Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - On Monday, the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, oscillating rebound, and a slight gain. The price closed at 15,315 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 70 yuan/ton. After the weakening of macro - drivers, the domestic rubber market returned to a market dominated by supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - On Monday, the methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of decreasing volume and positions, weak decline, and a significant drop. The price closed at 2,029 yuan/ton, down 2.50%. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 116 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol futures were dominated by weak supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - On Monday, the crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of decreasing volume, increasing positions, rising then falling, and a slight gain. The price closed at 459.2 yuan/barrel, up 0.07%. There were differences between long and short positions. With supply surplus competing against seasonal demand recovery and geopolitical factors interfering, oil prices might fluctuate widely [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 449,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,800 tons (0.40%). The bonded area inventory was 67,800 tons, a decrease of 0.74%, and the general trade inventory was 381,700 tons, an increase of 0.60%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 0.13 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.75 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.96 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a week - on - week increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points. It was expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises would further decline next week [8]. - In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative automobile production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4%. The automobile market continued its good development trend [9]. - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales were as high as 916,000 vehicles, and it was certain that the annual sales would exceed one million, and might even reach 1.1 million [9]. Methanol - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%, and a year - on - year increase of 3.67%. The average weekly methanol production was 1.9761 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,600 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 112,000 tons [10]. - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.23%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.83%. The acetic acid operating rate was 63.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.81%. The MTBE operating rate was 58.91%, a week - on - week increase of 2.41%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.82%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.12 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 6.54%. The futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 237 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 109 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 457 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.279 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 246,500 tons. As of the week of November 13, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 369,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,400 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 21,200 tons [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of November 7, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 414, unchanged from the previous week and a decrease of 65 from the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.862 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 211,000 barrels/day and a year - on - year increase of 462,000 barrels/day, at a historical high [11]. - As of the week of November 7, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 427.6 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 6.413 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 2.166 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.519 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 346,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 410.4 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 798,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 89.4%, a week - on - week increase of 3.4 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 3.7 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.0 percentage points [12]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts (15.65%) from the August average. As of November 11, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 164,578 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 11,817 contracts and a significant increase of 45,167 contracts (37.82%) from the October average [12]. 2. Spot Price Table - The spot price of Shanghai rubber was 14,800 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main contract was 15,315 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 515 yuan/ton [13]. - The spot price of methanol was 2,040 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main contract was 2,029 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 26 yuan/ton [13]. - The spot price of crude oil was 426.0 yuan/barrel, the futures price of the main contract was 459.2 yuan/barrel, and the basis was - 33.2 yuan/barrel [13]. 