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IF、IH、IM空单主力席位减持力度更大
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-08-27 02:30
8月26日,A股市场经过前期的连续上行,涨势有所放缓,上证指数全天窄幅震荡,最终收报3868.38 点。同期,期指四个品种走势分化,其中IF、IH及IM主力合约均收跌,跌幅分别为0.21%、0.43%和 0.1%,IC主力合约则上涨0.18%。 当日,期指持仓量有所回落,四个品种共计减仓62657手,总持仓量降至991457手。各品种持仓量不同 程度回落。其中,IF减仓16548手,持仓量降至273056手;IH减仓11800手,持仓量降至108386手;IC减 仓15056手,持仓量降至229499手;IM减仓19253手,持仓量降至380516手。 总体来说,部分资金止盈离场,期指总持仓量及各品种主力席位持仓量均有所回落。期指前期已经累积 了较大涨幅,短线或在当前点位展开整理。(作者单位:永安期货) (文章来源:期货日报) 各品种前20(下称主力)席位的持仓量同步回落。IF多单主力席位减仓12813手,空单主力席位减仓 13581手,净空持仓量降至33440手;IH多单主力席位减仓9153手,空单主力席位减仓9271手,净空持 仓量降至18014手;IC多单主力席位减仓12832手,空单主力席位减仓123 ...
宝城期货股指期货早报-20250822
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:16
Report Overview - The report is the stock index futures morning report of Baocheng Futures on August 22, 2025, covering the financial futures stock index sector [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The overall view of the financial futures stock index sector is that the short - term is expected to be volatile and strong, and the medium - term is expected to rise. For example, for IH2509, the short - term is volatile, the medium - term is rising, the intraday is volatile and strong, and the overall view is rising; for IF, IH, IC, IM, the intraday view is volatile and strong, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is rising [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - For IH2509, the short - term is "volatile", the medium - term is "rising", the intraday is "volatile and strong", and the overall view is "rising". The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and sorted. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.4603 trillion yuan, a 11.9 - billion - yuan increase from the previous day. The trading volume in the stock market is still over 2 trillion yuan, indicating that investors' sentiment remains positive. However, due to the large gains of some stocks, there is a need for profit - taking of profitable funds and technical consolidation. Currently, positive expectations strongly support the stock index. Anti - involution policies and consumption - promotion policies promote the moderate recovery of the price index from both supply and demand sides and the repair of corporate profits. The capital side is relatively loose, and incremental funds continuously flowing into the stock market drive the repair of the stock index valuation. Overall, it is expected that the stock index will operate in a volatile and strong manner in the short term [5]
宝城期货股指期货早报-20250819
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:36
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Report's Core View - The overall view on stock index futures is bullish. For the IH2509 contract, the short - term view is consolidation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is consolidation with a slight upward bias, with an overall upward outlook due to strong support from positive policy expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is consolidation with a slight upward bias, and the medium - term view is upward. The stock index is expected to be mainly consolidation with a slight upward bias in the short term as the risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 - For the IH2509 contract, short - term: consolidation; medium - term: upward; intraday: consolidation with a slight upward bias; overall view: upward. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 - Yesterday, all stock indexes showed a trend of rising and then falling, closing higher after a volatile day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2809.1 billion yuan, an increase of 536.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The trading volume has been above 2 trillion yuan for many days, and the margin trading balance has also risen above 2 trillion yuan, indicating optimistic market sentiment and a continuous increase in investors' risk appetite [5]. - From the policy perspective, positive policy expectations strongly support the stock index. Anti - involution and consumption - promotion policies promote a moderate recovery of the price index from both supply and demand sides, repair corporate profits, and drive a positive cycle in the "residential consumption - corporate profit - employee salary" chain, increasing the expectation of an improving macro - economic fundamentals [5]. - From the industry perspective, the booming development of AI technology strengthens the logic of "domestic substitution" in technology. The phased easing of tariff issues is beneficial to enhancing the competitiveness of China's industrial chain, promoting scientific and technological innovation and technological progress [5]. - From the capital perspective, patient capital such as social security and insurance funds continues to enter the market, margin trading funds enter the market more quickly, and the non - bank deposit data in July increased significantly year - on - year, indicating a loose capital situation and continuous capital inflow into the stock market [5].
