January 10, 2025 04:36 PM GMT China Materials | Asia Pacific Demand Tracker – January 10 The Ministry of Finance emphasized budget deficit rate increase and abundant fiscal policy tools in 2025. Production/sales of industrial goods: Lee & Man Paper's 4 major bases will suspend and reduce production by ~270kt during Chinese New Year. According to CISA, the crude steel output of key steel enterprises was 1.872mnt in late December, -5.3% vs. mid-December. In Dec 2024, global new ship orders are 194 CGT, down 5 ...

10 January 2025 | 6:59AM EST Global Healthcare: Pharmaceuticals Framing the 2025 M&A landscape for biopharma We are optimistic on the set-up for biopharma M&A in 2025, following subdued deal activity in 2024 (~$46bn vs. ~$143bn in 2023 and ~$72bn in 2022) given: (1) end-of-decade losses-of-exclusivity (LOEs) continues to weigh on growth outlooks and valuations of most large-cap biopharma (ex-LLY/NOVO, the group trades at an average of ~10.75x FY25E consensus EPS; Exhibit 1); (2) potential buyers' ~$500bn+ ( ...

Company-Specific Information * **Product Rollout**: Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAC) plans to launch 6 new products under its Aion and Trumpchi brands in 2025. This includes 3 brand new products and 3 facelifts for Aion, and 4 new products for Trumpchi. Sales contribution from these new products is expected to start from Q1 2024. [1] * **Huawei Partnership**: GAC has partnered with Huawei for product design and customer management. The first B-class luxury SUV under this partnership is expected to be launched in the second half of 2026. GAC aims to launch 4-5 new products in the near future, which management expects will support stable annual sales of 400-500k units. [2] * **GAC-Honda JV**: GAC-Honda's decision to reduce total capacity in 2024 resulted in a one-off impairment cost of approximately Rmb1.5bn for the joint venture. However, this move improved the total capacity utilization to a healthier level of around 70%, similar to the utilization rate of GAC-Toyota. Management expects both joint ventures to achieve decent profitability at this level of production. [3] Industry Information * **Economic Sanctions**: The research notes that the data and analysis are for informational purposes only and do not represent Morgan Stanley's view on the potential application of sanctions to any entities or securities mentioned. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with applicable sanctions. [4] * **Export Controls**: The research mentions that certain items covered by the Export Administration Regulations (EAR) may be subject to export control restrictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with applicable export control laws. [5] * **Industry View**: The research provides a detailed analysis of the China Autos & Shared Mobility industry, including stock ratings, price targets, and industry views. [7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78]

January 10, 2025 06:36 AM GMT 2025 Outlook: Banks | Japan New Era for Bank Stocks We stay bullish on bank stocks. Business conditions have turned favorable, and management teams are ever more focused on ROE. Business model reforms and aggressive corporate actions are catalysts. Key Takeaways Interest rates to force the market to be more selective on company-specific strategies: In the near term we think that only banks with differentiated strategies for profit expansion will be able to improve ROE, and that ...

