Investment Recommendations - Recommends Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) for risk-averse middle-class Americans, guaranteeing a real return [1] - Suggests avoiding market speculation due to its zero-sum nature, where individuals are likely to lose [1]

Currency Devaluation - Fiat currencies, including major currencies, are expected to decline in value [1][2] - This devaluation is anticipated to be similar to the 1970s or 1930s, where fiat currencies devalued collectively [1][2] - The decline is relative to hard currencies, specifically gold [2] Gold as a Reserve Currency - Gold is now the second-largest reserve currency [2] - The ranking of reserve currencies is: US dollar, gold, euros, yen, and so on [2]

I don't think anyone doubts that AI is a gamecher for society in in in the years ahead. But is the scale of of impact it's going to have on our lives already priced into the equity markets. Do you think.I think that the pricing of supercalers, the obvious AI labels on them, particularly the ones that have done very well like the and the Magnificent 7 um have become uh rather expensive uh uh relative to uh what um even optimists would say are the uh present value of the future. your cash flows. I um how havi ...

Why are UK debt costs higher than the US, significantly higher than Germany, Japan. When you you look at a snapshot and our deficit is smaller than the US, our debt, accumulated debt is smaller than the US uh as a percentage of GDP. It's a hell of a lot smaller than Japan.What is it that means our debt costs in the UK are higher. First, I'll say, hey, it's not like your picture, your financial picture is good. It certainly isn't good.And so, you're right to ask the question perhaps on a relative basis, but ...

In democracies, people vote for their interest. Why are our policies this way where it is so to do with polarity. It's so to do with this sort of push and pull that seems to go in either direction.Well, it's a it's the same as in the 1930s in particularly in Europe, but to some extent in the United States. Plato in his book the republic you know a couple of thousand years ago more than that wrote about it in democracies people vote for their interest and so what happens is the majority of people want to say ...

You point out that the United States is no longer one of the happiest countries. It's fallen out of the list of the top 10. You ask, you know, why that is.Happiness has been studied by psychologists all around the world. Then they show that uh the most important influence on happiness is uh community. that basically if you have your basics covered, basic education, your health care, environment, being healthy, that past that basic level, the most important thing is community.And so in the United States, unf ...

You know, you've talked about how tariffs actually can refill the coffers, but at what cost. Who's paying those tariffs. And that makes me wonder, will it be a ding to the economy or a bruising if prices do go up.Well, there's smart tariffs and there's not smart tariffs. And and what uh think about it this way, every tax has a pro and a con, right. So if I was to say is are tariffs worse than capital gains tax for the market or other another kind of tax.Not necessarily. So it has to be engineered in the rig ...

Since the beginning of this year, the dollar against the basket of currencies is down about 10% in value. Um, and many people are worried that there might continue that way, be devalued. Some people say it's not a bad thing because we can buy u things, we can sell things more cheaply overseas and increase our exports.But if people are worried about the dollar going down in value, what would you suggest they do. Buy other currencies or go buy things that are not dollar denominated. The thing that we have to ...

Economic Cycles - The economy functions like a machine, driven by short-term and long-term debt cycles [4] - Short-term debt cycles, typically lasting 5 to 8 years, are primarily controlled by the central bank through interest rate adjustments [5] - These cycles involve expansion fueled by credit, leading to inflation, followed by contraction (recession) when the central bank raises interest rates [1][2][3] - Long-term debt cycles occur because debts rise faster than incomes over decades, leading to a debt burden [6] - The ratio of debt to income is called the debt burden, which remains manageable as long as incomes rise [7] Debt and Credit - Spending increases are fueled by credit, which can be created instantly [1] - When credit is easily available, there's an economic expansion; when it's not, there's a recession [4] - Rising incomes and asset values help borrowers remain creditworthy for a long time, even with accumulating debt [8] - At some point, debt repayments grow faster than incomes, forcing people to cut back on spending, leading to a reversal of the cycle [9] - Debt burdens become too big, leading to deleveraging, as seen in 2008 in the United States and Europe [10][11] Inflation and Deflation - Inflation occurs when spending and incomes grow faster than the production of goods, causing prices to rise [1] - The central bank raises interest rates to combat inflation [2] - Deflation occurs when people spend less, causing prices to go down, leading to a recession [3] Human Behavior - People have an inclination to borrow and spend more instead of paying back debt, pushing the economy [5] - Lenders freely extend credit because everyone thinks things are going great, focusing on rising incomes and asset values [6] - People borrow huge amounts of money to buy assets as investments, causing their prices to rise even higher, creating a boom and potentially a bubble [8][7]

In a few hours, I'm doing a Reddit ask me anything since I'm at a stage in my life that I want to pass along whatever I have that could be of value to others. Most importantly, principles for dealing with life, work, the changing world order, debt, money, and markets. I expect that we'll talk about those things, but you can ask me anything. So, I hope that I'll see you then. ...