Industry Overview * **Industrial Production**: Industrial production fell 0.3% MoM in October, slightly stronger than consensus expectations at -0.4%. The largest subset of manufacturing production declined 0.5% MoM. * **Temporary Factors**: The Federal Reserve indicated a 0.3pp drag from strikes and hurricanes during the month. These factors should rebound and boost IP in November. * **Underlying Trend**: The underlying trend of manufacturing activity remains subdued even without these temporary factors. * **Near-term Outlook**: The near-term outlook remains unclear. There could be some boost to activity from lifting of post-election uncertainty, but recently rising yields could weigh further on this ratesensitive sector. * **Survey Data**: Citi will be watching survey data like ISM manufacturing for any change in the outlook for still-soft underlying activity. Key Points * **Industrial Production**: Industrial production fell 0.3% MoM in October, slightly stronger than consensus expectations at -0.4% and Citi at -0.7% [6]. * **Temporary Factors**: The Federal Reserve indicated a 0.3pp drag from strikes and hurricanes during the month. These factors should rebound and boost IP in November [1]. * **Underlying Trend**: The underlying trend of manufacturing activity remains subdued even without these temporary factors [1]. * **Near-term Outlook**: The near-term outlook remains unclear. There could be some boost to activity from lifting of post-election uncertainty, but recently rising yields could weigh further on this ratesensitive sector [1]. * **Survey Data**: Citi will be watching survey data like ISM manufacturing for any change in the outlook for still-soft underlying activity [1].

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M Update November 15, 2024 01:21 PM GMT Loar Holdings Inc | North America Continuing to Execute on its Growth Strategy | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------|--------|--------| | What's Changed \nLoar Holdings Inc (LOAR.N) | From | To | | Price Target | $75.00 | $89.00 | Unchanged Modest upside Modest revision lower Impact to our investment thesis Financial results versus consensus Impact to next 12-month consensus EPS We see the move lower in the stock as largely overdone as gr ...

15 Nov 2024 14:36:08 ET │ 10 pages Global Commodities CBAM risks further straining the US-EU relationship as it targets €4 billion worth of US imports with an implied 10% tariff The first attempt to accurately compile the CBAM registry failed, underscoring the mechanism's limitations we previously detailed in Global Commodities - CBAM primer and how EU producers and importers could save up to €600 million on higher CBAM related costs from 2026. Moreover, during the second Trump presidency, CBAM risks furthe ...

Optical Networking Call Series: Accelink: Optical transceiver supply lagging vs. demand; competition dynamics a key to watch 14 November 2024 | 10:16AM CST We hosted Accelink (Not Covered) management on Nov 13th as part of our GS Optical Networking Call Series. Accelink is a major transceiver maker that focuses on China's domestic market. Our key takeaways from the call include: 1) EML supplies will continue to be tight into 2025; 2) China transceiver market is seeing strong demand but primarily in 400G pro ...

November 15, 2024 02:21 PM GMT Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Oct MS Forecast Retail & food services -1.1 0.7 0.5 -0.2 0.2 -0.3 1.2 -0.1 0.8 0.4 0.3 ex autos -0.8 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.5 -0.1 1.0 0.1 0.3 Control-group -0.4 0.0 0.9 -0.3 0.4 0.9 0.4 -0.2 1.2 -0.1 0.2 Autos -2.2 2.2 -0.1 -1.0 1.1 -3.6 4.4 -0.3 0.2 1.6 0.5 Gasoline -1.4 1.9 0.8 1.6 -2.2 -2.1 0.5 -0.9 -0.9 0.1 -1.1 Building materials -3.9 2.4 -0.2 0.4 -0.5 1.5 0.9 0.3 1.0 0.5 1.1 Restaurants -0.9 0.1 -0.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 1.2 0.7 0. ...

Industry/Company Involved * **Global Macro Outlook 2025**: The document discusses the global macroeconomic outlook for 2025, covering various regions including the US, Europe, China, and beyond. It focuses on growth prospects and investment opportunities across different asset classes such as equities, credit, commodities, and bonds. Core Views and Arguments * **Growth Prospects**: The document highlights that growth prospects for 2025 are positive, driven by factors such as improving economic conditions, increasing consumer spending, and supportive monetary policies. * **Tailwinds Overhead**: The document emphasizes that tailwinds are likely to outweigh headwinds, such as geopolitical tensions and rising inflation, leading to overall positive growth. * **Asset Class Performance**: The document provides insights into the expected performance of different asset classes in 2025. It suggests that equities and credit markets may benefit from improving economic conditions, while commodities and bonds may experience mixed performance. Other Important Content * **Research Areas**: The document mentions various research areas covered by Goldman Sachs, including inflation, central banks, private markets, consumer trends, and innovation in sectors like AI, fintech, and healthcare. * **Market Themes**: The document highlights key market themes for 2025, such as carbonomics, the Inflation Reduction Act, GS SUSTAIN, green capex, electrification in Europe, obesity, and China's transition. * **Research Products**: The document provides information about Goldman Sachs' research products and services, including the GS Factor Profile, M&A Rank, and Quantum database. * **Disclosures**: The document includes various disclosures related to the research report, such as regulatory disclosures, ratings distribution, and investment banking relationships.

