FICC Research Economics 10 January 2025 US Outlook When tempest tossed, embrace chaos Winds are blowing, literately and figuratively, intensifying uncertainty about what the flood of upcoming policy announcements on January 20 will mean for activity and rates. With activity resilient and disinflationary confidence intact, the FOMC seems content to downplay rate hikes. As the page turns to 2025, a figurative tempest... Much has happened since our most recent publication, on December 20, living up to expectat ...

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 11 January 2025 The J.P. Morgan View All Eyes on US: Balancing the AI Cycle, Trump Policies and a Narrowing Fed Path; Special Focus on Japan The broad and dominant theme of our 2025 macroeconomic and markets outlook remains the continuation of US exceptionalism. This should be reinforced this year by the AI theme, potential deregulation and changes in trade, fiscal and energy policies. Technological innovation and the broadening of the AI cycle will remain an importan ...

ab 10 January 2025 Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Global Research China 360 Household habits - new survey insights Smaller cities more upbeat In most categories, the share of consumers spending more in the past six months has been stronger in tier-3 cities than tier-1/2. In some segments, the trends clearly diverge: while the data suggest a rebound in the share of tier-3 consumers spending more on baijiu, this figure barely budged in higher-tier cities. The same pattern is evident in beer and soft drinks, ...

January 10, 2025 01:27 PM GMT Trip.com Group Ltd | Asia Pacific China BEST Conference Takeaways 4Q24 operations were well on track; 2025 revenue growth in the teens looks intact with stable domestic hotel ADR, further outbound recovery and market share gain, and rising contribution from Trip.com. Shareholder return is likely to step up as well. 4Q24 operation was on track and management is confident about teens revenue growth in 2025. Domestic: Hotel ADR for the company was flat YoY in 4Q, (better than the ...

10 January 2025 | 2:45PM JST Japan Economics Analyst Impact of US-China Tariffs: Can Japan Benefit? (Ota) Tomohiro Ota +81(3)4587-9984 | tomohiro.ota@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Akira Otani +81(3)4587-9960 | akira.otani@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Yuriko Tanaka +81(3)4587-9964 | yuriko.tanaka@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their inves ...

NORTH AMERICA | Energy Equity Research January 11, 2025 Need Ideas? What's Outperforming / What's Underperforming? This past week, S&P 500 Energy was up ~0.8%, outperforming SPX by ~253bps (+347bps/-1,209bps YTD/LTM). Within sub-sectors, NAM E&P was the best- performing and US Oilfield Services the worst (see below). Inside, we break down 1-week/QTD/YTD/LTM returns for the energy sector (by group and by company) incl E&P, Integrated, Refining, Oilfield Services, Midstream and LNG. We also break down returns ...

Key Points **Industry Overview** * **Semiconductor Sector Underperformed in 2024**: The Semiconductor sector underperformed the broader market in 2024, driven by moderation in AI stocks and underperformance in Semiconductor Capital Equipment and Analog/MCU. * **Outlook for 2025**: Goldman Sachs expects the Semiconductor and Semiconductor Capital Equipment sectors to outperform the broader market in 2025, driven by sustained outperformance in AI-enablers and a cyclical recovery in areas like Analog Semiconductors, MCUs, and Wafer Fab Equipment. * **Macroeconomic Backdrop**: The firm expects a favorable macroeconomic backdrop in 2025, with global GDP growth forecasted at 2.7%, supporting a cyclical recovery. **Sub-Sector Views** * **Compute/Networking**: AI-enablers like CRDO, NVDA, AVGO, MRVL, and ARM significantly outperformed in 2024. The firm expects demand for Compute and Networking to grow further in 2025/26 as model sizes and complexity evolve. * **Accelerated Computing**: The firm expects high demand for Accelerated Computing in 2025, driven by the ramp of next-generation accelerators and the low base. * **Networking**: Networking companies are expected to benefit from increased data rates and higher attach rates of Networking devices. * **Server CPU**: The general server market is expected to grow modestly in 2025, with AMD gaining share in server CPUs and Arm-based CPUs growing their presence in the Cloud. * **PC CPU**: The firm expects PC CPU shipments to remain soft in the near-term but improve in 2H25 driven by the end of life of Windows 10 and the proliferation of AI PCs. * **Broad-Based Semiconductors**: The firm expects another round of estimate cuts heading into and coming out of 4Q24 earnings season, but believes this will mark the 'last cut' this downturn. * **Automotive Semiconductors**: The firm remains positive on the long-term drivers of through-cycle growth in Automotive semiconductors, including Electrification and ADAS. * **Memory/Storage**: The firm expects industry bits to grow mid-teens (%) yoy in 2025 and pricing to stay relatively soft in the first half with a potential recovery in 2H. * **Semiconductor Capital Equipment**: The firm remains optimistic on the Wafer Fab Equipment market outlook for 2025 and 2026, driven by the transition to N2 at TSMC, continued strength in HBM, and a mild recovery in NAND. * **Semiconductor Materials**: The firm remains optimistic on the sub-sector as a whole and Entegris more specifically over the next 12 months, driven by factors like N2 ramp at TSMC and recovery in traditional end-markets. **Best Positioned Single Stock Ideas** * **NVDA**: The firm reiterates its Buy rating on NVDA, with a 12-month price target of $165 representing 18% potential upside. * **AVGO**: The firm reiterates its Buy rating on AVGO, with a 12-month price target of $255. * **MU**: The firm reiterates its Buy rating on MU, with a 12-month price target of $128. * **LRCX**: The firm maintains its Buy rating on LRCX, with an updated 12-month price target of $85. * **TER**: The firm maintains its Buy rating on TER, with a 12-month price target of $151. * **ENTG**: The firm maintains its Buy rating on ENTG, with an updated 12-month price target of $128. **Downgrades and Upgrades** * **Downgrade AMD to Neutral**: The firm downgrades AMD to Neutral from Buy, with a 12-month price target of $129. * **Upgrade NXPI to Buy**: The firm upgrades NXPI to Buy from Neutral, with an updated 12-month price target of $257. **Key Risks** * **Weaker-than-expected demand**: A weaker-than-expected demand for semiconductors could lead to downside risks for the industry. * **Supply chain disruptions**: Supply chain disruptions could impact production and lead to higher prices. * **Competition**: Intensified competition could impact pricing and margins. * **Regulatory changes**: Regulatory changes could impact the industry and its participants.

