Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Australian and New Zealand fixed income markets, particularly the interest rate strategies and economic indicators affecting these regions [2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Global Trade Policy Uncertainty**: The current global trade policy remains uncertain, which reinforces a bullish bias on yields in the fixed income market [2][4]. - **Australian Retail Spending**: Positive retail spending news in Australia does not challenge the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) forecasts, indicating a stable economic outlook [2][4]. - **Inflation Dynamics**: Recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports confirm that inflation dynamics in Australia have largely normalized, setting the stage for a gradual easing cycle [2][4]. - **RBA Rate Cuts**: A first RBA rate cut is fully priced for February 2025, with the overall pricing for 2025 appearing fair. The market anticipates a slight directional bias towards paying May RBA Overnight Indexed Swaps (OIS) with 55 basis points of cuts priced in [5][4]. - **New Zealand Labor Market**: New Zealand's 4Q labor market data shows rising unemployment, now up 1.7 percentage points from the trough, which may prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to implement another 50 basis point cut [17][4]. - **Mortgage Rates in NZ**: Despite new mortgage rates decreasing, average mortgage rates are still rising due to older mortgages rolling off, indicating a lack of cyclical traction in the New Zealand economy [27][4]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Positioning**: The report suggests staying received on AUD 3Yx1Y IRS and being underweight the belly of the ACGB Sep-26/Nov-28/Apr-33 fly, as this curve point is rich relative to the 3s/10s curve [2][4]. - **Cross-Market Dynamics**: The AUD has recently rallied on idiosyncratic factors, diverging from trends seen in other markets, which suggests a preference for intra-market expressions rather than cross-market trades [12][4]. - **RBNZ's Easing Cycle**: The RBNZ's rapid pivot to an easing cycle has seen NZD 1Yx1Y outperform AUD, but the market remains hesitant to push terminal rates materially below 3% [18][4]. - **Trade Recommendations**: The report includes specific trade recommendations such as receiving NZD 1Yx1Y IRS and holding NZGB Apr-33s against MMS [40][4]. Conclusion - The Australian and New Zealand fixed income markets are navigating a complex landscape of economic indicators, central bank policies, and market dynamics. The anticipated easing cycles in both countries, alongside the unique challenges faced by the New Zealand labor market, present both risks and opportunities for investors in these regions [2][4].

A fresh start for the new year Equity Research Report 6 February 2025 China Equity Strategy Equity Strategy DeepSeek a re-rating catalyst. The development of DeepSeek has attracted the attention of global markets – it reconfirmed China's continued ability to innovate, and in this note, we explore other evidence of China's underestimated innovation capability. In 2023, China accounted for an impressive quarter of global patent filings. However, the relatively low correlation between the CSI300's PE and China ...

February 6, 2025 01:11 AM GMT | Exhibit 1: | | | Solar products – Price summary | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2/5/2025 Polysilicon (Rmb/kg) Wafer-182mm | | Wafer-210mm | Cell-182mm | Cell-210mm | Polysilicon | Wafer-182mm | (USD/pc) Cell-182mm (USD/W) | | | | | (Rmb/pc) | (Rmb/pc) | (Rmb/W) | (Rmb/W) | (USD/kg) | | | | | Weekly ave | 39.0 | 1.18 | 1.55 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 21.00 | 0.16 | 0.04 | | | WoW | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | | | ...

Flash | 06 Feb 2025 03:05:49 ET │ 10 pages China Materials 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #12 – Steel Inventory and Consumption Data Tracker CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency on- ground demand trends in China – market expectation on demand recovery has been largely cautious. Our revised near-term pecking order is: Steel, Cement, Coal, Gold, Copper, Aluminum, and Lithium names (see our notes: China Steel – Shifting Our Near-term Sector Pecking Order and Chi ...

V i e w p o i n t | 05 Feb 2025 03:57:24 ET │ 13 pages Asia FX and Rates Strategy China: Bond Supply/Demand Dynamics – How To Measure "Asset Famine"? CITI'S TAKE We discuss China bond demand and supply outlook for 2025, and come up with a way to proxy demand-supply balance to measure the degree of "asset famine" in China. Under our base case assumptions, the "asset famine" may be somewhat less severe in 2025, but the overall bond demand-supply balance may still skew towards the demand side. Rohit Garg AC +6 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Indian economy, particularly high-frequency economic indicators for January 2025, indicating a mixed but gradually improving trend in economic activity [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Monetary and Fiscal Policy**: The combination of monetary easing and increased fiscal spending is expected to support economic growth in the upcoming months [1][2]. - **High-Frequency Data Trends**: - GST collections reached INR 1.96 trillion, marking a 12.3% year-over-year growth, the highest in nine months, compared to 7.3% in December [6]. - Central government capital expenditure (capex) rose to INR 1.7 trillion in December, a 95.3% increase year-over-year, significantly higher than the average of INR 640 billion from April to November [6]. - Manufacturing PMI increased to a six-month high of 57.7 in January, driven by higher export orders, while services PMI decreased to 56.5, the lowest since November 2022 [6]. - Credit growth improved to 11.5% year-over-year as of January 10, up from 11.2% in December [6]. - Vehicle registrations for two-wheelers showed recovery, while passenger vehicle registrations slightly moderated year-over-year [6]. - The Naukri Job Index grew at a slower pace, influenced by base effects [6]. - Air passenger traffic remained robust, and consumer sentiment showed resilience, although power demand weakened to 2.5% year-over-year in January [6]. Important Trends to Monitor - **Government Spending**: Continuous monitoring of both revenue and capital expenditure trends is crucial [3]. - **Agricultural Output**: The winter crop (rabi) output will be tracked to assess food price volatility and rural demand strength [3]. - **Domestic Liquidity**: Observing domestic liquidity and financial conditions is essential for understanding economic stability [3]. - **External Environment**: The impact of trade and tariff developments, as well as the Federal Reserve's actions, will be significant [3]. Additional Insights - The government aims to maintain its capex at 3.1% of GDP for FY2026, while also investing in social infrastructure [2]. - The expected rate cut of 25 basis points on February 7 is anticipated to further stimulate growth [2]. - The strength in services exports is seen as a positive indicator for employment prospects [2]. Conclusion - The Indian economy is showing signs of recovery, supported by strong government spending and improving high-frequency indicators. Continuous monitoring of these trends will be essential for assessing future growth prospects and potential investment opportunities.

