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Summary of Greater China Banks Daily - 12 December 2024 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the banking sector in Greater China, particularly the performance and outlook of various banks amidst macroeconomic conditions and regulatory changes. Key Points 1. **Market Performance**: - Since late October, the MSCI China index has seen a 13% correction, while the MSCI China banks index only declined by 1.4%. Year-to-date, China banks have rallied by 42%, outperforming the broader market which increased by 22% [7][11][37]. 2. **Investor Sentiment**: - Approximately 60-70% of investors surveyed were long-only investors, with a strong interest in the banking sector. Investors are closely monitoring macroeconomic developments and potential fiscal stimulus measures [7][11]. 3. **Monetary Policy Outlook**: - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has reiterated a stable yuan policy, despite reports suggesting a potential depreciation to 7.5 per dollar to boost exports. The PBOC cites improving economic fundamentals and increased foreign exchange settlements as reasons for stability [11][37]. 4. **Regulatory Changes**: - Wealth management companies are required to rectify self-built valuation models to comply with regulations, ensuring that net asset values reflect true underlying asset prices [12][37]. 5. **Cost-Saving Initiatives**: - HSBC is targeting US$3 billion in cost savings through global restructuring, representing a 10% reduction in expenses [13][37]. 6. **Valuation and Performance Metrics**: - The report includes a valuation summary for various banks, highlighting price targets, implied upside, and dividend yields. For instance, CMB (3968.HK) has a price target of 45.50 with a 19% implied upside and a 5.4% dividend yield [15][37]. 7. **Risks to the Banking Sector**: - Major risks identified include deterioration in asset quality due to a weaker macro environment, regulatory risks, and potential pressure on profitability from interest rate liberalization [37]. 8. **Future Outlook**: - The banking sector is expected to continue strong performance in the remainder of the year, supported by proactive policy measures. However, 2025 presents uncertainties, with expectations of moderate improvement in bank fundamentals [7][11]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and regulatory changes as they significantly impact the banking sector's performance and investor sentiment [7][11][37]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the Greater China Banks Daily, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the banking industry in the region.

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