浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 新能源汽车行业 小鹏汽车（XPEV.US/9868.HK）：汽车毛利率 持续改善，预期四季度实现盈亏平衡 SPDBI 目标价 目前价 市场预期区间 资料来源：Bloomberg、浦银国际 小鹏汽车-W（9868.HK） 目标价（港元） 106.9 潜在升幅/降幅 +16% 目前股价（港元） 91.90 52 周内股价区间（港元） 27.55-106 总市值（百万港元） 175,208 近 90 日均成交额（百万港元） 1,631.6 注：股价截至 2025 年 8 月 22 日收盘 市场预期区间 USD 17.0 USD 23.8 USD 31.0 USD 27.4 HKD 91.9 重申小鹏汽车的"买入"评级。上调小鹏汽车（XPEV.US）目标价至 27.4 美元，潜在升幅 15%；上调小鹏汽车-W（9868.HK）目标价至 106.9 港 元，潜在升幅 16%。 图表 1：盈利预测和财务指标（2023-2027E） | 人民币百万元 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

机构：国投证券 研究员：徐慧雄/者斯琪 毛利率提升显著，经营效率持续改善。 1）25Q2 汽车销售毛利率14.3%，同比+8.0pct，环比+3.9pct，同环比提升显著。公司汽车销售毛利率环 比大幅提升一方面由于产品销售结构的变化；另一方面公司持续推进技术降本及供应链降本；此外公司 Q2 销量环比提升，带来规模效应提升。 2）公司经营效率持续改善，费用率环比下降。25Q2 公司研发/销售、一般及管理费用率分别为 12.1%/11.9% ， 同比-6.01/-7.54pct，环比-0.45/-0.45pct。 展望：AI 能力强大，增程系列开启产品大周期。 1）24 年以来公司经营能力持续改善，管理能力、组织效率、供应链能力以及产品打造能力均大幅提 升。 2）新车周期强势：新款P7 即将上市；Q4 增程新车上市；25 年2款Mona SUV 及多款增程。 事件：小鹏汽车发布2025Q2 业绩：2025Q2 实现营业收入182.7亿元，同比+125.3%，环比+15.6%；净亏 损4.8 亿元，同环比亏损收窄；Non-GAAP 净亏损3.9 亿元，同环比亏损收窄。 强势产品周期销量驱动营收高速增长： 1）25Q ...

Summary of XPeng Inc. (XPEV/9868.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: XPeng Inc. (XPEV/9868.HK) - **Industry**: Electric Vehicles (EVs) Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **2Q25 Results**: Total revenue met expectations, with vehicle gross profit and EBIT exceeding estimates by +17% and +12% respectively, indicating effective cost reduction efforts [1][2] - **Gross Margin Improvement**: Vehicle gross margin improved to 14.3% in 2Q25, up +8.0 percentage points year-over-year and +3.9 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, attributed to product mix changes and supply chain optimization [7] - **Future Margin Outlook**: Vehicle gross margin expected to increase to 15.5% in 3Q25 and 17.7% in 4Q25, with total gross margin projected to reach high-teens in 4Q25 [2][7] Sales Volume and Pricing - **Sales Volume Guidance**: Management expects to deliver 116,000 units in 3Q25 and 142,000 units in 4Q25, driven by new model launches [2][7] - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: ASP is projected to decline by -2% in 3Q25 due to lower pricing of new models but is expected to improve by +12% in 4Q25 due to product mix optimization [2] - **Product Portfolio**: XPeng's current offerings span the Rmb100k-500k price range, with new models set to launch at Rmb300k and Rmb400k levels [7] New Model Launches - **Upcoming Models**: New P7 launching on August 27, expected to rank among the top 3 in its price segment. The X9 EREV model is set to launch in 4Q25 [4][7] - **Increased Launch Frequency**: XPeng plans to introduce 10 new and refreshed models annually from 2024 to 2026, significantly increasing from 1-2 models per year previously [10] Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations - **Volkswagen Cooperation**: XPeng reported Rmb1.4 billion in revenue from services in 2Q25, with expectations for sequential growth in 3Q/4Q. A new agreement with Volkswagen aims to expand technical collaboration into ICE/PHEV platforms [7] Research and Development - **R&D Investment**: Full-year R&D expenses for 2025 raised to Rmb9 billion, focusing on AI and technology advancements [7] Market Position and Future Outlook - **Market Growth**: XPeng's overseas sales volume increased by +150% year-over-year in 2Q25, with production starting at its Indonesia factory [9] - **Smart Driving Technology**: The Ultra version of the G7 accounts for 50% of its sales, featuring advanced AI capabilities. XPeng aims to lead in smart driving functions by 2026 [9] - **Robotaxi and Humanoid Robots**: Plans for mass production of L4 capable vehicles and humanoid robots are set for 2026, with trial operations for robotaxis expected to begin [9] Investment Thesis - **Buy Rating**: XPeng is rated as a "Buy" due to its growth trajectory, improved product competitiveness, and cost structure. The 12-month price target remains at US$24/HK$94, indicating an upside potential of +18% and +17% respectively [3][11] Risks - **Potential Risks**: Risks include lower-than-expected sales volume, increased price competition, and weaker market demand [11] Additional Important Information - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately $19.3 billion [8] - **Revenue Estimates**: Adjusted revenue estimates for 2025-2027 reflect a slight decrease in volume estimates but an increase in gross profit margin [3]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 风险提示： 新车订单/销量不及预期；毛利率爬坡不及预期；市场竞争加剧等。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 2Q25毛利率表现亮眼，ASP与毛利率有望逐季改善 1）2Q25小鹏汽车业务收入同比+147.6%/环比+17.5%至168.8亿元（ASP同环比-27.5%/+7.1%至16.4万元，交付 量同环比+241.6%/+9.8%至10.3万辆），汽车业务毛利率同比+7.9pcts/环比+3.8pcts至14.3%。2）2Q25 R&D费 用率同比-6.0pcts/环比-0.5pcts至12.1%，SG&A费用率同环比-7.5pcts/-0.4pcts至11.9%。3）截至2Q25，在手现金 等价物合计约475.7亿元。我们判断，2Q25公司毛利率表现亮眼，主要受益于Mona M ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of HKD 102.6 for the next six months [7]. Core Views - The company reported significant revenue growth in Q2 2025, achieving revenue of CNY 18.27 billion, a year-on-year increase of 125.