Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research. E= Hong Kong Govt. estimate Morgan Stanley Research 5 M Foundation Source: HKMA, CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research Source: HKMA, CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 summary M Foundation Hong Kong Economics | Asia Pacific December 16, 2024 09:00 PM GMT 2025 Outlook: Duel Challenges Ahead Real GDP growth is set to moderate in 2025-26, as rising USChina trade tensions and increased price competitiveness in Mainland China weigh on investment and consumpt ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 ab 16 December 2024 Global Research China Economic Perspectives Mixed growth momentum in November Economics China Growth momentum showed a mixed picture in November After better-than-expected growth momentum in October, China had a mixed growth picture in November. Owing to major policy easing in the past several months, property sales growth rebounded to a positive YoY reading with its seasonally adjusted level improving further sequentially, lifting retail sales of related goo ...

This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. backdrop). Our top-picks for China consumer industry: Haier, Midea, YUMC, Anta, Tsingtao (H) and CRB. China Nov offline retail sales were up 6.1% yoy, while online went down by 2.7% yoy, due to the early start ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 China Ecommerce According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China online retail sales in 11M24 increased 7.4% YoY to Rmb14,031bn, slower than the 8.8% YoY increase as of October. On a monthly basis, online retail sales in November declined 2% YoY vs. 10% YoY growth in October, reflecting the earlier Singles Day promotion this year. We believe the better way to read the numbers is to look at accumulated online retail sales growth in OctoberNovember, which normalizes the ...

Company and Industry Overview * **Company**: Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) * **Industry**: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology Key Points and Arguments 1. **2024 Financial Guidance Reaffirmed**: Pfizer reaffirmed its full-year 2024 financial guidance, expecting revenues in the range of $61 billion to $64 billion and adjusted diluted earnings per share in the range of $2.75 to $2.95 [16]. 2. **2025 Financial Guidance**: Pfizer provided guidance for 2025, anticipating revenues in the range of $61 billion to $64 billion and adjusted diluted earnings per share in the range of $2.80 to $3.00 per share [19]. 3. **Revenue Growth**: Pfizer expects operational revenue growth of approximately flat to up 5% in 2025, driven by the growth of its oncology and non-COVID vaccine products [19]. 4. **Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share Growth**: Pfizer expects adjusted diluted earnings per share to grow operationally by approximately 10% to 18% in 2025, reflecting an operating margin expansion of over 250 basis points versus 2024 [19]. 5. **COVID-19 Products**: Pfizer expects its COVID-19 products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, to contribute to stable revenue in 2025, with both maintaining their market shares with stable pricing [20]. 6. **Oncology**: Pfizer expects its oncology products, such as Padcev, Lorbrena, and Ibrance, to contribute significantly to growth in the later part of the decade [24]. 7. **Non-COVID Vaccine Products**: Pfizer expects its non-COVID vaccine products, such as Abrysvo and Prevnar, to remain key contributors to its business [22]. 8. **Cost Reduction**: Pfizer achieved its goal of $4 billion in net cost savings by the end of 2024 and expects an additional $500 million in net cost savings in 2025 [11]. 9. **Capital Allocation**: Pfizer remains committed to maintaining and growing its dividend, investing in its business, and de-leveraging its balance sheet [31]. Other Important Content * **Seagen Acquisition**: Pfizer highlighted the successful integration of Seagen and the positive impact of the acquisition on its oncology portfolio [8]. * **Pipeline**: Pfizer discussed its robust pipeline, including several Phase 3 studies and potential new products in various therapeutic areas [9]. * **R&D Leadership**: Pfizer announced the appointment of Dr. Chris Boshoff as its Chief Scientific Officer and President of R&D [9]. * **Capital Return**: Pfizer plans to continue monetizing its stake in Haleon over time, considering its cash flow requirements and future market conditions [31]. * **Drug Pricing**: Pfizer discussed the impact of the IRA Medicare Part D redesign on its revenue and its commitment to transparency and passing savings to patients [53].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry Involved - **Company**: Apollo Global Management - **Industry**: Private Equity Core Points and Arguments 1. **Succession Planning**: Apollo Global Management's CEO Marc Rowan has not established a clear succession plan, which is critical for private equity firms. This has raised concerns about the firm's readiness for leadership transition in the event of his departure [4][4][4] 2. **Asset Management Growth**: Under Rowan's leadership, Apollo has grown to manage over $700 billion in assets and is positioning itself as a significant lender in the market [4][4][4] 3. **Rowan's Tenure**: Initially expected to serve for five years, Rowan's tenure may extend as he enjoys his role. His potential candidacy for Treasury Secretary under President-elect Trump highlighted the need for a succession plan [4][4][4] 4. **Management Team Depth**: Rowan emphasized the strength of Apollo's management team in response to questions about succession, indicating that the firm has capable leaders who could step up [4][4][4] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Sentiment**: There is a growing optimism among CEOs of major companies regarding the economy, which could influence investment strategies and market dynamics [2][2][2] 2. **Activist Investor Influence**: Honeywell is considering separating its aerospace business following pressure from activist investor Elliott, indicating a trend of corporate restructuring in response to shareholder demands [2][2][2] 3. **Union Activities**: Amazon union members at a third U.S. facility have voted to authorize a strike, reflecting ongoing tensions in labor relations within major corporations [2][2][2] 4. **Consumer Behavior**: There is a notable shift in consumer purchasing behavior due to anticipated price increases from tariffs, with many Americans stockpiling goods [17][17][17] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on Apollo Global Management's leadership dynamics and broader market trends that could impact investment strategies.

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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **US Economic Data**, focusing on **unemployment claims** and **mortgage applications** trends. Key Points on Unemployment Claims 1. **Initial Claims Increase**: Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by **17,000** to **242,000** for the week ending December 7, exceeding both the estimate of **232,000** and the consensus of **220,000**. This period is noted as volatile due to seasonal factors [2][5][11]. 2. **4-Week Moving Average**: The 4-week moving average of initial claims increased by **6,000** to **224,000**, remaining below the **227,000** observed at the beginning of November [2][5]. 3. **State-Level Increases**: Increases in initial claims were broad-based across states, with the largest increases in **California**, **Texas**, and **New York**. Notably, California saw a decrease of **10,000** claims in a recent week [3][5]. 4. **Continuing Claims**: Continuing claims rose by **15,000** to **1,886,000**, slightly above expectations and consensus. This level is considered elevated since mid-October [5][11]. 5. **Regional Risks**: Specific risks were highlighted in **Washington**, **Michigan**, and **North Carolina**, where continuing claims remain elevated due to seasonal factors and recent events [5][11]. Key Points on Mortgage Applications 1. **Mortgage Applications Decline**: Mortgage applications for purchase fell by **4.1%** in the week ending December 6, following a series of increases in November [14][15]. 2. **Interest Rates**: The 30-year mortgage contract rate was reported at **6.67%**, a slight decrease from previous weeks but still significantly above the **7.8%** peak in October of the previous year [15][16]. 3. **Market Outlook**: Despite recent monetary policy easing, mortgage rates are expected to remain elevated, which may hinder a significant recovery in mortgage applications [15][16]. Additional Insights - **Seasonal Patterns**: The report notes a potential new seasonal pattern in unemployment claims, suggesting a trend towards lower claims in winter months compared to previous years [4][11]. - **Economic Volatility**: The discussion emphasizes the volatility of economic data during the holiday season, which complicates the interpretation of trends [2][4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on unemployment claims and mortgage application trends, while also highlighting potential risks and seasonal patterns in the economic landscape.