1 | 国夜期货 | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月08日 | | 黄金 | 白银 ★☆☆ | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属回落，美国12月ADP就业人数增加4.1万人，咯低于预期但好于前值，ISM非制造业PMI54.4好于预 期和前值,上期所调整白银期货交易限额、合约交易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度。开年全球地缘乱局延续, 资金情绪主导剧烈波动,贵金属在前高位置测试阻力,考虑参与突破行情或等待波动率下降后寻找再入场机 会。今晚关注美国周度初请失业金数据。 ★美国务卿称下周将与丹麦举行会晤，讨论格陵兰岛议题。 ★特朗普: ...

| 国夜期货 | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月08日 | | 黄金 | 白银 ★☆☆ | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属回落，美国12月ADP就业人数增加4.1万人，咯低于预期但好于前值，ISM非制造业PMI54.4好于预 期和前值,上期所调整白银期货交易限额、合约交易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度。开年全球地缘乱局延续, 资金情绪主导剧烈波动,贵金属在前高位置测试阻力,考虑参与突破行情或等待波动率下降后寻找再入场机 会。今晚关注美国周度初请失业金数据。 ★美国务卿称下周将与丹麦举行会晤，讨论格陵兰岛议题。 ★特朗普:20 ...

宏观流动性： 上周美元指数有所回升，中美利差"倒挂"程度有所加深。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均回升，通胀预期回升。离岸美元 流动性边际宽松，国内银行间资金面均衡，期限利差(10Y-1Y)收窄。 交易热度、波动与流动性： 市场交易热度继续回升，主要指数波动率均回升。军工、纺服、轻工、商贸零售、消费者服务等板块的交易热度均处 于 80%分位数以上。通信、电新、电子、化工板块的波动率均依然处于 80%历史分位数以上。 机构调研： 基于前 10 大活跃股口径，北上在有色、军工、汽车等板块的买卖总额之比上升，在电子、通信、电新等板块回落。基 于北上持股数量小于 3000 万股的标的口径：北上主要净买入电子、军工、有色等板块，净卖出食品饮料、纺服等板 块。综合来看：北上可能主要净买入军工、有色、汽车、机械、非银等板块，净卖出食品饮料等板块。 两融活跃度有所回落，但仍处于 2025 年 11 月以来的相对高位 上周两融净卖出 22.73 亿元，行业上，主要净买入军工、电力及公用事业、传媒等板块，净卖出非银、通信、电子等 板块。电力及公用事业、家电、食品饮料等板块融资买入占比上升。风格上，两融仅净卖出中盘成长、大盘价值。 龙 ...

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 广发期货有限公司提醒广大投资者:期市有风险 入市需谨慎! axes 注微信公众 | 贵金属期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月5日 | | | | | tH lles | Z0016628 | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | | 面积 | | 12月31日 | 12月30日 | 旅跌 | 旅跌幅 | 单位 | | AU2602合约 | | 977.56 | 984.84 | -7.28 | -0.74% | 元/完 | | AG2602合约 | | 17074 | 18140 | -1066 | -5.88% | 元/十兄 | | PT2606合约 | | 527.25 | 589.85 | -62.60 | -10.61% | | | PD2606合约 | | 425.20 | 447.45 | -22.25 | -4.97% | 元/克 | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | | 品 ...

金融工程研究 期权周报 证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 4 日 湘财证券研究所 上交所期权周报 12 月 29 日至 12 月 31 日，沪指周中震荡，当周收于 3968.84，成交量较 前一周有所降低。深指周中震荡，当周收于 13525.02，成交量较前一周 有所降低。 50ETF 周初开于 3.120，周末收于 3.105，较前一周下跌 0.015，跌幅为 0.48%，成交额 59.81 亿。华泰柏瑞沪深 300ETF 周初开于 4.780，周末收 于 4.753，较前一周下跌 0.031，跌幅为 0.65%，成交额 95.21 亿。南方中 证 500ETF 周初开于 7.579，周末收于 7.588，较前一周上涨 0.008，涨幅 为 0.11%，成交额 77.77 亿。 ❑ 期权市场 12 月 29 日至 12 月 31 日，50ETF 期权日均成交量较上周有所减少，总持 仓量增加，总持仓量 PCR 为 0.92，较上周末降 0.06。华泰柏瑞沪深 300ETF期权日均成交量较上周有所减少，总持仓量增加，总持仓量PCR 为 0.87，较上周末降 0.09。南方中证 500ETF 期权日均成交量较上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of various CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) strategies in 2023, highlighting the significant differences in returns among different sub-strategies and the impact of market conditions on these performances [10][18]. Strategy Environment - The overall volatility in the commodity market in 2023 was relatively low compared to the previous two years, with specific events causing temporary spikes in volatility [10][12]. - The market experienced a mix of trends, with a clear upward trend in commodities following the "anti-involution" sentiment in July, but subsequently entering a phase of oscillation and correction [13][16]. Performance Analysis Top Performers - The best-performing strategy was the composite CTA strategy, which integrates multiple sub-strategies to adapt to varying market conditions, achieving strong absolute returns [20]. - Long-term trend-following strategies also performed well, effectively filtering out short-term noise and capturing significant trends in precious metals and industrial commodities [21][22]. Underperformers - Short to medium-term trend strategies struggled due to their reliance on weekly signals, which often led to losses as market reversals occurred shortly after trend identification [24]. - Stock index CTA strategies performed poorly overall, primarily due to low volatility and insufficient trend continuity throughout the year [25]. - Subjective trend CTA strategies showed mixed results, heavily dependent on the fund managers' ability to accurately interpret market trends [26]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the value of CTA strategies lies not only in crisis alpha but also in the diverse trading methods that provide high Sharpe ratios [27]. - For a better holding experience, it is recommended to choose composite CTAs, while those optimistic about commodity market opportunities in the coming year may consider private commodity index enhancements [28].

