Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 13, 2026 08:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsBret Jordan - Managing DirectorLavesh Hemnani - VP and Head of Investor RelationsMark Jordan - VP of Equity ResearchRyan Grimsland - EVP and CFOShane O'Kelly - President and CEOConference Call ParticipantsChris Horvers - Senior AnalystScot Ciccarelli - Managing Director and Senior Equity Research AnalystSeth Sigman - Managing Director and Senior Equity Research AnalystSimeon Gutman - AnalystZach Fadem - Man ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue for Q3 was CAD 1.25 billion, a 2% increase year-over-year [16] - Adjusted Segment Operating Income rose to CAD 195.8 million, up 3% from CAD 190 million in the same quarter last year [16] - Adjusted EPS increased to CAD 0.34, compared to CAD 0.29 a year ago [16] - Net finance expense decreased to CAD 54.1 million from CAD 56.6 million in the previous year [17] - Free cash flow was CAD 411.3 million, slightly above CAD 409.8 million recorded in the same quarter last year [18] - Capital expenditures totaled CAD 50.6 million, with expectations for full-year CapEx to be over 10% lower than last year [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Civil segment, revenue decreased by 5% year-over-year to CAD 717.2 million, with adjusted operating income down 6% to CAD 141.8 million [19] - Training Center Utilization in the Civil segment was 71%, down from 76% in the prior year [20] - In the Defense segment, revenue increased by 14% year-over-year to CAD 534.9 million, with adjusted operating income up 38% to CAD 54 million, achieving a margin of 10.1% [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The civil aviation market is expected to grow at 4%-5% annually over the long term, despite current disruptions [52] - Defense spending is projected to grow significantly, with Canada committing CAD 82 billion over the next five years [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is implementing a multi-pronged transformation plan focusing on portfolio sharpening, disciplined capital management, and operational excellence [5][12] - The transformation plan aims to improve margins, cash flow, and returns on investment, with specific targets to be shared in the next quarter [7][35] - The company is rationalizing its civil training network to align capacity with current demand, which may impact near-term revenue [30][39] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges near-term revenue impacts from the transformation plan but believes it will lead to stronger long-term performance [8][34] - The defense segment is expected to see over 20% growth in adjusted segment operating income year-over-year, reflecting a favorable market environment [32] - The company is confident in its long-term growth prospects in both civil and defense markets, supported by strong fundamentals [46] Other Important Information - The company has identified non-core assets representing approximately 8% of revenue for potential divestiture [36] - Recent leadership changes include the appointment of Ryan McLeod as Chief Financial Officer, expected to enhance operational finance and capital discipline [13] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Long-term perspective on civil business returns - Management indicated that the civil business could generate solid mid-teen returns over the long term, with a focus on improving utilization and profitability [50][54] Question: Conversations with civil customers regarding network rationalization - Initial conversations with civil customers have been positive, focusing on resizing the network to meet current demand [58][60] Question: Nature of identified non-core assets - Non-core assets are present in both civil and defense segments, and the company is focused on finding suitable buyers for these businesses [66][67] Question: Outlook for civil aviation training demand - Management noted that while current demand is softer than expected, the long-term growth trajectory remains strong at 4%-5% [72][74] Question: Timing of potential divestitures - The company is moving cautiously through the divestiture process, with a timeline of 18-24 months for completion [75][76] Question: Defense segment margin improvements - The defense segment's margin improvements are attributed to better contract mix and cost controls, with expectations for continued growth [80]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 10% increase in total revenue year-over-year, with organic revenue growth of 3% [9] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $580 million, with adjusted EBITDA margins at 27.7% [9] - For the full year, adjusted EBITDA was approximately $2.1 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 27.4% [11] - Adjusted earnings per share for Q4 was $0.96, up 14% year-over-year, while for the full year it was $3.34, a 2% increase [10][11] - Free cash flow for Q4 was $462 million, with total liquidity at $3.8 billion [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the ITS segment, orders increased by 9% in Q4, with revenue growth of 11% year-over-year [13] - The PST segment saw Q4 orders up 6% year-over-year, with organic orders up 1% [15] - Life science businesses within PST delivered mid-teens organic order growth [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Americas region saw low single-digit organic order growth, while EMEA experienced a mid-single-digit decline, and Asia Pacific had low double-digit growth [14] - The company noted positive momentum in the life sciences market, particularly in pharma and biopharma production [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing its existing portfolio through disciplined M&A, with a robust acquisition pipeline [6][7] - The recurring revenue initiative exceeded $450 million in 2025, with a backlog of approximately $1.1 billion [5] - The company aims for total revenue growth of 2.5% to 4.5% in 2026, driven by organic growth and M&A contributions [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about improving trends in the market, particularly in life sciences and general industrial sectors [26] - The company remains agile and ready to adapt to changes in the global market landscape, emphasizing resilience and execution [20] - Management highlighted the importance of recurring revenue as a stable component of their business model [26] Other Important Information - The company completed 16 transactions in 2025, investing $525 million, which generated approximately $275 million in annualized inorganic revenue [7] - The Scinomix acquisition in January 2026 is expected to enhance the company's life science strategy [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: What sort of end market trajectory is embedded in the guidance? - Management indicated that the guidance assumes current market conditions continue, with no significant recovery embedded [24][30] Question: Are there any end markets that you're specifically worried about this year? - Management noted that headwinds from RNG, electric vehicles, and photovoltaics are largely behind them, with positive trends in China [30] Question: Can you provide clarity on the seasonality through the year? - Management expects Q1 organic growth to be flat or slightly down, with low single-digit growth anticipated for the rest of the year [34] Question: What are the expectations for cost actions or productivity gains during 2026? - Management confirmed that the guidance includes some productivity and cost actions, with proactive restructuring expected to yield savings [79] Question: Can you elaborate on the acquisition opportunity set? - Management stated that the current pipeline is primarily bolt-on in nature, with potential for larger acquisitions in the future [53] Question: What is the expected organic growth in the life sciences segment for 2026? - Management expressed optimism about continued momentum in life sciences, despite more challenging comps in 2026 [96]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company reported revenues of $1.9 billion, primarily driven by sales of the COVID vaccine Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE [4][10] - Operating expenses decreased by $2.2 billion, or 30% year-over-year, reflecting significant cost management efforts [4] - The net loss for the year was $2.8 billion, an improvement from a net loss of $3.6 billion in 2024 [14] - Cash and investments at the end of 2025 totaled $8.1 billion, down from $9.5 billion at the end of 2024 [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company had three products on the market in 2025: Spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, and mRESVIA, with mNEXSPIKE becoming the leading product in the U.S. shortly after its launch [7] - Total revenue for the fourth quarter was $700 million, with $300 million from the U.S. and $400 million from international markets [10] - U.S. revenue for the full year was $1.2 billion, while international revenue was $700 million [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the U.S., despite a decline in overall COVID market demand, the company maintained strong market share in the retail channel, particularly with mNEXSPIKE [11] - Internationally, the company achieved revenue at the higher end of expectations, driven by operational performance and vaccination rates [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026, primarily from international markets and local manufacturing in the U.K. and Australia [15][16] - Strategic partnerships in Latin America and Asia Pacific are expected to drive growth, alongside the anticipated launch of multiple vaccines in Europe by 2027 [20][22] - The company is focused on expanding its oncology pipeline and expects significant clinical milestones in 2026 [32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed disappointment over the FDA's refusal to file letter regarding the flu program, highlighting challenges in the regulatory environment [5] - The company remains optimistic about its growth potential, citing strong momentum heading into 2026 with multiple levers for revenue growth [19][33] - Management emphasized the importance of cost discipline and the adoption of AI tools to improve productivity [33] Other Important Information - The company announced a five-year strategic agreement with the government of Mexico for respiratory vaccine supply [7] - A new Chief Development Officer, Dr. David Berman, was appointed to enhance the oncology pipeline [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Implications of flu RTF on cash flow break-even guidance and INT program timing - Management noted that the flu filing is under review in Europe, Canada, and Australia, with the U.S. refile pending a Type A meeting with the FDA [37] - The INT program for adjuvant melanoma is event-driven, with data expected this year [41] Question: Thoughts on flu and COVID combination vaccine refile - The company is awaiting feedback from the FDA on what is needed to refile the mRNA-1010 program [45] - The phase III study for mRNA-1010 showed superior efficacy compared to standard vaccines [46] Question: European COVID vaccination market and flu vaccine strain selection - The company anticipates a larger market share in Europe, with mNEXSPIKE expected to be competitive [54] - Discussions on better strain matching for flu vaccines are ongoing, with strong support from international regulators [57]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported GAAP earnings of $2.5 million for Q4, with earnings available for distribution (EAD) at approximately -$500,000, leading to a per diluted share of $0.06 [8] - The company has a negative book value of about $300 million, or $31 per diluted share, and a common stock dividend yield of 8.7% [9] - The company holds around $100 million in cash and liquidity, with total equity in the vehicle at $300 million [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focused on acquiring multifamily loans from its operating business, Genesis, which