交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-24） | | | | 铁矿：供应方面，海外铁矿发运大幅增加，外矿发运量环比增加 447.4 万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 吨至 3516.4 万吨，不过国内港口铁矿到港量延续回落。日均铁水产量环 | | | | | 比回落 0.6 万吨至 236.28 万吨，河北地区停产钢厂复产，本期铁水减量不 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 明显。需求核心仍在地产，新开工已回落至 2005 年水平，内需疲弱难改。 | | | | | 港口铁矿石库存小幅回落，仍处于 8 个月高位。铁矿石供需过剩格局难以 | | | | | 扭转，钢厂利润再度挤压，减产检修规模或进一步扩大，但目前钢厂的利 | | | | | 润以及累库水平还不足以自发性减产，短期负反馈概率不大，铁矿价格高 | | | | | 位震荡为主。 | | | | | 煤焦：受外蒙一亿的进口目标消息影响，叠加供暖季保供会议召开，市场 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 担 ...

观点 / 刘润 主笔 / 景九 责编 / 黄静 本文首发于2024年12月 ，希望对你有所启发。 以下是这篇次条重发文章正文 你知道比特币吗？ 没错。就是那个神乎其神的"虚拟货币"。它没有实体，全靠虚拟。在各种"一夜暴富"的故事中，担任主角。但因为太过"新潮"，它也一度被认为 是一个谎言。 前段时间，它的价格又在一路走高。尤其是今年，自从特朗普胜选之后，它的价格大涨，涨幅直逼40%。直到12月5日，一枚比特币的价格，首次 突破了10万美元。 （图片来自互联网） 10万美元，不是一个小数目。换算成人民币，大概有70多万了。所以，这件事也引起了很多人的关注。我的朋友圈，也有不少朋友在讨论。 尤其是，看到一个虚拟货币交易平台项目的时候。 那是我第一次接触虚拟货币交易。我听得有趣，也感到十分好奇，于是一边听项目发起人介绍，一边打开他们的交易网站，看看到底是怎么个事 儿。 看着看着，我就发现，他们支持比特币的交易。于是，我决定试着买一枚。毕竟，不实际体验一下，怎么能提出有价值的问题呢？ 有人说，胡闹。是不是我明天自己发行一套"老李币"，也能一枚10万元？这就是一个骗局。也有人说，不管是真是假，现在都10万美元一枚了， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year treasury bond: Uptrend [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Bottom oscillation [5] - Pulp: Weak oscillation [5] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Palm oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a weak bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a weak bias [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a weak bias [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a strong bias [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: Oscillation [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Wide-range oscillation [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Views - The supply and demand surplus pattern of iron ore is difficult to reverse, and the price is mainly oscillating. The upward driving force of coking coal and coke has weakened, and the short-term adjustment trend continues. The downstream demand for rebar is sluggish, and the price is at the bottom and oscillating. The demand for glass is weak, and the inventory continues to increase. The market for financial futures and options is volatile, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. The price of gold is oscillating at a high level, and the long-term support is strong. The price of logs is oscillating at the bottom, and the price of pulp is weakly oscillating. The oil and fat market is range-bound, and the meal market is oscillating with a weak bias. The price of live pigs is oscillating, and the slaughter rate is slowly rising. The price of rubber is oscillating, and the demand is gradually recovering. The PX, PTA, and MEG markets are oscillating, and the PR and PF markets are on the sidelines [2][4][5][8][10] Summary by Category Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Overseas iron ore shipments have increased significantly, while domestic port arrivals have continued to decline. The daily average hot metal output has stopped falling and rebounded, and the demand for iron ore has marginally improved. However, the supply and demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and the price is mainly oscillating [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Affected by the news of Mongolia's import target, the futures market has continued to decline. The fourth round of price increases has been implemented, but the profit repair of coke enterprises is limited. The cost pressure of coking plants is high, and the intention to start work is not high. The supply concerns in the coking coal industry have intensified, and the futures market is in a short-term adjustment trend [2] - **Rebar and wire rod**: The downstream demand is sluggish, and the winter storage replenishment has not yet started. The core lies in the demand for steel, and the domestic demand is difficult to change. The steel price will stop falling depending on whether the production reduction in the fourth quarter of 2025 can be strictly implemented by more than 5% and the intensity of the anti-"involution" policy implementation. Currently, the steel price is expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [2] Non-ferrous Metals - **Glass**: The spot price has been relatively weak recently, and some manufacturers have started to cut prices. The positive news in the market has been exhausted, and the demand for glass is generally weak. The enterprise inventory has continued to increase. According to the current supply and demand level, the daily melting volume of glass needs to drop to about 154,000 tons by the end of the year to resolve the overcapacity contradiction in the entire industry chain [2] - **Soda ash**: The report does not provide specific information on soda ash, only stating that the investment rating is oscillation [2] Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day's stock index performance was mixed, with the CSI 300 rising by 0.44%, the SSE 50 rising by 0.58%, the CSI 500 falling by 0.40%, and the CSI 1000 falling by 0.82%. The precious metals and oil and gas sectors had capital inflows, while the gas and cultural media sectors had capital outflows. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year treasury bond has increased by 1bp, and the central bank has carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 310.5 billion yuan. The net investment on the day is 11.5 billion yuan. The spot bond interest rate of treasury bonds is consolidating, and the market trend is slightly rebounding. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4] - **Gold and silver**: In the context of a high-interest rate environment and globalization reconstruction, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional core of real interest rates to the core of central bank gold purchases. The price of gold and silver is oscillating at a high level, and the long-term support is strong. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors [4] Light Industry Products - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has decreased, and the demand is expected to have no significant increase. The import volume of coniferous logs in September has increased compared with the previous month. The inventory pressure is relatively large, and the spot price is running steadily. It is expected that the log price will mainly oscillate at the bottom [5] - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp is running steadily. The cost support for pulp prices has weakened, and the demand is not good. It is expected that the pulp price will be weakly oscillating [5] - **Offset paper**: The spot market price of offset paper is running steadily. The supply is stable, and the market expectation is cautious. The paper price profit is low, and the enthusiasm for high-price stockpiling is low. It is expected that the price will be weakly oscillating [5] Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil**: The US soybean crushing has reached a record high, and the demand for soybean raw materials is strong. The production of Malaysian palm oil is higher than expected, and the export performance is strong. The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the overall oil and fat market will continue to operate in a range [5] - **Soybean meal and rapeseed meal**: The USDA report shows that the US soybean production, export, and ending inventory have all been adjusted down compared with September. The global soybean supply is still relatively loose. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the demand is supported by the high livestock inventory, but the high price of soybean meal suppresses the replenishment intention. It is expected that the soybean meal will be oscillating with a weak bias in the short term [5][8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs across the country has fluctuated slightly. The demand for pork has improved, and the slaughter rate has slowly increased. It is expected that the price of live pigs will oscillate, and the slaughter rate will continue to rise [8] - **Rubber**: The raw material supply in Yunnan is stable, while the output in Hainan is lower than expected. The overall inventory is still at a low level. The demand has gradually recovered, and the price is oscillating [10] Chemical Products - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: The PX supply is strong, and the downstream polyester is at the turning point between the off-season and the peak season. The PTA price is mainly oscillating with the cost side. The MEG has a long-term inventory accumulation pressure, and the short-term price is in a wide-range adjustment [10] - **PR and PF**: The PR market may oscillate weakly, and the PF market may be weakly sorted [10]

