摘要10月10日，沪金主力暂报901.22元/克，跌幅达1.29%，今日沪金主力开盘价918.06元/克，截至目前 最高921.40元/克，最低898.06元/克。 10月10日，沪金主力暂报901.22元/克，跌幅达1.29%，今日沪金主力开盘价918.06元/克，截至目前最高 921.40元/克，最低898.06元/克。 【宏观消息】 在高利率环境和全球化重构的大背景下，黄金的定价机制正在由传统的以实际利率为核心向以央行购金 为核心，央行购金的行为是关键，背后是"去中心化"、避险需求的集中体现。特朗普的大而美法案顺利 通过，美国债务问题有望加重，导致美元的货币信用出现裂痕，在去美元化进程中黄金的去法币化属性 凸显。 在全球高利率环境下，黄金作为零息债对债券的替代效应减弱，对美债实际利率的敏感度下降。 地缘政治风险持续，市场避险需求仍在，成为阶段性推升黄金价格的重要因素。 中国实物金需求明显上升，央行从去年11月重启增持黄金，已连续增持十个月。 【机构观点】 目前来看，推升本轮金价上涨的逻辑没有完全逆转，美联储的利率政策和避险情绪可能是短期扰动因 素，美联储需兼顾就业和通胀双重指标，更加注重稳就业，今年9月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - 2 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Rebound [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Range oscillation [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Bean meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No.2: Oscillation with a downward bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slightly upward bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading logic of iron ore has increased uncertainty, with short - term support under supply - side interference. The follow - up focus is on the actual impact on the supply side and October steel demand [2]. - In October, the supply of coking coal in China is expected to run stably, with limited increase. Coke supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and its trend follows coking coal. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy [2]. - For rebar, the futures price has a low static valuation. The supply side may shrink, and the focus is on the demand recovery in October. The price needs to see rapid post - festival inventory reduction to stabilize [2]. - The glass market has short - term support from the replenishment market, but the demand is difficult to improve fundamentally. The supply - demand is basically balanced, and the follow - up should pay attention to production and policy changes [2]. - The stock index market is volatile, with an optimistic upward outlook. Stock index long positions should maintain the current position, while Treasury bond long positions should be held lightly [4]. - The logic for the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed. It is expected to show strong - biased oscillation, affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical risks [4][6]. - Logs are expected to oscillate in a range, with supply - side pressure not significant and an increase in daily outbound volume [6]. - Pulp prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom, affected by cost support and demand factors [6]. - The oil and fat market continues the range - oscillation pattern, with significant differentiation among varieties. Attention should be paid to Brazilian soybean sowing and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [6]. - Bean meal prices are expected to move downward in the short term, affected by supply and demand factors such as new soybean listings and changes in Chinese demand [6][7]. - Live pig prices are expected to oscillate slightly downward in the short term, with sufficient supply and weak downstream demand [7]. - Natural rubber prices may show wide - range oscillation, affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [9]. - The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are mainly affected by cost, supply, and demand factors, with different trends [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: During the long holiday, the Singapore Exchange iron ore swaps rose slightly. There are new concerns about supply, and the short - term supply - side interference provides support. The follow - up core is steel demand in October [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: In October, domestic coking coal supply is expected to be stable, with production lower than last year. Coke's first - round price increase was implemented, and the second - round basically failed. Coke supply - demand contradiction is not large, and it follows coking coal [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: During the long holiday, Tangshan billet prices were stable. Rebar futures have a low valuation, and the supply side may shrink. The focus is on demand recovery in October, and the price needs rapid post - festival de - stocking [2]. - **Glass**: Market sentiment was boosted by news, and prices rose. Supply was stable last week, and there was short - term support from replenishment. However, long - term demand is suppressed by the real estate adjustment [2]. - **Soda ash**: Although the report mentions it in the context, there is no specific in - depth analysis other than the overall "oscillation" rating [2]. Financial and Precious Metals - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market is volatile. The overall upward outlook is optimistic, and stock index long positions should maintain the current position [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates are volatile, and Treasury bond trends are weak. Treasury bond long positions should be held lightly [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing. The logic for the rise has not reversed, and it is expected to show strong - biased oscillation, affected by the Fed's policy and geopolitical risks [4][6]. Light Industry - **Logs**: Port daily shipment