投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 3 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2606 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 政策持续利好 VS 中东地缘危机 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡回调。中东地缘局势的演变路径仍然是影响股指短线走势的主要因素。 关于美伊谈判方面，近期伊朗方面传出与美国方面不一致的消息，这意味着双 ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 3 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2606 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 政策持续利好 VS 中东地缘危机 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡收涨。消息面，地时间 3 月 24 日，美国政府通过巴基斯坦向伊朗提出 一份包含 15 项条件的结束冲突方案。这意味着中东地缘风险有 ...

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2606 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 政策持续利好 VS 中东地缘危机 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 3 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡大幅反弹。美伊局势反复搅动市场，国际油价下跌，股市全面反弹。短 期内美以伊冲突仍是全球资产的主要定价锚，在局势明朗前，股市高波动状态或将延续。一旦 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 == 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 期货执业证号:F3074875; 2026/3/20 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | | | | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较削值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | | | | | | | | (bp) | | ਵਿ | DR001 | 1.32 | 0.06 | DR007 | 1.43 | -0.61 | | E | GC001 | 1.30 | -6.00 | GC007 | 1.49 | 0.00 | | 市 | SHBOR 3M | 1.53 | -0.40 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 场 | 1年期国债 | 1.24 | -0.80 | 5年期国债 | 1.55 | 0.00 | | | 10年期国债 | 1.83 | 0.50 | 10年期美债 | 4.26 | 6.00 | | F | 回顾:央 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is range - bound, with the co - existence of macro - recession risks caused by the Middle East geopolitical crisis and continuous policy benefits [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2606, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is bullish, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is the co - existence of continuous policy benefits and the Middle East geopolitical crisis [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is that yesterday, each stock index oscillated and declined. The continuous escalation of the Middle East geopolitical crisis has increased risks such as global energy supply shortage, key raw material supply chain interruption, and macro - economic recession. The Fed's interest rate decision in March maintained the interest rate and said it would not cut interest rates before inflation improved, leading to a marginal tightening of the global liquidity environment and a decline in the stock market valuation level. As the Shanghai Composite Index fell to around the 4000 - point mark, the support of continuous policy benefits gradually emerged. The policy focuses on stabilizing corporate profit expectations and developing new - quality productivity. In the short term, the stock index is mainly range - bound [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is mainly range - bound, with the co - existence of continuous policy benefits and global economic stagflation risks [1][5] - The current stock market has a mix of long and short factors, investors' risk appetite is cautious, and trading volume has shrunk. Policy support is strong, but the long - term risk of the Middle East geopolitical crisis and global economic stagflation have put pressure on the stock performance and valuation [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2606, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "bullish", and the reference view is "range - bound". The core logic is the co - existence of continuous policy benefits and global economic stagflation risks [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is "bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range - bound". The core logic is that the stock index continued to oscillate and consolidate yesterday. A - share trading volume shrank. There are a mix of long and short factors in the stock market, with policy support and risks of global economic stagflation [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The liquidity market has been generally loose since March, with the weighted average rate of DR001 maintained around 1.32%. The central bank conducted 510 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, resulting in a net injection of 115 billion yuan after 395 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured. This week, 1765 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open - market operations [3][4]. - Yesterday, the stock index trends were divergent. The large - financial sector supported the market, while the small - and medium - cap stocks fell significantly. Due to limited incremental information from the Sino - US economic and trade representatives' meeting in Paris, the