Summary of J.P. Morgan Global Commodities Research - Oil Demand & Inventory Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global oil industry, specifically analyzing oil demand and inventory levels as of January 2025. Key Points Oil Demand - Global oil demand increased by 1.5 million barrels per day (mbd) year-over-year in January, reaching a total of 101.5 mbd, exceeding monthly projections by 200 thousand barrels per day (kbd) [2][4][86] - The demand for heating fuels in the U.S. has surged, with the four-week average distillate demand at its highest since March 2022 [4][86] - In Asia, travel volumes during China's New Year holiday rose by 8% compared to the previous year, surpassing the forecast of 7% [4][86] - India anticipates a significant increase in travel due to a religious pilgrimage expected to attract 450 million devotees between January and February [4][86] Oil Inventories - Global observable oil inventories (crude and products) saw a net increase of 7 mb in the last week of January, driven by a 20 mb rise in crude oil inventories, partially offset by a 13 mb decline in oil product inventories [4][86] - Throughout January, global observable oil inventories experienced a drawdown of 78 mb, primarily due to a 58 mb reduction in crude oil stocks and a 20 mb decrease in oil product inventories [4][86] - OECD commercial oil stocks reported a net reduction of 24 mb in January, with a significant 31 mb reduction in oil product stocks, while crude oil inventories increased by 7 mb [3][4][86] Regional Insights - Five economies reported their oil consumption statistics, indicating varied trends across regions [4][86] - The U.S. saw a notable increase in crude oil inventories by 9 mb, marking the largest weekly increase since February 2024, while oil product stocks fell by 11 mb due to heightened demand for heating fuel [4][86] Additional Observations - The report highlights the impact of seasonal factors, such as winter heating needs in the U.S. and holiday travel in Asia, on oil demand [4][86] - The data suggests a potential continuation of upward momentum in oil demand into February 2025 [4][86] Conclusion - The analysis indicates a robust recovery in global oil demand, driven by seasonal factors and increased travel activity, while inventory levels reflect a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics across different regions. The insights provided can inform investment strategies and risk assessments in the oil sector.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of tariffs on global equities, particularly focusing on the dynamics between the United States and its key trading partners, including Mexico, Canada, the European Union, and China [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Baskets**: J.P. Morgan has launched 11 new equity tariff baskets in collaboration with global equity strategists and analysts, covering approximately 1,000 companies to help investors navigate trade turbulence [2]. - **Current Tariff Situation**: The effective tariff rate on US imports is historically low at around 2.4%. However, proposed tariffs could significantly impact S&P 500 earnings, with an estimated EPS impact of ~$20, potentially erasing two-thirds of next twelve months (NTM) EPS growth [3][4][28]. - **Sector Exposure Changes**: - Mexico has increased its exposure to the US Auto and Industrial sectors, while Canada has seen a decline in Auto sector exposure but growth in Natural Resources [3][13]. - China’s leading export sector has shifted from Technology to Discretionary Retail due to tariff impacts [3][13]. - The EU, while largely unaffected in the current round, has a significant trade surplus with the US, which may become a negotiation target [3][4]. - **Market Volatility**: The market is expected to experience sudden bouts of volatility followed by recovery, with high stock dispersion being a consistent feature in 2025 [2]. Additional Important Insights - **Corporate Sentiment**: Negative sentiment has been observed in the Technology and Materials sectors, with a notable shift from the previous administration's focus on the Industrials sector [10]. - **Consumer Impact**: The implementation of tariffs could lead to an estimated annual cost of $2,000-$3,000 per household, particularly affecting low-end consumers who are already under pressure [12][33]. - **Trade Interdependence**: The interconnectedness of the US, Mexico, and Canada means that escalating trade tensions could pose significant challenges to their economies, especially for Mexico and Canada, which rely heavily on US exports [13]. - **Closing of De Minimis Loophole**: The potential removal of the de minimis exemption could lead to higher prices for consumer goods, significantly impacting e-commerce and retail sectors [14]. Conclusion - The evolving landscape of tariffs and trade policies presents both risks and opportunities for various sectors and companies. Investors should closely monitor these developments to assess their potential impacts on earnings and market dynamics.

Asia Pacific Equity Research 05 February 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Weichai Power - H/A (852) 2800 8503 jenny.qiu@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited Sunny Su (852) 280 ...

China Insurance Revisiting market volatility during trade tensions; sector's beta appears to be higher compared to 2018 China's insurers allocate a significant portion of their AUM to A-share equities (9-18% of AUM), which is equivalent to a substantial portion of their book value (1.1x on average). As such, the sector's stock beta remains above 1 (Table 1), making China equity market volatility critical to their stock performance. In addition, the regulatory environment has been updated, with a notable 30% ...