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.6% [1]. - The automotive sales revenue reached CNY 16.9 billion in Q2 2025, up 148% year-on-year and 17% quarter-on-quarter, with vehicle deliveries of 103,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 241.6% [2]. - The gross margin for automotive sales improved significantly to 14.3%, an increase of 8.0 percentage points year-on-year and 3.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, driven by changes in product sales structure and cost reduction efforts [3]. - The company is expected to continue its strong product cycle with new models launching, including the new P7 and two new Mona SUVs in 2025 [4]. Financial Summary - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 90 billion, CNY 138.9 billion, and CNY 173.6 billion respectively, with corresponding price-to-sales ratios of 1.7, 1.1, and 0.88 [4]. - The net loss for 2025 is estimated at CNY 3.16 billion, improving from a loss of CNY 5.38 billion in 2024 [5]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to reach 16.0% in 2026 and 20.0% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [10].

2025 年 08 月 20 日 8 月 19 日，小鹏汽车公布 25Q2 财报： 1、营收：25Q2 公司交付汽车 103181 辆，同/环比+241.6%/+9.8%， Q2 营收 182.7 亿元，同/环比+125.3%/+15.6%。其中汽车业务营收 168.8 亿元，同/环比+147.5%/+17.5%；服务业务营收 13.9 亿元，同 /环比+7.8%/-3.5%。我们计算 Q2 单车 ASP 16.4 万元，同/环比- 27.5%/+7%。25 年 H1 公司累计交付 19.7 万辆，同比+279%；营收 340.8 亿元，同比+132.5%，我们计算单车 ASP 15.8 万元，同比- 33.3% 2、费用：Q2 研发/SGNA 费用分别为 22.1/21.7 亿元，研发/SGNA 费 用率分别为 12.1%/11.9%，环比-0.4pct/-0.5pct。 3、利润：Q2 毛利率 17.3%，同/环比+3.3pct/-1.7pct；其中汽车业 务毛利率 14.3%，同/环比+7.8pct/+3.8pct；其他及服务业务毛利率 53.6%，同/环比-0.3pct/-12.9pct。Q2 归母亏 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors has shown significant recovery and growth in its second quarter of 2025, achieving record highs in multiple key performance indicators, including sales, revenue, gross margin, and cash reserves [2][3][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Xiaopeng Motors reported total revenue of 18.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.6% [5][6]. - The company delivered 10.32 million vehicles in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 241.6% [3][5]. - Gross margin for Q2 2025 reached 17.3%, up 3.3 percentage points from the previous year, indicating improved cost control and pricing power [5][6]. - Cash reserves increased by over 22.9 billion yuan to 475.7 billion yuan, providing a strong financial buffer for future operations [2][10]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Xiaopeng Motors delivered a total of 197,200 vehicles in the first half of 2025, nearly 3.8 times the volume from the same period last year, achieving 52% of its annual target of 380,000 vehicles [3][5]. - Despite strong sales, the product mix shows an imbalance, with sedans dominating sales while SUVs lag behind [3][4]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings and emotional appeal, moving beyond just technical specifications to include design and user experience [11][12][15]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The electric vehicle industry in China is entering a new phase of profitability, with competitors like Li Auto and Zeekr also reporting improved financial results [7][8]. - Xiaopeng Motors is positioning itself to achieve profitability by reducing losses significantly, with a net loss of 4.8 billion yuan in Q2 2025, down from 12.8 billion yuan in the same quarter of the previous year [8][10]. - The company aims to establish a strong competitive edge in a rapidly evolving market, emphasizing both technological advancements and emotional engagement with consumers [12][15].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, the company achieved total revenues of RMB 18.27 billion, representing a 125.3% increase year over year and a 15.6% increase quarter over quarter [21] - Vehicle sales revenues were RMB 16.88 billion, marking a 147.6% increase year over year and a 17.5% increase quarter over quarter [21] - Gross margin improved to 17.3% compared to 14% in the same period of 2024 [23] - Vehicle gross margin increased to 14.3%, up from 6.4% year over year [24] - Net loss narrowed to RMB 480 million from RMB 1.28 billion year over year [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Deliveries reached 103,181 units, a 242% increase year over year [6] - The Mona M03 MAX accounted for over 80% of total Mona M03 sales, indicating strong performance in the product line [6] - Free cash flow exceeded RMB 2 billion in Q2, with total cash on hand surpassing RMB 47.5 billion [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Overseas deliveries exceeded 18,000 units in the first half of the year, increasing over 200% year over year [18] - The company ranks as the best-selling Chinese NEV startup brand in 10 markets, including Norway and France [18] - Q3 delivery forecast is between 113,000 to 118,000 units, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 142.8% to 153.6% [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to strengthen core capabilities in technology leadership, organizational