立讯精密-苹果人工智能动能强劲,推动长期增长;目标价上调至 78 元人民币;买入-Stronger Apple momentum with AI to fuel long-term growth; lift PO to CNY78; Buy
2025-11-07 01:28
Summary of Luxshare (A) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Luxshare - **Sector**: Technology - **Key Customers**: Apple, Google, Microsoft, HP, Dell, Lenovo - **Sales Breakdown**: 80% consumer segment, 9% communication, 6% automotive, 3% computing [12][13] Key Industry Insights - **iPhone Demand**: Luxshare is a key assembler for iPhone 17/Pro Max models, with expected shipments of 239 million, 250 million, and 258 million units in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, surpassing the previous high of 238 million units in 2021 [2][32][33] - **AI Server Growth**: Luxshare is a significant supplier for AI-related projects, benefiting from the build-up of AI datacenters in China and partnerships with global tech giants like Google, Cisco, and Microsoft [3][12] Financial Performance - **Earnings Growth**: Luxshare's earnings are projected to grow at a CAGR of over 25% from 2024 to 2027, driven by the iPhone upcycle and increasing contributions from automotive and communication sectors [13][18] - **Recent Earnings**: In Q3 2025, Luxshare reported earnings of CNY 4.8 billion, a 35% QoQ and 32% YoY increase, exceeding guidance [29][30] - **Q4 Guidance**: Expected earnings for Q4 2025 are projected to be between CNY 5.0 billion and CNY 5.7 billion, indicating a 9% QoQ and 24% YoY growth [31] Valuation and Price Target - **Price Objective**: Raised from CNY 50 to CNY 78, reflecting a P/E ratio of 24x for 2H26-1H27E, aligning with historical averages [1][14] - **Current Share Price**: CNY 63.00, with a market cap of CNY 457.24 billion [7] - **P/E Comparison**: Luxshare trades at 20x 2026-27E average P/E, below the Apple supply chain's 24x and AI server peers' 24-26x [25][29] Key Financial Metrics - **Net Income Projections**: - 2025E: CNY 16.88 billion - 2026E: CNY 21.29 billion - 2027E: CNY 27.55 billion [4][20] - **EPS Growth**: Expected to increase from CNY 2.33 in 2025 to CNY 3.80 in 2027, with a YoY growth rate of 25.9% in 2025 and 29.4% in 2027 [4][20] - **Free Cash Flow**: Projected to rise from CNY 4.33 billion in 2025 to CNY 30.19 billion in 2027 [4] Strategic Outlook - **AI and Technology Integration**: Luxshare's collaboration with OpenAI and other tech giants positions it well for future growth in the AI sector, with potential projects expected to materialize by 2027 [3] - **Market Positioning**: The company is expected to benefit from a stronger execution strategy compared to peers, enhancing its ability to capitalize on opportunities in the AI era [15] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: The company maintains a "Buy" rating, supported by strong earnings growth, strategic positioning in the iPhone supply chain, and expanding opportunities in AI and technology sectors [1][13]
华大九天-EDA 工具覆盖全流程;第三季度营收环比增长;买入
2025-11-07 01:28
Summary of Empyrean's Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Empyrean (301269.SZ) - **Industry**: Electronic Design Automation (EDA) tools Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Revenues**: Rmb303 million, representing a **13% QoQ increase** and **1% YoY increase** but **24% below estimates** due to slower revenue recognition and order ramp-up [1][3] - **Gross Margin**: Improved to **92.8%** from **87.1%** in 2Q25 [3] - **Net Income**: Reported at Rmb6 million, significantly below estimates due to lower revenues and higher operating expenses [3][4] - **Operating Income**: Loss of Rmb6 million, attributed to continuous R&D spending [3][4] Product Development and Strategy - **New Product Launches**: - **Empyrean Liberal Mem**: A feature extraction tool for memory clients aimed at improving efficiency in large-scale memory design [2] - **Empyrean Aether**: A new generation one-stop platform supporting various design types, offering over **12,000 Python API interfaces** for data processing [2] - **Focus on Full-Flow EDA Tools**: The company is expanding its product pipeline to cover full-flow digital design EDA tools and foundry EDA, responding to rising localization demand [1][2] Earnings Revisions - **Earnings Downgrade**: - Revised down earnings by **48%** for 2025, **10%** for 2026, and **11%** for 2027 mainly due to lower revenues from analog design and panel EDA tools [7] - Gross margin revisions range from **0.3 to 1.2 percentage points** lower for 2025-2027 [7] Valuation and Price Target - **Target Price**: Rmb155, based on a **47x multiple** applied to 2029E EPS, discounted back to 2026E at a cost of equity of **11.5%** [12][15] - **Market Cap**: Rmb52.7 billion (approximately $7.4 billion) [15] Risks and Challenges - **Key Risks**: - Slower customer acquisition and spending - Increased competition in the EDA market - Labor cost increases and talent shortages - Escalation of US-China tech tensions [13] Conclusion - Despite the recent earnings miss and challenges, Empyrean is positioned as a local EDA leader with a strong product pipeline and a positive outlook on localization demand. The company maintains a **Buy** rating with a revised target price of Rmb155, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth potential [1][12].
