Just first of all, this signal that we're getting pulling back from one particular area, bricks and mortar in China, is it a big deal for Apple. China is a huge deal for Apple. Let's put it in perspective.This one particular store. There's a question mark about this mall. You've had other retailers, U.S. based retailers like Coach Hugo Boss have gotten out of there.So I'm not sure how much to read into this one particular mall. But let's dial the lens back and talk about the big picture in China. China is a ...

You've kind of invested in fee based business lines. Many of them, they've been consistent. But now what the market seems to be seeing is that flowing through to the bottom line as well.Would you just explain how that went in the quarter. Sure. We've made a conscious effort to diversify our business into these capital light, less credit risk fee revenue streams, one of which is our loan platform business, where people pay us to use our originations platform, which includes our underwriting capabilities, our ...

When you are covering Microsoft, one assumes you have to model in this relationship with open API, both the financial exposure but the technology exposure as well. Yeah. What did you hear then and what do you make of it.Yeah. So first of all, congratulations on breaking that news story. So that's incremental development.And we actually published our note later yesterday and we didn't cover the detail reporting that you guys did. So that certainly is a wrinkle, but it does not change the overall thesis. Our ...

Microsoft and OpenAI Relationship - Microsoft invested in OpenAI with the condition of limited access to their technology, especially if OpenAI reached AGI [1] - Microsoft is concerned about losing access to OpenAI's technology if OpenAI achieves AGI [2] - Negotiations are ongoing to ensure Microsoft's continued access to OpenAI's technology, even after AGI is achieved [2][3] OpenAI's Corporate Restructuring - OpenAI aims to alter its corporate charter for more flexibility and increased fundraising capabilities [4] - SoftBank's potential investment is contingent on OpenAI completing its restructuring by the end of the year [4][5] - The restructuring deadline creates pressure on both sides to reach an agreement [5] Financial Implications - OpenAI seeks a larger share of the value it adds, recognizing its significant contribution [5][6] - Microsoft secured a favorable deal in 2019 when it initially invested in OpenAI [6]

Leadership & Structure - Mark Zuckerberg is highly involved in Meta's AI-related projects [2][4] - Meta has established a superintelligence lab to develop a new AI model with human-level capabilities [3] - I Changa Zhao is the new chief scientist of the superintelligence lab [3] - Yann LeCun remains the chief scientist of Meta's AI Research Division (Thayer Group) [3][4] Talent Acquisition - Meta is building a superintelligence group, initially targeting around 50 people [5] - The superintelligence group currently has approximately 30 members [5] - Meta is likely still actively hiring for the superintelligence group, prioritizing talent acquisition over a fixed headcount [4][6][7] Strategic Focus - Meta's focus is on developing a superintelligent AI model [3] - The company emphasizes attracting and retaining top AI talent [7]

Industry Events & Competition - China hosted the World Conference in Shanghai, showcasing robotics [1] - The US is perceived as lacking a cost-effective competitor in the robotics field [2] Technological Advancements & Market Potential - The robotics industry is forecasted to reach trillions of dollars by 2050 or 2030 [3] - China possesses leading AI researchers and a robust domestic supply chain for robotics [3] Skepticism & Real-World Application - There are questions regarding the translatability of showcased robotics technology to real-world applications [3]

Market Conditions & IPOs - VC 支持的 IPO 正在出现，部分原因是过去一年满足了三个条件 [1] - 利率趋于稳定，美联储暗示将停止加息并可能降息 [2] - 公开市场相对稳定，VIX 指数接近 12 个月低点 [2] - Circle、Core、eToro 和 Armada Health 等公司在公开市场表现良好 [3] Investment Strategy & Metrics - 投资目标是寻找下一代伟大的上市公司，并在它们还是私有公司时进行投资 [8] - 公司推迟 IPO 上市，投资公司可以帮助这些公司从伟大的私有公司转变为伟大的上市公司 [9] - 关注具有持久性和防御能力的公司，即在未来 5-10 年内可持续发展且不易被复制的公司 [12] - 企业软件如何从 AI 中受益并真正利用 AI 是一个关键的观察点 [13] AI Impact - AI 正在以前所未有的速度推动收入增长 [10] - Anthropic 这样的公司在模型领域的 ARR 据传在六个月内从 10 亿美元增长到 40 亿美元 [11] - 受益于 AI 的高知名度公司，如 Figma，其定价预期将继续提高 [7]

Market Overview & Expectations - S&P 500 rally is heavily influenced by the earnings of major tech companies, particularly the "Magnificent Seven" [1] - Investors are showing caution due to high valuations and expectations for these companies [4][5] - Earnings expectations for this group have slightly decreased to 16% quarter-over-quarter growth, down from 19% [6] Key Companies & Performance - Microsoft and Meta are significant drivers of the S&P 500 rally, especially since April [2][10] - Apple is down approximately 15% year-to-date, facing scrutiny regarding AI plans and China exposure [3] - Amazon's stock performance is relatively flat year-to-date [2] Earnings Impact & Strategy - Companies must "beat and raise" earnings to sustain the rally in their stocks [6] - Delivering strong results is crucial to justify the stretched valuations of these companies [7] - Positive earnings reports are being rewarded with share price increases, while negative reports are punished [11] Index Level Implications - Poor performance from key companies like Microsoft could lead to turmoil at the index level [10] - Apple's potential recovery could significantly boost the S&P 500 [8]

AI Race & Adoption - The US AI action plan aims to compete with China, focusing on both innovation and adoption of AI [1] - Winning the AI race depends on which countries can best utilize AI for economic benefit [2] - The US has an advantage in AI adoption, but the race is still open [3] - AI adoption requires focus on talent, infrastructure, data, and governance frameworks [5][6] US AI Exportation - The US aims to be a net exporter of AI technology, including hardware and software [7] - AI adoption relies on cutting-edge cloud services and software, much of which originates in the US [9] Copyright & Training Data - Access to training data is crucial for the US to stay ahead in the AI race [11][12] - The US government acknowledges the importance of training data for AI development [11] EU Competitiveness - The EU has significant potential to benefit from AI if it focuses on adoption [13] - Addressing digital sovereignty barriers and streamlining regulations are important for the EU to effectively adopt and use AI [13][14]

Onshoring and Economic Impact - Onshoring to America, especially high value-added tech manufacturing like chips, has a large fiscal and economic impact without overly stressing the labor force [2] - A major investment deal between a leading American company and a foreign technology company aims to onshore industry in the US [1] - The success of major investments by companies struggling in their respective fields remains to be seen in terms of long-term impact [3][4] Semiconductor Industry and Competition - TSMC has an overall technical lead in the semiconductor space, having built an extraordinary business that has taken out competitors like Intel and Samsung [4][5] - Increased competition is coming for both TSMC and Nvidia [5] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing tremendous growth [5] Market and Investment Trends - The US prime book is heavily weighted and overexposed to the semiconductor space and semiconductor equipment [6] - Hedge funds have dialed back exposure to the semiconductor space ahead of earnings [6] - Extraordinary retail participation, a dramatic increase in margin utilization, and a dramatic decline in short interest have been observed [7] - Market conditions are extraordinarily difficult for hedge funds, requiring near-perfect earnings to live up to the hype [9] - Hedge funds have been underexposed to software services [9] - Hedge funds are expected to rotate towards sectors that are performing well, such as cyclicals versus defensives [10]