Investment Strategy - Real estate is not considered a good investment idea due to its sensitivity to interest rates, even more so than to inflation [1] - Real estate's fixed nature makes it an easily taxable asset, reducing its effectiveness as a diversifier [2] - Real estate lacks the portability of other assets, limiting its diversification benefits [2]

The most important thing is uh um the basics. Educate your children well so that they can be productive and they're civil so that they work well together. Come out to a civil society in which there's productivity and that there's a good capital markets and a good environment so that there's good income and get the basics, the fundamentals right, meaning earn more than you spend, have more assets than liability, a good income statement, a good balance sheet.If you do those basic things, most people productiv ...

Global Trade & Currency Dynamics - A country's currency becomes the preferred global medium of exchange when it leads international trade [1] - This currency then becomes the preferred storehold of wealth and the world's leading reserve currency [1] - Historically, the Gilder, pound, and dollar have served as reserve currencies when the Dutch, British, and US led world trade, respectively [1] Reserve Currency Advantages - China's currency is increasingly being used as a reserve currency [2] - Having a reserve currency allows a country to borrow more than others, providing a significant advantage [2] - Countries without a reserve currency do not have the same borrowing power [2] Risks & Historical Parallels - A country with a reserve currency can print more money when it runs out [3] - The privilege of a reserve currency can lead to increased borrowing and the beginning of a financial bubble [3] - This pattern of financial, political, and military power bolstered by reserve currency borrowing has been observed throughout history [3][4]

Monetary Policy & Gold - The US dollar was once backed by gold, but that system ended [1] - Devaluation and lack of confidence in fiat systems historically lead to a return to linking money to gold [1] - Printing money to pay debt leads to a lack of confidence, potentially triggering a relinking to gold [1] - A relinking of gold to money is conceivable, but far in the future [2]

Is China uninvestable until this tariff war or these tariff tensions are fixed. I think for many countries there are be very big risks and the important thing is to pick your size of your exposure. In other words, I my mantra is 15 good uncorrelated return streams.I think you have to have diversification and that China as a small piece should be part of that diversification. All things considered, if it's not a geopolitical and you're not instructed to do otherwise, by and large, I think that some element o ...

Credit and Debt Dynamics - The US economy's total credit is approximately $50 trillion, significantly exceeding the total money supply of about $3 trillion [1] - Credit's impact is contingent on its use; it is detrimental when it fuels unsustainable overconsumption but beneficial when it efficiently allocates resources and generates income for debt repayment [3] - Borrowing facilitates increased spending, enabling incomes to temporarily outpace productivity, though this is unsustainable in the long term [2] Economic Cycles - Credit creation fosters self-reinforcing economic patterns, but borrowing inherently generates cycles, necessitating eventual corrections [5] - The economy demonstrates how credit amplifies spending and income, illustrated by examples of individuals leveraging credit cards to spend beyond their immediate earnings [4][5]

Now, I'll take you through the big cycle in more detail. Give me 20 minutes and I'll give you the last 500 years of history and show you the similar patterns across the Dutch, British, US, and Chinese empires. 500 years of big cycles.I'm going to describe the typical cycle by dividing it into three phases. The rise, the top, and the decline. The rise.Successful new waters that rise, both internal and external, are typically started by powerful revolutionary leaders doing four things. First, they win power b ...

Economic Outlook - The US may face economic challenges in approximately three years [1][3] - Moody's downgraded US debt, becoming the third ratings agency to do so [1] - Failure to address the debt issue could lead to an "economic heart attack" due to supply-demand problems [3] Fiscal Policy - Cutting the deficit to 3% of GDP is possible by adjusting spending and tax income by 4% each [2] - Achieving a 3% GDP deficit could lead to lower interest rates [2] - A balanced approach, where everyone contributes, is necessary to achieve fiscal stability [2]

The Dutch rose to defeat the Hapsburg Empire and become superbly educated. They became so inventive that they came up with a quarter of all major inventions in the world. The most important of which was the invention of ships that could travel around the world to collect great riches and the invention of capitalism as we know it today to finance those voyages.They like all leading empires enhance their thinking by being open to the best thinking in the world. As a result, the people in the country become mo ...

Monetary Policy & Currency Devaluation - Japan printed money to buy bonds, maintaining lower interest rates (3% lower than the US) [1] - Japan devalued its currency by an average of 4% [1] Investment Losses & Economic Impact - Japanese bonds lost 45% relative to US bonds and 60% relative to gold [2] - Japanese workers' monthly earnings decreased from $3,500 to $2,500 (in dollar terms) [2] - Japanese workers' monthly earnings decreased from 13 ounces to 1 ounce of gold equivalent [2] - Investors holding yen-denominated bonds or currency against the dollar would be down approximately 84% [3] Book Promotion - A new book titled "How countries go broke the big cycle" is releasing on June 3rd [3]