宝城期货股指期货早报-20250814
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 01:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of IH2509 is "shock", the medium - term view is "rise", the intraday view is "shock - biased upward", and the overall view is "rise" with policy - side favorable expectations providing strong support [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "shock - biased upward", the medium - term view is "rise", and the reference view is "rise". The core logic is that the stock market showed a volume - increasing rise, indicating a continuous increase in risk preference and positive investor expectations. Policy - side loan - discount policies are expected to boost consumption and improve the macro - economic outlook. However, there may be short - term technical consolidation due to profit - taking needs. Overall, the stock index is expected to be shock - biased upward in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, short - term: shock; medium - term: rise; intraday: shock - biased upward; overall view: rise; core logic: policy - side favorable expectations [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, all stock indices rose with obvious increases in IM and IC. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2175.2 billion yuan, an increase of 270 billion yuan from the previous day. The volume - increasing rise shows a continuous increase in risk preference and positive investor expectations [5]. - The central bank and the Ministry of Finance launched two loan - discount policies to boost consumption, which is expected to promote the positive cycle of "residents' consumption - corporate profits - employees' salaries" and improve the macro - economic outlook [5]. - Due to continuous rise, there may be short - term technical consolidation because of profit - taking needs. In the short term, domestic policy - side favorable expectations are strong, external risk factors are temporarily alleviated, and the stock index is expected to be shock - biased upward [5].
宏观金融数据日报-20250804
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 08:30
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the upward speed of the stock index may slow down after the phased realization of macro - positive factors, and market fluctuations and adjustments should be watched out for. In the long run, the futures index market this year is mainly driven by valuation expansion, and the valuation factor is expected to continue to play a role. It is advisable to go long on the stock index opportunistically this week [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Interest Rate and Bond Market - The closing prices and changes of various interest rate varieties are as follows: DRO01 closed at 1.31, down 8.18bp; DR007 at 1.42, down 13.00bp; GC001 at 1.29, up 26.00bp; GC007 at 1.46, up 3.00bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.56, down 0.30bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.37, down 0.73bp; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.57, down 0.23bp; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.71, up 0.60bp; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.23, down 14.00bp [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 1.6563 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases due, resulting in a net investment of 6.9 billion yuan. This week, 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire, with 495.8 billion, 449.2 billion, 309 billion, 283.2 billion, and 126 billion yuan expiring from Monday to Friday respectively [4][5] Stock Index Market - Stock index closing prices and changes compared to the previous day: CSI 300 closed at 4055, down 0.51%; SSE 50 at 2754, down 0.79%; CSI 500 at 6213, down 0.21%; CSI 1000 at 6670, up 0.14%. For index futures, IF当月 closed at 4043, down 0.7%; IH当月 at 2754, down 0.8%; IC当月 at 6166, down 0.4%; IM当月 at 6617, up 0.1% [6] - Last week, CSI 300 fell 1.75% to 4054.9; SSE 50 fell 1.48% to 2754.1; CSI 500 fell 1.37% to 6213.2; CSI 1000 fell 0.54% to 6670.5. In the Shenwan primary industry index, last week, the pharmaceutical and biological (2.9%), communication (2.5%), media (1.1%), electronics (0.3%), and social services (0.1%) sectors led the gains, while most sectors declined, with non - ferrous metals (-4.6%), real estate (-3.4%), transportation (-3.2%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-3%), and power equipment (-2.6%) leading the losses [6] - The IF, IH, IC, and IM index futures have different levels of premium and discount for different contracts. For example, IF's premium and discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 9.10%, 0.00%, 0.01%, and 3.41% respectively [8]
基差方向周度预测-20250801
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 12:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, both internal and external environments changed. Internally, the "anti - involution" theme cooled, and the Politburo meeting emphasized policy implementation. Upstream resources retreated, with coal and non - ferrous metals leading the decline. Externally, the third round of China - US trade talks extended tariffs, the US dollar index rose, and the domestic risk appetite declined slightly. The Fed remained unchanged but had increasing differences on interest rate cuts. Financing funds flowed in rapidly but sentiment weakened later. Indexes retreated, with large - cap stocks falling more. IF, IC, and IM basis widened slightly, while IH was flat. The term structure adjusted in the opposite direction during the callback [2] 3. Summary by Related Content This Week's Review - Internal changes: The "anti - involution" theme cooled, the Politburo meeting emphasized policy implementation, and upstream resources