隆基绿能_2025 年第三季度亏损收窄,HPBC 出货量提升
2025-11-07 01:28
Summary of Longi Green Energy Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Longi Green Energy Technology - **Industry**: Solar Energy, specifically focusing on monocrystalline wafer manufacturing and solar module production - **Market Cap**: Rmb160 billion (approximately US$22.5 billion) as of October 31, 2025 [7] Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Performance**: - Net loss narrowed to Rmb834 million, a 26% improvement QoQ [2] - 9M25 net loss totaled Rmb3.4 billion [2] - Gross Profit Margin (GPM) improved by 3.3 percentage points to 5% in 3Q25 [2] - Operating cash flow improved to Rmb1.8 billion in 9M25, a significant turnaround from a cash outflow of Rmb8 billion in 9M24 [2] - Impairment loss recorded at Rmb0.8 billion in 3Q25 [2] - Selling and management expenses decreased by 29% YoY due to effective cost control [2] Shipment and Production Insights - **Wafer Shipments**: Totaled 29-30 GW in 3Q25, with unit net profit recovering to breakeven [3] - **Module Shipments**: Reached 20 GW with an estimated unit loss of Rmb0.04/W [3] - **HPBC 2.0 Shipments**: Increased to 5.8 GW in 3Q25 from 2 GW in 2Q25, indicating a ramp-up in production [3] Technology and Market Position - **HPBC Technology**: - Expected to yield a 10% margin premium over Topcon once in mass production [4] - Longi aims for a 50% BC shipment mix by 2026, up from 20% in 1H25 [4] - **Industry Dynamics**: Anticipated policy tailwinds to curb overcapacity in the solar supply chain, including pricing controls and stricter technology standards [4] Valuation and Earnings Forecast - **Price Target**: Raised from Rmb20.2 to Rmb25.3 based on DCF methodology [5] - **Earnings Forecasts**: - 2025-27E EPS cut by 2-3% but lifted by 12-14% from 2028E onwards [5] - Expected ROE improvement from -7% in 2025E to 5-9% in 2026-27E [5] - **Current Valuation Metrics**: - P/B ratio at 2.3x, which is 1 standard deviation below historical average [5] Risks and Catalysts - **Risks**: - Slowing global solar demand and intense price competition [16] - **Catalysts**: - Positive policy developments expected to regulate pricing and production [18] Additional Insights - **Cash Position**: Longi maintains a strong net cash position of Rmb26.8 billion, providing a buffer during market downturns [9] - **Market Position**: Longi is well-positioned among peers due to its cost advantages and technology leadership, especially in the context of industry consolidation [11] Conclusion Longi Green Energy Technology is showing signs of recovery with improved cash flow and narrowing losses. The company's focus on high-margin HPBC technology and strong cash reserves position it favorably in the competitive solar energy market. The raised price target reflects optimism about future earnings potential, despite existing risks in the industry.
