Oil Market Dynamics & Geopolitics - Market perceives potential regime change in Venezuela as bearish due to potential increase in oil supply [1][2] - Despite geopolitical tensions (Venezuela, Israel/Iran, Russia/Ukraine), oil price remains relatively stable, suggesting abundant supply [3][4] - A source in the State Department indicated the Venezuela situation is aimed at lowering the oil price [14] - Cuba angle is confusing, especially regarding the administration's approach to Venezuela [13] Supply & Demand - Market is perceived to be in a glut of oil due to abundant supply [8] - Metals are experiencing high demand and supply issues, contrasting with the oil market [7][9] - US oil production remains strong despite a lower rig count, indicating high productivity [10] - Natural gas is cheap at $4, equivalent to $20 a barrel of oil [9] Company Performance & Investment - European major oil companies (BP, Shell, Total Energies) have generated significant returns for investors this year [4] - Trans Ocean rig, a highly leveraged name, experienced a notable increase in the fourth quarter, indicating contrarian trading [6] - Investors are beginning to consider the next phase of the oil market post-oversupply and are starting to invest in oil companies [6] Venezuela Refining Capacity - Venezuela possesses the world's largest single refinery with a capacity of over 1 million barrels per day, but it is currently not operational [11][12]

Market Outlook & Investment Strategy - Innovator Capital Management believes 2026 will be a unique year for investors, with consumers benefiting from tax cuts retroactively from 2025 and less withholding in 2026 [2][3] - The firm anticipates consumer spending will drive the economy and potentially push the S&P 500 to a target of 7,600 [3] - Managing risk remains a central focus for the firm, especially when considering the market outlook [2] - The firm is optimistic but not wildly so, projecting an S&P 500 target that aligns with historical market returns of approximately 8% plus dividend yield to reach about 11% [10] Consumer & Economic Factors - Consumer confidence has been low, but recent data shows signs of improvement, potentially driven by tax cuts [5] - Affordability is a major concern, particularly regarding high home prices, which have increased significantly since 2018 [7] - The impact of previous Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is expected to gradually influence the economy, potentially aiding with home prices [8] - Wage growth is slowing down, which could lead to a decrease in inflation, providing relief to consumers [9] Sector & Valuation Analysis - Discretionary and staples sectors have underperformed, but the firm believes they could experience a resurgence due to increased consumer spending [5][6] - Early bull market rallies are driven by valuation expansion, but the focus is shifting to earnings growth, particularly in 2026 [11][12] - The firm anticipates a slight contraction in valuations this year, emphasizing the importance of focusing on earnings growth [13]

Let's talk about this and more and get critical analysis with retired Colonel Jack Jacobs. Uh Colonel Jacobs, it's it's great to have you on, although I feel like when I have you on or when we talk to you, it's because there's something that's very tense in the world. Do you think it is possible that the United States will go to some form of a physical war with Venezuela.>> It's unlikely. It's difficult to envision how we would do that. I mean, we've tried that in other countries down through the ages and I ...

Welcome to CBC's Crypto World. I'm Jordan Smith. We're jumping right into our main story today.A conversation with Andy Bear of Coindesk Indices, talking about this disappointing Q4 that crypto has had and where things could head in 2026 as we look ahead towards more Wall Street adoption with tokenization. And all right, Andy, I'm going to start with I guess the big question for crypto. What happened at the end of the year here.Because historically, I mean, Q4 is pretty strong for crypto. And I, if you go b ...

Metals Market Analysis - Gold is expected to potentially reach $6,000, driven by central bank buying and asset class narratives [4] - Metal trades are anticipated to catch up to historical ratios, with platinum being favored due to EU's relaxation on combustion engines [3] - All the gold ever mined could fit on a football field 2 to 3 feet high, highlighting limited new supply due to the 6 to 9 years needed for new mines [5] - Copper is experiencing a deficit dynamic, supported by reduced processing fees to zero from Latin American producers in sales to China, indicating tight supply [6] Company Specific Analysis - Rio Tinto's copper production is expected to increase from 1-15% to approximately 40% of the top line in a couple of years, showing the fastest copper growth among integrated miners [8][9] - Rio Tinto is considered intrinsically cheap relative to its underlying assets, including iron ore and other bulks [9] - Freeport-McMoRan (Freeport) is also favored, with exposure to gold and a positive chart outlook, and the COPX copper miners ETF is highlighted as a good-looking chart [10] - UPS is showing relative improvement in its core business, with US margins increasing even as year-over-year US volumes decline, indicating better company management [12] Investment Strategies - Consider the copper miners ETF (COPX) for exposure to the copper market [10] - Investment decisions should not solely rely on dividend payouts, but capital discipline is a positive factor [11][13]

