Market Dominance - The market speculates on Bitcoin and Ethereum dominance potentially rising together, similar to the trend observed in 2020 [1] - The market considers the possibility of capital consolidating into Bitcoin and Ethereum, the established "blue chips" [2] - The market discusses the narrative of altcoins potentially losing value relative to Bitcoin and Ethereum [2] Monetary Policy Impact - The market observes the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and its potential impact on cryptocurrency market dynamics [1] Market Outlook - The market acknowledges that these potential scenarios and narratives may not materialize immediately [3] - The market has established a basis for how these markets could evolve and the narratives that could be associated with them [3]

Federal Reserve (FOMC) and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates steady at 45% [2] - Quantitative tightening (QT) continues, with the Fed reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities, although the pace has slowed [2][3] - The market is pricing in a higher probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in September [11][48] - Tariffs could cause a one-time price increase, influencing the Fed's decisions regarding rate cuts [26][27][30] Crypto Market Analysis - Lower interest rates and no quantitative tightening typically lead to outperformance of altcoins or higher-risk assets [7] - Bitcoin has outperformed altcoins during quantitative tightening and higher interest rates [7][8][9] - Altcoins have been bleeding against Bitcoin, with altcoins down against ETH (Ethereum) by approximately 45% since ETH went home back in April [8][19] - The industry anticipates all Bitcoin pairs may decline around September or October, potentially due to unmet expectations of rate cuts [15][17] Market Outlook and Strategy - The industry expects the 10-year yield is likely heading back up to 5%, and the dollar is expected to build a base over the next several months, potentially rising in 2026 [20] - Ethereum is expected to break through $4,000 within the next few months [22] - Bitcoin and Ethereum dominance could increase together, with liquidity flowing into these "blue-chip" cryptocurrencies [23][24] - Assets that are performing well are more likely to continue performing well [44]

Market Analysis - The cryptocurrency market is currently more institutionally driven compared to the retail-driven cycles of 2017 and 2021 [4][25] - Social risk, an indicator of retail interest, remains relatively low at 0.103, suggesting limited retail participation [5] - YouTube views for top crypto channels are around 120 万 (1.2 million) on a 7-day moving average, lower than previous market tops [11] - The advanced decline index for the top 100 cryptocurrencies has been declining, indicating that larger cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum are driving market cap increases [17][18][19] Bitcoin and Altcoins - Bitcoin has been dominating gains in this cycle due to low retail interest, causing altcoins to lag [8] - While Ethereum's valuation against Bitcoin has improved, it hasn't significantly increased retail interest [3][8] - In the current market, only a few coins are performing well, with rotation occurring between different sectors of the asset class [16][17] Future Outlook - The cryptocurrency market will monitor social risk to determine if it establishes higher lows, potentially signaling increased retail participation [23][24] - Whether retail investors will return remains uncertain, with the end of the year being a potential timeframe for a clearer indication [26]

And what if it simply tops out. What if it just simply tops out at the same level it topped out the last couple of cycles of around 85%. Right now it's around 73%.I know that might sound crazy, but listen guys, a lot of people this cycle would have just been better off assuming that everything was going to stay the same, right. That that you know the ETH would bleed against Bitcoin until Ethereum went home. They would have been better off believing that Ethereum was actually going to go home, that I wasn't ...

Altcoin Market Analysis - Many influencers are promoting altcoins, but their performance against Ethereum should be scrutinized [1] - Since April, approximately 99.99% of shilled altcoins have likely decreased in value against Ethereum [1] Investment Advice - Investors should evaluate altcoins' performance against Ethereum before investing [1]

And now one bitcoin is worth 31 E. So you could have stuck with you could have converted your Ethereum to Bitcoin in 2022 when I did and just by holding Bitcoin even through the bare market and then holding just continuing to hold on to it holding it you could have gotten five times the amount of Ethereum by just converting your ETH to Bitcoin at the end of 2021 and then converting back when ETH went home. Remember when Eth went home. If you converted back when ETH went home, that was the time. ...

Portfolio Construction Strategy - The cryptocurrency industry utilizes Modern Portfolio Theory, a classical economics theory, to construct portfolios based on historical data and volatility, assuming similar future trends [1] - The industry aims to construct portfolios based on risk-adjusted returns, distinguishing long-term investing from short-term speculation [1] - The Sharpe Ratio, calculated using historical returns, risk-free rate (approximated by the 2-year yield), and standard deviation of excess return, helps determine optimal portfolio weights [1][2] - The Sortino Ratio, a variation of the Sharpe Ratio, does not penalize positive volatility, offering an alternative perspective on risk-adjusted returns [3] - The industry notes that a portfolio consisting of Bitcoin and Ethereum can maximize risk-adjusted returns, with specific allocations determined by the Sharpe or Sortino ratio [3] Market Analysis and Asset Allocation - Historical data suggests an 81% Bitcoin and 19% Ethereum allocation maximizes the Sharpe Ratio, while an 83% Bitcoin and 17% Ethereum allocation maximizes the Sortino Ratio [3] - Adding XRP into the portfolio mix, based on historical performance, shifts the optimal allocation to approximately 76% Bitcoin, 17% Ethereum, and 7% XRP using the Sharpe Ratio, or 82% Bitcoin, 15% Ethereum, and 3% XRP using the Sortino Ratio [4] - The industry acknowledges the potential for altcoins to outperform Bitcoin, but emphasizes the importance of considering historical data and potential downsides, especially during bear markets [4][22] - The industry suggests that maintaining a portion of the portfolio in cash (e g, one-third) allows for strategic buying opportunities during market downturns [11][20] Risk Management and Investment Perspective - The industry emphasizes the importance of Bitcoin dominance in crypto portfolios, advocating for a higher allocation to Bitcoin compared to other individual crypto assets [22][23] - The industry cautions against solely relying on influencer opinions and encourages investors to focus on data-driven analysis and risk management strategies [13][15]

Altcoin Performance - Altcoins experienced a collapse, reaching new lows [1] - This occurred even with a minimal pullback in the ETH/Bitcoin pair [1] - ETH/Bitcoin potentially forming a higher low while Bitcoin pairs form lower lows was initially considered unlikely but has materialized [2] ETH/Bitcoin Analysis - A small pullback in ETH/Bitcoin led to altcoins reaching new lows [1]

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Ethereum. We're more so going to be discussing the ETH Bitcoin valuation.If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse. com. Let's go ahead and jump in.Now, if you're new to the cryptoverse, you may be curious as to why we would do a whole video just on the Bitcoin valuation of Et ...

Market Analysis & Trends - Bitcoin's having occurs approximately every four years, influencing market cycles [1][2] - Having cycles 1 and 3 saw no price drops below the having day price, while cycles 2 and 4 experienced drawdowns of about 15-20% [3][4] - Bitcoin is currently around day 439 of the cycle, suggesting the bare market may begin in approximately 100 days, based on the last two cycles [6] ROI & Diminishing Returns - Diminishing returns have been observed in each Bitcoin cycle [8][11] - In previous cycles, ROI decreased: Cycle 1 (92x), Cycle 2 (30x), Cycle 3 (8x); current cycle is below 2x [14] - At a similar point in previous cycles, Bitcoin's price increase from the having was approximately 4x in the second to last cycle and 550% in the cycle before that [11] Investment Considerations - Strategic reserves and ETFs exist, but a larger market cap requires exponentially more volume to move the price [11] - Tempering expectations is advised, as diminishing returns may continue despite new market factors [12]