January 10, 2025 05:47 AM GMT Consumer Staples | Europe 2025 Themes and Stock Ideas Despite a year of sector underperformance, a still elevated rate environment is likely to limit sector appeal for now, making idiosyncratic calls key. We outline our main themes and stock changes for the year. Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: What's new? 2 rating changes and 2 new Top Picks Rating Change Top Price Target Change Old New Pick Old New Reckitt Equal-weight Overweight New Top Pick £46.00 £55.00 Diageo Underweight Underwe ...

10 January 2025 | 3:50PM CST China Solar: Corporate day takeaways: Steady global demand growth and potential for US module price hike We hosted four cell and module companies (JA Solar, Jinko Solar A, Trina Solar, CSI Solar A, all non-covered) at our China Solar Series on Jan 7 and 9. Key takeaways include: 1) 10%-15% yoy global solar installation demand growth guided into 2025E; 2) high possibility of module price hike in the US market; 3) more regulation needed to curb below-cost module price bidding in d ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the global rates market, focusing on the implications of recent economic data and central bank policies on interest rates and bond yields across various regions including the US, Europe, and Japan. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment on Rates** - The sell-off in rates was led by the front-end following the December payrolls print, indicating a shift in policy pricing that pressures risky assets. The market may be overestimating the upside risks around the rate path, but yields have not yet reached a self-correcting point [1][5][10]. 2. **US Federal Reserve Outlook** - Economists expect the Fed to cut rates only twice in 2025, with cuts anticipated in June and December, reflecting a shift in focus back to inflation risks. The softer average hourly earnings in December contributed to this outlook [2][5]. 3. **Global Yield Trends** - Recent upward pressure on US and global yields has been particularly pronounced in Gilts, with a notable sell-off in GBP currency. The upcoming data releases are critical for determining the trajectory of yields [1][21]. 4. **European Rates Dynamics** - European yields have also increased, influenced by the weakness of the EUR against the USD. The divergence in US-EU rates is attributed to trade policy uncertainties, with expectations of lower European yields over 2025 despite recent sell-offs [11][13]. 5. **UK Gilt Market** - The UK Gilt market faces increased uncertainty due to rising yields and a weakening GBP. The expectation is for the BoE to cut rates more than the market anticipates, which could help absorb elevated duration supply [21][26]. 6. **Japanese Wage Data** - Recent wage data in Japan supports expectations for a rate hike by the BOJ in January, with indications of increasing wage growth momentum. This could lead to higher JPY rates across the curve [22][26]. 7. **Inflation Pricing Vulnerabilities** - Front-end inflation pricing has unwound much of the post-election widening, aligning with forecasts of around 2.5% inflation by year-end. However, there remains vulnerability to tariff concerns that could pressure inflation expectations [10][26]. 8. **Sovereign Spread Reactions** - The recent sell-off in core rates has not led to significant widening in sovereign spreads, indicating a more muted reaction compared to previous instances of bearish impulses from the US [16][26]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Bank Regulation and Treasury Demand** - The potential easing of bank regulations could support demand for Treasuries, with estimates suggesting significant changes in bank demand for USTs based on regulatory adjustments [10][26]. 2. **Market Positioning and Flows** - The report highlights the current market positioning, indicating a mix of bullish and bearish sentiments among investors, with implications for future trading strategies [41][49]. 3. **Forecasts for G10 10-Year Yields** - The forecast for G10 10-year yields shows a gradual decline across various currencies, with specific projections for USD, GBP, and JPY yields over the next quarters [27][30]. 4. **Central Bank Actions and Market Impact** - The anticipated actions of central banks, including the Fed and ECB, are expected to influence market dynamics significantly, with implications for interest rates and economic growth [32][36]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the global rates market.