30 October 2024 | 11:47PM HKT 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 Innovent Biologics (1801.HK): Tyvyt-led 3Q beat with eyes on next wave of approvals 3Q sales beat with strong momentum maintained: Innovent reported 3Q24 product revenue to exceed Rmb2.3bn (vs. GSe of c.Rmb2bn, +40% y/y, c.15% q/q), maintaining its strong sales performance in the past few quarters (average teens growth q/q since 1Q23) amid the lingering industry-wide anti-corruption disruptions. With accelerated qoq growth, Tyvyt became the majo ...

Action | 30 Oct 2024 00:52:42 ET │ 10 pages Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SS) Adding Downside 90-Day Catalyst Watch View original report on this Catalyst Watch | --- | --- | |------------|--------------------------------------| | | | | Direction: | Downside | | Duration: | Within 90 Days (expires 29 Jan 2025) | | Catalyst: | Earnings | We open a 90-Day downside catalyst watch on Hengli as we are concerned that the market may not be fully aware that 4Q24 could still be a weak quarter after weakerthan-expected 3Q2 ...

31 October 2024 | 10:14PM HKT 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 Key numbers: Main points: Bottom line: The preliminary reading of 2024 Q3 Hong Kong GDP growth came in at +1.8% yoy, significantly below consensus expectations. In quarter-over-quarter seasonally-adjusted non-annualized terms, real GDP fell by 1.1% in Q3 2024 (vs. +0.3% in Q2 2024). The moderation of year-over-year growth is primarily due to a larger goods trade deficit in Q3, driven by slowed goods export growth. Looking ahead, goods export gro ...

29 October 2024 | 10:01PM HKT 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | Global Tech Server TAM: Introducing rack-level AI server forecasts | | | Post the launch of our global server TAM estimates in Oct 2023 (report link), to better cap ...

Summary of Global FX Strategy - 31 October 2024 Company and Industry Involved - **Company**: Citigroup Global Markets Inc. - **Industry**: Foreign Exchange (FX) Strategy Key Points and Arguments 1. **Exit of AUDNZD Short Position**: Citigroup has exited its tactical AUDNZD short position for no gain, with a spot reference of 1.1011 as of 10/31. The short was initiated at 1.1010 on 10/28 due to hawkish RBA pricing and stretched positioning, which created attractive asymmetry for AUDNZD downside [1][4][5] 2. **Market Conditions**: Despite the unwinding of leveraged AUD longs, the AUDNZD pair has remained within a tight range, influenced by stickier real money longs. The exit was timed ahead of key event risks including RBA announcements, NZ Jobs data, and the US election [1][5][6] 3. **Positioning Insights**: The report highlights that AUD leveraged longs have steeply unwound, while real money longs have remained persistent. This indicates a shift in market sentiment and positioning ahead of significant economic events [5][6] 4. **CPI and RBA Expectations**: Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) details were strong enough to avoid dovish repricing by the RBA, although Australian rates have been affected by a recent global selloff. This suggests that inflationary pressures may influence future monetary policy decisions [5][6] 5. **Strategic Flexibility**: The decision to exit the position allows Citigroup to maintain flexibility to act on developing opportunities in a noisy market environment over the coming days [1][4][5] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Analyst Certification and Disclosures**: The report includes important disclosures regarding potential conflicts of interest, as Citigroup may have business relationships with companies covered in its research reports. Investors are advised to consider this when making investment decisions [2][7][8] 2. **Market Sentiment Indicators**: The report provides insights into market sentiment through positioning data, which can be critical for understanding potential market movements and making informed trading decisions [5][6] 3. **Global Economic Context**: The report situates the AUDNZD strategy within a broader global economic context, indicating that external factors such as the US election and global market trends are influencing local currency movements [1][5][6] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and strategic decisions made by Citigroup regarding the AUDNZD currency pair, reflecting both market conditions and broader economic influences.

Summary of Bloomage Biotechnology Corp. (688363.SS) 3Q24 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Bloomage Biotechnology Corp. (688363.SS) - **Industry**: Biotechnology, specifically focusing on skincare and medical devices Key Financial Highlights - **3Q24 Net Profit**: Declined by 77% year-over-year (yoy) to RMB 20.3 million, missing consensus estimates by 80% and 84% [2][16] - **3Q24 Sales**: Fell by 7.1% yoy to RMB 1,064 million, which was 12% lower than Goldman Sachs estimates [8][9] - **Operating Profit**: Decreased by 80.9% yoy to RMB 14 million, significantly below estimates [8][15] - **Gross Margin**: Increased by 1.2 percentage points yoy to 72.4%, but was slightly below estimates [12] Segment Performance - **Functional Skincare**: Contributed approximately 36% to revenue, declining by 22% yoy [11] - **Medical Devices**: Contributed about 28% to revenue, showing a growth of 10% yoy, primarily driven by medical aesthetics [11] - **Raw Materials**: Also contributed around 28% to revenue, with a slight decline of 2% yoy [11] Management Insights 1. **Recovery Outlook**: Management expects improvement in the skincare business starting from 4Q24, attributing 3Q24's weakness to ongoing transformation efforts [4] 2. **New Product Launches**: Two key products for the Double 11 shopping festival were introduced: Biohyalux Facial Cream and QuadHA Skin Dynamic Youth Cream [4][22] 3. **Medical Aesthetics**: Management targets RMB 400-500 million in sales from a new injectable HA filler for neck wrinkles within 1-3 years [4][21] 4. **Raw Materials Growth**: The company aims for over RMB 100 million in sales from sterile-grade HA and ergothioneine within three years [4][20] Cost Management - **Selling Expenses**: Decreased by 13% yoy to RMB 452 million, with a selling expenses to sales ratio declining by 3.1 percentage points [13] - **Administrative Expenses**: Increased by 55% yoy to RMB 176 million, primarily due to one-off restructuring costs [14] - **R&D Expenses**: Rose by 25% yoy to RMB 113 million, reflecting increased investment in innovation [14] Market Position and Risks - **Market Performance**: Despite a recent positive trend in gross merchandise value (GMV) during the Double 11 period, Bloomage ranked last among local brands, indicating challenges in achieving a turnaround [5] - **Investment Rating**: Goldman Sachs maintains a "Sell" rating on Bloomage with a target price of RMB 50, reflecting concerns over the company's recovery trajectory [23][25] Conclusion Bloomage Biotechnology Corp. is currently facing significant challenges in its functional skincare segment, with a notable decline in sales and profits. However, management is optimistic about future recovery driven by strategic transformations and new product launches. The company is also focusing on cost management to improve profitability. Investors should remain cautious due to the ongoing risks and the company's current market position.