is projected to produce between $6 billion and $7 billion in loans this year [11] - The company aims to grow earnings to between $1.60 and $1.70 per share, contingent on a recapitalization of the vehicle [5][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is currently trading at roughly 50% of its book value, with stock prices fluctuating between $15 and $16 following a 6-to-1 reverse stock split [4][7] - The commercial real estate sector is experiencing dislocation, with many REITs and BDCs trading poorly, which presents potential opportunities for the company [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to reposition itself as a dedicated commercial real estate vehicle and an opportunistic investment vehicle, focusing on capital formation and earnings growth [4][5] - The strategy includes acquiring multifamily loans and expanding into commercial real estate investments, with a focus on opportunistic acquisitions [12][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the potential for earnings growth and the ability to attract third-party capital, while remaining cautious about market conditions [10][29] - The company is committed to maintaining a clean balance sheet and is patient in its approach to recapitalization, aiming to avoid dilutive actions [10][29] Other Important Information - The company has identified a pool of approximately $1 billion in assets that could be added to the vehicle, subject to board approvals, which would lead to an immediate increase in earnings [30] - Management highlighted the importance of credit quality in sourcing loans, emphasizing a balanced approach between internal and third-party loan origination [39][40] Q&A Session Summary Question: Will RPT receive a slice of the NOI from the Paramount transaction? - Management indicated that RPT has $50 million of the Paramount deal on its balance sheet, and earnings will be pro rata based on Rithm's performance [19] Question: Are there plans to explore more loans from Genesis? - Management confirmed that Genesis is expected to produce $6 billion to $7 billion in loans, and successful capital raises would allow for loans to be added directly to the balance sheet, enhancing earnings [20] Question: Is there a tolerance for finding other sources of capital? - Management acknowledged the potential for third-party capital to be introduced, but emphasized the importance of timing and market conditions [28] Question: What types of loans will be prioritized? - Management stated that the primary focus will be on multifamily loans generated by Genesis, which are expected to be highly accretive [30] Question: Is there an opportunity to acquire from banks? - Management noted that there is currently limited bank selling, but the demand for Genesis's products remains strong, creating opportunities for growth [41]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported GAAP earnings of $2.5 million for Q4 2025, with a per diluted share loss of -$0.06 and a book value of approximately $300 million, or $31 per diluted share [8][9] - The common stock dividend yield is 8.7%, and the company has about $100 million in cash and liquidity [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focused on acquiring multifamily loans from its operating business, Genesis, which is projected to produce between $6 billion and $7 billion in loans this year, up from $1.7 billion in production when acquired [11][12] - The company has identified a pool of assets worth around $1 billion that could be added to the vehicle, which would lead to an immediate increase in earnings [31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is currently trading at roughly 50% of its book value, with a trading price around $15 [7] - The commercial real estate sector is experiencing dislocation, with many REITs facing liquidity issues, which presents an opportunity for the company to grow [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to transition into a dedicated commercial real estate vehicle and opportunistic investment vehicle, focusing on capital formation to achieve earnings growth between $1.60 and $1.70 per share [5][6] - The strategy includes acquiring multifamily loans and expanding into commercial real estate investments, with a focus on patience until market conditions stabilize [10][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the potential for earnings growth and the ability to attract third-party capital, while emphasizing the importance of timing and market conditions [29][30] - The company is exploring opportunities to become a Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac servicer or originator, aiming for an end-to-end customer relationship in the lending process [43][44] Other Important Information - The company announced a reverse stock split of 6-for-1 to attract more interest in its stock [4] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a clean balance sheet and being patient in the current market environment [9][10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Will RPT receive a slice of the NOI from the Paramount transaction? - Management indicated that RPT has $50 million of the Paramount deal on its balance sheet, and it will be a pro rata share of what Rithm did [20] Question: Are there plans to acquire more loans from Genesis? - Management confirmed that Genesis is expected to produce $6 billion-$7 billion in loans, and there are identified loans that could go onto the balance sheet, leading to a real increase in earnings [21] Question: Is there a tolerance for finding other sources of capital? - Management stated that there is third-party capital interested in the vehicle, and they are open to bringing in additional capital as long as it is not highly dilutive [29][30] Question: What types of loans will be the primary source for RPT? - Management noted that the primary source will be multifamily loans generated by Genesis, which are expected to be highly accretive [31] Question: Is there an opportunity to acquire from banks? - Management