Humanoid robots could double Xpeng's revenue in FY30. Xpeng showcased its 7th-generation humanoid robot Iron on 5 Nov 2025, which became a key topic during the earnings call. Xpeng targets mass production of its humanoid robots by the end of 2026 and an annual sales volume of 1mn units in 2030 with a similar price tag as a car. We are of the view that carmakers could be important players in humanoid robots given their advantages in autonomous driving (AD) technologies. It appears to us that Xpeng now has th ...

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to become a globally recognized embodied intelligence company, integrating humanoid robots with the automotive industry as its "third growth curve" following AI and globalization [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 20.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 101.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5% [4]. - The net loss for Q3 was 380 million, reduced from 480 million in Q2 and 1.81 billion in the same period last year [4]. - The overall gross margin reached a new high of 20.1%, up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year and 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The company expects to achieve breakeven in Q4, with projected deliveries of 125,000 to 132,000 vehicles and revenue between 21.5 billion and 23 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 33.5% to 42.8% [7]. Group 2: Product Strategy and Market Position - The company plans to launch 7 new models next year, including 4 dual-energy vehicles, to enhance its market presence in the extended-range electric vehicle segment [10][11]. - The MONA M03 currently accounts for 40% of the company's sales, indicating a reliance that poses risks if market competition intensifies [5]. - The extended-range electric vehicle market is experiencing a decline, with wholesale sales down 1.9% year-on-year in October, and a continuous drop in market share since June [12][13]. Group 3: Research and Development Focus - R&D expenses reached 2.43 billion in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 48.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.1% [6]. - The company is committed to humanoid robot development, with plans to mass-produce self-developed humanoid robots by the end of 2026, targeting annual sales of over 1 million units by 2030 [8][9]. - The company faces challenges in ensuring technological reliability, supply chain maturity, and scenario validation for its robot products [9].

【文/观察者网 潘昱辰 编辑/高莘】据《日本经济新闻》报道，由于在中国市场销售表现持续低迷，本 田汽车将调整在中国的产品发布规划，尤其是纯电动汽车的上市战略，以提高成本竞争力。 其中，本田原定于2025年12月前上市的旗舰纯电动轿跑车型，将推迟至2026年后上市；后续车型的发售 时间也将延期。 本田 视觉中国 本田纯电动车型战略规划的调整，主要受纯电动品牌"烨"首批车型市场反馈不佳的影响。 今年3-4月，本田在华的两家合资公司东风本田和广汽本田曾陆续上市S7和P7两款"烨"品牌纯电动中型 SUV。其中S7初始售价区间高达25.99万-30.99万元；P7的初始售价区间也达到19.99万-24.99万元。 东风本田S7 视觉中国 尽管这两款车型集成了中国本土研发的电动化及智能化技术，但从市场表现看，其中国新能源汽车市场 仍然缺乏竞争力。乘联分会数据显示，尽管上市后不久迅速宣布降价，但东风本田S7自上市以来累计 销量仅1000辆出头，广汽本田P7累计销量也仅1400辆左右。 《日本经济新闻》报道称，由于S7和P7销量低迷，本田认为后续纯电动车型的价格竞争力也不及中国 自主品牌，因此必须重新调整包括性能在内的开发计 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent launch of the IRON robot by Xiaopeng Motors, highlighting its humanoid design and the significant media attention it has garnered, while also addressing the skepticism surrounding its capabilities and production readiness [3][5][11]. Group 1: Xiaopeng's Robot Launch - Xiaopeng Motors unveiled the IRON robot, which resembles a humanoid figure, generating excitement comparable to major tech events like those of Elon Musk [3][5]. - The launch event led to a surge in Xiaopeng's stock price, increasing by 14%, indicating a positive market reaction and renewed interest from institutional investors [5][9]. - The event was strategically designed to capture public interest, with social media discussions reaching over 200 million views [5][9]. Group 2: Technical Aspects of the IRON Robot - The IRON robot features a fully humanoid structure, including a skeletal system that mimics human spine curvature, allowing for natural movements [14]. - It incorporates innovative materials, such as lattice structures for muscle layers, providing both rigidity and flexibility, and a skin-like covering with tactile sensors for emotional interaction [14][21]. - Xiaopeng's approach to robotics emphasizes the need for humanoid designs to fit into human-centric environments, marking a significant shift from previous four-legged designs [11][14]. Group 3: Industry Context and Competition - The automotive industry is increasingly venturing into humanoid robotics, with companies like Xiaomi and FAW Group also developing their own humanoid robots [16][18]. - Xiaopeng Motors leverages its existing automotive technology and expertise to reduce research and development costs in the robotics sector, as both fields share significant technological overlaps [18][19]. - Despite the advancements, Xiaopeng's automotive business is still facing challenges, including a reported net loss of 1.14 billion yuan in the first half of the year [22][25].