更值得深思的是，如此重要的机制设置，在ARK项目的白皮书中竟然只字未提。不仅如此，连号称专业的官方审计报告也对此保 持缄默。这种刻意隐瞒的行为，已经构成了对投资者的严重误导。 区块链技术最吸引人的特点是什么？毫无疑问是"去中心化"和"透明可信"。但ARK项目最近爆出的智能合约漏洞，却给这两个关 键词打上了巨大的问号。通过技术团队对该项目合约代码的深度挖掘，一个隐藏在华丽包装下的危险真相浮出水面。 该项目不仅暗中设置了拥有无限铸币权的特权地址，更令人不安的是，这一关键机制从未在任何公开资料中披露。这意味着什 么？意味着所谓的去中心化可能只是一个幌子，真正的控制权始终掌握在极少数人手中。 特权机制曝光：oracle和rbs地址的特殊权限 在ARK项目的智能合约中，技术人员发现了两个特殊的地址：oracle和rbs。这些地址被赋予了非同寻常的权限——能够为任意目 标地址铸造任意数量的代币。更令人担忧的是，这一过程没有任何限制性约束。 想象一下，如果有人掌握了这两个地址的私钥，就相当于拥有了整个项目的印钞机。他们可以在任何时候、任何地点，为自己或 他人创造无限量的代币。这种特权完全违背了区块链项目应有的公平性原则。 ...