mentioned that there is not much bank selling currently, but the regional banks pulling back has created opportunities for Genesis to grow production [41]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company reported revenues of $1.9 billion, primarily driven by sales of its COVID vaccine Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE [4][10] - Operating expenses decreased by $2.2 billion, or 30% year-over-year, reflecting significant cost management efforts [4] - The net loss for the year was $2.8 billion, an improvement from a net loss of $3.6 billion in 2024 [14] - Cash and investments at year-end totaled $8.1 billion, down from $9.5 billion at the end of 2024 [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company had three products on the market in 2025: Spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, and mRESVIA, with mNEXSPIKE quickly becoming the leading product in the U.S. [7] - Total revenue for the fourth quarter was $700 million, with $300 million from the U.S. and $400 million from international markets [10] - The U.S. revenue for the full year was $1.2 billion, while international revenue was $700 million [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the U.S., despite a decline in overall COVID market demand, the company maintained strong market share in the retail channel, particularly with mNEXSPIKE capturing 24% of the total U.S. retail market [11][25] - Internationally, revenue performance was driven by operational efficiency and vaccination rates meeting expectations [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026, primarily from international markets and local manufacturing in the U.K. and Australia [15][16] - Strategic partnerships in Latin America and Asia Pacific are expected to drive growth, alongside the anticipated launch of multiple vaccines in 2027 [20][22] - The company is focused on expanding its oncology pipeline and expects significant clinical milestones in 2026 [32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed disappointment over the FDA's refusal to file letter regarding the flu program, highlighting regulatory uncertainty as a challenge for innovation [5] - The company remains optimistic about its growth trajectory, citing strong momentum and multiple levers for revenue growth [19][33] Other Important Information - The company has completed enrollment in several late-stage oncology studies and anticipates data readouts in 2026 [28][32] - A new Chief Development Officer has joined the company, expected to enhance the oncology pipeline [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Implications of flu RTF on cash flow break-even guidance and INT program timing - Management is pleased with the flu filing progress in Europe and Canada, with the U.S. refile dependent on the Type A meeting with the FDA [36] - The INT program for adjuvant melanoma is event-driven, with data expected this year [40] Question: Thoughts on flu and COVID combination vaccine re-filing - The company is awaiting feedback from the FDA on what is needed for re-filing the mRNA-1010 program [43] - The phase III study for mRNA-1010 showed superior efficacy compared to standard vaccines [45] Question: European COVID vaccination market and flu vaccine strain selection - The company anticipates a larger market than the current $700 million estimate, with mNEXSPIKE expected to capture significant share [52] - Discussions on better strain matching for flu vaccines are ongoing, with strong support from international regulators [55][57] Question: Higher-than-expected cash balance explanation - The cash balance exceeded expectations due to lower cash costs and strong working capital performance [60] Question: Details on the adjuvant phase 3 melanoma study and Norovirus confidence - The adjuvant melanoma study includes interim analyses, with the first expected this year [65] - The Norovirus vaccine is targeting older adults, with a different approach than previous studies [68]

Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 13, 2026 08:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsBret Jordan - Managing DirectorLavesh Hemnani - VP and Head of Investor RelationsMark Jordan - VP of Equity ResearchRyan Grimsland - EVP and CFOShane O'Kelly - President and CEOConference Call ParticipantsChris Horvers - Senior AnalystSeth Sigman - Managing Director and Senior Equity Research AnalystSimeon Gutman - AnalystZach Fadem - Managing Director and Senior Equity AnalystNone - AnalystOperatorWelcome ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Annual revenue increased to approximately CAD 3.5 billion in 2025, up 11% compared to 2024 [14] - Adjusted EBITDA was about CAD 1.9 billion, which was up 26% from the previous year [14] - Adjusted net earnings of just under CAD 630 million represent a 115% improvement compared to 2024 [14] - The balance sheet remains strong, ending the year with approximately CAD 1.2 billion in cash and short-term investments, CAD 1 billion in total debt [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Uranium segment produced 21 million pounds on a consolidated basis in 2025, exceeding revised annual guidance [15] - Fuel services segment delivered strong performance, including record UF6 production at Port Hope [16] - JV Inkai met its annual production target, delivering 3.7 million pounds for 2025 [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average realized prices improved, reflecting a strengthening long-term market environment [14] - Approximately 230 million pounds committed under long-term contracts by year-end [14] - Long-term contracting volumes in 2025 remained below replacement-rate levels, indicating a need for continued discipline [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on disciplined execution and long-term strategy, adapting to market volatility [8] - Continued investment in next-generation enrichment and partnerships, including a strategic partnership with Westinghouse and the U.S. government [10][18] - Plans to ramp up uranium