Core Insights - The development of embodied intelligent robots marks a significant milestone for Xiaopeng, as it aims to build confidence among both industry and non-industry users in Chinese technology [1][3][5] Group 1: Robot Development and Philosophy - Xiaopeng emphasizes the importance of human-like robots, stating that they can learn more effectively from human data and adapt to environments designed for humans [8][10] - The company believes that the future of robotics will see a significant market potential, with robots expected to surpass automotive sales in the long term [16][18] - Xiaopeng's approach to robotics involves a high degree of integration between software and hardware, aiming for a 1:1 relationship to ensure seamless coordination among robot joints [5][10] Group 2: Business Strategy and Market Position - Xiaopeng plans to launch three Robotaxi models next year, focusing on creating new experiences and demands through technological disruption [12][20] - The company differentiates itself from competitors by emphasizing the commercial value of its technology and the potential for shared and private transportation models [20][21] - Xiaopeng's Robotaxi strategy includes a partnership with Gaode, leveraging its extensive ecosystem for operational support [21] Group 3: Financial Outlook and R&D Investment - The company is investing heavily in R&D, with an estimated budget of 10 billion yuan for this year, focusing on software development to enhance long-term profitability [45] - Xiaopeng aims to balance its investments in robotics and automotive sectors, with a vision of achieving significant revenue growth in the coming years [45] - The company is cautious about rapid growth, prioritizing foundational stability over speed in its expansion strategy [41]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors is at a growth inflection point driven by "product iteration + leading smart driving," with its robot business providing long-term potential and range-extended models ensuring stable sales in the short to medium term [1] Group 1: Smart Driving and Long-term Growth - Xiaopeng Motors is positioned as a core player in smart driving, with a clear long-term growth logic. By H1 2025, the penetration rate of smart driving features (L2 and above) in China is expected to reach 82.6%. The company has focused on smart driving since its inception, developing its own Turing AI chip and VLA/VLM large models for end-to-end implementation, achieving nationwide "no-map" smart driving [2] - The company plans to expand into Robotaxi and humanoid robots, creating a three-stage growth curve of "smart driving - Robotaxi - robots," solidifying its core advantages in intelligence and forming a closed industrial chain [2] Group 2: Sales Growth Driven by Range-Extended Strategy - In response to the reduction of purchase tax and diverse user demands, the company has proposed a dual strategy of "range-extended + pure electric," planning at least five range-extended models covering sedans and SUVs. The first range-extended model, the X9, is expected to go into production within the year, complementing popular pure electric models like Mona M03 and P7 to create a more balanced product matrix [3] - The range-extended models are anticipated to become a crucial support for stable sales and market share over the next 1-2 years [3] Group 3: Product Design Logic Transformation - The company has established "design" and "intelligence" as its dual strengths, shifting its R&D process from "engineering constraints first" to "design first." The new P7 has showcased differentiated results. Future efforts will focus on enhancing design while leveraging self-developed Turing chips and large models to upgrade smart driving and smart cabin experiences [4] - Organizational adjustments and modular design will improve cost control, aiming to create a "no weaknesses, multiple strengths" framework in design, intelligence, and cost, with expectations to continuously launch high-tech and cost-effective popular models [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry [5]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, Tesla's global deliveries exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 7.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29.4%, reaching 497,000 units. The Model 3 and Model Y standard versions were launched in North America with reduced starting prices [1]. - Xpeng's sales surpassed 40,000 units in September, marking a year-on-year increase of 94.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.3% [1]. - NIO's deliveries also showed growth, with a year-on-year increase of 64.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.0%, totaling 34,749 units in September [1]. Summary by Sections Tesla and New Forces Sales Tracking - Tesla's global delivery volume reached 497,000 units in Q3 2025, with Model 3 and Y sales contributing significantly [1]. - Xpeng delivered 41,581 units in September, while NIO and Li Auto reported deliveries of 34,749 and 33,951 units, respectively [1]. Order Trends and Delivery Cycles - Tesla's delivery cycles for the domestic Model 3 and Model Y have been extended, indicating high demand as the peak season approaches [2]. - New energy vehicle manufacturers like Li Auto and NIO are also experiencing changes in delivery cycles, with some models seeing extended wait times [2]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as NIO, Xpeng, SAIC Motor, and Geely Automobile, as well as parts suppliers like Fuyao Glass and Top Group [3]. - It highlights the potential in the robotics and intelligent driving themes, suggesting a focus on companies involved in these sectors [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation Table - The earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies are provided, with NIO, Xpeng, and SAIC Motor all receiving a "Buy" rating based on their projected performance [4].

Group 1 - The overall customer flow during the National Day holiday was high, with some brands experiencing better sales compared to the previous months, although there was a decline compared to the same period last year due to new store openings in the same city [2][11][16] - The most popular models included the AITO M7, Yu7, and i6, with customers particularly focused on delivery times and vehicle features [2][7][11][22] - Promotional activities included test drive incentives and tax rebate policies, which helped boost consumer confidence, especially for newly launched models [2][11][17] Group 2 - Some brands did not implement any additional promotional activities during the holiday, maintaining a consistent policy from the previous month [8][9][12] - Local auto shows were held, but their effectiveness in attracting customers was considered limited, with some brands opting for external exhibitions instead [13][19][24] - The impact of subsidy reductions was noted, with some brands offering trade-in subsidies to encourage purchases before the changes took effect [12][23]

Core Viewpoint - The emphasis on design and aesthetics is becoming a key differentiator in the automotive industry, as highlighted by industry leaders like Lei Jun and He Xiaopeng, who prioritize "visual appeal" in their vehicle offerings [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The automotive industry is increasingly recognizing that technological features such as air suspension, all-wheel drive, and intelligent driving systems are often sourced from suppliers, making them less unique [1] - The true differentiation among brands may ultimately rely on design elements, which are harder for competitors to replicate [1]

Group 1 - Xpeng is increasing its exposure to the European market through partnerships with regional dealerships [2] - This move is part of a broader strategy to enhance competition with other players in the market [2]