AI Agent Transition & Productivity - The industry is transitioning from AI assistants to AI agents capable of performing longer-form tasks using multiple tools and personal/business context [1][2] - This transition is expected to drive significant productivity gains as AI agents handle more complex and valuable tasks [2] - Improvements in AI technology, cost declines, and product development are fueling the advancement of AI agents in both consumer and enterprise applications [3] Market Adoption & Consumer Trends - OpenAI launched an agent product integrated into ChatGPT, which has over 700 million weekly active users [4] - Meta reported that sales of Meta Ray-Ban glasses tripled year-over-year from the first half of 2024 to the first half of 2025, indicating growing consumer adoption [7] - Personal AI agents are expected to become the first point of contact for accessing products and services online, potentially disrupting traditional search and marketplaces [10] Enterprise Applications & Software Development - Customer service and software development are currently the highest-value use cases for AI in the enterprise [12] - AI-native development environments (IDEs) are experiencing rapid growth, with companies like Cursor and Replit seeing revenue increase by more than 10x from Q4 last year to halfway through 2025 [14] - Cursor's ARR grew from $50 million to over $500 million, with rumors suggesting it's approaching $1 billion [14] - Businesses are reallocating hiring plans towards revenue-driving roles, adjusting for the impact of AI on software development and customer support [13] Monetization & Investment - While net new ARR growth for public enterprise software companies has decelerated, AI companies in the private market are experiencing rapid growth [18] - There is a willingness to pay for high-priced monthly subscriptions (over $200) for access to advanced AI models like ChatGPT, Claude, and Grok [19] - Business spending on software is expected to accelerate throughout the decade, reaching investment levels not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic [17] Open Source Models & Geopolitical Competition - China has emerged as a leader in open-source AI models, surpassing US companies in model performance [20][21] - OpenAI released its first open-source model since GPT-2 in response to the growing competition from Chinese open-source models [22]

Hi, I am Kellen Carter. I am the chief compliance officer and corporate counsel here at Arc Invest. I started my career at the SEC during the time of the financial crisis in in 2010.So, it was an very exciting time. I was an examiner and an attorney and we largely looked at uh macro risk in the market and we examined investment companies and investment advisors uh similar to ARC. And because I was at the SEC, I was exposed to a very wide variety of advisors and ETFs.And I recognized that ARC was on to somet ...

Productivity Growth & Economic Outlook - Productivity surges tend to occur at the beginning of recoveries after recessions [2] - The fact that productivity has held up well during the rolling recession suggests a secular change in productivity growth [2] - The company anticipates productivity growth could reach 5% or more, sustained for a longer period [3] Technological Drivers - New technologies such as robotics, energy storage, AI, blockchain technology, and multiomic sequencing are expected to drive significant productivity gains [3] Correlation of Economic Indicators - GDP growth and productivity growth are typically highly correlated on a year-over-year basis [1]

Cryptocurrency Characteristics - Bitcoin has a capped supply of 21 million coins [1] - Bitcoin utilizes a proof-of-work consensus algorithm to secure the network [1] - Bitcoin's supply schedule is predictable and known in advance [1] - Ethereum employs a proof-of-stake consensus algorithm, requiring users to lock up Ethereum tokens [2] - Ethereum has an elastic supply, which can be inflationary or deflationary based on the amount of Ethereum staked and network fees [2] Use Cases - Bitcoin is primarily considered a store of value, often referred to as digital gold [2] - Ethereum is a developer platform that is Turing complete, enabling programming on top of it [3] - Ethereum is suitable for building applications and financial primitives [3]

Bitcoin and Crypto Market Risks - Bitcoin market is subject to rapid changes and uncertainty, with investments potentially susceptible to fraud and manipulation due to a lack of regulation [1] - Bitcoin investments carry unique risks, including price volatility, lack of liquidity, and theft [1] - ARK strongly encourages investors to consult with a financial professional before investing in Bitcoin or any other digital asset [2] Tether (USDT) and Stablecoins - USDT was created in 2014 to facilitate the movement of digital dollars across exchanges at the same speed and low friction as Bitcoin [11] - USDT's initial version ran on the Bitcoin layer (Omnilayer) before Ethereum became prominent [15] - Tether's USDT market cap grew from $4-6 billion at the beginning of 2020 to over $40 billion by the end of 2020, reaching $163 billion currently [18][19] - USDT's utility expanded from pure crypto trading to real-world applications, especially in emerging markets where it serves as a digital dollar alternative [20] - Tether holds more than 130 billion US dollars in US Treasuries, over 90 tons of gold, and more than 100,000 Bitcoin as part of its reserves [45][46] - Tether's reserves are more than 103% collateralized, with $2 billion more in liquid assets than the total outstanding USDT tokens [47] - Tether has a gold-backed stablecoin called Tether Gold (XAUt), valued at 800 million US dollars [52] Regulatory and Transparency - Tether releases quarterly attestations by BDO, a top-five auditing firm, to independently confirm its reserves [55] - Tether is incorporated in El Salvador and regulated under its regulatory regime for stablecoins [56] - Tether works with over 250 law enforcement agencies across more than 50 countries [57] - Tether guarantees the value of its stable currency, with every USDT redeemable for 1 US dollar minus redemption fees of 10 basis points [57] Future Plans and Market Dynamics - Tether is exploring new products for developed markets, including the US, to bring new utility to users beyond the existing stablecoin model [59] - The Genius Act has opened the door for banks and institutions to launch stablecoins, increasing competition in the market [58] - Commodity traders are increasingly using USDT to close commodity trading deals due to its widespread adoption and stickiness in emerging markets [59] - Stablecoins can eliminate inefficiencies in the transaction process, reducing both costs and time, which are particularly beneficial in emerging markets [59]