Summary of Beijing Roborock Technology Co Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Beijing Roborock Technology Co Ltd - **Ticker**: 688169.SS - **Industry**: Consumer Electronics, specifically robotic cleaners - **Market Cap**: Rmb41,368.9 million - **Current Share Price**: Rmb223.80 - **Price Target**: Rmb281.00, implying a 26% upside from the current price [4][4][4] Key Points from the Conference Call 4Q24 Update - **Domestic Performance**: Strong GMV growth during Double 11 shopping festival, increasing by 140-150% year-over-year, attributed to trade-in subsidies and a wider pricing range [6][6] - **Overseas Performance**: Revenue growth by region in 4Q24: - Middle East: +70% YoY - Korea: +30% YoY - Australia: +270% YoY - Asia: +20% YoY - North America: +60% YoY during Black Friday - **Challenges**: Channel adjustments in Europe led to margin pressure [6][6] 2025 Outlook - **Product Penetration**: The company is optimistic about rising product penetration globally [2][2] - **10-Year Vision**: Plans to transition from a niche robotic cleaner company to a comprehensive player with mass-market product offerings [2][2] - **Pricing Strategy**: Intends to maintain competitive pricing for new armed robotic vacuum models [2][2] - **Tariff Preparedness**: Actively preparing for potential US tariff hikes through revenue diversification, mergers and acquisitions, and price adjustments [2][2] Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenue for the next fiscal years: - FY24: Rmb11,020 million - FY25: Rmb13,360 million - FY26: Rmb15,234 million [4][4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected EPS growth: - FY24: Rmb11.36 - FY25: Rmb14.73 - FY26: Rmb17.96 [4][4] - **Valuation Metrics**: Target P/E ratio of 19x for 2025 EPS, reflecting weaker macro conditions in China [7][7] Risks - **Upside Risks**: - Higher-than-expected consumer acceptance of robotic cleaners - Technological innovations enhancing user experience - Successful launch of new products [9][9] - **Downside Risks**: - Intensifying price competition - Economic slowdown domestically and globally - Market share loss to new entrants [9][9] Additional Insights - **Market Position**: The company is rated as "Overweight" by Morgan Stanley, indicating a positive outlook compared to the industry average [4][4] - **Stock Performance**: The stock has a 52-week range of Rmb335.71 to Rmb186.78, indicating volatility [4][4] This summary encapsulates the key takeaways from the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, outlook, financial projections, and associated risks.

