12 Jan 2026 12:20:10 ET │ 14 pages Vi e w p o i n t | North America Internet Pre-4Q25 Quiet Period Check-In Key Takeaways CITI'S TAKE We caught up with IR teams across most of our coverage prior to 4Q25 quiet periods and offer our thoughts. Please see below for detailed takeaways for WIX, GDDY, TTD, CRTO, IAC, ZETA, EBAY, W, ETSY, KSPI, DUOL, MTCH, and BMBL. Takeaways From Calls with IR We caught up with the IR teams across the majority of our coverage prior to 4Q25 quiet periods. Some key thoughts below. W ...

eBay Live could be transformative for the 30-year-old e-commerce site.eBay (EBAY +1.74%) stock has rallied by more than 30% this year, with trading card games and collectibles driving growth. Those catalysts remain intact, positioning eBay stock to outperform the S&P 500 once again in 2026.However, the most exciting development may be eBay's pivot to livestreaming. The e-commerce platform has recently enabled live video, similar to YouTube and TikTok. eBay Live is more geared toward product reviews and tut ...

Core Thesis - eBay Inc. is undergoing a transformation from a legacy auction platform to a high-growth, AI-enhanced marketplace, with significant revenue growth and strategic initiatives in place [2][3][5] Financial Performance - eBay reported Q3 2025 revenue growth of 9% to $2.8 billion, with a 10% increase in GMV to $20 billion and a 25% growth in ad revenue to $525 million [2] - The company's trailing and forward P/E ratios are 18.34 and 13.97 respectively, indicating potential for re-rating compared to peers [1][5] Strategic Initiatives - Key drivers of growth include vertical expansion in Motors, Collectibles, Luxury, and refurbished tech, along with trust-enhancing programs like Secure Purchase and Authenticity Guarantee [3][4] - The integration of AI tools is improving conversion rates and basket sizes, while partnerships with OpenAI position eBay as a pioneer in autonomous e-commerce [3][5] Market Position and Growth Potential - eBay's Motors segment, bolstered by the Caramel acquisition, facilitates full end-to-end transactions, enhancing user engagement [4] - The company is trading at approximately 15x forward EPS, compared to peers at 20-25x, suggesting significant upside potential [5] - With over $2.5-3 billion in annual free cash flow, aggressive buybacks, and consistent dividends, eBay is positioned for stable growth [5] Future Outlook - Multiple catalysts such as AI adoption, ad growth, Motors expansion, and enhanced merchant tools could lead to a 30-50% upside from 2025 to 2028 [5]

Core Viewpoint - eBay's CEO highlights the potential benefits of the US-China tariff agreement for small businesses and eBay's marketplace, indicating a positive outlook for the upcoming holiday season despite a lowered guidance for growth [1][2][6]. Group 1: Business Performance - eBay reported a strong quarter with a Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth of 8% and a 13% year-on-year growth in the US business, which is considered a standout performance [4]. - The focus categories that eBay has invested in saw a year-on-year growth of 15%, indicating broad-based strength across various price points and categories [4][5]. - The company enters the holiday season with significant momentum, driven by strong consumer demand, particularly in the US market [5][7]. Group 2: Market Strategy - eBay's strategy focuses on providing value through used, pre-loved, and refurbished products, appealing to consumers looking for cost-effective options, especially in challenging economic conditions [8]. - The company is leveraging AI to enhance productivity and innovation, including features like visual intelligence for product listings and a new AI shopping assistant [11][12]. - eBay is investing in live commerce, which has shown substantial growth, with a reported run rate five times higher than the previous year [12][14]. Group 3: Financial Outlook - Despite a strong performance, eBay has provided guidance for a growth rate of 4% to 6% for the next year, which is characterized as strong mid-single-digit growth [6]. - The company maintains a disciplined approach to capital expenditures, spending about 4% to 5% of revenue, while efficiently utilizing its AI capabilities to drive technology advancements [15][16].