16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-19） | | | | 铁矿：供应方面，海外铁矿发运大幅增加，外矿发运量环比增加 447.4 万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 吨至 3516.4 万吨，不过国内港口铁矿到港量延续回落。日均铁水产量环 | | | | | 比增加 2.66 万吨至 236.88 万吨铁水产量止跌回升，铁矿石需求边际回暖。 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 核心仍在钢材需求地产，新开工已回落至 2005 年水平，内需疲弱难改。 | | | | | 港口铁矿石库存继续增加，全国 45 个港口进口矿库存刷新 8 个月高位。 | | | | | 铁矿石供需过剩格局难以扭转，钢厂利润再度挤压，减产检修规模或进一 | | | | | 步扩大，目前钢厂的利润以及累库水平还不足以自发性减产，短期负反馈 | | | | | 概率不大，铁矿价格震荡为主。 | | | | | 煤焦：供暖季保供会议召开，市场担忧后续供给端有复产，煤焦上涨驱动 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 转弱。目前坑口焦煤价格高位运行，焦化厂成本压力大，多数焦化厂在亏 | | | | | 损 ...

Eugen Rochko 在其博客中表示，其性格并不适合去领导一个社交媒体项目，而长期的运营也影响了其 个人与项目整体的健康关系，加之项目的去中心化理念，是他作出辞任 CEO 决定的原因。 作为相关资产和 10 年"工龄"的补偿，这位创始人从平台为重组发起的募捐中得到了 100 万欧元（IT之 家注：现汇率约合 824.4 万元人民币）。此次募捐的所得金额还将用于员工招募、功能实现等方面。 IT之家 11 月 18 日消息，去中心化社交媒体 Mastodon 创始人 Eugen Rochko 今日正式宣布辞去首席执行 官职务，转任战略与产品顾问并继续留在该平台的领导团队中。 Mastodon 正推动该社媒的架构转型，Eugen Rochko 将向平台转移他对 Mastodon 商标与其它资产的所 有权。 ...

| | | | 铁矿：鲍威尔鹰派发言引发降息预期摇摆，宏观利好落地，黑色价格回归 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 基本面。供应方面，中国 47 港到港总量回落 544.8 万吨至 2769.3 万吨降 | | | | | 幅达 16.44%，主要是受上期高基数影响，仍处于近期偏高水平。铁水小 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 幅回升，核心仍在钢材需求地产，新开工已回落至 2005 年水平，内需疲 | | | | | 弱难改。港口铁矿石库存继续增加，全国 45 个港口进口矿库存刷新 8 个 | | | | | 月高位。铁矿石供需过剩格局难以扭转，钢厂利润再度挤压，目前钢厂的 | | | | | 利润以及累库水平还不足以自发性减产，短期负反馈概率不大，铁矿价格 | | | | | 震荡为主。 | | | | | 煤焦：供暖季保供会议召开，市场担忧后续供给端有复产，煤焦上涨驱动 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 转弱。目前坑口焦煤价格高位运行，焦化厂成本压力大，多数焦化厂在亏 | | | | | 损边缘，开工意向不高，焦炭第四轮提涨仍在博弈中。河北唐山地区限产 | | | | ...

Core Insights - Stablecoins have evolved from a conceptual tool in the cryptocurrency ecosystem to a crucial infrastructure for real-world payments, trading, and asset allocation [1] - The appeal of stablecoins lies in their operational logic and the associated risks, which vary across different types [1] Group 1: Traditional vs. Decentralized Financial Systems - The global financial system is at a crossroads, with traditional banking systems showing high costs and low efficiency, while a decentralized wave driven by blockchain technology seeks to eliminate intermediaries [4] - The 2008 financial crisis led to a fundamental questioning of the need for intermediaries, giving rise to Bitcoin as a peer-to-peer transaction experiment [4] Group 2: Types of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are categorized into four main types: 1. Fiat-backed stablecoins, which are pegged to currencies like the US dollar at a 1:1 ratio [7] 2. Commodity-backed stablecoins, such as those pegged to gold, which can still experience price volatility [8] 3. Crypto-collateralized stablecoins, which use cryptocurrencies as collateral but often require over-collateralization to maintain stability [8] 4. Algorithmic stablecoins, which aim to maintain value through smart contracts and algorithms without any backing assets [8] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The stablecoin market has seen significant growth, with a total market cap exceeding $300 billion as of mid-2025, and on-chain transaction volumes surpassing $8.9 trillion in the first half of 2025 [9] - A core challenge in the stablecoin market is the "impossible trinity," where achieving decentralization, price stability, and capital efficiency simultaneously is difficult [9] Group 4: Regulatory and Geopolitical Implications - Stablecoins, particularly fiat-backed ones, face risks related to centralization and trust in issuers, as demonstrated by the USDC crisis following the Silicon Valley Bank collapse [11] - The rise of stablecoins poses a threat to monetary sovereignty, especially in high-inflation countries where citizens prefer stablecoins over local currencies [12] - The U.S. has strategically mandated stablecoins to be pegged to the dollar, potentially positioning them as major holders of U.S. Treasury bonds by 2030 [12] Group 5: China's Strategic Response - China is exploring the issuance of offshore RMB stablecoins and has initiated the digital RMB project to maintain control over its monetary policy while leveraging blockchain efficiency [14] - A dual strategy of promoting both digital RMB and offshore stablecoins could enhance market applications and support international payment needs for SMEs [14]