Summary of the China Cement Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Cement Industry in China**, particularly the **2024 Cement Industry Capacity Replacement Regulations** issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) [1][2]. Key Points from the 2024 Regulations 1. **Stricter Capacity Replacement Criteria**: - The 2024 Edition tightens the definition of idle capacity, stating that cement clinker production lines operating less than 90 days per year for two consecutive years are ineligible for replacement [2]. 2. **Pollution Control Measures**: - A strict ban on new cement clinker capacity in key pollution regions is introduced, along with prohibitions on cross-province capacity replacements unless specific conditions are met [4]. 3. **Refined Replacement Standards**: - The new regulations provide specific standards for different replacement contexts, allowing a 1:1 replacement ratio for intra-company or intra-city relocations [5]. 4. **Simplified Approval Process**: - The approval process for capacity transfers within the same corporate group or pollution-control key regions is streamlined, waiving the need for approval from the original location's industry authority [6]. 5. **Enhanced Energy Efficiency Standards**: - Replacement capacities must meet current national energy efficiency benchmarks, excluding lower-efficiency capacities from replacement [7]. 6. **Increased Replacement Ratios**: - The replacement ratio requirement in key pollution-control regions is raised to at least 2:1, and in non-key areas to 1.5:1, compared to the previous standard of 1.25:1 [8]. Company Insights - **Anhui Conch Cement (0914.HK)**: - Target price set at HK$22 based on a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.55x for 2024, reflecting a downcycle in cement demand due to a slump in property demand [9]. - Risks include a slowdown in property growth, unexpected new cement capacity additions, and rising coal prices [10]. - **China National Building Material (3323.HK)**: - Target price set at HK$4.0 based on a 2025 earnings-based valuation, with expectations for the stock to trade towards its A-share subsidiary Tianshan Cement after re-listing [11]. - Risks include weaker-than-expected cement demand and prices, and higher-than-expected capacity additions [12]. - **China Resources Building Materials Technology Holdings (1313.HK)**: - Target price set at HK$2/share based on a P/B ratio of 0.29x for 2024, with ROE forecasts lower than historical averages [13]. - Risks include weaker cement prices and profits, higher production costs, and a weaker macro economy [14]. Investment Recommendations - The analysis maintains a **Buy** rating on **Anhui Conch**, **China National Building Material**, and **CR Cement**, indicating a preference for cement companies over steel in the near term [1]. Additional Considerations - The revised regulations aim to align the cement industry with carbon reduction goals, promoting a greener and more efficient industry [1]. - The call highlighted the potential for further policies to curb cement supply, indicating a proactive approach to managing industry capacity and environmental impact [1].

Flash | 31 Oct 2024 11:39:10 ET │ 10 pages China Auto Manufacturers Weekly EV/ICE Retail Sales Update (21-27 Oct, with 100% sector samples) CITI'S TAKE Weekly sales (NEV & ICE) beat: Weekly sales data suggests (21-27 Oct) full EV sector at 6% WoW (slightly ahead our forecast) with MTD MoM at 7%. If we assume 7% WoW momentum lasts until final week Oct, Oct full month EV sales should be 1.175mn units (6.3% MoM) and ahead consensus' 0-4% MoM expectation. Among different energy type, ICE MTD MoM at 10%, BEV at ...

31 Oct 2024 10:20:09 ET │ 8 pages China Materials 2024 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #125– Funding Availability Rate Data Tracker CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency, onground demand trends in China – market expectation of demand recovery has been mostly cautious. We have shifted our near-term pecking order to Gold, Cement, Coal, Copper, Aluminum and Steel stocks (see our note: China Materials – 2024 Strategy: Diverging Demand, Selective Winners, China Materials ...

Action | 31 Oct 2024 12:03:43 ET │ 10 pages Aluminum Corporation of China (601600.SS) Removing Upside 30-Day Catalyst Watch View original report on this Catalyst Watch We believe the miss in 3Q24 results could lead to short-term profit-taking pressure on the stock, and thus remove the positive catalyst watch. | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|------------------------| | | | | Buy | | | Price (31 Oct 24 15:00) | Rmb7.630 | | Target price | Rmb10.960 | | Expected share price return | 43.6% | | | | ...