volume increased, and supply is expected to be tight. The cost support is enhanced, and it is expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - **Pulp**: Spot prices fluctuated. Cost support is enhanced, but demand improvement is uncertain. It is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Double - offset paper**: The spot price is stable. Production is relatively stable, and demand is expected to improve, but prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oil and Fats - **Soybean oil, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil**: The oil and fat market shows a wide - range oscillation pattern. There are differences among varieties, affected by factors such as Argentine exports, biodiesel, and seasonal production [6]. - **Bean meal, Rapeseed meal**: Although there is some support from US domestic demand, new soybean listings and Brazilian production potential bring supply pressure. Prices are expected to move downward [6][7]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight is declining, and supply is sufficient. Downstream demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate slightly downward [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyester - **Rubber**: Supply - side pressure in Yunnan has decreased, while Hainan's output is lower than expected. Demand has improved slightly, and inventory is decreasing. Prices may show wide - range oscillation [9]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: These products are mainly affected by cost, supply, and demand factors. Their prices show different trends such as oscillation, wait - and - see, etc. [9]

2025年10月5日，比特币冲上125,689美元，历史新高。市场炸了锅，有人喊"数字黄金登顶"，也有人冷 笑"又一轮泡沫"。但真正值得琢磨的，是这波涨势背后那些没人细看的逻辑。 这不是2021年那种散户疯抢、社交媒体带节奏的行情。这次，是机构真金白银在买。多只比特币现货 ETF连续几周净流入，资金不是赌一把就跑，而是稳稳扎进来的。渣打银行的Geoffrey Kendrick甚至 说，接下来几周可能冲13.5万。 为什么？因为宏观环境变了。美国政府又快关门了，预算僵局、债务上限、两党扯皮，老戏码重演。每 次这种时候，美元信用就会被短暂打个问号。不是说美元要崩，而是短期不确定性上升，聪明钱会找 点"不依赖政府"的东西对冲。比特币恰好符合：去中心化、总量固定、全球可转移。它未必是终极答 案，但在某些时刻，成了最顺手的工具。 这背后其实是信任机制的迁移。传统金融靠央行、靠法律、靠国家信用背书。但当债务高企、通胀顽 固、地缘冲突不断，这套系统的"信任成本"在上升。人们开始问：有没有另一种方式，不依赖某个中心 节点，也能实现价值存储和转移？比特币不一定完美，但它提供了一个选项，哪怕只是作为"压力测 试"下的备胎。 有意 ...

Core Viewpoint - The practicality and trust in digital currencies are questioned in the context of power outages, highlighting the differences between centralized and decentralized digital currencies [1]. Group 1: Centralized Digital Currencies - Centralized digital currencies, such as Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), are issued and managed by governments or financial institutions and rely on centralized servers and payment systems [3]. - In localized power outages, if the server area maintains power and payment terminals have backup power or offline payment capabilities, centralized digital currencies can still function [3]. - However, in widespread power outages affecting servers, transactions and usage of centralized digital currencies may face significant disruptions due to the inability to verify and record transactions [5]. Group 2: Decentralized Digital Currencies - Decentralized digital currencies, exemplified by Bitcoin, operate on blockchain technology, which is a distributed ledger maintained by numerous nodes [7]. - Theoretically, as long as some nodes remain operational, transactions can continue even in localized power outages, due to the decentralized nature of the blockchain [7]. - Practically, most users' devices may be inoperable due to power loss, and network connectivity could be compromised, hindering access to the blockchain for transactions [7]. - A large-scale power outage could incapacitate many nodes, leading to network congestion or reduced computational power, which would affect transaction confirmation speed and success rates [7]. Group 3: Merchant Acceptance and Practical Challenges - The acceptance of digital currencies by merchants is crucial; even if digital currencies can theoretically be used during power outages, transactions may fail if merchants' payment devices are non-functional or if they lack knowledge of offline usage [9]. - The ability to use digital currencies during power outages is contingent on various factors, including the type of digital currency, the extent of the power outage, backup power availability, and merchant acceptance [9]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Despite existing technical mechanisms, power outages can still pose challenges to the use of digital currencies [11]. - To enhance the practicality and stability of digital currencies, ongoing efforts in technology development, infrastructure improvement, and user education are necessary to ensure secure and convenient payment experiences in extreme conditions [11].

有网友说得好：现在这个局，实际上是把稳定币绑在了美元上，谁敢乱来，谁就得听美国的。而且，前几天还有评论指出，美国的这些动作，根本是为了保 护消费者，防止那些不负责任的稳定币公司出事。听起来好像是消费者保护的高大上理由，但掩盖的真相是什么？美国就是在要把全球货币体系牢牢控制在 自己的手里。 大家都知道，美元在全球贸易中的角色极其重要。美国这步棋走得不急不躁，先从稳定币入手，再慢慢推进数字货币的监管。如果这次成功，其他国家跟着 干的可能性大得很。你想想，全球最大的稳定币都得按照美国的规定来，你觉得其他国家能摆脱这个"数字霸权"吗？ 我问你，稳定币是不是已经成为了一个麻烦事儿？这不是随便说说，最近美国美联储理事沃勒刚刚给出强硬表态："稳定币得管起来，不让它乱搞。"说实 话，听到这话，我不禁有点反思，原来这背后究竟藏着什么门道？ 首先得提一下这个新法案——《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》。你可能没注意到，7月已经通过了，而特朗普也签字生效了。更不简单的是，稳定 币的监管不仅仅是说说而已，后面一系列的严格要求都跟银行管理差不多。发行稳定币的公司得拿到像银行一样的牌照，储备金要是美元、短期国债这类硬 资产，甚至每个月 ...

