Summary of Economic Data Surprises and Forecast Performance in 2024 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US economy, analyzing economic data surprises, forecasting performance, and market reactions throughout 2024 [2][5][6]. Key Points Economic Growth - The US GDP increased approximately 2.5% Q4/Q4 in 2024, surpassing both Goldman Sachs' forecast of 2% and the consensus forecast of 0.8% [2][6]. - The growth forecast was adjusted multiple times throughout the year, initially boosted by recognizing the impact of immigration on labor force growth [6][8]. Inflation Trends - The core PCE price index rose around 2.8% Q4/Q4 in 2024, which was higher than Goldman Sachs' forecast of 2.2% and the consensus of 2.4% [2][13]. - Key contributors to the inflation surprise included methodological changes in calculating owners' equivalent rent and broader applications of "catch-up inflation" beyond just rent [2][13]. Forecast Performance - Goldman Sachs achieved a hit rate of 67% for economic indicator forecasts in 2024, slightly above the 63% average from the previous eight years [2][18]. - Strong performances were noted in indicators such as the unemployment rate (100% hit rate), core PCE (91%), retail control (86%), and core capex orders (86%) [2][18][24]. - Underperformance was observed in the Philly Fed (45%) and average hourly earnings (33%) due to unexpected technical distortions [2][24]. Market Reactions - Market sensitivity to inflation data was significantly elevated, with Treasury market sensitivity at 5.5 times the historical average and equity market sensitivity at 2.2 times normal [32][37]. - In 2024, equity prices consistently rose in response to positive growth surprises, indicating a stronger conviction that inflation would remain controlled despite robust growth [3][34]. Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2025, forecasts suggest healthy growth and lower inflation, which may lead to reduced sensitivity to monthly economic data [42]. - The anticipated economic policy uncertainty due to potential changes in government control could also impact market reactions [42]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the importance of alternative data sources and proprietary indicators in improving forecasting accuracy [23][29]. - The performance of second-tier economic indicators was consistent with previous years, maintaining a hit rate of 59% [25]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the economic analysis conducted by Goldman Sachs, providing a comprehensive overview of the US economic landscape in 2024 and expectations for 2025.

6 January 2025 Global Semiconductors & Hardware China Smartphone Tracker (Nov 2024): An unusual surge in sub- flagship segment Mark Li +852 2918 5752 mark.li@bernsteinsg.com A.M. (Toni) Sacconaghi, Jr. +1 212 407 5843 sacconaghi@bernsteinsg.com Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D. +1 212 756 4403 stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Sara Russo +44 207 544 1792 sara.russo@bernsteinsg.com Aleksander Peterc +44 20 7762 4785 aleksander.peterc@bernsteinsg.com Edward Hou, CFA +852 2918 5796 edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Alrick Shaw +1 21 ...