Market Overview - A-shares remain stable with controllable risks, suggesting opportunities for low-cost investments in high-prosperity sectors. The macro strategy team indicates that market enthusiasm for chasing high prices is still weak, but the index remains relatively stable, expected to maintain a fluctuating structure with controllable risks. Signs of market stabilization have become more apparent since December, particularly in high-prosperity sectors that have shown resilience. It is recommended to preferentially invest in industries with upward trends in prosperity and patiently await the upcoming spring market [1][4][6]. Stock Market Factors - Last week, market style shifted slightly towards large-cap stocks, with a value-oriented approach gaining traction compared to the previous week. The volatility of both large-cap and value-growth styles remained low. The dispersion of excess returns among industries and the speed of industry rotation have reversed, showing an increase, while the proportion of rising constituent stocks has decreased. The trading concentration of the top 100 stocks remained stable, with a slight decline in the trading concentration of the top five industries [6][8]. Commodity Market Factors - In the commodity market, all sectors except for the black metal sector showed an upward trend in strength. The efficiency coefficients for precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products remained high. The basis momentum for precious metals saw a significant decline, while the basis momentum for energy and black metal sectors increased. Volatility increased in all sectors except for precious metals and agricultural products, and liquidity decreased in the energy and agricultural sectors, while other sectors saw a slight increase [20][21]. Options Market Factors - The implied volatility of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the CSI 1000 rebounded from low levels last week. In terms of volatility skew, both call and put options for the Shanghai index decreased, while the put option skew for the CSI 1000 continued to rise, indicating that the market has experienced some risk release, with small-cap styles still accumulating risks [29]. Convertible Bond Market Factors - The convertible bond market stabilized and showed signs of recovery last week. The valuation of bonds reached a new high for the year in terms of the premium rate for conversion at 100 yuan, maintaining a trend of oscillation and increase. The pure bond premium rate for debt-type groupings saw a slight increase, while the proportion of low premium conversion bonds continued to decline, remaining at a low level. Market transaction volume rebounded, surpassing the historical median for the past year [31].

金融期权|2026 年展望 2026 年金融期权展望 2025 年 12 月 23 日 证监许可[2011]1773 号 分析师： 2025 年金融期权市场呈现结构性变化与情绪分化特征，表现如下： 市场成交结构显著分化：成交增长主要由中证 1000 指数期权、中证 500ETF 期权及双创（科创 50、创业板）期权拉动，其中双创期权日均成交 额增长约50%。中证1000指数期权以33.69%的占比成为市场份额最大品种， 而上证 50ETF 期权份额持续萎缩至 6%左右，显示资金关注点仍在中小盘及 成长类指数。 黎伟 市场情绪与波动特征：持仓 PCR 值全年重心上移，虽从高位回落但仍 处历史中高水平，表明卖出看跌期权比例较高，市场中期情绪依然偏向乐 观。隐含波动率全年均值较 2024 年有所下降，即便在 8 月快速上涨行情中 也未触及历史极端高位，波动环境整体较为温和。同时，隐波负偏比例较 2024 年提升，主因在于市场中性策略产品扩容，其在现货端买入股票并在 衍生品端对冲，导致期货贴水扩大，进而推高了看跌期权的相对价值。 期权策略表现回顾：基于合成标的升贴水的量化择时策略收益稳健， 全年获得 23.6%的绝对 ...

华尔街正为2026年美股市场的持续动荡做准备，投资者在对人工智能反弹的错失恐惧症（FOMO）与资 产泡沫即将破裂的焦虑之间反复摇摆。 策略师们指出，过去18个月市场呈现出大规模抛售与快速反转并存的特征，这一趋势极有可能在2026年 延续。随着AI技术革命经历繁荣与萧条的循环，处于投资热潮中心的科技巨头将继续对市场施加巨大 的影响力，其股价的大幅波动预计将成为常态。 除了宏观叙事，技术因素也在重塑期权定价。 花旗集团英国、欧洲、中东及非洲机构结构负责人Antoine Porcheret预计，2026年波动率曲线将加剧陡 峭化。这主要是由于投资流动的失衡：在曲线的短端，量化投资策略（QIS）和波动率卖出策略的显著 增长提供了大量供应，抑制了短期波动率；而在长端，对冲资金流将使波动率保持在高位。 尽管2025年科技股的强劲表现与其他板块的疲软相互抵消，这种各板块间的背离在一定程度上抑制了市 场的实际波动率，但投资者仍需警惕芯片股下跌可能引发的风险扩散。一旦宏观驱动因素重新占据主导 地位，此前被压抑的波动性可能导致Cboe波动率指数（VIX）等指标急剧飙升。 据美国银行的调查显示，尽管股价涨幅令基金经理将泡沫担忧视为 ...

Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Historical Volatility - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is weighted by the implied volatilities of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility indicates the relative level of implied volatility to historical volatility. A larger difference means higher implied volatility relative to historical volatility, and a smaller difference means lower [3] Group 2: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Difference Chart - The chart shows the IV - HV differences of various financial and commodity options, including 300股指, 50ETF, 1000股指, 500ETF, and many commodity options such as soybean meal, corn, sugar, cotton, etc [4] Group 3: Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current implied volatility level of a variety in history. A high quantile means high current implied volatility, and a low quantile means low [5] - The document presents the implied volatility quantile rankings and historical volatility quantile rankings of different varieties such as PTA, 50ETF, 300股指, etc [6]