3. Relevant Charts - Rubber - related charts include rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [14][15][17] - Methanol - related charts include methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [27][29][31] - Crude oil - related charts include crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [39][41][44]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the diverse opportunities and risks in the futures market, emphasizing the differentiation between bullish and bearish trends across various sectors, particularly in stock indices and certain commodities like iron ore and sugar [43]. Group 1: Stock Index Futures - Key bullish varieties include the CSI 500 futures (IC) and CSI 1000 futures (IM), indicating a "Good Curve Long" signal, while the CSI 300 futures (IF) show a "Curve Long" signal and the SSE 50 futures (IH) are "Maybe Curve Long," suggesting an overall bullish sentiment [2]. - The market is currently in a "Consolidation" phase, indicating a period of adjustment [3]. - The volatility of stock index futures is relatively low, with a Vol/Roll ratio between 1.4 and 5.0, and a moderate rolling Sharpe ratio of approximately 0.2 to 0.7, indicating active trading with manageable volatility [4]. - High positive correlation exists among IH, IF, IC, and IM, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.68 to 0.94, reflecting strong interconnectivity within the sector [5]. - Investment opportunities lie in bullish positions for IC and IM due to strong curve structures and high annualized rolling returns (IC at 7.35%, IM at 10.69%), while IF and IH serve as auxiliary bullish positions suitable for low-cost accumulation during consolidation [6]. - The core logic suggests that small-cap stocks are relatively strong, benefiting from structural policy support and growth expectations, although the overall market lacks trend momentum and requires a breakout signal [8]. Group 2: Government Bond Futures - No clear curve signals are present for 2-year (TS), 5-year (TF), 10-year (T), and 30-year (TL) government bond futures, with all market states classified as "Consolidation" [9]. - Annualized rolling returns are negative (TS -0.26%, TF -0.26%, T -0.02%, TL 0.54%), indicating yield pressure [9]. - The volatility is low, with a Vol/Roll ratio between 0.0004 and 0.0027, and a varied rolling Sharpe ratio (TS at 0.43, T at 0.01), reflecting subdued trading activity and weak returns [10]. - Given the lack of clear direction, it is advised to remain observant or engage in light arbitrage, such as utilizing term spread changes [11]. - The core logic indicates that economic recovery and inflation expectations suppress the bond market, while safe-haven demand provides support, leading to a continued oscillating pattern [13]. Group 3: Precious Metals - Both gold (AU) and silver (AG) are classified as "Maybe Curve Short," but the market state is "Long," indicating a divergence between technical indicators and market conditions [14]. - Annualized rolling returns are negative (AU -2.24%, AG -2.11%), reflecting a bearish curve structure [14]. - The volatility is moderate, with a Vol/Roll ratio around 0.017 to 0.021, and low rolling Sharpe ratios (AU 0.08, AG 0.06), indicating active trading but poor returns [15]. - Cautious bearish positions are suggested, with attention to potential short-selling opportunities after rebounds or utilizing AU-AG price spread arbitrage [16]. - The core logic suggests that actual interest rates and dollar strength dominate prices, with a bearish technical outlook but support from safe-haven sentiment, leading to short-term weakness [18]. Group 4: Base Metals - Copper (CU) and international copper (BC) show no curve signals, with market states classified as "Long" or "Consolidation"; zinc (ZN) is "Maybe Curve Long," while nickel (NI) is "Short" [19]. - Annualized rolling returns vary (CU -0.28%, ZN 2.14%, NI -0.87%) [19]. - The volatility is moderate, with a Vol/Roll ratio between 0.005 and 0.011, and generally low rolling Sharpe ratios (CU 0.02, ZN 0.24), indicating stable trading [20]. - Zinc presents a clear long opportunity due to its bullish curve and positive returns, while nickel's clear bearish trend suggests short-selling at high points [21]. - The core logic indicates that supply-demand balance drives prices, with support from Chinese infrastructure and new energy demand for copper and zinc, but uncertainties arise from inventory levels and macro sentiment [23]. Group 5: Black Metals - Iron ore (I) is identified as "Good Curve Long," while coking coal (JM) is "Good Curve Short," and both coke (J) and rebar (RB) are "Maybe Curve Short" [24]. - Annualized rolling returns vary (I 6.49%, JM -5.35%) [25]. - The volatility is relatively high, with a Vol/Roll ratio around 0.010 to 0.024, and moderate rolling Sharpe ratios (I 0.39, JM 0.14), indicating active trading [26]. - Iron ore presents significant bullish opportunities, supported by positive returns and curve backing, while coking coal and coke show clear bearish trends suitable for short-selling [27]. - The core logic suggests that environmental policies and production cut expectations support iron ore, while weak terminal demand suppresses coking coal and coke, leading to notable sector differentiation [29]. Group 6: Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil (SC) and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) are "Curve Long," while fuel oil (FU) is "Good Curve Long" but in a "Short" market state, and asphalt (BU) is "Curve Long" but also "Short" [30]. - Annualized rolling returns vary (SC 3.31%, FU 6.76%, BU 3.09%) [31]. - The volatility is moderate, with a Vol/Roll ratio between 0.014 and 0.026, and varied rolling Sharpe ratios (SC 0.14, FU 0.29), indicating strong interconnectivity within the sector [32]. - High-value bullish positions are recommended for SC and LU, benefiting from curve support and positive returns, while FU and BU require cautious validation due to their bearish market states [33]. - The core logic indicates that global crude oil supply-demand tightness supports prices, but downstream demand differentiation and chemical products are influenced by both cost and demand factors [36]. Group 7: Agricultural Products - Sugar (SR) is "Curve Long," soybean (A) is "Maybe Curve Long," palm oil (P) is "Good Curve Long" but in a "Short" market state, while rapeseed oil (OI) and rapeseed meal (RM) are "Maybe Curve Short," and live hogs (LH) and eggs (JD) are "Curve Short" [37]. - Annualized rolling returns vary (SR 3.58%, P 7.81%, LH -3.64%) [37]. - The volatility ranges from low to moderate, with a Vol/Roll ratio between 0.004 and 0.015, and moderate rolling Sharpe ratios (SR 0.56, LH 0.16) [38]. - Clear bullish opportunities exist for sugar and soybean, benefiting from curve support and positive returns, while palm oil's bullish curve requires waiting for stronger signals, and live hogs and eggs show clear bearish trends suitable for short-selling [40]. - The core logic indicates that supply-side factors (planting area, yield) and demand-side factors (feed, consumption) dominate, with significant differentiation among varieties and a need to monitor seasonal factors and global trade flows [42].