Summary of Airline Industry Research Call Industry Overview - The airline industry is expected to experience improved profitability in 2025 due to capacity discipline and margin differentials between leaders and laggards [1][2] - The US Airlines JETS ETF has gained 45% since August, reflecting a positive market sentiment [2] - Capacity growth for Q4 2024 is projected to increase by 2.0% year-over-year in seats and 1.9% in available seat miles (ASMs) [2] Key Financial Metrics - Airlines have re-rated their FY2 EBITDA by approximately 1X since August, with a current average multiple of ~6X, compared to a pre-pandemic standard of ~7X [5] - The discount to the S&P has narrowed from 65% to 60%, indicating a potential for further re-rating [5][27] - Average operating margin expansion of 90 basis points is estimated for 2025, despite challenges in cost management [3] Company-Specific Insights - **United Airlines (UAL)**: Remains a favored long-term investment with visibility to low double-digit pre-tax margins. The stock is rated as a Buy with a price target of $132 [6][7] - **American Airlines (AAL)**: Upgraded to Buy with a price target of $20, expected to recover from a $1.5 billion distribution hole in 2024. Projected EPS for 2025 is $2.55, a 14% increase from consensus estimates [6][7] - **Delta Air Lines (DAL)**: Rated as Buy with a price target of $76, focusing on reducing gross leverage to 1X and generating $3-5 billion in free cash flow (FCF) annually [4][42] - **Southwest Airlines (LUV)**: Rated as Hold with a price target of $34, focusing on a $2.5 billion share repurchase program [4][43] - **Air Canada (AC)**: Rated as Hold with a price target of C$23, planning to re-lever its balance sheet for share repurchases [4][44] Capacity and Growth Projections - Total ASM growth for 2025 is expected to be around 2.5%, with DAL and UAL leading with 3-4% growth [18] - Low-cost carriers (LCCs) are expected to face challenges in maintaining market share without aggressive pricing strategies [17] - The industry is projected to return to typical mid-single-digit growth rates in air traffic, with normalized demand expected to fill capacity gaps [53][56] Cost Management and Profitability - Cost pressures are anticipated to persist, with CASM-ex expected to increase by 3.6% year-over-year in 2025 [3][38] - Airlines are implementing cost-out initiatives, with AAL targeting $1 billion in savings by 2026 [36] - Maintenance costs remain elevated, approximately 40% above pre-pandemic levels, impacting overall profitability [19] Capital Allocation Strategies - Airlines are adopting varied capital allocation strategies, with some focusing on debt reduction while others prioritize shareholder returns [10][39] - UAL is noted for its shareholder-friendly approach, planning significant share repurchases funded by FCF [45] - AAL is focused on deleveraging, aiming to reduce its debt significantly by 2028 [41] Conclusion - The airline industry is positioned for a recovery in profitability driven by capacity discipline and strategic capital allocation. Key players like UAL and AAL are expected to lead the way, while cost management remains a critical focus for all carriers. The potential for further re-rating exists as the market stabilizes and demand normalizes.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Leisure, Gaming & Lodging** industry, providing insights and predictions for 2025 based on the performance of various sectors in 2024 [2][3]. Core Insights and Predictions Lodging - **Marriott (MAR)** is expected to guide net unit growth for 2024 at **4.2%**, which is at the low end of its long-term guidance of **4-5% CAGR**. In contrast, **Hilton (HLT)** is projected to achieve a growth rate of **7-7.5%** in 2024, exceeding its **5% growth** in 2023 [5][6]. - Overall U.S. lodging supply is anticipated to remain muted in 2024 [5]. Cruise Lines - **Carnival Corporation (CCL)** and **Royal Caribbean (RCL)** are expected to order new ships in 2024 for delivery in 2027 or later, marking a significant return to ordering since the pandemic. **Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH)** is not expected to order new ships due to existing commitments [7]. Gaming - **DraftKings (DKNG)** is projected to grow its structural hold by at least **80 basis points** year-over-year in 2024, with EBITDA guidance set between **$350 million and $450 million**. However, there are concerns about potential non-core acquisitions [8]. - The **Macau** gaming market is expected to see double-digit growth in gross gaming revenue (GGR) in 2024, with **Las Vegas Sands (LVS)** recovering market share as the grind mass continues to recover [9][10]. - The Las Vegas Strip is experiencing a decline in same-store net gaming revenue, with a **2% year-over-year** decrease from March to October 2024 [12]. Powersports - U.S. retail sales for off-road vehicles are expected to decline in 2024, although **BRP** may gain market share. **Harley-Davidson (HOG)** is also expected to see a decline in retail sales due to softer demand [13][14][15]. Toys - U.S. toy retail sales are projected to decline by **8%** in 2023, driven by decreasing average selling prices [16]. Other Leisure - **Peloton** is expected to finish the fiscal year with connected fitness subscribers in the range of **2.9-3.1 million**, indicating muted conversion from its new app launch [17]. Additional Predictions for 2025 - **Cruise Lines**: CCL's new island destination, **Celebration Key**, is expected to drive demand starting in July 2025 [18]. - **Hotels**: HLT is expected to achieve higher net unit growth than MAR, with guidance of **6-7%** for 2025, while MAR may struggle to meet its **4%** growth target [20][21]. - **Powersports**: Harley may reconsider its electric vehicle strategy due to lower demand for its traditional motorcycle business [22]. - **Online Sports Betting**: **Genius Sports (GENI)** is expected to see **20%+** growth in sports rights expenses in 2025, driven by new contracts [24]. - **Gaming**: Las Vegas revenues may remain flat or decline in 2025, with regional markets facing growth challenges [26]. Risks and Considerations - The report highlights various risks, including macroeconomic factors affecting lodging demand, potential declines in visitation to Las Vegas, and competitive pressures in the cruise industry [30][31][32][33]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and predictions for the Leisure, Gaming & Lodging industry as discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of expected trends and potential risks for investors.

ab 6 January 2025 Global Research China Industrials Going global: 'China+1' investment plan tracker (2024) UBS's quarterly tracker gauging 'China+1' progress under going global Our China 'going global' tracker follows the country's progress under the China+1 strategy on a quarterly basis (from Q124). In Q424, the overseas investment intentions for LatAm and ASEAN changed—investment plans in ASEAN increased notably in Q424 while investment interest in LatAm continued to decline YoY. We continue to expect goi ...