FDA Regulation and Drug Approval - The FDA's drug and biological approvals, including gene therapies, are under scrutiny following the departure of Dr Assad [3] - The FDA commissioner aims to recalibrate standards for more efficient regulatory pathways, leveraging AI and big data to improve the drug approval process [10][11] - The industry anticipates the incoming head of the division handling biologics to share the same priorities of improving the FDA and facilitating innovation [12] - The FDA is considering approving rare disease therapies at the first sign of promise, recognizing the lack of meaningful disease-modifying options for these patients [19] Gene Therapy and Clinical Trials - A gene therapy from Sarepta Therapeutics for Duchenne muscular dystrophy faced safety concerns due to patient deaths, leading to a temporary halt of shipments [4][5] - Patient advocacy groups expressed devastation over losing the gene therapy option, which could potentially halt or reverse disease progression [6] - Acute liver failure was linked to the deaths of teenage boys in the Sarepta Therapeutics trial, potentially due to higher doses per kilogram in older patients [13][14] - AI can be embedded into clinical trials to simulate and explore avenues, potentially preventing patient deaths and improving the success rate of getting the right drugs to the right patients faster [16][17] Genomics and AI - The industry is excited about the potential of gene editing for common diseases like cardiovascular disease, building on the proof of concept in rare diseases [21] - CRISPR Therapeutics is developing gene editing therapies targeting genes involved in liver metabolism to address cardiovascular disease [22] - Advances in AI are unlocking new possibilities in genomics, enabling better target design, faster pre-clinical studies, and improved clinical trial design [30][31][32]

We probably are going to see interest rate cuts in the future. I think the the the odds for a rate cut in September are up to 88% and a 50 basis point rate cut maybe they're up to 25% or so. So we think that will resolve positively as well.That's the one uncertainty. And the reason this matters is if people think rates are going to come down, then they're going to wait and see how low they go before they take major actions or make big purchases. So getting back to some kind of equilibrium is going to be imp ...

Hi, I'm Charles Roberts, uh, chief investment strategist and head of venture at ARC. Uh, backgroundwise, I was a surgeon, then moved into being a biotech entrepreneur, founded several different biotech companies, including mainly at the intersection between AI and genomics. At ARC, uh, primarily I lead venture where we have a broad deep tech portfolio across private and some public companies.I work on both strategic side and day-to-day operational management leadership of the team and working very closely w ...

Economic Outlook - The employment report is weaker than expected due to downward revisions, raising recession fears, but the analysis suggests a "rolling recession" [2] - The expectation is for a strong recovery, possibly starting as a "rolling recovery", with upside surprises in real growth and productivity, and downside surprises on inflation by the midterm elections next year [5][6] - Geopolitical risks remain, particularly concerning Russia-Ukraine, China, and Mexico, but the biggest uncertainty is the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy [7][8] Fiscal Policy - Year-to-date deficit as a percentage of GDP has shrunk from approximately 73% to 62% [10] - Tariffs are annualizing at an estimated $450 billion per year, potentially leading to a deficit of roughly 47% of GDP [10] - The analysis suggests that the deficit as a percentage of GDP could reach 3% by the end of 2026, two years ahead of the Treasury Secretary's objective [11][12] - Approximately 75% of capital spending will benefit from permanent expensing, which is expected to attract manufacturing back to the United States and boost productivity [18] - Factoring in expensing, the US corporate tax rate could effectively drop to the 12-14% range [19] Monetary Policy - Despite Chairman Powell's hawkish tone, the data suggests the Fed may ease, with odds for a rate cut in September up to 88% and a 50 basis point rate cut at approximately 25% [4] - Real private domestic final sales are growing at approximately 1%, indicating cautious consumer behavior and a rising savings rate, potentially crossing 5% this year [21][22] - The 2-year Treasury yield less the 3-month Treasury yield is below zero, indicating restrictive monetary policy, which historically precedes recessions [26] - Truflation, which measures thousands of items in real time, suggests that inflation may stabilize and then decline towards or below 2% [33][24] Market Indicators - Economic policy uncertainty reached unprecedented levels during tariff turmoil, even higher than during the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic [36] - Revisions to non-farm payrolls were extreme, typically seen only in recessions, confirming the "rolling recession" [47] - Federal government employees are down by 84000 year-to-date, with an expected additional 150000 layoffs by the end of September, potentially impacting consumer confidence [48][49] - The consumer confidence index shows a decline in jobs being easy to get, suggesting potential economic weakness [51][52]

Company Vision & Strategy - ARK Invest was founded to move away from benchmark-sensitive strategies towards investing in companies driving technological revolution [1][2] - The company aims to fulfill an unmet need by focusing on companies transforming the world [2] Investment Focus - The firm emphasizes investment in companies that are shaping the future through technological advancements [2] - ARK Invest believes in the importance of investing in companies that will "make the new world work" [2]