point, 9.4 points, and 6.2 points. The total open interest changes are 7431 lots, 2077 lots, 3443 lots, and 4114 lots. The upward trend of the market has not changed. In August, the tone is still positive due to factors such as strong capital inflow, low probability of mid - report disappointment, and the weakening US dollar index. It is recommended to continue holding IM long positions [8]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **View**: Appropriately reduce the directional exposure of small - cap stocks in the short term. The underlying market showed mixed trends and was in a volatile state. The trading volume of the options market was 6 billion and 60 million yuan, a 16.85% increase from the previous day. The sentiment indicators remained similar to the previous day, with the MO skew reaching a half - year high, indicating continued defensive sentiment in the small - cap segment. Volatility increased in small - cap and ChiNext stocks. It is recommended to continue the medium - term covered call strategy and reduce the short - term directional exposure of small - cap stocks [2][9]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: The bond market sentiment is warm. Most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year main contracts rising by 0.03%, 0.05%, and 0.05% respectively, and the 2 - year main contract remaining flat. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined. Although the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 12.25 billion yuan in the open market, the capital market remained loose. The central bank's 70 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation is beneficial to the bond market. However, the high market risk preference and potential factors such as the increase in long - term bond supply in the third quarter and the introduction of growth - stabilizing policies may have an impact on the bond market. Different strategies are proposed for different trading purposes [3][10][11]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic calendar includes data such as the US factory orders in June, the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in July, China's trade balance in July, the UK central bank's benchmark interest rate in August, the US initial jobless claims in the week ending August 2nd, and China's M2 money supply annual rate in July [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Export**: In the first seven months, ASEAN was China's largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 4.29 trillion yuan, a 9.4% increase. The EU was the second - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 3.35 trillion yuan, a 3.9% increase. The US was the third - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 2.42 trillion yuan, an 11.1% decrease. China's total imports and exports to the Belt and Road Initiative countries increased by 5.5% [13]. - **Retail and Commerce**: The Shanghai SASAC launched a campaign for the rejuvenation of local state - owned time - honored brands, aiming to promote brand development through various measures such as open cooperation, improving market - oriented operation mechanisms, and attracting professional talents [13]. - **Power**: Shandong Province issued a reform plan for the market - based on - grid electricity price of new energy, stating that the on - grid electricity of new energy projects such as wind and solar power will enter the power market, and the on - grid electricity price will be determined through market transactions [14]. - **Education**: The state - wide policy of exempting preschool education fees for all children in the senior class of kindergartens is expected to benefit about 12 million people this autumn [14]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The content only lists the categories of stock index futures data, stock index options data, and treasury bond futures data, but no specific data is provided [15][19][31].

Financial Engineering - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced fluctuations from July 28 to August 1, closing at 3559.95 with a decrease in trading volume compared to the previous week [2] - The Shenzhen Composite Index also saw a decline, with a drop of 1.58% and a closing value of 10991.32, alongside reduced trading volume [2] ETF Performance - The 50ETF opened at 2.917 and closed at 2.876, reflecting a decrease of 0.040 or 1.37%, with a trading volume of 10.865 billion [3] - The Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF opened at 4.203 and closed at 4.133, down by 0.070 or 1.67%, with a trading volume of 17.173 billion [3] - The Southern CSI 500 ETF opened at 6.365 and closed at 6.287, showing a decrease of 0.078 or 1.23%, with a trading volume of 6.109 billion [3] Options Market - From July 28 to August 1, the average daily trading volume of 50ETF options decreased compared to the previous week, while total open interest increased, with a PCR of 0.84, down 0.14 from the previous week [4] - The Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF options also saw a decrease in average daily trading volume, with total open interest increasing and a PCR of 0.89, down 0.14 [4] - The Southern CSI 500 ETF options experienced a reduction in average daily trading volume, with total open interest increasing and a PCR of 1.07, up 0.06 [4] Volatility Analysis - Short-term volatility has slightly increased, with monthly volatility trending upwards, while implied volatility has been declining throughout the week [5] - The implied volatility levels for the 50ETF and 300ETF have shown a downward trend, indicating increased market expectations for future volatility [5] Investment Recommendations - The market has shown varying degrees of decline, with all three options benchmarks dropping over 1%, and the PCR ratios indicating a decrease for the 50ETF and 300ETF, while the put option ratio for the 500ETF has risen [6] - Given the current market conditions and the shift in implied volatility curves, a cautious stance is recommended for small-cap growth stocks, while larger blue-chip stocks like the 50ETF and 300ETF may be more favorable [6]