Market Analysis and Predictions - The analysis suggests the US dollar index (DXY) is nearing a low point, potentially within the next few months [17][18][24] - The dollar's recent weakness is attributed to perceived weakness against trading partners and upcoming tariff deadlines [19][20] - The analysis anticipates a bounce in the dollar index, potentially after rate cuts in September, citing a 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a higher chance of a 50 basis point rate cut [20][21] - The dollar index has been in a massive parallel channel since 2008, and is currently at the bottom of this channel [10][11] - The analysis suggests that the majority of the losses for the dollar in 2025 have already occurred, comparing it to the 2017 cycle [25][26] Technical Indicators and Historical Patterns - The analysis points to a long-term trend line that has been respected for a long time, suggesting it will likely find a higher low compared to the last cycle [23][24] - The analysis notes similarities between the current cycle and the 2016-2017 cycle, including a breakdown in the post-election year [15][16] - The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the dollar is low, historically leading to a bounce [33][34] - The daily RSI for the dollar has recently moved into oversold territory, often resulting in a bounce [34] Correlation and Risk Assets - The analysis emphasizes that the dollar's performance is relative to other fiat currencies, not necessarily to assets like Bitcoin or gold [8] - The analysis highlights that the correlation between the dollar and risk assets like Bitcoin is not always consistent, especially outside of midterm years [30][31][32]

Market Analysis & Trends - The 50-week simple moving average (SMA) is a key indicator for Bitcoin, with its ability to hold above this average suggesting the market cycle's integrity remains intact [1] - Historically, a weekly close below the 50-week SMA has signaled the end of a Bitcoin cycle and the halfway point of a bear market [1] - Diminishing returns across Bitcoin cycles may lead to more frequent tests of the 50-week SMA [2] - Bitcoin dominance tends to increase regardless of market conditions, suggesting a strategy of holding Bitcoin to mitigate downside risk [2] - The analysis suggests a potential test of the 50-week SMA, currently around $85,000-$86,000, in the near future, possibly as early as Q3 [2] Historical Patterns & Observations - In previous cycles (2013/2014 and 2017/2018), touching the 50-week SMA often marked the cycle's end [1] - The 2021 cycle differed, as Bitcoin reached new all-time highs even after a weekly close below the 50-week SMA, possibly due to it not being a midterm election year [1] - Historically, bear markets have predominantly occurred in midterm election years (2014, 2018, 2022) [5] Risk Management & Future Outlook - Maintaining positions in Bitcoin provides exposure to potential upside while minimizing downside risk [2][8] - The analysis suggests that while predicting exact market tops is difficult, monitoring the 50-week SMA is crucial [2][10] - A failure to hold the 50-week SMA as support could indicate the start of a typical bear market [5]

Market Trend & Prediction - The analysis suggests that all Bitcoin pairs are likely to reach range lows, potentially driven by liquidity conditions and retail consumer behavior [4][6][10] - The analyst anticipates a potential 20% drop in Bitcoin valuations for altcoins [13][17] - The report notes a possible short-term bounce in the summer, but the eventual outcome is expected to be the range lows [22][23] - The analysis draws parallels to historical data, suggesting a potential low in late October or early November [9][10] Macroeconomic Factors - The analyst suggests that a low unemployment rate of 41% might delay interest rate cuts, potentially impacting higher-risk assets [7][21] - The report indicates a shift in the probability of rate cuts, with a reduced chance of a cut in July (from 25% to 5%) and an increased chance of no cut in September (from 5% to 333%) [7] Altcoin Performance - The analysis highlights that while altcoins may have performed better in USD valuations, they have underperformed against Bitcoin [14][15] - The report questions the value of altcoin USD gains if they continue to bleed against Bitcoin [16] Technical Analysis - The analyst points out that every rally has met with a lower high, indicating a potential breakdown [17] - The analysis references specific Bitcoin pair valuations, noting a move from 031% to a potential 025% [18] - The report includes USDC in the analysis, showing a valuation of 029% and suggesting further downside [19]

Market Valuation - The total cryptocurrency asset class is approximately at 3266 trillion [1] - The cryptocurrency asset class is undervalued by approximately 1823% [1] Investment Strategy - As long as the cryptocurrency asset class remains below the red line, Bitcoin is expected to outperform most of the rest of the market [1]

