Core Insights - Russian oil production is facing significant challenges due to war and sanctions, with traditional oil fields aging and shale oil development restricted. OPEC+ has increased production to capture market share, leading to a drop in oil prices from $80 to $60, with predictions of a potential decline to $50 [1][3][19]. Group 1: Impact of Sanctions and War - Sanctions have severed Western technology and equipment supplies, leaving Russia without advanced software, trained workers, and high-end drilling equipment, making it difficult to maintain or expand production [1][5][6]. - By 2030, Russian oil production is expected to decline by 20% to 50%, posing a threat to its economy and the funding of the war in Ukraine [1][19]. Group 2: Challenges in Oil Production - The aging of traditional production centers in Western Siberia and the Volga-Ural region has been exacerbated by sanctions, which hinder the ability to utilize Western technology for shale extraction [5][9]. - The lack of trained personnel due to the war has made it challenging for Russia to expand shale oil production, as many potential workers are engaged in military efforts [11][12]. Group 3: Technological Limitations - Russia lacks modern directional drilling tools and advanced hydraulic fracturing equipment, which are essential for efficient shale oil extraction [14][16]. - The absence of updated software for analyzing geological data has severely limited Russia's ability to locate and extract oil effectively [9][19]. Group 4: Global Oil Demand and Future Outlook - As global oil demand is projected to increase, with estimates suggesting it could reach 103.4 million barrels per day by 2030, Russia's declining oil production could lead to its diminished role in the global oil market [21]. - The potential reduction in Russian oil supply amidst rising global demand signals a need for countries reliant on Russian oil to adjust their supply structures [21].