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憨巴龙王· 2025-07-14 12:14
那为为什么要在我评论下面发ca呢? https://t.co/ScwpPTcTY4Yuyue (@yuyue_chris):@LNudt 几百 k 的东西,真不值得我为他费时费力,底部筹码还都不值得是谁的 ...
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憨巴龙王· 2025-07-14 03:39
Market Analysis - The original OI/MC data analysis suggested that if Open Interest (OI) exceeded Market Cap (MC), it indicated potential market manipulation, as even if all spot holders were arbitrageurs, some would still be naked short [1] - The initial data was flawed, as OI should be divided by 2, invalidating the OI/MC logic in most cases [1] Trading Strategy - Previously, with a 1000 market cap coin, holding 900 in spot and opening a 200 contract long position allowed for guaranteed profit through market manipulation [1] - This strategy worked because spot holders would sell regardless of the price increase, and short holders would incur greater losses, leading to liquidation profits [1] - Arbitrageurs holding both spot and short positions exist, making it difficult to determine if short positions are naked and whether they will surrender [1]
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憨巴龙王· 2025-07-14 03:01
Market Observation - The industry has discovered that open interest (OI) is calculated bi-directionally [1] - Individual's position accounts for 10%-15% of the open interest (OI) in some contracts [1] - If OI is calculated bi-directionally, the individual's position would account for 20%-30% [1] - The industry's understanding of OI/MC data may be flawed due to the bi-directional calculation [1] Data Correction - Previously used OI/MC data may need to be divided by 2 to reflect the actual situation [1]
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憨巴龙王· 2025-07-13 15:07
我说头像。符合憨巴龙的噜噜头像。 ...
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憨巴龙王· 2025-07-13 15:05
最近喜欢噜噜,想要一个跟名字有关的可爱的噜噜。评论区直接发图,私信收不到,采纳了空投666u ...
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憨巴龙王· 2025-07-13 13:39
最后,如果我的文章有时候不想说的很明白,因为能看懂的不会骂我,看不懂我说错了,你就会骂我。如果你实在看不懂,又想知道答案,建议多加点群,我昨天下午发文章后,好几个套利群都觉得我会打,所以很多人都加大力度了。本来也不想说,主要是一开始说错了,纠正下自己错误,免得有人想打因为我没打。 ...
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憨巴龙王· 2025-07-13 13:33
Market Analysis - Two new addresses appeared in the top 10 holders of PUMP on HYPE yesterday afternoon, while the other eight were profitable traders with millions of dollars in gains [1] - HYPE held $250 million in positions yesterday afternoon, while Binance held $60 million, suggesting potential arbitrage activity [2] - After accounting for potential fake positions on HYPE and arbitrageurs on Binance, there is an estimated $200 million in real positions likely to participate in the new offering [2] - A large number of arbitrageurs are expected to participate in the new offering, reducing the number of naked shorts [2] - The potential total commitment for the new offering is estimated at $300-400 million, suggesting it will be oversubscribed [2] - Oversubscription is expected to drive up the price due to FOMO (fear of missing out) in the secondary market [2] - The offering should have been completed in 2-3 minutes instead of 14 minutes if there were no exchange issues [2]
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憨巴龙王· 2025-07-13 13:17
当然,我也能理解很多愤怒的原因,就是bybit拖着不给结果,如果立马给结果,会在链上打/平套保。 ...
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憨巴龙王· 2025-07-13 13:13
我在bybit 02s打进去的,分发了。淡定点吧,我准备了5m,gate kraken ,bybit bitget都准备了,唯独链上没搞。只有bybit进去了2m。其实后来仔细想想,真打5m进去,我也不敢全部套保,按照现在价格要套8m,钱是有很多,没那胆子。然后我在打新的时候,直接裸多一部分,具体原因参考带哥说的策略。所以就是裸打+裸多的一部分,其实我也很不满意bybit没有立马给结果,如果当时告诉我没打进去,我会直接把2m放在合约上。也不用套保了,直接清仓就好了。很多人说用程序不公平,不是...应该只是你没用上,你能用程序的时候,你觉得比谁都公平。淡定点吧。其实正常来说,应该把资金分成5份,所有地方都准备,确保能打到。反正你也不可能拿自己一半的本金去梭哈打预售吧?千万别又说我洗地了,前几天说几句okx也说我洗地。实话实说,我没收过交易所一分钱,甚至任何一份礼物。前几天何一好像给我回复了,我都懒得回,本来想跟她玩点抽象,说点龙哥(炫神)的梗, 怕被穿小鞋就算了。 ...
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憨巴龙王· 2025-07-13 05:57
Market Dynamics & Trading Behavior - OKX's pre-market trading of altcoins like Ape experiences significant leverage reduction, dropping from $2-3 million to less than $10 thousand [1] - Binance offers 5x leverage with a limit of $250 thousand for altcoins like Ape, contrasting with OKX's previous higher leverage [1] - The report suggests that high leverage (e.g., 20x) is often designed for liquidating user positions [1] OKX Pre-Market Promotion - OKX promotes its pre-market trading platform, encouraging users to trade before the broader market activity increases [1]