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew 8% to $20.1 billion, with revenue increasing over 8% to $2.82 billion, and non-GAAP earnings per share rising over 14% year-over-year to $1.36 [5][27] - Non-GAAP operating income grew 9% year-over-year to $764 million, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 27.1% [27][32] - Free cash flow generated was $803 million, with cash and non-equity investments totaling $5.3 billion and gross debt at $6.8 billion [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Focus categories GMV growth accelerated to over 15%, with collectibles being the largest contributor, particularly in collectible card games and sports trading cards [5][7] - Motors Parts and Accessories (P&A) contributed significantly to GMV growth, with over 750 million live listings [9] - Fashion categories, including luxury and pre-loved apparel, also drove GMV growth, supported by partnerships like the one with Marks & Spencer [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. market GMV growth accelerated to nearly 13%, while international GMV grew nearly 4% on an FX-neutral basis [28][29] - The UK C2C initiative saw notable improvements, contributing to overall acceleration in UK volume growth [29][14] - The removal of the de minimis exemption for imports under $800 created challenges for cross-border trade into the U.S., impacting growth [22][28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing its marketplace through innovations like eBay Live and AI-driven tools to improve user experience [12][25] - The acquisition of TIES aims to strengthen the company's position in the circular economy and expand its presence in the Nordics [15] - Continued investment in AI technologies is expected to transform the shopping experience and improve seller interactions [16][25] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged macroeconomic challenges but expressed confidence in the company's growth strategy and the resilience of its marketplace [5][24] - The company anticipates a modest deceleration in GMV growth in Q4 due to various headwinds, including the full impact of the de minimis change [33][34] - For 2026, the company plans for continued positive FX-neutral GMV and revenue growth, while being mindful of potential lapping dynamics [37][38] Other Important Information - The company returned approximately $760 million to shareholders through repurchases and cash dividends [27] - Non-GAAP gross margin was 71.6%, with total advertising revenue reaching $525 million, representing GMV penetration of 2.6% [30][31] - The company is committed to maintaining a strong culture and has received recognition for its workplace environment [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on AI's impact on eBay's business - Management highlighted AI's potential to unlock supply for consumers and enhance user experience through improved recommendations and search capabilities [44][46] Question: Margins and investment strategies - Management discussed balancing long-term growth with margin flow-through, noting increased product development expenses aimed at strategic initiatives [50][52] Question: Sustainability of growth in trading cards - Management expressed confidence in the long-term growth of trading cards, attributing recent success to trust and innovation in the category [71]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew 8% to $20.1 billion, with revenue increasing over 8% to $2.82 billion, and non-GAAP earnings per share rising over 14% year-over-year to $1.36 [5][27] - Non-GAAP operating income grew 9% year-over-year to $764 million, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 27.1% [27][32] - Free cash flow generated was $803 million, with cash and non-equity investments totaling $5.3 billion and gross debt at $6.8 billion [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Focus categories GMV growth accelerated to over 15%, with collectibles being the largest contributor, particularly in trading cards [5][7] - Motors parts and accessories (P&A) contributed significantly to GMV growth, with over 750 million live listings [9] - Fashion categories, including luxury and pre-loved apparel, also drove GMV growth, supported by partnerships like the one with Marks & Spencer [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. GMV growth accelerated to nearly 13%, while international GMV grew nearly 4% on an FX-neutral basis [28] - The U.K. C2C initiative saw notable improvements, contributing to overall volume growth [29] - Cross-border trade faced challenges due to the removal of the de minimis exemption, impacting year-over-year volume growth [28][29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging AI to enhance the selling experience and improve buyer engagement through features like Magical Listing and AI shopping agents [16][25] - Expansion into live commerce through eBay Live is seen as a strategic growth vector, with significant momentum in the U.S. and plans for further expansion in Europe [12][25] - The acquisition of Tise aims to strengthen the company's position in the circular economy and enhance its presence in the Nordics [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged macroeconomic challenges but expressed confidence in the company's growth strategy and the resilience of its marketplace [5][24] - The outlook for Q4 includes expected GMV between $20.5 billion and $20.9 billion, reflecting durable growth trends [33] - Management highlighted the importance of balancing top-line growth with margin flow-through, indicating ongoing