strength, commercialization, and globalization [9] - Upcoming launches include the G7 and the new P7, with expectations to surpass 40,000 units in monthly sales starting in September [12] - The company plans to introduce several super electric models with advanced features and capabilities [12] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management emphasized a focus on sustainable growth despite intense price competition [6] - The company is confident in leading the market at scale while advancing operational efficiency toward sustainable profitability [20] - The introduction of the one vehicle dual energy strong product cycle is expected to significantly strengthen the company's market position [20] Other Important Information - The company is committed to full-stack in-house development of core hardware and software technologies, which has enabled significant advancements in AI capabilities [12] - The Turing AI SoC is expected to provide a generational lead in computing power for mass-produced vehicles [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Brand Position and Product Pricing - Management is focusing on product layout, leveraging technology, aesthetics, and brand to increase average selling price (ASP) and improve profitability [29][33] Question: Smart Driving Technology - The company believes its Turing chip provides a significant advantage in smart driving technology, with expectations for substantial differentiation from competitors [34][36] Question: Cooperation with Volkswagen - The expanded collaboration with Volkswagen includes electrical and electronic architecture, with potential revenue growth expected from this partnership [41][44] Question: Robotaxi Business - Future vehicles will include L4 capable models, with pilot programs planned for 2026, pending regulatory approvals [46][48] Question: P7 Strong Order Performance - The P7 has received high interest and presales orders, exceeding expectations, with a focus on aesthetics and performance [53][56] Question: Vehicle Gross Margin Improvement - The increase in vehicle gross margin is attributed to product mix changes, cost reductions, and scale [64][66] Question: R&D and Marketing Expenses - R&D expenses are expected to remain high due to ongoing investments in AI and technology, while marketing expenses will increase with new product launches [68][71] Question: Product Strategy Shift - The company is prioritizing design and aesthetics in its product strategy, reflecting a long-term transformation [75][78] Question: Response to Anti-Dilution Policy - The company is focused on innovation and quality, aligning with the new regulatory direction to improve competitiveness [79][82]

Core Insights - The new Xiaopeng P7 has launched pre-sales in 228 cities across China, following its debut event, raising questions about its potential to replicate past sales success [1] - The P7 is Xiaopeng's second mass-produced model, initially launched to compete with the domestic Tesla Model 3, achieving over 60,000 deliveries in 2021 and making Xiaopeng the top new energy vehicle brand that year [1] - However, the competitive landscape for electric vehicles in China has intensified since 2022, leading to a decline in P7's competitiveness and a prolonged sales slump for Xiaopeng until the introduction of the MONA M03 model [1] - Xiaopeng's chairman announced that the new P7 will officially launch this month, with a predicted price range of 250,000 to 350,000 yuan, and over 10,000 orders were placed within 7 minutes of the pre-sale opening [1] Product Features - The new P7 features a completely redesigned exterior that emphasizes a more stylish and technologically advanced coupe appearance [2] - It will be available in three versions: a 702 km long-range version, an 820 km ultra-long-range version, and a 750 km high-performance version, all capable of achieving 525 km of range with just 10 minutes of fast charging [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Next P7 was unveiled with features such as dual-chamber suspension, Ultra (Turing chip) intelligent driving, and a maximum range of 820 km. The pricing will be announced at the end of August, with a formal launch to follow [1]. Group 1: Product Features - The Next P7 has dimensions of 5017*1970*1427 mm, making it longer and wider than the current P7, but lower in height. The design emphasizes a futuristic feel rather than luxury [1]. - The vehicle features a dual-motor version that can accelerate from 0 to 100 km/h in 3.9 seconds [1]. Group 2: Design Perspective - The design of The Next P7 is described as original and futuristic, aiming to inherit the low stance and overall proportions of the previous model while innovating on its appearance. The design reflects the brand's attitude of being bold and different [1]. Group 3: Sales Outlook - The sales performance of The Next P7 will largely depend on its pricing, which is expected to be in the range of 250,000 to 300,000 yuan. The pre-sale has started, but the price has not yet been disclosed. Monthly sales are projected to reach 3,000 to 4,000 units [1].