One way or another, you have to bring debt the deficit not only in the United States but other places but I'm focusing on the United States down to from a supply demand point of view down to about 3%. So that's the 3% of GDP that that's an amount that the market I think can digest. Um it will um affect also the supply demand.There are when I say three parts I think when we think of budgets we think of taxes and spending um but also interest has a huge effect. um a 1% change in the interest rate, 100 basis p ...

Welcome to very special conversation with uh Ray Dalio who has agreed to share with this audience thoughts that led him to publish his most recent book. Today we face a future in which growth is slow and that is very high. To me reading this book uh was a great um professional enjoyment because it is about a complicated topic.What a gift you are giving us uh with your time and your wisdom. I learned through my experience that many important things that uh came at me never happened in my life before but happ ...

Economic Cycles - Monetary, domestic, political, and social orders experience cyclical breakdowns and renewals [1] - These cycles involve periods of trauma, credit building, and prosperity, often following wars or crises [2] - A combination of monetary order breakdowns, debt crises (like 2008), and internal political dynamics can lead to serious consequences [3] Historical Context - The second industrial revolution and the panic of 1907 exemplify historical cycles [2] - 1945 marked the beginning of a new monetary order [1] Investment Strategy - Considering these issues simultaneously can provide insights into the current economic standing [4]

Ocean Exploration & Conservation - The organization is celebrating World Ocean Day and promoting ocean exploration [1][2] - The organization is participating in the United Nations Ocean Conference in France, focusing on ocean protection and exploration [1] - The conference will gather world leaders, explorers, and scientists [1] Media Promotion - The organization recommends the "Ocean Explorers" series on Disney Plus [2]

when we see talk about a weaker dollar at the same time as we see uh talk about an easier monetary policy and so on, we have to understand that one man's debts are another man's assets. And so if you weaken the dollar and you and you produce more money, which is are the things we're considering now that are being considered that that lessens the value of the money that holders of that debt are going to get paid back with. So that is the nature of the tradeoffs that are faced and are inevitable when there's ...

Macroeconomic Analysis & Debt Problems - The author, a global macro investor with 50 years of experience, aims to share indicators of debt problems with policymakers and individuals [1][2] - The author's book, "How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle," is launched, focusing on critical times and debt problems [1] - The book addresses a significant situation with implications for almost all markets and the economy [2] Investment & Financial Strategy - The author has a track record of making profitable bets by identifying indicators of debt problems [1] - The author encourages readers to engage in discussions about the book's ideas on social media [2]

Economic Cycle & Competitiveness - Leading countries' increased wealth leads to higher labor costs, reducing competitiveness compared to countries with lower labor costs [1] - Other countries imitate leading powers' methods and technologies, further diminishing the leading power's competitive edge [1] - Increased wealth leads to decreased work ethic, focus on leisure, and potential decadence [2][3] - Generational shift from wealth creators to inheritors results in less resilience and increased vulnerability [3][4] Financial Vulnerabilities - Prosperity leads to increased risk-taking and borrowing, creating financial bubbles [4] - Reserve currency status encourages excessive borrowing, leading to large debts with foreign lenders [6] - Short-term spending power is boosted, but long-term financial health and currency value are weakened [7] - Borrowing sustains power beyond fundamentals, financing overconsumption and military conflicts [7] Social & Political Implications - Wealth gaps widen due to the rich reinforcing their power through privileges like better education and political influence [5] - Growing wealth inequality leads to resentment and a perception of unfairness, potentially causing conflict if living standards decline [5][6]

Economic Cycles - Economic cycles typically last about six years from one recession to the next [2] - Central banks inject money and credit into weak economies, causing market increases and increased spending, eventually leading to inflation [2] - Inflation prompts tightening of monetary policy, causing economic recession [3] - Since 1945, there have been 12 and a half economic cycles [3] Debt and Income - Debts are rising relative to incomes in most countries [3] - High debt relative to income and expensive debt service crowd out other spending [4] - Investors may sell debt if it doesn't provide good returns, leading to a change in the big debt cycle [4] Big Cycle and Political Disruption - The big debt cycle typically corresponds with the big domestic political and social cycle [4] - Disruption to wealth and well-being leads to political disruption [4] - Increased fighting over wealth and power creates new conflicts and seismic shifts [5] - These periods of great change are periods of great risk for markets and society [5]

What bit of advice would be maybe the most important bit of advice that I can give at this time. And it would be don't get hung up in the dayto-day. Every day you can read the news and it's some event and you're being dragged along and with that step back and see the bigger picture.That's why when I'm dealing with the these bigger pictures in in the books I write or communications like this I'm having having I want you to see the bigger picture and number two have a game plan for it a game plan like even fo ...

A lot of you have been asking me about AI. You know, what I think of that, how I'm using it. AI is something that began in 1956 and it's evolved in its various ways and now I love it more than ever.So, I'm integrating it into my decision- making. I think the important thing to know about AI is that um it's not just um the versions that you get and you ask questions and work as a partner with that um more importantly it is um your ability to work with a tool that can make decisions for you in parallel with y ...