investments in strategic initiatives [52][41] Other Important Information - The company returned approximately $760 million to shareholders through repurchases and cash dividends [27] - Non-GAAP gross margin was 71.6%, with a slight decline attributed to managed shipping and traffic acquisition costs [31] - The company plans to repurchase approximately $2.5 billion of shares for the full year [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on AI's impact on eBay's business - Management discussed the potential of AI to unlock supply for consumers and enhance the shopping experience through improved recommendations and discovery [44][46] Question: Margins and investment strategies - Management elaborated on balancing long-term growth with margin flow-through, noting increased product development expenses and strategic investments [50][52] Question: Sustainability of growth in trading cards - Management expressed confidence in the long-term growth of trading cards, driven by trust and innovation, while acknowledging that growth may not be linear [71]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew 8% to $20.1 billion, with revenue increasing over 8% to $2.82 billion, and non-GAAP earnings per share rising over 14% year-over-year to $1.36 [4][27] - Non-GAAP operating income grew 9% year-over-year to $764 million, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 71.6% and a non-GAAP operating margin of 27.1% [27][31] - Free cash flow reached $803 million, with cash and non-equity investments totaling $5.3 billion and gross debt at $6.8 billion [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Focus categories GMV growth accelerated to over 15%, with collectibles being the largest contributor, particularly in collectible card games and sports trading cards [4][5] - Motors Parts and Accessories (P&A) contributed significantly to GMV growth, with over 750 million live listings [7][8] - Fashion categories, including luxury and pre-loved apparel, also drove GMV growth, supported by partnerships like the one with Marks & Spencer [8][9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. market GMV growth accelerated to nearly 13%, while international GMV grew nearly 4% on an FX-neutral basis [28][29] - The UK C2C initiative saw notable improvements in customer satisfaction and GMV growth, with the introduction of managed shipping [12][29] - The removal of the de minimis exemption for imports under $800 created challenges for cross-border trade into the U.S. [22][23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging AI to enhance the selling experience and improve buyer engagement through features like Magical Listing and AI Shopping Agent [15][16] - Expansion of eBay Live into new markets is seen as a strategic growth vector, with significant momentum in the U.S. and UK [10][11] - The acquisition of TIES aims to strengthen the company's position in the circular economy and enhance its presence in the Nordics [13][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the durability of growth trends, despite facing macroeconomic challenges and changes in trade policy [4][28] - The company anticipates continued growth in focus categories and is investing in strategic initiatives to drive long-term growth [25][41] - For Q4, GMV is expected to be between $20.5 and $20.9 billion, with revenue guidance between $2.83 and $2.89 billion [33][34] Other Important Information - The company returned approximately $760 million to shareholders through repurchases and cash dividends [27] - The advertising revenue grew nearly 23%, with first-party ads contributing significantly to this growth [20][30] - The company plans to repurchase approximately $2.5 billion of shares for the full year [39] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on AI's impact on eBay's business - Management highlighted AI's potential to unlock supply for consumers and enhance user experience through improved recommendations and search capabilities [44][45] Question: Margins and investment strategies - Management discussed balancing long-term growth with margin flow-through, noting increased product development expenses aimed at strategic initiatives [48][49] Question: Sustainability of growth in trading cards - Management expressed confidence in the long-term growth of trading cards, driven by trust and innovation, while acknowledging that growth may not be linear [64][66]

