Tesla Shareholder Vote & Elon Musk's Pay Package - Betting markets indicated a high probability (90+%) of Elon Musk's pay package being approved [2] - Arch Invest believes Elon Musk deserves the pay package if he delivers a 41% compound annual rate of EBIT growth for the next 10 years [4] - Arch Invest disagrees with ISS and Glass Lewis's research, believing they don't understand Tesla's long-term vision and the need for pay-for-performance alignment [6] Tesla's Valuation & Future Growth Drivers - Arch Invest has a 2030 price target of $2600 for Tesla, with 90% of that valuation attributed to robo taxis [7] - Humanoid robots currently contribute very little to the $2600 price target, but the target could increase if their development accelerates [8][9] - The complexity of scaling humanoid robots is significantly higher than that of robo taxis [8] AI Competition: US vs China - Arch Invest believes the US is currently ahead of China in AI [11] - China has made significant progress in AI, potentially due to its adoption of open-source software [11] - China's focus on "new productive forces" and technology indicates a strong commitment to AI development [12][13]

But we also want to get to Qualcomm. That stock falling after hours despite beating estimates on the top and bottom lines with strong guidance. John spoke with the company's CEO last night in a first on CNBC interview.He joins us live this morning with that. Good morning. >> Yeah, morning Andrew.Uh there there was also a little tax related charge that Qualcomm took people might have paid attention to. I I did speak with Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Aman right after the earnings call about what was driving the ups ...

Impact of Government Shutdown on Air Travel Safety - Transportation Secretary announced a 10% reduction in US flights at 40 major airports, affecting nearly 4,000 flights [1] - Allied Pilots Association, representing 16,000 pilots, supports the flight reduction to maintain safety margins [1][4] - Rolling delays due to staffing shortages are causing fatigue among air traffic controllers [3] - The industry emphasizes the need for a clean CR (Continuing Resolution) to avoid further disruptions [5] - Airspace safety and security are paramount, requiring adaptation to maintain standards [7][8] Operational Challenges - Airlines are experiencing pilot time-outs due to delays, impacting schedules and requiring the use of reserve pilots planned for the Thanksgiving season [9][11] - The current situation is described as a "mess" that needs to be resolved to prevent further operational disruptions [10] - The shutdown is putting strain on pilots, potentially affecting their readiness and focus [11][13] Call for Action - The industry advocates for an immediate end to the shutdown, emphasizing that safety and security should not be part of a political debate [4][5] - The situation is considered urgent, requiring immediate action to ensure clear skies and prevent accidents [5] - The industry stresses that distractions and external issues should not compromise the focus and performance of flight crews and air traffic controllers [14]

Tesla holding its annual meeting today. Shareholders had until midnight to vote on Elon Musk compensation package, which could be worth up to a trillion dollars over the next decade if he hits all the numbers. Tim Higgins is with us, the Wall Street Journal's business columnist and a CNBC contributor.And the question of the morning, I think it's going their way. Uh I imagine I could be wrong about that. I don't know what you think.Uh but my bigger question is if it for some reason it doesn't, what do you th ...

Open AI. Uh, the CFO says the company is not working on an IPO in the near term. The Wall Street Journal reporting Open AI could go public as soon as 2027, but CFO Sarah Frier said the company's recent transition to a more traditional corporate structure doesn't mean it will immediately move uh towards an IPO.Open AI chair Brett Taylor is going to join us in the 8:00 hour. Revisit this >> coming up. Uh the FAA cutting flight capacity at major airports amid shutdown related staffing shortages.We got some rea ...

What do you make of some of the action we're seeing in the pre-market. We started a bit lower after we finished higher yesterday. Now we kind of swung back into positive territory.What do you think's going on in the minds of investors. A couple of things going on. We have earnings, uh, the Supreme Court case over tariffs, uh, better than expected jobs report.What do you think's percolating. >> I think investors are more focused right now on big tech earnings, the AI infrastructure spend, and exactly where w ...

How do you think it's going so far. We heard a lot of reports that the justices seem skeptical. What do you what was your take of their reception of some of the facts in this case.>> Well, they they seemed uh very taken with the idea that the the law does not provide for tariffs. That's an argument we've been making since April. They asked a lot of questions about um how it could possibly be that Congress decided to give a blank check to the president to the tune of a $3 trillion tax increase that he could ...

Market Sentiment & Tariffs - The market initially reacted positively to a stronger-than-expected ADP report and skepticism surrounding the legality of tariffs, suggesting a hope for their repeal [1] - Investors exhibit a "buy the dip" mentality, potentially overemphasizing positive news regarding tariffs [3][4] - The market generally dislikes uncertainty, and the potential for tariff refunds outweighs the perceived risks [2][3] Bond Market & Treasury - The 10-year Treasury yield moved up by approximately 5-6 basis points due to the jobs report and the possibility of tariff repeal leading to increased bond issuances [5] - Potential tariff refunds for corporations, if mandated by the Supreme Court, would necessitate increased Treasury issuances [6] Earnings Season & Outlook - Earnings trajectory is strong, with convergence between AI-focused companies and other market sectors [10] - Resilient consumers and better-than-expected margins contribute to strong earnings, mitigating worst-case scenario concerns [11] - Dollar strengthening over the past three months has contributed to outsized earnings beats [9] Market Dynamics & Bubble Concerns - Smaller, less prominent companies are experiencing rallies following earnings beats, while previously strong performers face pullbacks [12] - Despite concerns from some analysts, the market may be moving past bubble fears, particularly in the AI space, due to fundamental differences compared to past bubbles [14][15] - There's a degree of froth and expectations have caught up with reality in the AI space, sideways movement is healthy [15]

So, we got some new data on how the wealthy are managing and maybe even spending some of their money. The one guy who knows more about money and how they spend it is here at the table. He's going to spend it for us, Robert Frank.He's got the details. >> Good to see you, Andrew. Welcome to back.Uh, only a third of millionaires in fact surveyed use a wealth adviser. And among those who do, many are planning a change. A survey by long angle, that's the network of high netw worth founders and executives, found ...

AI Investment and Growth - AI is considered a transformational technology, with the focus shifting to how over-extrapolated it already is and staying ahead of the next waves of investment [2] - The Magnificent 7 earnings showed over 20% earnings growth, with cloud revenue growing 25% year-over-year [3] - Dispersion within the early winners of the AI story is expected to continue [4] Infrastructure and Power Constraints - The physical infrastructure needed for AI, particularly electricity power, is a key concern [4] - China's less constrained approach to energy and a more modern grid system give it a potential advantage in AI adoption [4] - Investment interest is growing in solutions for upgrading the grid, especially in private markets and infrastructure funds, including contracted power companies [4][12] Energy and Policy Considerations - China is taking an "all of the above" approach to energy, including coal, nuclear, renewables (especially solar and batteries), and fossil fuels [7][8] - Natural gas has an important role to play in the US before full renewable solutions are reliable and stable [9] - Upgrading the US power grid, which has not been significantly upgraded in decades, is crucial [4][9] Investment Strategy - The focus should be on structural stories like AI in the US and certain Asia markets, rather than betting on a cyclical economic recovery [11] - Active focus is needed in tech and growth funds due to more dispersion in large companies [11] - Opportunities exist in private markets, specifically infrastructure funds with regulated and contracted power companies [12]