threat of a postponed visit by US President Trump to China, uncertainties in the Middle East conflict, rising crude oil prices, and increased inflation pressure and impact on global capital market liquidity, domestic small - and medium - cap stocks were dragged down. The stock index is expected to continue in a volatile pattern and may restart an upward trend as external inflation pressure eases and market risk appetite recovers. Strategically, investors can consider building long positions using the premium advantage of stock index futures in the medium - to - long - term while controlling positions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Interest Rate and Bond Market - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.32% with a 0.04 bp increase, DR007 at 1.43% with a 1.75 bp decrease, GC001 at 1.47% with a 3.50 bp decrease, GC007 at 1.52% with a 1.50 bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.54% with a 0.22 bp decrease, and LPR 5 - year at 3.50% with no change [3]. - **Bond Yields**: The 1 - year treasury bond yield was 1.25% with a 0.75 bp decrease, the 5 - year treasury bond yield was 1.56% with a 0.40 bp decrease, the 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.84% with a 0.29 bp decrease, and the 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.23% with a 5.00 bp decrease [3]. Stock Index and Futures - **Stock Indexes**: The CSI 300 fell 0.73% to 4637, the SSE 50 rose 0.32% to 2964, the CSI 500 fell 2.07% to 8016, and the CSI 1000 fell 2.33% to 8020 [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: IF当月 fell 0.7% to 4629, IH当月 rose 0.3% to 2962, IC当月 fell 2.2% to 8000, and IM当月 fell 2.1% to 8014. In terms of trading volume and open interest, IF trading volume increased 17.4% to 146,045, and open interest increased 2.5% to 280,450; IH trading volume increased 14.7% to 69,141, and open interest decreased 3.2% to 106,613; IC trading volume increased 0.3% to 170,339, and open interest decreased 2.7% to 294,227; IM trading volume increased 7.7% to 235,540, and open interest increased 0.1% to 382,072 [5]. - **Futures Premium/Discount**: IF's premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 22.67%, 6.20%, 6.67%, and 6.86% respectively; IH's were 6.48%, 3.41%, 3.01%, and 3.89% respectively; IC's were 24.32%, 9.70%, 9.99%, and 9.45% respectively; IM's were 8.89%, 10.11%, 12.06%, and 11.21% respectively [7]. Stock Market Trading Volume and Sector Performance - The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.22 trillion yuan, a decrease of 115.4 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed lower, with the insurance, chemical fiber, and real - estate services sectors leading the gains, and the communication equipment, electronic chemicals, components, power supply equipment, non - metallic materials, marine equipment, battery, and aerospace equipment sectors leading the losses [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report presents a weekly overview of futures price and volume, including the closing prices, weekly price changes, 20 - day annualized volatility, volatility changes, speculation degree, trend degree, and capital changes of various futures varieties across different categories such as precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black commodities, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, livestock products, and financial futures. It also shows the year - to - date price changes and the weekly average position and capital changes of some varieties. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - Gold closed at 1,133.00 with a weekly decline of 0.68%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 27.75% (down 60.58%), speculation degree of 1.92, trend degree of - 0.03, and capital inflow of 114.11 [2]. - Silver closed at 20,923.00, down 2.83% weekly, with 90.70% volatility (down 28.07%), speculation degree of 2.41, trend degree of 0.03, and capital outflow of 41.21 [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper closed at 101,010.00, down 0.04% weekly, with 15.19% volatility (down 60.65%), speculation degree of 0.57, trend degree of 0.17, and capital outflow of 5.65 [2]. - Nickel closed at 136,930.00, down 0.15% weekly, with 30.22% volatility (down 36.45%), speculation degree of 2.22, trend degree of - 0.15, and capital inflow of 1.87 [2]. - Aluminum closed at 24,960.00, up 0.99% weekly, with 21.73% volatility (down 41.66%), speculation degree of 2.01, trend degree of 0.05, and capital inflow of 8.07 [2]. - Tin closed at 374,110.00, down 4.97% weekly, with 78.61% volatility (down 9.46%), speculation degree of 7.33, trend degree of - 0.13, and capital outflow of 6.85 [2]. - Zinc closed at 24,140.00, down 0.49% weekly, with 13.67% volatility (down 43.53%), speculation