新易盛-风险收益更新
2025-11-07 01:28
Summary of Eoptolink Technology Inc Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Eoptolink Technology Inc Ltd (300502.SZ) - **Industry**: Greater China Technology Hardware - **Current Stock Price**: Rmb346.76 (as of November 3, 2025) - **Price Target**: Rmb255.00 - **Stock Rating**: Underweight Key Financial Metrics - **Earnings Growth**: - 2Q25: 338% YoY - 3Q25: 205% YoY - **Earnings Estimates**: - 2025: EPS lowered by 3.5% to Rmb9.72 - 2026: EPS estimate remains at Rmb18.77 - 2027: EPS estimate remains at Rmb25.43 - **Revenue Estimates**: - 2025: Rmb27,165.7 million (Morgan Stanley estimate) - 2025 Net Income: Rmb10,352.5 million Core Insights - **Earnings Deceleration**: The significant drop in earnings growth from 338% in 2Q25 to 205% in 3Q25 indicates a trend of deceleration that is expected to continue into future quarters [3][13][18] - **Market Position**: Eoptolink has gained significant market share and achieved substantial earnings growth in 2Q25, but the growth rate is anticipated to slow down, potentially leading to a de-rating of the stock [13][18] - **Valuation Concerns**: The stock is currently trading at a forward P/E of 20x, which is above the +1 standard deviation level, suggesting limited upside potential given the current consensus already positions Eoptolink as a leading player in the market [14] Investment Drivers - **AI Demand Surge**: Anticipated increased demand for AI technologies is expected to significantly alter the demand landscape in 2025-26 [13] - **Transceiver Demand**: Stronger demand for 800G and 1.6T transceivers is projected to be a key catalyst for Eoptolink's growth in 2025 [17][18] - **Global Revenue Exposure**: The company has a diverse revenue exposure with significant contributions from North America and Mainland China [22][23] Risks to Price Target / Rating - **Competition**: Intense competition from silicon photonics players could impact market share, margins, and average selling prices (ASPs) [20] - **Order Demand**: Weaker-than-expected demand for 800G and 1.6T products could further pressure the company's performance [25] - **Geopolitical Tensions**: Slower-than-expected share gains in the datacom market due to geopolitical issues could pose additional risks [25] Additional Insights - **Historical Performance**: The stock has shown significant volatility, with a 52-week range of Rmb433.33 to Rmb46.89, indicating potential for both gains and losses [5] - **Long-term Growth Rate**: A long-term growth rate of 3.5% is applied in the valuation model, reflecting a conservative outlook [9] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Eoptolink Technology Inc Ltd, highlighting the company's financial performance, market position, investment drivers, and associated risks.
全球机械_ 旧周期,新故事_ 人工智能与自动化 机器人如何推动全球机械板块估值重估-Global Machinery_ Old cycle, new story_ How AI and automation_robotics are driving a global machinery re-rating
2025-11-07 01:28
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The global machinery sector is undergoing a significant re-rating due to the increasing recognition of traditional cyclical companies for their exposure to structural growth drivers such as automation, AIDC (Automatic Identification and Data Capture), digitalization, and the adoption of autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) [2][9][10] - The MSCI World Industrials Index has shown strong year-to-date performance, with major stocks outperforming, indicating a positive shift in investor sentiment towards the machinery sector [2][36] Core Companies Discussed - **Caterpillar (CAT)**: Positioned to benefit from cyclical upturns in construction and infrastructure activity, particularly in North America. The company reported a 30%+ year-over-year surge in power generation sales to AI data center developers [11][23] - **Weichai**: Noted for its leadership in AIDC back-up engines and robotics through Kion. The company is expected to see substantial growth in its data center power generator sales, with projections indicating a rise from Rmb0.8 billion in 2024 to approximately Rmb13 billion by 2028 [12][14] - **Hengli Hydraulic**: Focused on factory automation and robotics, with investments in proprietary components. The company is expected to benefit from the next wave of automation-driven growth [20][21] - **Sany and XCMG**: Both companies are experiencing robust demand trends, with Sany emphasizing high-quality growth and XCMG reporting significant revenue increases in core segments [25][36] Key Growth Drivers - The demand for AIDC and data center power generation is projected to grow significantly, with an estimated total addressable market exceeding $100 billion between 2026 and 2028 [11] - The Chinese data center diesel generator market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 