Market Valuation and Trends - The fair value logarithmic regression trend line for the cryptocurrency asset class is approximately $3.99 trillion [3] - The total cryptocurrency asset class is currently valued at around $3.266 trillion, representing an undervaluation of approximately 18.23% [3] - Historically, the cryptocurrency asset class has often remained below the fair value logarithmic regression trend line [4] - Bitcoin has been outperforming most of the altcoin market, leading to altcoins bleeding to Bitcoin [4] - Bitcoin rallies are supported by ETF flows, companies adding Bitcoin to their reserves, DCAing (Dollar-Cost Averaging), and conversion from altcoins [8] - The asset class has found support multiple times at a level representing approximately 30% undervaluation [17][18] Factors Influencing the Market - Monetary policy, particularly interest rates, is considered a significant factor influencing altcoin rallies; higher interest rates may hinder durable altcoin rallies [14][15] - Quantitative tightening also plays a role in preventing durable altcoin rallies and overvaluations [15] Future Outlook - The general expectation is that the cryptocurrency asset class will eventually reach approximately $10 trillion, plus or minus a few trillion [19]

Hey everyone and thanks for tuning back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to be providing an update to the bull market support band. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in. So, Bitcoin actually had a nice move back up last week to the tune of about 7%.not quite at all-time highs just yet, but ...

Market Sentiment & Social Interest - The crypto industry observes that despite Bitcoin's price reaching $107,000 and hitting new all-time highs recently, social interest remains surprisingly low compared to the euphoria of 2021 [1] - The social risk indicator, comprising YouTube subscribers/views, Twitter followers/exchanges, and layer ones on X, is near zero, indicating minimal interest in the crypto space [1] - Historically, social interest above 8.9% has indicated retail arrival, but current levels suggest a lack of new entrants despite rising prices [1] - YouTube channels that averaged 4 million views a day in 2021 are now only averaging around 700,000 views a day, reflecting decreased engagement [16] Monetary Policy & Economic Factors - The analysis draws parallels between the current market and the quantitative tightening phase of the previous cycle, noting that social interest remained low until rate cuts and quantitative easing occurred [1] - The industry suggests that a combination of monetary policy, inflation impacting individuals, and negative connotations associated with crypto scams contribute to the low social interest [8][10] - The report mentions that monetary policy isn't really that supportive, macro risks with inflation and the unemployment rate that we haven't really dealt with much in prior cycles with the exception of the pandemic [37] Bitcoin vs Altcoins - The report indicates that social interest is largely driven by movements in the altcoin market, not Bitcoin [4] - The analysis suggests that many crypto participants are primarily focusing on Bitcoin, with altcoins struggling to maintain momentum against Bitcoin's dominance [12][38] - The industry notes that altcoins did not outperform Bitcoin during the quantitative tightening phase of 2019, and a durable alt season requires a return of retail interest [33][21] Future Outlook & Potential Catalysts - The report identifies potential catalysts for increased social interest, including accelerating Bitcoin prices, the industry focusing on more important things than scams, and supportive monetary policy [35][36] - The industry believes that until monetary policy changes and all Bitcoin pairs go to the range lows, altcoins will likely continue to struggle against Bitcoin [39] - The analysis emphasizes that all Bitcoin pairs going to the range lows is a necessary but not sufficient condition to see the durable outperformance of altcoins on their Bitcoin pairs [20]

Let's talk about the main reasons why #ALT season has not happened this market cycle so far, and what things might need to happen in order for #ALT season to happen again. Into The Cryptoverse Premium SALE: https://intothecryptoverse.com Into The Cryptoverse Newsletter: https://newsletter.intothecryptoverse.com/ LIFETIME OPTION: https://intothecryptoverse.com/product/subscription-to-the-premium-list-lifetime/ Alternative Option: https://www.patreon.com/intothecryptoverse Merch: https://store.intothecryptove ...

But here's the thing. Every prior cycle when Bitcoin closes two weekly candles below the 50week moving average, the cycle's over, right. It's over at that point.Okay. So, think about that, right. When that happens, I'm not saying use that as an indicator to figure out when to sell because by that point, you know, the bare market's already halfway over.Uh but you can see that when you get two weekly closes below that level, cycle's over. So this is the thing to watch for going into the third quarter this yea ...

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