憨巴龙王
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憨巴龙王· 2025-07-13 00:01
Market Manipulation Strategies - Proposed methods to exploit arbitrageurs by creating artificial price discrepancies between spot and futures markets [1] - Suggests maintaining a high premium by opening large long positions in the 0.5-0.55 range [1] - Plans to delay delivery of pre-sales (600 million USD) to trap arbitrageurs [1] - Advocates creating a 20 million USD liquidity pool to attract investment and increase volatility [1] - Aims to create a situation with low spot market circulation and high futures market open interest [1] - Intends to trigger a short squeeze by manipulating the futures market, potentially multiplying long positions and generating liquidity [1] Financial Exploitation - Aims to capture the entire 600 million USD from pre-sales by exploiting market dynamics [1] - Suggests strategies for even larger-scale exploitation requiring capital investment [1]
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憨巴龙王· 2025-07-12 23:18
Market Risk - Traditional markets often see futures squeezes where longs typically win due to the inherent disadvantages faced by shorts, as margin requirements increase exponentially with rising prices [1] - In the crypto space, extreme price discrepancies can occur, leading to potential losses for arbitrageurs, similar to the TRB incident where significant price differences between exchanges resulted in substantial financial setbacks [1] - Low liquidity and large holdings in the crypto market can trigger cascading liquidations, potentially causing flash crashes and significant losses for traders who are unable to react quickly [1][2] Risk Management - While hedging is possible, it's crucial to avoid overly passive positions, even with seemingly safe strategies like 1x hedging [1] - Cascading liquidations can lead to substantial financial losses, potentially wiping out entire positions overnight [2]
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憨巴龙王· 2025-07-12 14:40
Market Analysis - Hype and Binance together hold $400 million (0.4 billion USD) in positions [1] - The market lacks sufficient assets, potentially leading to either a long squeeze or a short squeeze [1] - The current market dynamic is purely player versus player (PVP) [1]
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憨巴龙王· 2025-07-12 10:30
Market Sentiment - Foreign investors exhibit strong FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out), indicating high demand [1] - The widening price difference between Hype and Binance pre-market suggests significant foreign investor enthusiasm [1] Trading Analysis - Detailed examination of holding addresses on Hype was conducted [1]
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憨巴龙王· 2025-07-11 02:36
正常来说应该盘前低流动性拉盘,才有人会去打预售。Wlfi第一轮1.5b的市值打1.5亿刀,都打了几个月,即便trump发币后,也有2天的时候可以打。最后还是孙哥直接塞了1500万刀才瞬间结束的。这pump 4b的市值打6亿刀....我真不知道不拉盘怎么塞满,所有有硬顶的打新,都是一群人观望,等进度到40%-50%才开始加速打钱。但是这个有盘前合约,理论可以套保打预售。不过,我应该不会这么玩,或者玩太大仓位,以前被那种锁仓的坑怕了。最后,如果是前几天的大盘,如果盘前合约不拉,那就可以直接做裸空了。低流动性都不拉盘合约pvp,难道开现货一堆人打进去了,拉盘送钱吗?结论:我认为应该要拉盘前,才会有人打预售。如果盘前都不拉,那么开盘更没人接盘,应该做空。谨慎套保打预售,防止搞锁仓等幺蛾子。 ...