CIIF takeaways: Humanoid robot centre of attention On 24 September 2025, we visited the CIIF (China Industrial Industry Fair) in Shanghai. Here are the key takeaways. Hardware is not a bottleneck for humanoid robots, but software is. The price quoted for dexterous hands has reduced from RMB50-100k/hand to RMB10-60k/hand. Linkerbot's (not listed) dexterous hand with 7 Degrees of Freedom (DoF) is now priced at only RMB8.8k/hand. For reducers, overseas players like Nidec (6594 JP, JPY2642, Not rated) are seeki ...

Core Insights - Tesla's auto business is facing significant challenges, with a noted decline in sales and market share, particularly in California, where sales fell 12% year over year, leading to a drop in market share from 60.1% in 2023 to 52.5% in 2024 [2] - Despite these challenges, Tesla's stock has seen a 27% increase over the past month, partly due to Elon Musk's $1 billion share buyback, which has positively influenced investor sentiment [2] - The company is also making strides in other areas, such as the rollout of its robotaxi business and the introduction of a refreshed Model Y, which may provide new growth opportunities [3][4] Company Performance - Tesla's global EV sales fell 14% year over year in the second quarter, indicating a broader demand crisis despite an overall increase in electric vehicle purchases in California [2] - The company's auto business is further complicated by the loss of regulatory fines, which previously contributed nearly $3 billion in margins, making the core auto business more challenging [1] - Tesla is progressing towards scaling production of its humanoid robot, which adds another dimension to its long-term growth strategy [4] Market Dynamics - The automotive industry is experiencing a transformative shift with Tesla's entry into the robotaxi market, which could open up a sizable new market beyond its core operations [3] - Investor confidence has improved following Elon Musk's reduced government-related engagements, which may enhance Tesla's near-term execution [3]

Group 1: Tesla's Valuation and Market Position - Tesla is characterized as a "meme stock" with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio exceeding 200, which is significantly higher than competitors like Nvidia (25-30), Apple (35-36), and Microsoft (around 35) [1][2] - Tesla's global electric vehicle (EV) sales fell by 14% year-over-year in the second quarter, indicating challenges in maintaining demand [2] - In California, Tesla's sales decreased by approximately 12% year-over-year in 2024, leading to a drop in market share from 60.1% in 2023 to 52.5% in 2024, despite an overall increase in EV purchases in the state [2] Group 2: Recent Developments and Future Prospects - Tesla has completed a limited commercial rollout of its robotaxi business in Austin, which is seen as a transformative shift in the automotive industry and opens new market opportunities [3] - Investor sentiment improved after Elon Musk reduced his government-related engagements, which has boosted confidence in Tesla's near-term execution [3] - The company introduced a refreshed Model Y with design and performance upgrades and plans to unveil new mass-market models in the upcoming quarter [3] - Tesla is also progressing towards scaling production of its humanoid robot, adding another dimension to its long-term growth strategy [3]

Jack Ma-backed Ant showcased its first humanoid robot, formally joining an intensifying effort by Chinese companies to compete with the US https://t.co/TNlEyY4GvG ...

US Government & Business - The US government is increasingly acting like a business, with a focus on dealmaking and economic upside [1][2][4][20] - The government took a 10% ownership stake in Intel in exchange for previously awarded funds from the Chips Act and the DoD secure enclave program, not through direct cash investment [6][12] - This action aligns with historical precedents where the government has taken equity stakes in companies during crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis (TARP program) and the 1984 Continental Illinois bank failure [8][10] - The appointment and potential removal of a Federal Reserve board governor is being viewed through a business lens, similar to a CEO firing an employee accused of a serious crime [17][18][20] Volatility & Investment - Volatility, when harvested correctly, can be a useful tool for risk management and yield generation, especially in assets like Bitcoin [23] - Bitcoin's volatility is a designed feature due to its fixed quantity, leading to price volatility as a natural outcome [24] - Intraday volatility in crypto is as important as close-to-close volatility, and Bitcoin exhibits fat kurtosis with occasional gaps [27][30] - There are two types of investors: those who seek volatility for potentially higher returns and those who avoid it [32] Humanoid Robots & Nvidia - Nvidia has released a new humanoid robot brain powered by the Nvidia Blackwell GPU with 128 gigabytes of memory, targeting the software needs of humanoid robot companies [33][34] - Early adopters of Nvidia's humanoid robot brain include companies like Agility, Boston Dynamics, and Figure [34] - Nvidia is positioning itself to "tax the whole industry" by providing the software, memory, and intelligence for humanoid robots, rather than building the robots themselves [35]

