Summary of Haidilao International Holding Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Haidilao International Holding Ltd - **Industry**: China/Hong Kong Consumer - **Stock Ticker**: 6862.HK - **Market Cap**: Rmb75,467 million - **Current Share Price**: HK$14.90 - **Price Target**: HK$18.00, representing a 21% upside potential [5][9] Operational Updates - **Demand Trajectory**: Slightly better than expected but still weak; year-over-year (YOY) comparison for table turnover in February is higher than January due to Chinese New Year (CNY) timing [2][8] - **Earnings Growth**: Expected to be driven by margin improvements in the second half of 2024 and first quarter of 2025 [2] - **Cash Flow**: Disciplined investment and store openings are expected to generate solid cash flow, with a projected dividend yield of 5.5% based on 2023 dividends per share (DPS) [2] Financial Performance - **Revenue Projections**: - 2023: Rmb41,453 million - 2024e: Rmb44,382 million - 2025e: Rmb48,757 million - 2026e: Rmb51,552 million [5] - **Net Income Projections**: - 2023: Rmb4,499 million - 2024e: Rmb4,494 million - 2025e: Rmb5,555 million - 2026e: Rmb6,290 million [5] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: Rmb0.83 - 2024e: Rmb0.83 - 2025e: Rmb1.03 - 2026e: Rmb1.16 [5] Table Turn Trends - **January Performance**: Table turnover was slightly positive month-over-month and flat year-over-year; during the CNY holiday, turnover was down less than 5% compared to CNY 2024 [8] - **Store Network Changes**: - Haidilao: 8 gross openings and 10 closures, resulting in a net decrease of 2 stores - YEAH Qing BBQ: 14 new openings [8] Valuation and Risks - **Valuation Methodology**: Target price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16x for 2025 estimated earnings, reflecting weaker consumption sentiment amid macro uncertainties [9] - **Growth Projections**: Projected 18% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for EPS from 2024 to 2026 [9] - **Risks to Upside**: Faster macroeconomic recovery, better-than-expected demand recovery, and quicker new store openings [11] - **Risks to Downside**: Slower recovery in table turnover, raw material cost inflation, and delays in new store openings [11] Key Metrics - **P/E Ratios**: - 2023: 15.9 - 2024e: 18.0 - 2025e: 13.6 - 2026e: 12.0 [5] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023: 60.4% - 2024e: 39.0% - 2025e: 34.7% - 2026e: 29.2% [5] - **Dividend Yield**: - 2024e: 5.0% - 2025e: 6.3% [5] Conclusion Haidilao International Holding Ltd is navigating a challenging demand environment but is positioned for potential growth through disciplined investment and operational strategies. The company's financial metrics indicate a cautious but optimistic outlook, with significant upside potential if macroeconomic conditions improve.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the impact of recent tariff policies on the US economy, particularly focusing on trade with China, Canada, and Mexico [6][7][8]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariff Implementation**: Tariffs on imports from China have been implemented at a rate of 10%, while those on Canada and Mexico have been delayed. This aligns with baseline assumptions regarding trade policy [6][7]. 2. **Federal Reserve Rate Cuts**: The expectation for Federal Reserve rate cuts has been adjusted to only one anticipated cut in June 2025, influenced by the recent tariff announcements and inflation concerns [6][9]. 3. **Inflation Outlook**: The imposition of tariffs is expected to create upward pressure on inflation, complicating the Fed's decision-making process regarding rate cuts. The Fed's focus has shifted from labor market risks to inflation risks [9][10]. 4. **Quantitative Tightening (QT)**: The timeline for the end of QT has been pushed to June 2025, reflecting a more cautious approach due to the current economic environment [10]. 5. **Labor Market Dynamics**: The January payroll increase of 143,000 is viewed as suppressed by adverse weather conditions, indicating a softer labor market than previously thought [12][13]. 6. **Core CPI Projections**: Core CPI is projected to rise by 0.37% month-over-month in January, with annual increases expected at 3.2%. This is influenced by factors such as wildfires and residual seasonality [21][41]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Economic Indicators**: The ISM manufacturing index has shown signs of stabilization, moving above 50 for the first time in nearly a year, indicating a potential recovery in manufacturing [32]. 2. **Small Business Optimism**: The NFIB small business optimism index has returned to pre-pandemic levels, reflecting improved economic expectations among small firms [36]. 3. **Retail Sales Forecast**: A decrease of 0.1% in retail sales is expected for January, primarily due to a decline in auto sales, while control sales are anticipated to rise by 0.3% [47]. 4. **Impact of Wildfires**: The California wildfires are expected to have a temporary impact on goods prices, but this is largely accounted for in the current economic models [21][47]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape and the implications of recent policy changes.

7 February 2025 Asia Tech Hardware Asia Tech Hardware: DeepSeek, Tariff... 4Q24 AI names earnings preview Alex Wang, CFA +852 2918 5703 alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com Shirley Yang, CFA +852 2918 5303 shirley.yang@bernsteinsg.com The recent sentiment correction in the AI supply chain comes sooner than we expected for 2H25 (sector outlook). This note discusses the implications of DeepSeek and the U.S. tariff on the supply chain and previews the 4Q24 earnings (late Feb to early Mar) for AI names. We think the DeepS ...