Industry or Company Involved - **China's Economy** Key Points and Arguments 1. **China's Economic Outlook in 2025 hinges on two factors: external tariffs and domestic stimulus**. The US tariffs are expected to phase in from 25Q2 and increase by 15% in a staged manner, impacting China's exports and GDP. Domestic policy is expected to become more expansionary, but not a decisive shift from the current real-growth-targeting and reactive easing mode. 2. **Tariff Risks**: The baseline assumption is a 15% annualized increase in tariffs, similar to the 2018-19 trade dispute. The US has indicated a desire to strengthen oversight on tariff evasion, but implementation may be challenging due to China's dominant role in global manufacturing. 3. **Trade Diversion**: The US has indicated a desire to strengthen oversight on tariff evasion, and we do anticipate meaningful measures to close such "loopholes" through third countries and a crackdown on de minimis shipments. Implementation, however, may prove challenging, given China's dominant role in global manufacturing. 4. **Impact of Tariffs**: A 15% tariff hike with partial diversion will slow China's exports by -6.0% and China's GDP by –1.0% ceteris paribus. 5. **RMB Depreciation**: The RMB depreciation pressure is real under tariff threats. Amid trade dispute 1.0, USDCNY responded to almost every announcement of tariffs and deals. Based on this sensitivity, USDCNY could reach 7.7-8.0 under 60% tariffs, and in the escalating stage, the markets could price in extreme scenarios. 6. **Confidence Problem**: Two years after reopening, social confidence is still weak. The confidence issue appears broad-based and entrenched now. Weak sentiment would continue to weigh on the economy in 2025. 7. **Deflation Challenge**: China's longest streak of deflation drags on. The GDP deflator should remain negative in 24Q4E, the seventh consecutive negative reading. This is unprecedented for China, with a similar episode only in 1998-99. 8. **Policies**: China should and probably will navigate the turbulence with policy stimulus. The support would step up to offset potential tariff shocks, but not to reflate the economy. 9. **Monetary Easing**: Rate and RRR cuts will likely continue. The monetary policy stance is now officially stated as "moderately loose" by the Politburo and the CEWC. 10. **Fiscal Policy**: We expect overall government deficit to increase ~RMB2.5tr to RMB11.5trn for 2025. The central government could take up all the increase. 11. **Targeted Consumer Support**: Targeted consumer support would likely top policymakers' priority list for 2025. Following the recent pay hikes for civil servants, more mini measures could come through. 12. **GDP Growth**: We maintain our forecast that GDP growth could retreat to 4.2%YoY in 2025E after hitting 5.0% in 2024E. 13. **Inflation**: China may not find an easy way out of deflation in 2025E. We forecast CPI to average 0.6%YoY and PPI to decline -1.9%YoY in 2025E – no reflation. 14. **Consumption**: Retail sales could grow only 3.5%YoY in 2024E, setting the stage for rebound. Indeed, household savings rate stood at 38.0% in 24Q1-3, still notably higher than the pre-Covid 36.2%. 15. **Investment**: Property investment could record a fourth high single-digit or double-digit contraction in 2025. Policymakers are aiming for "stopping the decline of the sector and foster a stabilization," yet we think it is more about home prices and sales, instead of investment. 16. **Trade**: Exports look set to decline from the all-time high amid tariff uncertainties. Headline exports likely grew 5.4%YoY in 2024 with the momentum for volume even stronger. 17. **Key Risks**: The shock could be more significant especially in the case of a 60% universal tariff on China. Our current expectations are at best an educated guess, and we see risks largely balanced around this base case.

6 January 2025 | 10:37PM HKT China Spirits Tracker: Checking in on 2025 Strong-Start progress and 2024 target completion In the recent week, we noted sequential pick-up in retail sell-through, while the LNY seasonal performance may need further monitoring as there is still some time for the peak season stock up by retail merchants. Our conversations with investors showed that market expectations are quite low, expecting yoy decline in spirits retail sales vs. the high-base in 2024 LNY, while the bright spot ...

A c t i o n | 05 Jan 2025 23:47:29 ET │ 21 pages China Longyuan Power Group (0916.HK) 2025-26E Profit Cuts on Drop in Tariff and Less New Capacity CITI'S TAKE Our Longyuan net profits are cut 4.1% for 2025E and 9.2% for 2026E owing to more tariff cuts amid competition and less new capacity with completion delay based on company update. Our DCF TP is -10% to HK$7.20/share. While we forecast its net profit to +2.9% yoy to Rmb6,381m in 2024E with less impairment loss yoy in 4Q, improved from -11.4% yoy to Rmb5 ...

TW is likely to remain under pressure led by valuation downcycle, rising ERP and now peak in earnings. KR could find some tactical support as valuations have fallen to 2022 lows with early signs of inflection in downward revisions and quite light positioning. Within ASEAN, SG/MY is less likely to continue their 2023 strong run as earnings cycle seems to be peaking. However, TW/SG/MY are the best stock-pickers markets in the region with above average dispersion. AU could start the year on a positive note, ho ...