retreated [2] - External changes: The third round of China - US trade talks extended tariffs, the US dollar index rose, and the domestic risk appetite declined slightly. The Fed had increasing differences on interest rate cuts [2] - Market performance: Financing funds flowed in rapidly but sentiment weakened later. Indexes retreated, with large - cap stocks falling more. IF, IC, and IM basis widened slightly, while IH was flat. The term structure adjusted in the opposite direction during the callback [2] This Week's Prediction Conclusion - The model predicts that next week, the basis of IH and IM will weaken, while the basis of IF and IC will strengthen [3] Recent Prediction Conclusion - There are graphical data on the real and predicted basis changes of IH, IF, IC, and IM, but specific conclusions are not explicitly summarized from the graphical content [4][5]
宝城期货股指期货早报-20250731
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:05
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of IH2509 is volatile, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is strongly volatile, and the overall view is rising, supported by positive policy expectations [1] - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is strongly volatile, the medium - term view is rising, and the overall view is rising. The stock index is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, short - term: volatile; medium - term: rising; intraday: strongly volatile; view reference: rising; core logic: positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, each stock index was in a narrow - range volatile consolidation. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1871 billion yuan, an increase of 41.7 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - The Politburo meeting emphasized the implementation of existing policies, including more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, focusing on boosting consumption and supporting technological innovation. It also aimed to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market [5] - The Politburo meeting had few incremental benefits. Since late June, some stocks have risen significantly, and some profit - taking funds may seek to take profits, weakening the short - term upward driving force of the stock index [5] - New policy incremental benefits are expected to wait for the policy guidance of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October. Currently, the stock market trading volume is at a relatively high level, and market risk appetite has recovered, so the stock index is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [5]
宝城期货股指期货早报-20250728
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 01:37
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of IF, IH, IC, IM is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is rising. The short - term of IH2509 is oscillating, the medium - term is rising, the intraday is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is rising [1][5] - The rebound of the stock index is mainly driven by positive policy expectations, and the market sentiment is generally optimistic. The stock index needs a short - term oscillating consolidation period, and in the short term, it is mainly oscillating strongly [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, in the short - term (within a week), it is oscillating; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it is rising; intraday, it is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is rising. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Quotes Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, IM is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is rising. Last Friday, each stock index mainly oscillated narrowly. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1815.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.4 billion yuan from the previous day. Some stocks have risen significantly since late June, so some profit - taking funds need to stop profits. The rebound of the stock index is driven by positive policy expectations. The domestic policy has boosted the price and profit repair expectations of related industries, and the official start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project has driven the expectation of policy - based support. The current trading volume in the stock market is high, indicating high risk preference of investors [5]
周度期货价量总览-20250725
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 13:38
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the weekly price - volume data of various futures, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, forest products, livestock products, and financial futures, as well as the year - to - date price changes and weekly capital flow and position changes of these futures [2][4][11] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Weekly Futures Price - Volume Overview Precious Metals - Gold closed at 777.32 with a weekly increase of 12.11%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 8.88%, speculation degree of 1.15, trend degree of 0.14, and capital change of 29.31 [2] - Silver closed at 9,392.00 with a weekly increase of 14.74%, volatility change of 6.39%, speculation degree of 2.00, trend degree of 0.18, and capital change of - 21.41 [2] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper closed at 79,250.00 with a weekly increase of 11.02%, volatility change of 8.11%, speculation degree of 0.48, trend degree of 0.00, and capital change of 7.27 [2] - Nickel closed at 124,360.00 with a weekly increase of 13.55%, volatility change of - 2.59%, speculation degree of 2.20, trend degree of 0.29, and capital change of 8.73 [2] - Aluminum closed at 20,760.00 