degree of 1.41, trend degree of - 0.27, and capital outflow of 1.45 [2]. - Lead closed at 16,555.00, down 1.31% weekly, with 5.36% volatility (down 40.23%), speculation degree of 0.73, trend degree of - 0.29, and capital inflow of 5.82 [2]. Black Commodities - Iron ore closed at 811.50, up 5.12% weekly, with 16.04% volatility (up 3.94%), speculation degree of 0.67, trend degree of 0.20, and capital inflow of 6.64 [2]. - Coke closed at 1,737.50, up 2.48% weekly, with 28.93% volatility (up 0.66%), speculation degree of 0.69, trend degree of 0.13, and capital inflow of 0.67 [2]. - Coking coal closed at 1,178.00, up 4.90% weekly, with 35.14% volatility (up 7.43%), speculation degree of 2.48, trend degree of 0.20, and capital outflow of 2.23 [2]. - Rebar closed at 3,142.00, up 1.75% weekly, with 9.38% volatility (up 0.44%), speculation degree of 0.54, trend degree of 0.13, and capital inflow of 0.16 [2]. - Hot - rolled coil closed at 3,295.00, up 2.01% weekly, with 9.02% volatility (up 12.14%), speculation degree of 0.36, trend degree of 0.05, and capital outflow of 0.44 [2]. - Ferrosilicon closed at 5,888.00, up 0.34% weekly, with 14.69% volatility (down 6.44%), speculation degree of 0.98, trend degree of - 0.12, and capital outflow of 1.54 [2]. - Silicomanganese closed at 6,176.00, up 0.75% weekly, with 14.15% volatility (down 2.81%), speculation degree of 0.77, trend degree of 0.05, and capital outflow of 3.74 [2]. - Stainless steel closed at 14,190.00, down 0.14% weekly, with 15.44% volatility (down 43.06%), speculation degree of 1.60, trend degree of - 0.15, and capital outflow of 1.58 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil closed at 750.80, up 12.94% weekly, with 101.14% volatility (up 52.43%), speculation degree of 6.33, trend degree of 0.12, and capital inflow of 144.51 [2]. - Fuel oil closed at 4,730.00, up 19.08% weekly, with 77.51% volatility (up 24.66%), speculation degree of 6.75, trend degree of 0.06, and capital inflow of 25.08 [2]. - LU closed at 5,582.00, up 24.38% weekly, with 74.10% volatility (up 30.06%), speculation degree of 2.80, trend degree of - 0.02, and capital inflow of 9.40 [2]. - LPG closed at 5,734.00, up 8.17% weekly, with 51.82% volatility (up 16.23%), speculation degree of 3.33, trend degree of - 0.05, and capital inflow of 8.43 [2]. - Asphalt closed at 4,089.00, up 8.78% weekly, with 51.47% volatility (up 60.36%), speculation degree of 3.52, trend degree of 0.35, and capital inflow of 8.04 [2]. - PVC closed at 5,724.00, up 8.49% weekly, with 38.78% volatility (up 35.98%), speculation degree of 2.91, trend degree of 0.13, and capital inflow of 24.65 [2]. - Polyethylene closed at 8,416.00, up 9.43% weekly, with 36.92% volatility (up 9.36%), speculation degree of 3.15, trend degree of - 0.01, and capital inflow of 21.91 [2]. - Polypropylene closed at 8,603.00, up 10.34% weekly, with 38.69% volatility (up 10.95%), speculation degree of 2.87, trend degree of - 0.02, and capital inflow of 26.69 [2]. - Styrene closed at 10,000.00, up 12.25% weekly, with 42.87% volatility (up 4.29%), speculation degree of 6.69, trend degree of - 0.20, and capital inflow of 20.40 [2]. - PTA closed at 6,934.00, up 14.23% weekly, with 40.68% volatility (up 25.17%), speculation degree of 2.23, trend degree of 0.10, and capital inflow of 75.42 [2]. - Ethylene glycol closed at 4,729.00, up 8.04% weekly, with 46.07% volatility (up 33.15%), speculation degree of 2.83, trend degree of 0.02, and capital inflow of 23.30 [2]. - Short - fiber closed at 8,382.00, up 11.64% weekly, with 32.94% volatility (up 21.73%), speculation degree of 3.83, trend degree of 0.17, and capital inflow of 9.71 [2]. - Methanol closed at 2,805.00, up 8.47% weekly, with 71.00% volatility (up 36.15%), speculation degree of 4.23, trend degree of 0.12, and capital inflow of 2.73 [2]. - Urea closed at 1,889.00, up 3.22% weekly, with 22.03% volatility (up 41.66%), speculation degree of 1.72, trend degree of 0.00, and capital inflow of 3.70 [2]. - Glass closed at 1,135.00, up 4.42% weekly, with 26.38% volatility (down 2.68%), speculation degree of 1.69, trend degree of 0.15, and capital inflow of 3.52 [2]. - Soda ash closed at 1,277.00, up 2.82% weekly, with 25.23% volatility (up 13.69%), speculation degree of 1.69, trend degree of 0.08, and capital inflow of 12.35 [2]. - Natural rubber closed at 16,765.00, down 0.42% weekly, with 23.38% volatility (down 9.46%), speculation degree of 2.92, trend degree of - 0.07, and capital outflow of 1.60 [2]. Agricultural Products - Cotton closed at 15,415.00, up 0.78% weekly, with 15.19% volatility (down 5.90%), speculation degree of 0.90, trend degree of 0.00, and capital outflow of 5.83 [2]. - Sugar closed at 5,447.00, up 1.42% weekly, with 8.10% volatility (down 4.85%), speculation degree