XBIT Wallet 9月29日讯，随着全球宏观经济格局迎来关键转折点，数字货币市场正站在历史性机遇的门 前。CME「美联储观察」最新数据显示，10月降息25个基点的概率已飙升至87.7%，而12月前累计降息 50个基点的概率更是高达65.4%。这一系列数据不仅勾勒出宽松货币政策的前景，更与Galaxy Digital首 席执行官Mike Novogratz的预言形成共振——若鸽派人物执掌美联储，比特币或将迎来史诗级牛市。在 此背景下，如何选择安全可靠的买币钱包已成为每位投资者的必修课。 私钥：数字主权的终极体现 理解买币钱包的核心在于认知私钥的本质。私钥本质上是一个256位的随机数，通过复杂算法生成对应 地址，成为区块链上资产所有权的唯一凭证。这个看似简单的技术概念，实则蕴含着去中心化哲学的精 髓——掌握私钥即掌握资产，丢失私钥即永久失去访问权。 货币政策转向与数字资产的新契机 美联储理事鲍曼近期关于资产负债表改革的表态，进一步强化了市场对金融体系重构的预期。她主 张"维持尽可能小的资产负债表"，并建议"积极出售抵押贷款支持证券"，这种政策取向与10月、12月连 续降息的高概率形成奇妙的政策组合。历史经验 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the dual perception of cryptocurrency, particularly Bitcoin, as both a revolutionary asset and a potential Ponzi scheme, highlighting the contrasting views on its value and legitimacy [1][2][31] - It emphasizes the historical context of financial systems and the failures of traditional currencies, using examples from China, Zimbabwe, and Russia to illustrate the dangers of inflation and loss of trust in government-backed currencies [4][5][6][8][9] - The emergence of Bitcoin is framed as a response to the 2008 financial crisis, where a loss of faith in traditional financial institutions led to the rise of decentralized currencies [10][11][31] Group 2 - The article outlines the technological foundations of cryptocurrency, including decentralization, distributed ledger technology, and blockchain, which collectively provide security and transparency [12][13][17][18] - It explains how Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins is encoded in its blockchain, creating a sense of scarcity and value that is enforced by code rather than trust in institutions [19][31] Group 3 - The article identifies significant risks associated with cryptocurrency, including extreme price volatility, prevalence of scams, and the complexity of technology that can alienate average investors [21][22][23] - It discusses the centralization of wealth within the cryptocurrency market, where a small number of early adopters hold significant power over market movements, often at the expense of new investors [24][31] Group 4 - The concept of smart contracts is introduced as a transformative application of blockchain technology, allowing for automated and trustless agreements, but also warns of the potential pitfalls and vulnerabilities associated with them [25][26][28] - The article concludes by reflecting on the dual nature of cryptocurrency as both a groundbreaking innovation and a potential trap for uninformed investors, urging a reevaluation of trust, freedom, and wealth in a digital age [31][35]

Core Points - Sun Yuchen, known for his unconventional path from winning a writing competition to becoming a major player in cryptocurrency, has invested $75 million in the Trump family-supported project World Liberty Financial (WLFI) [1] - His public image is polarizing, with supporters viewing him as a visionary entrepreneur and critics labeling him a speculator [3] - Sun's cryptocurrency narrative is characterized by evading regulation, starting with the establishment of TRON in 2017, which claims to offer a decentralized platform [4][5] Investment and Regulatory Context - TRON's fundraising occurred just days before a Chinese regulatory ban on token issuance, raising suspicions about Sun's foresight regarding regulatory changes [5] - The project faced accusations of plagiarism in its white paper, suggesting a lack of originality and transparency [5] - Sun's subsequent appointment as Grenada's ambassador to the WTO highlights a controversial shift in his career, leveraging Caribbean citizenship for political protection [6][7] Citizenship and Regulatory Evasion - Sun acquired citizenship from Saint Kitts and Nevis, known for its lax immigration policies, allowing for quick nationality acquisition [8][9] - This citizenship has been associated with facilitating money laundering, making it an attractive option for individuals seeking to evade regulatory scrutiny [9][10] - Sun's strategy involved obtaining multiple citizenships to create legal barriers against potential regulatory actions from stronger nations [12][13] Legal Challenges and Political Connections - The SEC filed a lawsuit against Sun and his companies for unregistered securities issuance and market manipulation, which he contested by claiming the actions were outside U.S. jurisdiction [18][19] - Following a significant investment in Trump-related projects, the SEC paused its civil fraud case against him, raising concerns about political influence in regulatory matters [21][22] - This situation reflects a broader trend of individuals seeking political connections to navigate legal challenges, showcasing