Foundation M Meet the new boss, same as the old boss U.S. Economics | North America History may not repeat, but it should rhyme: what the 2018-19 tariffs can tell us about tariffs today The 2018-19 tariffs caused manufacturing output to fall after a delay. This time around, the hit to growth could materialize faster. Either way, we think the Fed will be inclined to ease in support of activity so long as inflation pressures prove temporary, as we expect. Key Takeaways | M February 21, 2025 06:00 AM GMT Histo ...

Deutsche Bank Research Asia Economics Asia Macro Insight 22 February 2025 Date Calm before the storm Despite US tariff threats, which prompted many of Asia's authorities to seek a deal with the US (with the exception of China), local markets remained relatively resilient, especially in the absence of aggressive follow-up actions against China. That said, we strike a note of caution, given that the US's comprehensive review and remedial action plan is not scheduled to be completed until April 1. While there ...

21 February 2025 Equity Research Report 360 Security Technology (601360 CH) Upgrade to Hold: AI monetisation accelerates AI monetisation fully priced in. We previously pointed out that the company's AI businesses were still at an early stage, while we underestimated the pace of its AI development, with the fast-growing AI search and office businesses seeing a surge in the number of users. We expect AI businesses to significantly contribute to earnings growth, and we thus raise our 2026 EPS estimate by 25% a ...

February 21, 2025 09:20 AM GMT Chinese Airports | Asia Pacific Consumption Slump in the Price; Await Catalysts We expect consumption pressure will continue to weigh on Chinese airports' earnings recovery in 2025. However, we think soft consumption is largely in the price. We await catalysts. Key Takeaways Duty-free spending is soft; we also think air traffic and air cargo volume growth are at risk... We remain guarded toward China's 2025 consumption outlook, considering soft GDP growth amid tariffs and pers ...

V i e w p o i n t | 20 Feb 2025 22:09:31 ET │ 30 pages Fund Flow Insights Inflows Return to DM Equity Funds CITI'S TAKE US$16.8bn inflows into equity funds — In the week ended 19 Feb, bond funds saw US$16.2bn of inflows and equity funds enjoyed a return of US$16.8bn. Most of the inflows went into US ETFs, which led to US$12.9bn of unit creation, while Global ETFs saw US$6.4bn. Even European funds had a second week of inflows, as their ETFs recorded US$5.2bn of unit creation. Most funds performed positively ...

A c t i o n | 20 Feb 2025 20:00:00 ET │ 36 pages North America Hardware & Storage Broader Recovery In Infrastructure Demand With Near Term AI Lumpiness, PC Demand More Tempered But Expected to Recover CITI'S TAKE Hardware OEMs are expected to report in the coming weeks. On a median basis, shares have modestly underperformed the S&P500 over a three- month period. From a fundamental perspective, overall infrastructure demand indicators (excluding AI) remain constructive with supply chain commentary (SNX, CDW) ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Greater China Tech Semiconductor Industry Overview - The focus is on the Greater China Tech Semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of AI and non-AI opportunities [1][2]. Core Insights - **Top Investment Ideas**: - Key Overweight (OW) recommendations include FOCI, Novatek, Asmedia, Nuvoton, Espressif, Montage, and Yangjie [5]. - Key Equal Weight (EW) recommendations include Aspeed and ASMPT [5]. - Key Underweight (UW) recommendations include Realtek, Winbond, and Macronix [5]. - **Market Dynamics**: - The broader semiconductor cycle recovery is slow, with AI cannibalization impacting general computing, consumer, and automotive sectors as enterprises prioritize AI investments [5]. - The value of AI semiconductors is increasingly tied to software rather than just semiconductor technology [5]. - China's capital expenditure (capex) is strengthening, leading to a slower recovery in mature node foundry utilization [5]. - An increase in semiconductor inventory days historically signals a negative trend for semiconductor stock price appreciation [5]. - **Long-term Demand Drivers**: - Tech diffusion is expected to drive a reacceleration in AI semiconductor demand, particularly due to generative AI applications across various sectors [5]. - Tech deflation is anticipated to stimulate demand for technology products through "price elasticity" [5]. Financial Metrics and Valuation - **Valuation Comparisons**: - TSMC (Ticker: 2330.TW) has a current price of 1,080.0 TWD with a target price of 1,388.0 TWD, indicating a 29% upside [6]. - UMC (Ticker: 2303.TW) has a current price of 43.0 TWD with a target price of 48.0 TWD, indicating a 12% upside [6]. - SMIC (Ticker: 0981.HK) shows a current price of 50.8 HKD with a target price of 38.0 HKD, indicating a 25% downside [6]. - **Performance Metrics**: - TSMC's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 33.4 in 2023 to 17.7 in 2025, with EPS growth expected to rebound from -18% to 35% [6]. - UMC's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 8.8 in 2023 to 13.9 in 2025, with EPS growth projected to be negative [6]. Additional Insights - **AI Semiconductor Growth**: - Excluding NVIDIA's AI GPU revenue, non-AI semiconductor growth is projected at only 10% year-over-year in 2024 [11]. - The semiconductor supply chain is seeing a slight decrease in inventory days, which historically correlates with an increase in the semiconductor stock index [11]. - **Technological Advancements**: - TSMC's CoWoS (Chip on Wafers on Substrate) technology is becoming mainstream for 2.5D packaging, with plans for rapid expansion of advanced package plants in Taiwan [14][15]. - The global market for CoWoS is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 172% from 2023 to 2030, reaching an estimated market size of US$9 billion by 2030 [36]. - **CPO Technology**: - CPO (Chip on Photonic Integrated Circuit) is highlighted as a power-saving solution that enhances data transmission speeds [26][36]. - FOCI is expected to see significant revenue growth from CPO-related business, primarily driven by partnerships with NVIDIA [38][41]. Conclusion - The Greater China Tech Semiconductor industry is navigating a complex landscape with both challenges and opportunities, particularly in AI and advanced packaging technologies. The focus on long-term demand drivers and strategic investments in key companies will be crucial for navigating this evolving market.

+1-212-816-8830 veronica1.clark@citi.com US Economics Weekly Freezing temperatures, frozen markets CITI'S TAKE As Fed officials and markets are in a holding pattern awaiting more data and policy clarity, the limited data that was released this week if anything reinforced our expectation for slowing growth this year. Housing construction and sales fell, and weaker homebuilder sentiment suggests limited upside. Manufacturing PMI remains modestly expansionary, but services PMI surprisingly fell into contractio ...

Nick Maciunas AC (1-212) 834-5671 nicholas.m.maciunas@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Alex Kraus (1-212) 834-5954 alexander.d.kraus@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Sanjana Prasad (1-212) 834-5720 sanjana.t.prasad@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC David Kaminsky (1-212) 834-5116 david.kaminsky@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC North America Securitized Products Research J P M O R G A N 21 February 2025 Agency MBS There's a first time for everything Views • Mortgages are on the tig ...

February 21, 2025 01:41 AM GMT Unity Software Inc | North America The Next AI Winner? Remain OW | What's Changed | | --- | Price Target $26.00 $32.00 | Unity Software Inc (U.N) | From | To | | --- | --- | --- | | Price Target | $26.00 | $32.00 | Reaction to earnings Strengthens our investment thesis Meaningful upside Modest revision higher Impact to our investment thesis Financial results versus consensus Impact to next 12-month consensus EPS Source: In 1Q, U will start rolling out Vector, its new GPU-enabl ...