M Idea Friday Finish – US Economics | North America November 15, 2024 09:13 PM GMT Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Seth B Carpenter Chief Global Economist Seth.Carpenter@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0370 Sam D Coffin Economist Sam.Coffin@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4630 Diego Anzoategui Economist Diego.Anzoategui@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-8573 Lenoy Dujon US/Canada Economist Lenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2779 Heather Berger Economist Heather.Berger@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2296 The Noise Continu ...

Industry and Company Analysis 1. **Global Economic Outlook** - **US Economic Growth**: The US economy is expected to grow 2.5% in 2025, outperforming consensus expectations and other DM economies for the third year in a row. [2] - **Euro Area GDP**: Cut to a below-consensus 0.8% due to structural headwinds and trade policy uncertainty. [3] - **China GDP**: Cut to 4.5% due to higher US tariffs partially offset by easier macro policies. [3] - **Inflation**: US core PCE inflation expected to slow to 2.4% by late 2025, with a risk of rising to 3% with a 10% across-the-board tariff. [4] 2. **US Economic Policy Changes** - **Trade**: New tariffs on China and autos, with a 3.4pp increase in the effective tariff rate for US imports. [14] - **Immigration**: Net immigration expected to slow to 750k/year. [14] - **Fiscal**: Lower corporate tax for domestic manufacturers to 15% and reinstating more generous corporate incentives. [14] - **Regulation**: Easier approval of energy projects, expanding LNG exports, and reversing restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions. [14] 3. **Impact on US GDP** - **Base Case**: A small hit to growth in 2025 (0.2pp) and a moderate boost in 2026 (0.3pp). [16] - **Risk Case**: Larger negative impulse from across-the-board tariff, with a net drag on growth averaging 1.0pp in 2026. [18] 4. **Impact on Europe and China** - **Euro Area**: Trade policy uncertainty could subtract 0.9% from GDP. [20] - **China**: US tariff increase expected to subtract 0.7pp from growth in 2025. [22] 5. **Global Growth Outlook** - **Global GDP**: Expected to average 2.7% in 2025, with US outperforming relative to consensus. [30] 6. **Inflation and Disinflation** - **US Core PCE Inflation**: Expected to slow to 2.4% by late 2025, with a risk of rising to 3.1% with a 10% across-the-board tariff. [37] - **Disinflation**: Expected to continue across major DM economies, with the US, UK, and Australia likely to cluster around 2½% by late 2025. [45] 7. **Monetary Policy** - **Fed**: Expected to cut rates to 3.25-3.5% with sequential moves through Q1 and a slowdown thereafter. [49] - **ECB**: Expected to continue sequential cuts and lower the terminal forecast to 1.75%. [51] - **BoE**: Expected to cut rates back to 3.75% by end-2025 and a terminal rate of 3.25% in 2026Q2. [51] - **Other DMs**: Expected to see more aggressive cuts in smaller DM central banks. [52] - **EMs**: Expected to see significant room for monetary easing given that policy rates remain far above neutral. [54] 8. **Market Outlook** - **Equities**: Expected to see modest positive returns across key asset classes, with US equities outperforming and EM equities likely to outperform fixed income. [79] - **Bonds**: Expected to see modest positive returns, with US Treasuries and Bunds/Gilts playing an important diversifying role in portfolios. [80] - **Commodities**: Expected to continue to benefit from a positive roll return, with lower contribution from price shifts. [79] 9. **Tail Risks** - **Broader Trade War**: Underpriced risk, particularly for its potential impact on Europe and some non-China EM economies. [67] - **Fiscal Risk**: Increased possibility of additional fiscal expansion and focus on the sustainability of the US public debt profile. [69] - **Inflation Risk**: Short-term inflation risks are two-sided, with short-dated US inflation swaps priced well above the forecast. [69] - **Oil Market**: Risks of breaking the $70-$85/bbl range are growing, with upside tail risk from Iranian supply and downside risk from ample supply and potential demand hurt by broader tariff action. [71] 10. **Investment Strategy** - **Maintain Exposure**: Maintain exposure to robust US economic outlook while protecting against key tail risks. [80] - **Diversification**: Use diversification to address some of the challenges, including US Treasuries, Bunds/Gilts, and mid-cap equities or a more equal-weighted allocation. [80] - **Options**: Use options to provide protection against macro tails, including long USD positions, long USD optionality, and upside in gold and oil. [82]

15 November 2024 | 4:25AM GMT to LT semiconductor demand. As such, ASML reiterated its guidance for 2030 and expects revenues of €44-60bn, which at the mid-point/upper end implies a CAGR of 10%/13% across 2025-30. Key takeaways include: 1) Reiterated guide for 2030 points towards continued strength of LT demand drivers, with the stock currently trading at a modest 2030 PE multiple suggesting scope for upside, 2) ASML reiterated its 2030 semis TAM outlook of >$1trn, with a weaker mature node / NAND memory fo ...