production in 2026, with commitments to deliver an average of about 28 million pounds annually over the next five years [13][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted ongoing geopolitical turmoil but emphasized resilience and adaptation within the industry [8] - The outlook for growth across the nuclear fuel cycle is driven by electrification, decarbonization, and energy security priorities [19] - The company expects to produce between 19.5 million and 21.5 million pounds of uranium in 2026, with an average realized price between CAD 85 and CAD 89 [21] Other Important Information - The company maintains significant uncommitted productive capacity to deploy as market fundamentals strengthen [14] - The investment in Westinghouse is expected to yield strong performance, with an outlook for adjusted EBITDA from Westinghouse of approximately $370 million-$430 million in 2026 [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance framework for Westinghouse business - Management discussed the potential financial impact of projects and the excitement around the Gen III reactor opportunities, emphasizing discipline in guidance [28][30] Question: Average realized pricing outlook for 2026 - Management explained the lack of significant price appreciation is due to a disciplined marketing strategy, preserving pounds for when demand increases [34][36] Question: Production outlook at McArthur River - Management acknowledged delays and emphasized a systematic approach to development, aligning production with market demand [50][52] Question: Technical risks around McArthur River - Management clarified that risks are being managed proactively and are not indicative of a riskier environment, focusing on disciplined production strategy [62][64] Question: Potential stresses on production capacity - Management expressed confidence in meeting future demand and emphasized the importance of disciplined production planning [68][70] Question: Westinghouse EBITDA guidance - Management noted that the guidance reflects core business drivers and the timing of regulatory approvals impacting immediate orders [74][76] Question: Conversion market contracting - Management highlighted the importance of securing long-term contracts at historic prices and the strategic approach to maximizing asset value [78][80]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, sales increased by 2% to $10.8 billion, with adjusted EBIT margin expanding by 100 basis points to 7.5% [8][12] - For the full year, sales were $42 billion, slightly down due to softer volumes in North America and Europe, while adjusted EBIT margin rose by 20 basis points to 5.6% [9][12] - Adjusted EPS for Q4 rose by 29% to $2.18, and for the full year, it increased by 6% to $5.73 [8][9] - Free cash flow for the full year reached $1.9 billion, an increase of $849 million [9][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Three of the four segments posted higher sales year-over-year, with seating seeing an 8% increase, while complete vehicles were down 10% [16] - Body exteriors and structures, and seating segments posted strong increases in adjusted EBIT margin year-over-year [16][17] - Power and vision margins were negatively impacted by discrete items, but operational improvements are expected to drive margin expansion in 2026 [17][61] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global light vehicle production was down 1% overall in Q4, with North America and China declining, while Europe saw an increase [13] - Magna's sales growth is expected to be near flat to up 3.5% in 2026, driven by new program launches and foreign currency translation benefits [21][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational excellence initiatives, which contributed to margin expansion and are expected to continue delivering benefits in 2026 [10][27] - A disciplined approach to capital spending is emphasized, with plans to repurchase approximately 22 million shares under the NCIB [7][24] - The company aims to maintain strong free cash flow and EPS growth while reducing leverage [7][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in executing their capital allocation strategy and driving EPS growth alongside strong free cash flow [7][28] - The outlook for 2026 includes expectations for adjusted EBIT margin expansion of 40-100 basis points and free cash flow of $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion [7][22] Other Important Information - The company achieved significant operational milestones in 2025, including securing 90% of its 2028 business and receiving 151 customer awards for quality and performance [9][10] - The company has been recognized as one of the world's most ethical companies and most admired companies [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance for outgrowth ex complete vehicles of 1%-4% - Management attributed the outgrowth to operational excellence activities and new programs with favorable economic terms [31][34] Question: Operational excellence and commercial recoveries - Management indicated that operational excellence is a continuing journey with visibility on margin improvements, while commercial recoveries are expected to be neutral year-over-year [36][39] Question: Seating segment outlook and cost actions - Management confirmed that no incumbent seating programs have been lost, and the seating segment remains core and profitable despite some program roll-offs [44][46] Question: Free cash flow sustainability - Management expects free cash flow in the range of $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion to be sustainable, supported by disciplined CapEx [49] Question: Ford recall and warranty hit - Management clarified that one recall matter has been resolved, while another is ongoing, impacting margins in the power and vision segment [52][59] Question: Growth in power and vision segment - Management highlighted that growth is driven by new launches and operational improvements, with expectations for margin expansion in 2026 [61][62]