Joining us now is Loop Capitals Anthony Chakumba. Anthony and others on the street feel differently and are more concerned about the stock's prospects. So tell us what you expect.>> Sure, absolutely. So I think that as you said, I expect Ali to be able to comp the comp in 2026. I think that there's too much concern about the tough comparisons that they're going to face.And it really to me comes down to four different factors. First off, you know, they are going to continue to benefit from the Big Lots bankr ...

Whimos are up and running again in San Francisco after a Saturday blackout stopped the robo taxis in their tracks throughout the city. Dear Jabosa digging into what it means for the robo taxi roll out more broadly in today's tech check. Dearra, hey Kelly.So let me just show you. These are scenes from Saturday night in San Francisco. You might have seen them on social media or scenes just like this.So you essentially had Whimos stalled in intersections across lots of different streets backing up traffic acro ...

In the latest chapter of the war for Warner Brothers Discovery, Paramount Skydance has amended its offering to outbid Netflix for the legacy assets. Gerry Cardinale, founder of one of Paramount’s key investors and strategic partners RedBird Capital Partners, addresses the WBD board’s concerns about the updated offer. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is reportedly exploring a U.S. vaccine schedule closer to Denmark’s. Former FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb discusses the potential ...

Merger Odds & Strategic Importance - Paramount's adjusted offer increases the odds of winning the Warner Bros deal, providing more certainty to the Warner board [1] - A merger with Warner Bros is strategically more important for Paramount due to the critical need for scale in the streaming industry [3] - Netflix can economically benefit more from Warner Bros, leveraging its expertise in converting premium video into profit [2] Deal Valuation & Offers - Netflix's offer is $2775 per share for the studios, plus $1 per share for the Warner cable network portfolio, totaling just under $29 [4][5] - Paramount's offer appears greater at $30 cash, but includes a $1 per share breakup fee payable to Netflix if Warner chooses Paramount, resulting in a similar value of around $29 [6] - Warner Bros share price is up 35%, trading closer to $29 [3] Potential for Higher Bids & Market Sentiment - The market anticipates a higher bid for Warner Bros [7] - Netflix, with a $425+ billion equity market cap, has the financial capacity to increase its offer [9] - The arbitrage market is betting on a higher deal price [9] Netflix's Position & Potential Outcomes - Netflix is in a favorable position, with a bright future regardless of the merger outcome, but acquiring the assets would be beneficial [10] - The stock market has reacted negatively to the uncertainty the deal brings to Netflix, disrupting its image as a pure-play organic growth company [11]

Economic Outlook - The economy is perceived as "numb" due to shocks like federal debt, government shutdowns, and geopolitical risks, yet consumer spending remains resilient [2] - Despite potential risks, the market is expected to continue its course, suggesting a limited impact from external factors [3] - The consumer is anticipated to receive a tailwind in the coming year, indicating a positive outlook for consumer-driven economic activity [4] Investment Strategy - Focus on AI-related capital expenditure and large-cap tech companies, as earnings per share revisions in these areas have significantly outperformed others [7] - The AI trade, particularly in specific outperformers within the MAG-7 (Microsoft and Google), is favored, while Tesla is viewed with caution [8][9] - Microsoft is preferred due to its high-quality earnings and involvement in both AI and the MAG-7, while Google is favored for its return on equity and high profit margins [9][10] - A strategy of avoiding or selling Tesla is suggested due to concerns about volatility and the belief that the company is not effectively leveraging AI [9][10] Tesla Analysis - The market is awaiting Elon Musk's explicit communication of his vision and confidence in Tesla's future, which is currently lacking [14] - Despite Tesla's current performance and all-time highs, other AI tech companies or MAG-7 stocks are preferred for capital spending [13]