51% year-over-year, with domestic brands gaining market share [13][17] - Automation, digitalization, and AMRs are central to the growth strategies of companies like Kion, which is focusing on modernization and upgrade projects in logistics and manufacturing [19] Market Dynamics - The machinery cycle is improving, with signs of recovery in both China and global markets. China is forecasted to deliver approximately 12% year-over-year growth in 2025, while North America is expected to see a decline followed by a return to growth [22][23] - Margin expansion is a key theme across the sector, driven by a focus on high-quality growth, cost optimization, and digital transformation initiatives [33][35] Investment Outlook - The report maintains an Overweight rating on several companies, including Caterpillar, Kion, Weichai, Hengli Hydraulic, Sany, and XCMG, indicating a bullish outlook for the sector [2][36] - Despite strong sector performance, Weichai's stock is viewed as undervalued, with expectations for a catch-up as the market recognizes its structural growth drivers [37] Conclusion - The global machinery sector is positioned for long-term growth driven by automation and digitalization, with key players like Caterpillar, Weichai, Hengli, Sany, and XCMG leading the charge. The evolving market dynamics and improving machinery cycle present significant investment opportunities [2][10][36]
绿的谐波-2025 年第三季度业绩简报要点_乘人形机器人东风
2025-11-07 01:28
Summary of Leader Harmonious Drive Systems 3Q25 Earnings Briefing Company Overview - **Company**: Leader Harmonious Drive Systems - **Industry**: Industrial Robotics and Automation - **Date of Briefing**: November 3, 2025 Key Points Market Position and Growth - Leaderdrive is gaining market share despite a decline in industry profitability, with large orders from two of the global big four industrial robot makers [2] - The company claims a significant share in the humanoid robotics market and anticipates continued fast growth into 2026, driven by demand from leading humanoid integrators [2][4] - Humanoid products currently account for 15-20% of production, with expectations for further increases in 2026 [9] Product Development and Innovation - Leaderdrive has developed self-machining tools that allow for P0 precision level screws, with ongoing optimization for miniature harmonic reducers [3] - Management believes harmonic reducers are the best solution for humanoids due to their size, precision, and output, with no significant client demand for alternative solutions [4] - The company is confident in the performance of miniature harmonic reducers for dexterous hands, despite their high cost [4] Financial Performance - The company reported margin expansion in 3Q25, supported by scale, improved product structure, and new applications with higher prices [9] - Revenue projections for the fiscal years ending in 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are Rmb387 million, Rmb535 million, Rmb691 million, and Rmb861 million respectively [8] - EBITDA is expected to grow from Rmb113 million in 2024 to Rmb242 million in 2027 [8] Capacity and Production - Harmonic reducer annual capacity is projected to ramp up to 1 million units by the end of 2025 [9] - Traditional applications are expected to grow by 10-20% in 2026, with opportunities for market share gains [9] Valuation and Risks - The base case valuation uses a DCF model for humanoid reducer and planetary roller screw segments, estimating a segment value of Rmb114 per share [10] - Risks to upside include stronger-than-expected robot demand and faster humanoid robot adoption, while risks to downside include slower-than-expected humanoid development [12] Stock Performance - As of November 3, 2025, the stock price was Rmb159.50, with a price target of Rmb153.00, indicating a potential downside of 4% [8] Additional Insights - The company is viewed as a leading producer of harmonic reducers in China, with ongoing development in humanoid hardware solutions [4] - Management expects price and margin to gradually decline and then stabilize as production volumes increase [9]
中国中免_免税政策利好驱动消费
2025-11-07 01:28