the intersection of finance and politics [23] Broader Implications of Neoliberalism - Sun's story exemplifies the contradictions of neoliberal globalization, where market mechanisms often serve elite interests rather than the public good [25][26] - The commodification of citizenship, as seen in Caribbean nations selling citizenship, highlights the challenges to national sovereignty and regulatory frameworks [27] - Sun's narrative of decentralization in cryptocurrency is critiqued as a façade for centralization, undermining the principles of a truly decentralized economy [28][29] Conclusion - Sun Yuchen's trajectory from regulatory evasion to political maneuvering illustrates the inherent flaws in neoliberal ideologies, revealing a significant gap between the ideals of free markets and the realities of power dynamics [32][33]

XBIT Wallet作为专注USDC管理的专业钱包，其核心优势之一便是交易透明可追溯——所有USDC充 值、转账记录均通过区块链浏览器实时同步，用户可自主验证每一笔交易的哈希值与状态，即使面对可 逆性争议，也能快速定位资金流向，大幅降低纠纷处理难度。 这一构想一旦成真，将对加密货币的核心设计理念产生重大冲击，尤其是交易最终性(settlement finality) 这一原则。在传统金融体系(TradFi)中，消费纠纷可通过银行进行退款或撤销。Tarbert认为，若稳定币 也能实现类似的退款机制，将有助于推动其在主流市场的普及，特别是在消费性支出与国际交易方面。 然而，这与加密世界长期以来推崇的去中心化理念背道而驰。加密社群中的部分原教旨主义者强调，交 易一旦上链就应是不可更改的，任何形式的交易可逆性都意味着引入中心化仲裁机构，违背区块链的核 心精神。 稳定币如今已成为加密产业中的关键组成部分。它们通常与法币如美元挂钩，为用户提供避险工具，降 低比特币(BTC)、以太币(ETH)等高波动性资产的风险，还逐渐成为国际支出的一种选择。根据数据平 台CoinGecko，整体稳定币市场的总市值约为3,000亿美元。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar and rolled steel: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Rebounding [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebounding [4] - Gold: High - level oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Logs: Range - bound oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish outlook [6] - Edible oils: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] 2. Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][4]. - Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the US economic situation affect its price [4]. - Various factors such as supply - demand, policies, and seasonal factors impact the prices of commodities in different industries [2][5][6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Overseas supply decreased slightly but remained at a high level in recent years. Port arrivals increased, demand rebounded, and the 2601 contract adjusted at a high level [2]. - Coking coal and coke: As the double - festival replenishment period approaches, procurement enthusiasm increased. Supply may be weaker than last year, and the futures market rebounded [2]. - Rebar and rolled steel: Data met expectations, production increased slightly, demand was lackluster, and the 2601 contract oscillated with a bullish bias [2]. - Glass: Enterprises raised prices, short - term price increases may stimulate downstream replenishment, and demand improved slightly, but the long - term real estate adjustment continued [2]. Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: Different stock indices showed different trends, with some sectors having capital inflows and others outflows [2]. - Treasury bonds: Yields and market interest rates fluctuated, and the market was affected by factors such as central bank operations [4]. - Gold and silver: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and factors such as geopolitical risks, the US economic situation, and central bank gold purchases affect their prices [4]. Light Industry - Logs: Supply tightened, inventory decreased, cost support weakened, and prices were expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - Pulp: Spot prices were divided, cost support increased, but demand was weak, and prices were expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - Offset paper: Production was stable, demand was weak during the off - season, and the industry was bearish [6]. Oils and Fats - Oils: Palm oil inventory increased, production decreased due to disasters, and demand from India increased. Domestic oil supply was abundant, and prices were expected to oscillate widely [5]. - Meal: US soybean production increased, export demand was weak, and domestic supply was abundant, with prices expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Average transaction weight increased, supply was abundant, demand was weak, and prices were expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply pressure decreased in some areas, demand increased slightly, inventory decreased, and prices were expected to oscillate widely [10]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: PX had supply risks, PTA's cost support might weaken, and their prices followed cost fluctuations. MEG had supply pressure, and PR and PF were expected to trade flatly [10].