前言 2025 年 11 月 09 日中国国家计算机病毒应急响应中心发布了一份技术分析报告，指责美国窃取130亿美元比特币。 这起事件被区块链情报公司追溯认定为史上最大规模加密货币盗窃案的事件。 那么这起盗窃案到底是怎么回事？130亿美元比特币从何而来？ 技术神话的脆弱基石 比特币一直标榜着自己坚不可摧的安全性，但现实给了理想主义者一记响亮的耳光。 2020年12月，鲁比安矿池这个全球第六大矿场，在黑客面前显得如此不堪一击。 超过12万枚比特币被轻而易举地窃取，而原因竟然是如此低级的错误。 矿池使用了存在严重缺陷的伪随机数生成器来创建钱包私钥，这个业余级别的失误，让黑客的破解变得轻而易举。 更有意思的是，矿池在事发后并没有放弃希望，他们向黑客的钱包发送了数百笔小额交易，每笔都嵌入了信息，试图与对方对话。 这些总额超过4万美元的消息，就像沉入大海的石头，没有激起任何涟漪。 被盗的比特币在链上静静地躺了四年，没有任何转移的迹象，这种不正常的静默本身就是一个巨大的信号。 区块链分析公司Elliptic的报告证实了这一点，这些资产从被盗到被美国查封，一直保持着诡异的静止。 当我们在赞叹区块链技术革命性的时候，不能忘记 ...

Core Viewpoint - The incident involving the theft of $13 billion in Bitcoin has escalated into a confrontation between China and the U.S. over digital asset ownership, highlighting the complexities of cybersecurity and international law [1][3]. Group 1: Incident Overview - On November 9, the Chinese National Computer Virus Emergency Response Center accused the U.S. of stealing $13 billion in Bitcoin, originally lost due to a technical vulnerability four years ago [1]. - The U.S. Department of Justice announced the seizure of 127,271 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $15 billion at the time, linked to a theft from a Chinese mining pool [3]. - The stolen Bitcoins had remained dormant for four years without any transfers until the U.S. authorities declared them "legally" confiscated [3][8]. Group 2: Accusations and Legal Framework - China accused the U.S. government of using hacking techniques to steal the assets, labeling it a "state-level hacking operation" [5]. - The U.S. maintained that the seizure was part of a legal investigation into a fraud and money laundering network involving a Cambodian businessman [5]. - There is a significant gap in the timeline regarding how the stolen Bitcoins transitioned from the original attackers to the wallet controlled by the Cambodian businessman, raising questions about the legitimacy of the U.S. actions [7][8]. Group 3: Analysis Framework - Analysts proposed a "three-role analysis" to dissect the incident: the attackers, the intermediary holder (the Cambodian businessman), and the law enforcement agency (U.S. DOJ) that executed the seizure [10]. - This framework helps clarify the complexities of the case, moving beyond the question of "who stole the coins" to understanding the implications of power dynamics in digital asset governance [12]. Group 4: Global Implications - The incident reflects a broader global struggle for digital enforcement rights, with other jurisdictions like Singapore and the EU taking steps to establish their frameworks for digital asset governance [14][16]. - The EU's recent legislation aims to create a multilateral framework for cross-border digital asset enforcement, contrasting with the U.S. approach [16][19]. - The differing responses from various countries indicate a potential reshaping of the power dynamics in the digital asset landscape [19]. Group 5: Future Considerations - The incident underscores the ongoing tension between technological ideals and the realities of power, suggesting that the notion of a decentralized digital asset landscape may be an illusion [21][25]. - Predictions indicate that over 15% of decentralized concept funds may shift towards seeking regulatory protection under compliant digital assets in the next two years [23]. - The need for a balanced digital order amidst power struggles is emphasized as a critical challenge for the future [25].