Core Insights - Royal Caribbean Group reported record fourth-quarter earnings, with revenue and adjusted EPS growth of 13% and 72% respectively, despite missing Wall Street's Q4 earnings expectations [2] - The company projected double-digit sales and adjusted EPS growth for 2026, with capacity set to rise nearly 7% [2] - Record bookings were achieved at the start of 2026, marking the best seven booking weeks in the company's history [4] Financial Performance - Royal Caribbean's stock increased by 16% this week, reflecting positive market sentiment [2] - The company earned $6.3 billion in operating cash flow last year and expects to spend $1.8 billion on maintenance capex in 2026 [5] - The current market cap stands at $80 billion, with a gross margin of 39.53% and a dividend yield of 1.20% [3] Future Outlook - Management plans to double the fleet of Celebrity River Cruises ships to 20 by 2031 and invest $5 billion in new initiatives in 2026 [4] - The company experienced a 6% decline in net cruise costs (excluding fuel expenses) over the past year, enhancing profitability [4] - Royal Caribbean's stock is considered reasonably priced at roughly 22 times free cash flow relative to its enterprise value of $100 billion, especially given its growth plans [5]

Intel could be close to a major foundry win.DigiTimes reported on Wednesday that Nvidia is planning to tap Intel's (INTC 1.14%) foundry for some manufacturing and advanced packaging needs beginning in 2028. Nothing has been confirmed, so this remains in the realm of rumors and speculation. However, it does line up with comments made by Intel management during the fourth-quarter earnings call.If this Nvidia rumor is true, Intel's foundry business will get a significant boost from the king of AI chips. A mix ...

Core Insights - Oracle's shares experienced a decline of up to 6.5%, attributed to a broader sell-off in AI stocks rather than company-specific news [1] - Microsoft reported strong quarterly results, with a 17% year-over-year revenue growth to $81.3 billion, but investor concerns about future AI profitability led to a drop in its stock by over 12% [2][3] - Oracle's recent financial performance included a revenue increase of 14% year-over-year to $16.1 billion and a significant rise in adjusted EPS by 54% to $2.26, but concerns about high capital expenditures persist [5][6] Company Performance - Oracle's remaining performance obligation (RPO) surged by 438% to $523 billion, indicating a substantial backlog [5] - The company spent $35.5 billion on capital expenditures, a significant increase from $10.7 billion in the previous year, raising investor concerns about the return on this investment [6] - Oracle's current valuation is approximately 31 times earnings, aligning it with other major tech companies, making its stock appear attractive given its backlog and lower valuation [6]

Core Viewpoint - The First Trust Low Duration Opportunities ETF focuses on income generation and capital preservation through a diversified portfolio of mortgage-backed securities [1][8]. Fund Performance and Holdings - Walkner Condon Financial Advisors LLC increased its holdings in the ETF by 80,543 shares during Q4, valued at approximately $4.03 million, raising the fund's total position to $21.04 million, an increase of $4.09 million from the previous period [2]. - As of January 20, 2026, the ETF's shares were priced at $50.15, reflecting a 7.28% increase over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 by 7.5 percentage points [5][6]. - The ETF's assets under management (AUM) stand at $5.71 billion, with a dividend yield of 4.07% [6]. Investment Strategy - The ETF is designed to provide exposure to a diversified portfolio of mortgage-related securities while maintaining a low duration profile, with a weighted average net effective duration of about 2.5 years [9][12]. - The fund allocates at least 60% of its assets to mortgage-related debt securities, targeting investors seeking stable income and reduced interest rate sensitivity compared to traditional longer-duration bond funds [12]. Investor Implications - The ETF holds over 1,000 mortgage-related securities, making it suitable for investors with shorter investment horizons or those looking to diversify their portfolios [9]. - The recent addition by Walkner Condon, while modest, may indicate confidence in the ETF's ability to generate income and achieve capital appreciation [10].

Core Viewpoint - ASML's stock has significantly increased over the past year, driven by its essential role in the AI market and the expected growth in demand for its lithography systems [1] Group 1: ASML's Role in AI Infrastructure - ASML is the largest producer of lithography systems and the only manufacturer of high-end extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, crucial for producing advanced chips [2] - Major foundries like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel rely on ASML's EUV systems to manufacture sophisticated chips, making ASML a key player in the AI infrastructure market [3] - The AI infrastructure market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 29.1% from 2025 to 2032, positioning ASML favorably to benefit from this expansion without facing competitive pressures from individual chipmakers [4] Group 2: Memory Market Recovery - ASML supplies lithography systems to memory chipmakers, including Micron, which utilize ASML's EUV and DUV systems for chip production [6] - The memory market has experienced cycles of boom and bust, with the last downturn occurring from 2022 to 2023 due to market stagnation and rising interest rates [7] - A new boom is anticipated in 2024 and 2025 as market conditions stabilize, leading to increased demand for AI-related memory chips and boosting ASML's EUV sales [8] Group 3: Financial Performance and Guidance - In 2024, ASML's net sales rose by 3% to €28.3 billion ($33.8 billion), with a flat gross margin of 51.3% and a 3% decline in EPS due to external factors [9] - By 2025, net sales grew by 16% to €32.7 billion ($39.1 billion), with an expanded gross margin of 52.8% and a 28% increase in EPS, driven by AI and memory market growth [10] - ASML's order backlog reached €38.8 billion ($46.4 billion) by the end of 2025, prompting the company to raise its 2026 revenue guidance to between €34 billion ($40.7 billion) and €39 billion ($46.6 billion), indicating a 12% growth at the midpoint [11] - Revenue is expected to reach between €44 billion ($52.6 billion) and €60 billion ($71.8 billion) by 2030, suggesting a 10% five-year CAGR from 2025 [12] Group 4: Valuation Justification - Analysts project ASML's EPS to grow at a 22% CAGR from 2025 to 2027, justifying its premium valuation despite a current price-to-earnings ratio of 42 times this year's earnings [13]