of 1.04, trend degree of - 0.03, and capital inflow of 0.91 [2]. - Corn closed at 2,386.00, down 0.29% weekly, with 7.78% volatility (up 1.88%), speculation degree of 0.64, trend degree of 0.00, and capital outflow of 5.39 [2]. - Apple closed at 9,998.00, down 3.08% weekly, with 27.46% volatility (up 1.55%), speculation degree of 1.17, trend degree of - 0.08, and capital outflow of 8.13 [2]. - Starch closed at 2,729.00, up 0.66% weekly, with 7.53% volatility (down 7.38%), speculation degree of 0.54, trend degree of - 0.01, and capital outflow of 0.98 [2]. - Soybean No.1 closed at 4,973.00, up 6.69% weekly, with 21.23% volatility (up 29.99%), speculation degree of 1.10, trend degree of 0.34, and capital outflow of 0.98 [2]. - Soybean No.2 closed at 3,923.00, up 6.55% weekly, with 17.88% volatility (up 38.31%), speculation degree of 1.13, trend degree of 0.15, and capital inflow of 1.41 [2]. - Soybean meal closed at 3,128.00, up 7.31% weekly, with 19.25% volatility (up 36.16%), speculation degree of 1.24, trend degree of 0.20, and capital inflow of 4.05 [2]. - Soybean oil closed at 8,690.00, up 3.30% weekly, with 16.90% volatility (up 35.17%), speculation degree of 0.82, trend degree of 0.03, and capital inflow of 47.10 [2]. - Palm oil closed at 9,768.00, up 5.97% weekly, with 26.27% volatility (up 45.78%), speculation degree of 2.05, trend degree of 0.19, and capital inflow of 28.22 [2]. - Rapeseed meal closed at 2,591.00, up 9.14% weekly, with 22.02% volatility (up 43.89%), speculation degree of 1.60, trend degree of 0.26, and capital outflow of 9.00 [2]. - Rapeseed oil closed at 9,821.00, up 1.60% weekly, with 18.59% volatility (up 8.31%), speculation degree of 1.08, trend degree of - 0.03, and capital inflow of 3.14 [2]. - Pulp closed at 5,272.00, down 0.94% weekly, with 11.22% volatility (down 16.22%), speculation degree of 1.32, trend degree of - 0.06, and capital inflow of 1.63 [2]. Livestock Products - Eggs closed at 3,433.00, up 1.30% weekly, with 13.44% volatility (down 11.67%), speculation degree of 0.99, trend degree of 0.04, and capital outflow of 1.29 [2]. - Live hogs closed at 11,150.00, down 0.09% weekly, with 14.17% volatility (down 6.15%), speculation degree of 0.50, trend degree of - 0.04, and capital inflow of 11.21 [2]. Financial Futures - IC closed at 8,213.80, down 1.31% weekly, with 23.46% volatility (down 35.06%), speculation degree of 0.78, trend degree of - 0.13, and capital outflow of 8.42 [3]. - IF closed at 4,658.00, up 0.26% weekly, with 15.26% volatility (down 20.38%), speculation degree of 0.57, trend degree of 0.22, and capital inflow of 1.17 [3]. - IM closed at 8,187.00, down 0.30% weekly, with 22.56% volatility (down 29.42%), speculation degree of 0.83, trend degree of 0.03, and capital inflow of 20.71 [3]. - IH closed at 2,957.00, down 1.10% weekly, with 13.38% volatility (down 22.32%), speculation degree of 0.53, trend degree of 0.03, and capital outflow of 9.05 [3]. - T closed at 108.22, down 0.29% weekly, with 1.23% volatility (up 23.24%), speculation degree of 0.29, trend degree of - 0

Group 1: Market Development and Product Innovation - The company has prioritized "emerging market development" as a key annual initiative, focusing on accelerating new product research and development, including high-performance products like alloy resistors and multi-layer ceramic capacitors (MLCC) [2][3] - The company has a comprehensive industry layout, integrating materials, products, and equipment, enabling it to respond promptly to customer needs and provide one-stop procurement services for electronic components [3] Group 2: Product Applications and Features - New products are designed to meet higher demands in emerging application areas, including IM and AE series MLCCs for high stability and efficiency in medium to high voltage environments, and MF and MI series alloy resistors for high power and precision applications [3] - The TLVR inductors utilize advanced materials and hot-pressing technology, offering high current capacity, compact size, and low DC resistance to meet high power density requirements [3] Group 3: Pricing and Capacity Utilization - The company adjusted prices for certain products, such as chip resistors and inductors, in response to rising raw material costs, indicating a competitive market environment [3] - The current capacity utilization rate for main products remains high, with ongoing plans to expand production capacity for MLCCs, chip resistors, and inductors to support high-end transformation [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 3 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 风险因素扰动下止盈意愿上升 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡下跌。A 股全天成交 2.39 万亿元，上日成交 3.16 万亿元，股市整体表 现低迷，成交明显减量。地缘冲突持续升级，引发投资者对宏观走弱风险的担忧，资 ...