UBS Investment Research Hong Kong Property Sector Five key investment themes in 2025 Mark Leung Analyst, mark.leung@ubs.com +852 2971 8636 John Lam Analyst, john-za.lam@ubs.com +852 2971 6358 Vera Gong Associate Analyst, vera.gong@ubs.com +852 2971 8950 Jan 2025 This document has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Ltd. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)** market in North America, focusing on the implications of current interest rates and regulatory changes on mortgage demand and valuations. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Interest Rates and Mortgage Demand** - Current interest rates are described as "defying gravity," with concerns that if they remain high, mortgage demand may decline significantly [1][5][19] - The 30-year mortgage rate is currently around **6.72%**, which is significantly higher than the coupon on the mortgage index of **3.3%**, indicating limited extension risk for MBS holders [17][18] 2. **Valuation and Funding** - Valuations for production MBS are considered compelling, with improved funding conditions noted [5][19] - The report highlights a **$22 billion** month-over-month decrease in total agency MBS gross issuance to **$96 billion** in December, with net issuance dropping to **$20 billion** [80][252] 3. **Regulatory Environment** - The resignation of Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr is expected to impact the regulatory landscape, potentially leading to favorable conditions for securitized products due to anticipated deregulation [174][258] - The report suggests that the likelihood of a capital-neutral endgame for Basel regulations is higher, which could benefit agency MBS and other securitized products [258] 4. **GSE Reform and Market Sentiment** - Ongoing discussions around GSE reform are likely to weigh on spreads until more clarity is provided [24][26] - Fitch Ratings indicated that if GSEs exit conservatorship while maintaining support, their ratings could align with the U.S. sovereign rating, which would be positive for MBS [24] 5. **Overseas Investment Trends** - Overseas investors net added **$8.7 billion** in agency asset-backed securities in October, despite a decrease in overall holdings due to valuation changes [142][145] - Japan and the UK were significant contributors to this net addition, while mainland China continued to reduce its holdings [143][145] Additional Important Insights 1. **Prepayment Speeds** - Prepayment speeds for 30-year conventionals slowed by **13%** in December, while Ginnies slowed by **10%** [250][251] - The slowdown in prepayment speeds is attributed to rising mortgage rates and seasonal factors [250] 2. **Market Dynamics** - The report notes that the market has traded well despite rising rates, with a recommendation to add long positions in specific MBS [243] - The lack of payup convexity is a concern, making it challenging to find cheap sources of convexity in the current market [246] 3. **Speculative Monitor** - The speculative monitor indicates that funding may be challenged until quantitative tightening (QT) ends, which could impact the performance of certain MBS [244][33] 4. **Future Outlook** - The outlook for MBS remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of improved demand from banks and overseas investors as regulatory conditions evolve [75][76] 5. **Analyst Recommendations** - Analysts recommend long positions in specific MBS swaps (e.g., long 6/4.5 swap) to capture carry and spread, while being mindful of potential risks related to supply and hedging challenges [76][243] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the Agency MBS market.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic environment, focusing on the US Treasury market, UK gilt market, and foreign exchange dynamics, particularly the US dollar. Core Points and Arguments 1. **US Treasury Yields and Economic Outlook** - The 10-year US Treasury yields are approaching 5%, raising concerns about fiscal credibility and the potential for tighter financial conditions by central bankers [1][2][3] - The market is currently neutral on duration, with expectations of a rate cut at the January FOMC meeting being reconsidered due to stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll data [3][55] 2. **UK Gilt Market Dynamics** - The 10-year gilt yield has risen approximately 20 basis points to around 4.85%, the highest since 2008, with the 30-year gilt at 5.40%, the highest since 1998 [27][28] - The recent sell-off in gilts is attributed to global factors and fiscal concerns, with a significant increase in net issuance expected, posing a headwind for valuations [35][36][41] 3. **Foreign Exchange and Currency Strategy** - The outlook for the US dollar (DXY) remains neutral for now, with expectations of weakness later in the year [4][44] - The correlation between GBP and gilt movements is being closely monitored, especially in light of potential early elections in Canada [4][44] 4. **Inflation-Linked Bonds and Breakevens** - Discussion on potential drivers of breakevens in the US and Japan, with a focus on core CPI fixing paths [5][5] 5. **Interest Rate Derivatives and Swap Spreads** - The analysis of conditional swap spread wideners is presented, suggesting that rate pricing may have deviated from economic fundamentals [7][57] 6. **Market Sentiment and Future Expectations** - The sentiment in the market is cautious, with a recommendation to maintain a neutral stance on UK duration and wait for stabilization in valuations [42][64] - The potential for further steepening in the yield curve is noted, with macro data expected to play a more significant role than supply considerations in the future [41][42] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Regulatory Developments Impacting Markets** - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr is expected to influence swap spreads and regulatory developments, with implications for bank capital requirements [82][92] - The potential for a pause in quantitative tightening (QT) could provide support for spreads, as spreads tend to tighten during QT periods [96] 2. **Historical Context and Comparisons** - Comparisons are drawn between the current bond sell-off and the September 2022 mini-Budget, highlighting differences in market dynamics and fiscal considerations [28][32][63] 3. **Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics** - The report discusses the behavior of foreign investors and their tendencies to engage in "buyers strikes" during specific periods, particularly around US presidential elections [58] 4. **Valuation Metrics and Market Positioning** - Current valuations in the Treasury market are noted to be attractive, with positive carry expected for the first time since June 2022 [76][78] 5. **Long-term Outlook for Bonds** - A bullish outlook for the government bond market in 2025 is suggested, with expectations of improved carry and rolldown profiles if the Fed follows through on anticipated rate cuts [75][78]

2025 Outlook: Gen-AI Moving up from Infrastructure to the Platform and Application Layer 9 January 2025 | 11:56PM PST Americas Technology: Software Selina Zhang We believe the CY25 playbook is to own high-quality franchises that can deliver modest upside to Street expectations while building solid foundations for Gen-AI, which we believe can support durable seat-based and consumption growth over the next 3-5 years with OpM leverage. We don't place much confidence in the old tech cycle coming back as custome ...

Prices may vary in areas outside metABCD ropolitan Washington. ESU V1 V2 V3 V4 Democracy Dies in Darkness tuesday, january 14, 2025 . Breezy, colder 34/21 • Tomorrow: Mostly sunny 34/19 B6 $4 Prosecutor defends his Hunter Biden work In report, special counsel rejects president's claim of political motivations BY PERRY STEIN AND MATT VISER The special counsel who pros- ecuted President Joe Biden's son Hunter defended his investiga- tion in a report released Monday, rebutting claims by the president and his f ...