Q3 2025 Performance Highlights - eBay's Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) reached $20.1 billion [7], exceeding guidance of $19.2 - $19.6 billion [43]. - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $2.8 billion [7], surpassing the guided range of $2.69 - $2.74 billion [43]. - Non-GAAP operating margin stood at 27.1% [7], hitting the high end of the guidance [43]. - Diluted Non-GAAP EPS was $1.36 [7], above the guidance of $1.29 - $1.34 [43]. - eBay has 16 million Enthusiast Buyers [7], defined as buyers with at least 6 purchase days and $800+ annual spend [9]. Category Growth & Strategic Initiatives - Focus Categories (Collectibles, Motors Parts & Accessories, Fashion) grew +15% year-over-year on an FX-Neutral basis [12], outpacing the rest of the marketplace by approximately 11 percentage points [12]. - eBay Live's annual GMV run-rate increased by approximately 5x year-over-year [14]. - Over $1 billion has been disbursed to sellers globally through financing partners since 2021 via Seller Capital [37]. Q4 2025 Guidance - GMV is projected to be between $20.5 - $20.9 billion [72], representing a 6%-8% spot growth [72]. - Revenue is expected to be in the range of $2.83 - $2.89 billion [72], indicating a 10%-12% spot growth [72]. - Non-GAAP operating margin is guided to be 25.8% - 26.3% [72]. - Diluted Non-GAAP EPS is projected to be $1.31 - $1.36 [72], reflecting a 5%-9% growth [72]. FY 2025 Guidance - GMV is expected to be $78.9 - $79.3 billion [73], with a 6% - 6% spot growth [73]. - Revenue is projected to be $10.97 - $11.03 billion [73], showing a 7% - 7% spot growth [73]. - Non-GAAP operating margin is guided to be 27.7% - 27.8% [73]. - Diluted Non-GAAP EPS is expected to be $5.42 - $5.47 [73], representing an 11% - 12% growth [73]. - The company anticipates approximately $1.5 billion in Free Cash Flow (FCF) in FY'25 [73].

Core Insights - eBay is set to report its third-quarter 2025 results on October 29, with expected total revenues between $2.69 billion and $2.74 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 6.38% [1][10] - The projected diluted non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) for the third quarter is between $1.29 and $1.34, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 8% to 12% [1][10] Revenue and Earnings Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 revenues is $2.74 billion, with an earnings consensus of $1.33 per share, suggesting an 11.76% increase from the previous year [2] - eBay has consistently surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of 3.35% [2] Growth Drivers - Strong U.S. demand and momentum in high-value categories, particularly collectibles and trading cards, are expected to positively influence eBay's performance [3] - The "eBay Live" platform has gained traction, contributing to increased buyer participation and transaction growth, especially in luxury segments [4] - Advertising growth and managed shipping monetization are anticipated to support revenue growth and expand high-margin revenue streams [5] - Investments in AI and automation, such as Magic Listings and Operator AI Shopping Assistant, are likely to enhance transaction efficiency and buyer retention [6] Challenges - eBay's performance may be negatively impacted by a weak macroeconomic environment in Europe, characterized by soft consumer demand and sluggish retail activity [7] - Muted GDP projections for 2025 indicate limited economic momentum in the European region [7] Earnings Prediction Model - The Zacks model predicts an earnings beat for eBay, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +1.09% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [8]

Core Insights - Livestream shopping is gaining traction in the US, mirroring its success in China, with e-commerce platforms capitalizing on this trend [4][16] - Livestreamers engage audiences by promoting products, answering questions, and offering exclusive deals, creating a social shopping experience [3][8] Group 1: Livestreaming in China - Livestream commerce in China began to flourish in 2018, significantly driven by a challenge between Alibaba's Jack Ma and influencer Austin Li [5][6] - Austin Li, known as the "Lipstick King," sold 15,000 lipsticks in five minutes, showcasing the potential of livestreaming for sales [6] - Livestreams in China combine shopping with entertainment, creating a dynamic environment that encourages consumer engagement [7][8] Group 2: Growth in the US - In the past two years, livestream shopping has seen a 165% increase in shoppers during Black Friday and Cyber Monday on TikTok Shop, generating $100 million in sales [16] - A survey indicated that 45% of US adults had participated in live shopping events, highlighting the growing acceptance of this shopping format [17] - The collectibles market is particularly benefiting from livestreaming, with eBay's CEO noting that collectibles represent a $10 billion annual business for the platform [22] Group 3: Livestreamers' Experiences - Livestreamers enjoy flexible working hours and the ability to monetize their interests, although many supplement their income with other jobs [23][24] - The increasing number of livestreamers has led to audience dilution, affecting viewer counts for individual streamers [26] - Despite the challenges, livestreamers like Andrew Martin and Caleb Wessels value the interaction with their audience, even if their earnings are modest [27][28]