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** sector, specifically discussing trends observed during the **Chinese New Year (CNY)** holidays in 2025 [1][3]. Key Insights from Developers and Landlords - **State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)** reported flattish year-over-year (Y/Y) growth in property sales, with variations from "mild Y/Y growth" to a decline in the mid-teens [1][3]. - **Private-Owned Enterprises (POEs)** predominantly experienced a Y/Y decline in sales, with some reporting declines of approximately **30-40%** [1][3]. - For **shopping malls**, landlords noted a mild Y/Y increase in both same-store tenant sales and footfall, with overall tenant sales surging by over **10% Y/Y** [1][3]. Sales Trends and Seasonal Factors - The **CNY period** is traditionally a low season for property sales, and January and February are influenced by project launches [3]. - The **China Index Academy** reported an **8% Y/Y growth** in "28-city primary property sales" during CNY, but this figure may not accurately reflect actual sales due to delays in sales registrations [3]. - Developers indicated that discounts and rebates are still necessary to enhance sell-through rates [3]. Future Outlook - The month of **March** is anticipated to provide a clearer picture of sales sustainability, as the impact of policy easing from September 2024 will have mostly faded, and data will be less affected by public holidays [3]. - The overall estimate for February primary sales is a low single-digit Y/Y decline, similar to January [3]. Performance of Key Companies - **Stock Preferences**: The report highlighted preferences for **China Resources Land** and **China Resources Mixc** as favorable investment options [1][3]. - The report also provided a valuation summary for various companies in the sector, indicating different ratings and price targets [5]. Additional Observations - Luxury retail continues to underperform compared to the mass market, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [3]. - The continuity of a moderate recovery in tenant sales during CNY suggests a positive outlook for proxies like **CR Mixc** [3]. Conclusion - The insights from developers and landlords during the CNY period indicate a mixed performance in the China Property sector, with SOEs faring better than POEs. The upcoming months will be crucial for assessing the sustainability of sales trends and the overall recovery of the sector.

February 7, 2025 06:46 AM GMT Humanoids | Asia Pacific Catalysts Evolving Rapidly The humanoid market continues to be fueled by catalysts. Having reviewed past stock market rallies, in this report we summarize the three key factors driving the market and identify the near-term catalysts to watch. 2025 to herald the start of mass production: Key players, including Tesla, 1X, Agility, and UBTECH, have announced plans to produce thousands of humanoids in 2025, with other players targeting commercial operations ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: US-China Trade Relations - **Company**: Barclays Bank, Hong Kong Core Points and Arguments 1. **US-China Trade Deal Dynamics**: President Trump is perceived to desire a trade deal with China, but recent events, including the DeepSeek 'shock' and a "maximum pressure" strategy, have complicated negotiations [1][8][10] 2. **Tariff Impositions**: On February 4, 2025, the US imposed an additional 10% tariff on all imports from China, which was a significant escalation in trade tensions [3][10] 3. **Retaliatory Measures by China**: China responded with targeted retaliatory tariffs, including a 15% tariff on coal and LNG, and a 10% tariff on crude oil and agricultural machinery, reflecting a more measured approach compared to previous trade conflicts [12][15] 4. **Economic Impact Estimates**: The 10% tariff increase is expected to lead to a 0.4 percentage point decline in China's GDP growth over a 12-month period, with direct and indirect effects on consumption and investment [24][25] 5. **Potential Compromises from China**: China may offer compromises to ease trade tensions, such as increasing imports of US goods, allowing the sale of TikTok to a US company, and encouraging Chinese companies to establish manufacturing in the US [20][22] 6. **Future Trade Events**: Key upcoming dates include the implementation of China's tariffs on US goods on February 10, and the US tariffs on Mexico and Canada scheduled for March 4 [11] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Reactions**: The initial market shock from Trump's tariff announcements indicates the sensitivity of financial markets to trade policy changes [2][10] 2. **Strategic Focus on Energy**: China's targeting of US energy imports suggests a strategic approach to minimize economic impact while maintaining leverage in negotiations [14][15] 3. **Long-term Trade Relations**: The ongoing trade tensions highlight the complexities of US-China relations, with both sides needing to navigate economic interdependencies while addressing national interests [3][12][20]

07 Feb 2025 17:16:11 ET │ 29 pages Global Economics Global Indicators January Chartbook: The World in Pictures CITI'S TAKE V i e w p o i n t | The global services PMI cooled some in January, but it still stands at a solid 52.2 reading, while the global manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.1. Global labor markets meanwhile remain fairly tight with unemployment rates in most economies at or even below pre-pandemic levels. Global headline and core inflation have retreated appreciably from cycle highs but are still ...

February 7, 2025 12:44 PM GMT G10 FX Strategy | Global G10 Currency Summaries Morgan Stanley's top G10 FX strategy views including key fundamental catalysts and technical levels to watch. Key Takeaways USD View: Bearish | Skew: Bearish We are bearish on the DXY as we think US fiscal expectations have ample scope to unwind and US exceptionalism is largely priced. EUR View: Bullish | Skew: Bullish We see scope for market pricing of US neutral rates to fall versus the euro area, providing a tailwind for EUR/US ...

February 7, 2025 03:01 AM GMT § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates Lenovo | Asia Pacific Dec-Q smartphone shipments are better than than expected What's new? According to IDC, Lenovo shipped 14.6mn units (-2% q/q, +11% y/y) of smartphones in the Dec-Q; this is 2.4% higher than MSe and 3.9% higher than the Street. EMEA and India continue to be good areas of growth for Lenovo, with EMEA shipments up 16% q/q to ~2.7mn units and India growing 7% q/q to ~2.8mn units. Stay OW: We had mentioned in ...

IN8bio (INAB) Update / Briefing February 11, 2025 04:08 PM ET Company Participants Glenn Schulman - Vice President, Head of Investor Relations & Corporate CommunicationsWilliam Ho - Director, President, CEO, and Co-FounderLou Vaickus - Interim CMOMichael R. Bishop - Director of the David and Etta Jonas Center for Cellular Therapy Conference Call Participants None - AnalystRamakanth Swayampakula - Managing Director & Senior Research AnalystSoumit Roy - Biotech Research Analyst Operator Good day, ladies and g ...