with a weekly increase of 9.94%, volatility change of 19.17%, speculation degree of 0.51, trend degree of 0.12, and capital change of 3.46 [2] - Tin closed at 271,630.00 with a weekly increase of 15.43%, volatility change of 6.80%, speculation degree of 4.91, trend degree of 0.23, and capital change of 7.86 [2] - Zinc closed at 22,885.00 with a weekly increase of 14.07%, volatility change of 28.29%, speculation degree of 1.36, trend degree of 0.34, and capital change of 2.15 [2] - Lead closed at 16,955.00 with a weekly increase of 7.59%, volatility change of - 11.79%, speculation degree of 0.85, trend degree of 0.05, and capital change of - 0.08 [2] - Industrial silicon closed at 9,725.00 with a weekly increase of 42.16%, volatility change of 17.35%, speculation degree of 3.43, trend degree of 0.24, and capital change of 1.14 [2] Black Metals - Rebar closed at 3,356.00 with a weekly increase of 16.64%, volatility change of 46.68%, speculation degree of 1.43, trend degree of 0.34, and capital change of 11.10 [2] - Iron ore closed at 802.50 with a weekly increase of 20.75%, volatility change of 25.20%, speculation degree of 0.88, trend degree of - 0.05, and capital change of - 18.35 [2] - Coke closed at 1,763.00 with a weekly increase of 33.70%, volatility change of 29.75%, speculation degree of 1.67, trend degree of 0.49, and capital change of 5.61 [2] - Coking coal closed at 1,259.00 with a weekly increase of 50.73%, volatility change of 54.67%, speculation degree of 4.70, trend degree of 0.88, and capital change of 56.65 [2] - Hot - rolled coil closed at 3,507.00 with a weekly increase of 16.27%, volatility change of 44.49%, speculation degree of 0.71, trend degree of 0.38, and capital change of 10.40 [2] - Ferrosilicon closed at 6,166.00 with a weekly increase of 36.16%, volatility change of 64.42%, speculation degree of 1.93, trend degree of 0.28, and capital change of 4.91 [2] - Silicomanganese closed at 6,414.00 with a weekly increase of 30.90%, volatility change of 119.78%, speculation degree of 1.36, trend degree of 0.24, and capital change of 9.12 [2] - Stainless steel closed at 13,030.00 with a weekly increase of 9.23%, volatility change of 0.58%, speculation degree of 1.66, trend degree of 0.27, and capital change of 3.73 [2] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil closed at 512.90 with a weekly decrease of 0.56%, volatility change of - 49.31%, speculation degree of 3.68, trend degree of - 0.04, and capital change of 0.85 [2] - Fuel oil closed at 2,915.00 with a weekly increase of 0.10%, volatility change of - 51.42%, speculation degree of 2.64, trend degree of 0.10, and capital change of 1.58 [2] - LU closed at 3,613.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.61%, volatility change of - 57.51%, speculation degree of 1.48, trend degree of - 0.07, and capital change of - 1.12 [2] - LPG closed at 4,047.00 with a weekly increase of 1.43%, volatility change of - 38.51%, speculation degree of 1.36, trend degree of 0.19, and capital change of 2.05 [2] - Asphalt closed at 3,615.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.09%, volatility change of - 55.52%, speculation degree of 0.98, trend degree of - 0.18, and capital change of - 2.77 [2] - PVC closed at 5,373.00 with a weekly increase of 8.83%, volatility change of 61.62%, speculation degree of 2.08, trend degree of 0.47, and capital change of 1.77 [2] - Polyethylene closed at 7,456.00 with a weekly increase of 3.33%, volatility change of - 5.38%, speculation degree of 0.91, trend degree of 0.45, and capital change of - 0.45 [2] - Polypropylene closed at 7,221.00 with a weekly increase of 2.97%, volatility change of - 8.60%, speculation degree of 0.94, trend degree of 0.47, and capital change of 0.73 [2] - Styrene closed at 7,587.00 with a weekly increase of 4.52%, volatility change of - 21.67%, speculation degree of 1.37, trend degree of 0.44, and capital change of - 0.39 [2] - PTA closed at 4,936.00 with a weekly increase of 4.05%, volatility change of - 38.50%, speculation degree of 1.01, trend degree of 0.31, and capital change of 4.10 [2] - Ethylene glycol closed at 4,545.00 with a weekly increase of 3.86%, volatility change of - 39.08%, speculation degree of 0.87, trend degree of 0.36, and capital change of 2.83 [2] - Short - fiber closed at 6,606.00 with a weekly increase of 3.67%, volatility change of - 21.55%, speculation degree of 1.31, trend degree of 0.43, and capital change of 0.10 [2] - Methanol closed at 2,519.00 with a weekly increase of 6.51%, volatility change of - 9.47%, speculation degree of 1.54, trend degree of 0.46, and capital change of 3.33 [2] - Urea closed at 1,803.00 with a weekly increase of 3.32%, volatility change of 32.12%, speculation degree of 1.49, trend degree of 0.16, and capital change of 0.44 [2] - Glass closed at 1,362.00 with a weekly increase of 25.99%, volatility change of 60.25%, speculation degree of 3.88, trend degree of 0.58, and capital change of - 4.10 [2] - Soda ash closed at 1,440.00 with a weekly increase of 18.42%, volatility change of 74.17%, speculation degree of 3.49, trend degree of 0.48, and capital change of - 17.51 [2] - Natural rubber closed at 15,585.00 with a weekly increase of 5.23%, volatility change of - 8.64%, speculation degree of 3.10, trend degree of 0.36, and capital change of 1.38 [2] Agricultural Products - Cotton closed at 14,170.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.70%, volatility change of 0.35%, speculation degree of 0.46, trend degree of - 0.23, and capital change of - 2.59 [2] - Sugar closed at 5,876.00 with a weekly increase of 0.86%, volatility change of - 12.50%, speculation degree of 0.57, trend degree of 0.19, and capital change of 3.48 [2] - Corn closed at 2,311.