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Key Points Industry or Company Involved - Clean Energy Sector Core Views and Arguments - **Long-term Load Growth and Decarbonization**: - US generation expected to double by 2050 due to onshoring, electrification, data centers, and population growth. - Increased renewables mix driven by declining costs, government policies, and corporate net zero commitments. - **Renewables Unsubsidized LCOE Remains Compelling**: - Onshore wind, offshore wind, fixed-axis PV, tracking PV, battery storage, coal, gas, coal + CCS, gas + CCS, hydrogen, and nuclear all have compelling unsubsidized LCOE. - **2024 Year in Review**: - Solar: Strong demand with above-average project timing delays. - Wind: Flattish growth, market fragmenting. - Storage: Remains highest growth area of renewables. - Gas turbines: Order activity implies beginning of new demand cycle. - **2025 Outlook**: - Interconnection/permitting queues remain challenging. - JPM forecasts 100bp of US risk-free interest rate declines through summer-25. - Solar: Global deployments to grow ~11% y/y. - Wind: Global deployments to grow ~17% y/y. - Storage: Global deployments to grow ~35% y/y, excluding declines in China. - **US Election Impact**: - Expect volatility in the stocks until policy visibility improves. - JPM base case assumptions: IRA repeal unlikely, ITC/PTC likely remains, and 45X Advanced Manufacturing credits likely safe. - **Trading Multiples at Multi-Year Lows**: - Positive catalysts could lead to bounce off multi-year lows. - IRA certainty, permitting/interconnection progress, and direct/indirect data center project announcements as potential catalysts. - **Top Picks**: - Brookfield Renewable (BEP and BEPC) - First Solar (FSLR) - Hannon Armstrong (HASI) - Nextracker (NXT) Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **US Electricity Generation Capacity**: - Source: US Energy Information Administration, J.P. Morgan. - **Renewables Unsubsidized LCOE Remains Compelling**: - Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. - **2024 Year in Review**: - Source: J.P. Morgan Estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P. - **2025 Outlook**: - Source: J.P. Morgan - **US Election Impact**: - Source: J.P. Morgan - **Trading Multiples at Multi-Year Lows**: - Source: J.P. Morgan Estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Pricing as of 12/10/24. - **Top Picks**: - Source: J.P. Morgan - **US Clean Energy Stock Coverage**: - Source: J.P. Morgan - **Disclosures**: - Source: J.P. Morgan - **Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe**: - Source: J.P. Morgan - **J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of October 05, 2024**: - Source: J.P. Morgan - **Equity Valuation and Risks**: - Source: J.P. Morgan - **Other Disclosures**: - Source: J.P. Morgan - **Legal Entities Disclosures and Country-/Region-Specific Disclosures**: - Source: J.P. Morgan - **General**: - Source: J.P. Morgan - **Confidentiality and Security Notice**: - Source: J.P. Morgan - **Copyright**: - Source: J.P. Morgan

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