Company Overview - Pathward Financial is a diversified financial services provider focusing on innovative banking and payment solutions, leveraging expertise in commercial and consumer finance to drive growth and maintain a competitive position within the U.S. regional banking sector [8] - The company reported trailing-12-month revenue of $724.3 million and net income of $191.0 million as of September 30, 2025 [6][4] - As of January 20, 2026, shares of Pathward Financial were priced at $74.18, reflecting a 5.16% decline over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 Index by 17.67 percentage points [4][6] Recent Transaction - On January 20, 2026, Shepherd Wealth Management liquidated its entire position in Pathward Financial, selling 15,726 shares for an estimated transaction value of $10.06 million [2][4] - Following this sale, Pathward Financial represented 0% of Shepherd's reported assets under management (AUM), down from 6.7% in the previous quarter [4] Market Position and Performance - Pathward Financial's market capitalization is approximately $1.95 billion, with a current price of $74.18 [6][4] - The company's dividend yield stood at 0.27% as of January 20, 2026 [4] - The stock's 52-week range was between $64.45 and $88.66, with a trading volume of 181K and an average volume of 222K [5] Strategic Insights - The liquidation of Pathward Financial shares by Shepherd Wealth Management indicates a significant strategic overhaul, with the firm reallocating its investments towards water resources, which now constitute 27% of its portfolio [10][11] - This shift suggests a potential belief in better opportunities within water infrastructure and nuclear energy compared to traditional tech growth stocks [11]

Core Insights - 1-800-Flowers.com is experiencing a turnaround, with shares rising significantly after reporting higher-than-expected profits [1] - The company is focusing on efficiency and profitability by reducing marketing spend and restructuring its operations [2][5] Financial Performance - Revenue for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 decreased by 9.5% year over year to $702.2 million [2] - Adjusted net income increased by 11% to $76.7 million, or $1.20 per share, surpassing Wall Street estimates of $0.86 per share [7] Operational Changes - The company has shifted from an individual brand-based structure to a function-based operating model, leading to a reduction in workforce and operating expenses, which fell by $23.4 million to $221.1 million [5][6] - Management emphasizes that while top-line growth may take time, significant progress has been made in cost optimization and organizational streamlining [6]

Core Viewpoint - MP Materials has received a $400 million investment from the U.S. Department of Defense, along with a 10-year supply agreement for rare-earth metals, but concerns about the sustainability of price guarantees are affecting its stock price [1][2][3]. Group 1: Government Support - The U.S. Department of Defense is investing $400 million in MP Materials through preferred convertible stock [1]. - A 10-year supply agreement guarantees the purchase of neodymium-praseodymium at a minimum price of $110 per kilogram [2]. - Recent reports suggest that the Trump administration may not extend similar price guarantees to new projects, but existing contracts, including those with MP Materials, should remain binding [3]. Group 2: Stock Performance and Valuation - MP Materials' stock price has decreased by 9.4%, currently trading at $60.41, with a market cap of $12 billion [2][4]. - The stock has a P/E ratio of nearly 200, based on expected earnings of $0.31 per share in 2026, indicating that the stock may be overpriced [4]. - The company has reported losses for both 2024 and 2025, raising concerns about its ability to justify its current valuation [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF was initially expected to outperform the S&P 500 in 2025, but the S&P 500 delivered a higher return due to the AI surge [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Thesis - Small-cap stocks were trading at their greatest valuation gap relative to large caps in over 25 years, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.1 for Russell 2000 components compared to 5.0 for S&P 500 companies [3]. - Falling interest rates generally favor smaller companies, as they are more reliant on borrowed money, leading to increased investment in riskier assets like small-cap stocks [4]. Group 2: Current Outlook - Despite the S&P 500's outperformance, a 13% return for the Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF is considered solid historically, and the ETF is viewed as a long-term investment [5]. - The valuation gap between small caps and large caps has widened further, suggesting potential for small caps to outperform in the coming decade, similar to trends observed during the dot-com boom [6]. - Experts anticipate that interest rates will continue to trend lower, and regulatory support from the Trump administration may benefit small-cap companies [7].

Company Overview - Knife River is a leading U.S.-based supplier of aggregates-based construction materials and related contracting services, operating across multiple regional segments [5] - The company generates revenue through the extraction, processing, and sale of aggregates and related materials, as well as through construction contracting services supporting public infrastructure projects [8] - As of January 27, Knife River's market capitalization is $3.91 billion, with a revenue of $3.05 billion and a net income of $148.32 million [4] Recent Developments - On January 28, Headland Capital disclosed that it sold all 63,636 shares of Knife River, with an estimated transaction value of approximately $4.89 million [2] - Despite a solid recent earnings report, Knife River's shares are down more than 31% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 by 47.5 percentage points [3][9] - The company reported record third-quarter revenue of $1.2 billion, up 9% year over year, driven largely by acquisitions and pricing gains [6] Market Position and Challenges - Knife River's backlog reached a record $995 million, with approximately 87% tied to public infrastructure projects, most of which are expected to convert within a year [6] - The company is facing margin pressures in certain regions and has experienced weather disruptions affecting volumes [9] - In Oregon, Knife River is working to "right-size" its team and find operating efficiencies to adapt to current market conditions [9]