Summary of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp. (CTGDF) - **Ticker**: 601888.SS (A-shares), 1880.HK (H-shares) - **Market Position**: Largest travel retail operator globally with approximately 80% market share in China's duty-free industry [26][27] Key Industry Insights - **Favorable Duty-Free Policies**: New policies effective from November 1, 2025, aim to boost consumption and recapture overseas spending onshore. Key measures include: - Tax refund/exemption for domestic products - Expansion of product categories in duty-free stores - Support for online reservations and pick-up services at duty-free stores [2][9][11] - **Hainan Free Trade Port**: Expected to enhance growth prospects starting December 18, 2025, with independent customs operations and favorable policies [2][9] Financial Performance - **3Q25 Results**: - Revenue showed a sequential improvement with a year-over-year decline narrowing to -0.4% - Earnings decreased by 29% year-over-year primarily due to lower gross margins and increased SG&A expenses [1] - Gross Profit Margin (GPM) slightly declined to 29.8% due to a higher sales mix of lower-margin mobile phones [3] - **Sales Trends**: - Hainan offshore duty-free sales increased by 3.4% in September and 13.6% during the Golden Week (October 1-8) [1] - Anticipated positive growth trajectory into the peak season due to improved execution and recovery in outbound travel [1] Strategic Initiatives - **Margin Improvement**: Management aims to enhance margins through product mix optimization, store efficiency improvements, and cost reductions [3] - **Inventory Management**: Increased inventory levels in 3Q25 to prepare for the peak season, particularly in cosmetics, while maintaining healthy inventory levels [3] Shareholder Returns - **Dividend Announcement**: The company declared its first interim dividend of RMB 517 million, representing a 17% payout ratio based on 9M25 net profit, with plans to maintain a high payout ratio [1] Valuation and Recommendations - **Target Price**: DCF-based target price set at RMB 78.00, reflecting the long-term growth potential of the duty-free business [28] - **Investment Rating**: Buy rating maintained for CTGDF, supported by structural growth in the duty-free industry and expected benefits from favorable policies and market dynamics [27] Additional Insights - **Product Diversification**: The expansion of product categories in duty-free stores is expected to cater to varying consumer preferences and enhance sales [2][11] - **Operational Efficiency**: Focus on digitalization and cost control measures to improve overall operational efficiency and profitability [3] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and financial performance of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp. as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic initiatives and market outlook.
中际旭创_ 风险收益更新
2025-11-07 01:28
Summary of Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd - **Ticker**: 300308.SZ - **Industry**: Greater China Technology Hardware - **Current Stock Price (as of October 31, 2025)**: Rmb473.01 - **Price Target**: Rmb500.00 Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **Earnings Estimates**: Earnings estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards by 2.1%, 2.7%, and 1.1% respectively, following positive 3Q25 results [2][4][12] - **EPS Projections**: EPS for 2025 is projected at Rmb19.5, up from a prior estimate of Rmb18.9 [4][21] - **Revenue Growth**: Expected robust earnings growth driven by demand for 800G and 1.6T transceivers in 2025-2026 [12][13][14] Market Position and Strategy - **Product Innovation**: The company is a pioneer in new 1.6T products, which are expected to significantly boost revenue [8][14] - **Market Share Gains**: Anticipated faster-than-expected growth and market share gains due to strong demand for 800G and 1.6T products [12][14] - **Cost Management**: Potential for cost control through internal operational management, which could enhance profitability [22][23] Risks and Challenges - **Competition**: Intense competition in the market could lead to lower market share, margins, and average selling prices (ASPs) [17] - **Demand Fluctuations**: Risks associated with weaker-than-expected orders for 800G and 1.6T products could negatively impact financial performance [17] - **Geopolitical Issues**: Potential supply chain disruptions due to geopolitical tensions could affect operations [23] Investment Thesis - **Overweight Rating**: The stock is rated as Overweight, indicating expected performance to exceed the average total return of the industry [4][16] - **Positive Momentum**: Continued positive momentum is anticipated in the coming quarters following solid earnings growth in 1H25 [14] Additional Insights - **Revenue Exposure**: The company has significant revenue exposure to North America (60-70%) and Mainland China (10-20%) [22] - **Long-term Growth Rate**: A long-term growth rate of 3.5% is applied in valuation models, with a net profit CAGR of 19% from 2025-2035 [8] Conclusion Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd is positioned for strong growth driven by innovative products and increasing demand in the technology hardware sector. However, the company faces risks from competition and potential market fluctuations. The revised price target reflects confidence in the company's ability to capitalize on emerging opportunities while managing operational challenges.