Company Strategy & Collaboration - Tesla collaborates closely with xAI [1] - Elon Musk expresses concern about the potential risks associated with humanoid robots, aiming to prevent a "Terminator" scenario [1] Robotics & AI - The market has numerous humanoid robot startups [1] - Elon Musk indicates his efforts to mitigate potential risks have caused some delays [1]

Robots are folding laundry. I repeat, robots are folding laundry. The newest demo of the figure 2 humanoid robot shows off its folding skills and potential areas of improvement.Laundry is probably one of the top things people comment about when we cover robots on what the future. And while that future is closer than ever before, it's not quite here yet. We're going to dig into all the details, compare this robot to another humanoid that's been practicing with laundry, and I'm going to try folding the same a ...

Robotics Technology - UBtech's Walker S2 is claimed to be the first autonomous humanoid robot capable of changing its own battery [1] - Walker S2's hot-swap capabilities potentially allow for 24/7 operation without powering down [1] Company Focus - UBtech is a Chinese robotics manufacturer [1] Media & Engagement - CNET promotes its YouTube channel, browser extension, Amazon storefront, and various social media platforms [1]

Robot Opportunity & Cost - Humanoid robot market represents a significant opportunity, potentially the largest ever [1] - Optimus robot is projected to cost less than a small car, around $20,000 per unit at high volume (1 million+ units per year) [1] Robot Adoption & Ratio - Expects the number of robots to vastly exceed the number of humans, with everyone desiring a robot companion [1] - Predicts a humanoid robot to human ratio of at least 2:1, possibly 3:1 [2] Robot Functionality - Humanoid robots will be capable of various tasks, including walking dogs, mowing lawns, watching and teaching children [2] - Robots will also be involved in manufacturing goods, operating behind the scenes [2]

Investment Rating - The overall industry investment rating is "In-Line" for Technology - Software & Services in Europe [8] Core Insights - The report highlights several positive developments from the Hexagon LIVE conference, including the introduction of a humanoid robot named Aeon and a clearer strategy for Hexagon, although short-term earnings risks and a lack of clarity on the remaining Hexagon hinder a more constructive outlook [2][4] - RELX's partnership with Harvey is noted as a significant move in the legal AI sector, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape and keeping RELX at the forefront of Legal AI [3] - Informa reported a 7.9% underlying growth in its AGM update, indicating solid performance across the group [3] Company Summaries Hexagon - Key takeaways from Hexagon include the rebranding of ALI to Octave and the announcement of Aeon, a humanoid robot [2] - The report suggests a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation but expresses caution due to short-term earnings risks and strategic clarity [2] RELX - The partnership with Harvey is seen as a strategic advantage, positioning RELX favorably within the Legal AI market [3] Informa - Informa's AGM update reflects a strong underlying growth performance of 7.9%, indicating positive momentum for the company [3] Autodesk - The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) data for May 2025 shows cautious optimism with month-over-month improvement in billings demand, although overall demand remains in decline [5] monday.com - The company is moving upmarket and expanding its product offerings, which presents both risks and opportunities, leading to an equal-weight rating due to fair pricing at approximately 34x EV/FCF [6] Salesforce - Analysis suggests potential upside to FY27/FY28 due to recent price increases [6] Back-Office Sector - The report indicates that the back-office sector is likely to be one of the first beneficiaries of AI, with ERP upgrades catalyzed by AI technology [4]