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.13%, volatility change of - 6.18%, speculation degree of 0.54, trend degree of - 0.04, and capital change of - 5.61 [2] - Apple closed at 8,005.00 with a weekly increase of 1.55%, volatility change of - 19.35%, speculation degree of 0.46, trend degree of 0.26, and capital change of - 0.24 [2] - Starch closed at 2,665.00 with a weekly increase of 0.26%, volatility change of - 4.75%, speculation degree of 0.49, trend degree of - 0.04, and capital change of - 1.69 [2] - Soybean No.1 closed at 4,224.00 with a weekly increase of 0.84%, volatility change of - 15.66%, speculation degree of 0.78, trend degree of 0.23, and capital change of 1.29 [2] - Soybean No.2 closed at 3,661.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.74%, volatility change of - 11.64%, speculation degree of 1.21, trend degree of - 0.17, and capital change of 0.06 [2] - Soybean meal closed at 3,021.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.15%, volatility change of - 5.58%, speculation degree of 0.69, trend degree of 0.03, and capital change of - 7.69 [2] - Soybean oil closed at 8,144.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.20%, volatility change of - 19.62%, speculation degree of 0.67, trend degree of - 0.07, and capital change of - 1.61 [2] - Palm oil closed at 8,936.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.31%, volatility change of - 1.15%, speculation degree of 1.41, trend degree of 0.04, and capital change of - 14.42 [2] - Rapeseed meal closed at 2,675.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.73%, volatility change of - 7.60%, speculation degree of 0.73, trend degree of - 0.08, and capital change of - 2.43 [2] - Rapeseed oil closed at 9,457.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.35%, volatility change of - 9.93%, speculation degree of 1.26, trend degree of - 0.21, and capital change of - 4.46 [2] Forest Products - Pulp closed at 5,520.00 with a weekly increase of 4.31%, volatility change of - 45.72%, speculation degree of 2.11, trend degree of 0.49, and capital change of 3.31 [2] Livestock Products - Live pigs closed at 14,385.00 with a weekly increase of 1.77%, volatility change of 15.99%, speculation degree of 1.10, trend degree of 0.15, and capital change of 14.31 [2] Financial Futures - IC closed at 6,216.00 with a weekly increase of 3.59%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 10.92%, volatility change of - 7.44%, speculation degree of 0.43, trend degree of 0.36, and capital change of 50.63 [4] - IF closed at 4,116.00 with a weekly increase of 1.84%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 8.07%, volatility change of - 23.25%, speculation degree of 0.39, trend degree of 0.24, and capital change of 34.02 [4] - IM closed at 6,605.80 with a weekly increase of 3.00%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 12.19%, volatility change of - 16.14%, speculation degree of 0.65, trend degree of 0.31, and capital change of 72.21 [4] - IH closed at 2,796.80 with a weekly increase of 1.08%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 7.06%, volatility change of - 27.82%, speculation degree of 0.55, trend degree of 0.10, and capital change of 9.98 [4] - T closed at 108.18 with a weekly decrease of 0.56%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 1.62%, volatility change of 16.55%, speculation degree of 0.47, trend degree of - 0.24, and capital change of 2.37 [4] - TS closed at 102.31 with a weekly decrease of 0.12%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 0.42%, volatility change of 12.45%, speculation degree of 0.41, trend degree of - 0.16, and capital change of - 1.57 [4] - TF closed at 105.57 with a weekly decrease of 0.40%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 1.13%, volatility change of 10.65%, speculation degree of 0.48, trend degree of - 0.32, and capital change of 0.07 [4] Year - to - Date Price Changes - Gold has a year - to - date increase of 25.86%, silver 25.73%, and other varieties have different year - to - date price changes, such as红枣 (13.41%), apple (13.06%), etc [11] Weekly Capital Flow and Position Changes - The capital attention of coking coal, gold, live pigs, rebar, and hot - rolled coil has increased [13] - The positions of crude oil
宝城期货股指期货早报-20250718
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 01:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index is range - bound, with a mid - term view of upward movement. The main logic for the stock index rebound is the expectation of policy benefits in the second half of the year, strong liquidity support, and the easing of external risks. However, the upward momentum of the previous high - performing sectors has weakened, and without incremental policies in the short term, the stock index may enter a consolidation phase. Attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the important meeting in July [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the mid - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillatory and bullish, and the mid - term view is upward, with a reference view of range - bound. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1560.2 billion yuan, an increase of 98.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The main logic for the stock index rebound is the expectation of policy support in the second half of the year due to the insufficient effective domestic demand in the first half. The central bank's net injection of liquidity and the easing of external risks also support the market. However, the upward momentum of the previous high - performing sectors has weakened, and without incremental policies in the short term, the stock index may enter a consolidation phase [4].