先导智能-ASSB 与储能业务支撑强劲订单_重申买入,目标价上调至 70 元人民币
2025-11-07 01:28
Summary of Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment (Ticker: 300450.SZ) - **Industry**: Capital Goods, specifically focused on automation equipment for lithium batteries, photovoltaic cells, consumer electronics, and film capacitors [12][26] Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Results**: - Earnings increased by 199% year-on-year (y-y) to CNY 446 million - Revenue grew by 14% y-y to CNY 3.8 billion - Gross Profit Margin (GPM) contracted by 5.7 percentage points (pp) y-y to 30.9% due to low-margin battery equipment orders recognized from FY24 [1][15] - **Order Intake**: - Strong order momentum with 9M25 new orders exceeding the full-year level for FY24 (CNY 17.5 billion) [1] - Management expects a recovery in GPM in 4Q25, driven by the recognition of higher-margin orders [1] Future Outlook - **FY26 Forecast**: - Positive outlook supported by demand for all-solid-state battery (ASSB) commercialization and energy storage system (ESS) capacity expansion [2] - Anticipated incremental orders for ASSB equipment from domestic manufacturers in 2H25 and FY26 [2] - Expected solid demand for battery equipment in FY26 due to supply shortages of ESS battery cells in China [2] Valuation and Target Price - **Target Price**: Increased from CNY 41 to CNY 70, based on a P/E ratio of 45x FY26F EPS of CNY 1.55 [3][5] - **Earnings Growth**: FY26-27F earnings expected to increase by 10-12% [3] - **Current Stock Valuation**: Trading at 35x FY26F P/E [3] Financial Projections - **Revenue Projections**: - FY25F: CNY 14.49 billion (new estimate) - FY26F: CNY 18.85 billion (new estimate) - FY27F: CNY 20.90 billion (new estimate) [4][16] - **Net Profit Projections**: - FY25F: CNY 1.67 billion - FY26F: CNY 2.42 billion - FY27F: CNY 2.76 billion [4][16] Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: - Lower-than-expected orders from battery cell makers - Higher-than-expected bad debt provisions in the solar sector - Lower-than-expected commercialization of ASSBs [13][17] Additional Insights - **Market Performance**: The stock has shown a 205.3% increase over the past 12 months, despite a recent decline of 11.9% over the last month [9] - **ESG Considerations**: The company is viewed as ESG-friendly due to its role as an equipment supplier in the EV and solar sectors [14] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the company's financial performance, future outlook, valuation, and associated risks.
宁沪高速-基本面扎实且收益率具吸引力;2025 年第三季度简报要点
2025-11-07 01:28
Summary of Jiangsu Expressway - H/A Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jiangsu Expressway - **Ticker**: 177 HK (H shares), 600377 CH (A shares) - **Market Cap**: $6.133 billion (H shares), $9.658 billion (A shares) [4][27] Key Industry Insights - **Sector**: Infrastructure, Industrials & Transport - **Performance**: Jiangsu Expressway has shown solid operational performance and cost efficiencies in 3Q25, supporting a positive outlook [2][12] - **Market Context**: H shares have declined by 5% and A shares by 15% since June, while the CSI300 index gained 11%, attributed to fund rotation into growth names [2] Financial Performance - **3Q25 Results**: - Revenue growth of 6.6% year-over-year (Y/Y) for Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway, driven by a 12% increase in truck traffic [6] - Cost of revenue decreased by 5.6% Y/Y, with expectations for continued decline in road maintenance costs [6] - **Earnings Estimates**: - 4Q25 earnings expected to rise by 15% Y/Y due to resilient toll revenue and cost-reduction efforts [6] Dividend and Valuation - **Dividend Yield**: 5.7% for Jiangsu Expressway - H, with a commitment to maintain dividend stability [2][12] - **Price Target**: - H shares: HK$11.00 by Dec-26 [4][17] - A shares: Rmb15.00 by Dec-26 [27][41] - **Valuation Metrics**: - Adjusted EPS for FY25E: Rmb0.95, FY26E: Rmb1.01 [9][27] Strategic Initiatives - **Expansion Projects**: - Ongoing preparations for the Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway expansion, with completion aimed before the concession expires in 2032 [8] - Several major projects are progressing as scheduled, including the Ningyang Yangtze River Bridge North Connection and Xitai Project [7][8] - **Regulatory Environment**: - Anticipated revisions to the National Tollroad Regulation Policy, potentially extending concession periods and promoting balanced tolling [6] Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: - Larger-than-expected decline in traffic, higher-than-expected capital expenditures for new projects, and less favorable toll-road industry policy terms [23][42] - **Upside Risks**: - Larger-than-expected increase in traffic and lower-than-expected capital expenditures [42] Conclusion - **Investment Stance**: Overweight on Jiangsu Expressway - H due to solid fundamentals, attractive yield, and growth potential in the toll-road sector [2][12][21] - **Neutral on Jiangsu Expressway - A** due to valuation concerns after recent price rallies [30][40]