Workflow
憨巴龙王
icon
Search documents
X @憨巴龙王
憨巴龙王· 2025-07-14 12:14
那为为什么要在我评论下面发ca呢? https://t.co/ScwpPTcTY4Yuyue (@yuyue_chris):@LNudt 几百 k 的东西,真不值得我为他费时费力,底部筹码还都不值得是谁的 ...
X @憨巴龙王
憨巴龙王· 2025-07-14 03:39
再解释下以前为什么奉行OI/MC数据。以下文章oi都按照单向计算。假设某个币有1000市值,你手上有900现货,并且开了200合约多单,这时候你去拉盘,是一定稳赚的。因为不管拉到多高,现货持有人不管多高砸给你,你的多单对手盘,持有空单的人会亏的更多。(假设合约和现货价格一样),他们爆仓的时候,就是你结算盈利的时候。那这是庄的第一视角,以外部来看,第三视角。这个市场是纯在套利者的。他们可以持有现货同时持有空单。所以我们无法确定做空的人是否是裸空,是否会投降那如果oi>mc,那就表明,即便所有的现货持有人都是套利者,那也一定有人裸空,而一般这么大的比例的oI/mc基本都是庄开出来的,所以会认为有操盘。但是现在一开始看到的数据是错误的,oi要除以2,那么oI/mc的逻辑在大多数时候都不成立了。 ...
X @憨巴龙王
憨巴龙王· 2025-07-14 03:01
Market Observation - The industry has discovered that open interest (OI) is calculated bi-directionally [1] - Individual's position accounts for 10%-15% of the open interest (OI) in some contracts [1] - If OI is calculated bi-directionally, the individual's position would account for 20%-30% [1] - The industry's understanding of OI/MC data may be flawed due to the bi-directional calculation [1] Data Correction - Previously used OI/MC data may need to be divided by 2 to reflect the actual situation [1]
X @憨巴龙王
憨巴龙王· 2025-07-13 15:07
我说头像。符合憨巴龙的噜噜头像。 ...
X @憨巴龙王
憨巴龙王· 2025-07-13 15:05
最近喜欢噜噜,想要一个跟名字有关的可爱的噜噜。评论区直接发图,私信收不到,采纳了空投666u ...
X @憨巴龙王
憨巴龙王· 2025-07-13 13:39
最后,如果我的文章有时候不想说的很明白,因为能看懂的不会骂我,看不懂我说错了,你就会骂我。如果你实在看不懂,又想知道答案,建议多加点群,我昨天下午发文章后,好几个套利群都觉得我会打,所以很多人都加大力度了。本来也不想说,主要是一开始说错了,纠正下自己错误,免得有人想打因为我没打。 ...
X @憨巴龙王
憨巴龙王· 2025-07-13 13:33
Market Analysis - Two new addresses appeared in the top 10 holders of PUMP on HYPE yesterday afternoon, while the other eight were profitable traders with millions of dollars in gains [1] - HYPE held $250 million in positions yesterday afternoon, while Binance held $60 million, suggesting potential arbitrage activity [2] - After accounting for potential fake positions on HYPE and arbitrageurs on Binance, there is an estimated $200 million in real positions likely to participate in the new offering [2] - A large number of arbitrageurs are expected to participate in the new offering, reducing the number of naked shorts [2] - The potential total commitment for the new offering is estimated at $300-400 million, suggesting it will be oversubscribed [2] - Oversubscription is expected to drive up the price due to FOMO (fear of missing out) in the secondary market [2] - The offering should have been completed in 2-3 minutes instead of 14 minutes if there were no exchange issues [2]
X @憨巴龙王
憨巴龙王· 2025-07-13 13:17
当然,我也能理解很多愤怒的原因,就是bybit拖着不给结果,如果立马给结果,会在链上打/平套保。 ...
X @憨巴龙王
憨巴龙王· 2025-07-13 13:13
我在bybit 02s打进去的,分发了。淡定点吧,我准备了5m,gate kraken ,bybit bitget都准备了,唯独链上没搞。只有bybit进去了2m。其实后来仔细想想,真打5m进去,我也不敢全部套保,按照现在价格要套8m,钱是有很多,没那胆子。然后我在打新的时候,直接裸多一部分,具体原因参考带哥说的策略。所以就是裸打+裸多的一部分,其实我也很不满意bybit没有立马给结果,如果当时告诉我没打进去,我会直接把2m放在合约上。也不用套保了,直接清仓就好了。很多人说用程序不公平,不是...应该只是你没用上,你能用程序的时候,你觉得比谁都公平。淡定点吧。其实正常来说,应该把资金分成5份,所有地方都准备,确保能打到。反正你也不可能拿自己一半的本金去梭哈打预售吧?千万别又说我洗地了,前几天说几句okx也说我洗地。实话实说,我没收过交易所一分钱,甚至任何一份礼物。前几天何一好像给我回复了,我都懒得回,本来想跟她玩点抽象,说点龙哥(炫神)的梗, 怕被穿小鞋就算了。 ...
X @憨巴龙王
憨巴龙王· 2025-07-13 05:57
Market Dynamics & Trading Behavior - OKX's pre-market trading of altcoins like Ape experiences significant leverage reduction, dropping from $2-3 million to less than $10 thousand [1] - Binance offers 5x leverage with a limit of $250 thousand for altcoins like Ape, contrasting with OKX's previous higher leverage [1] - The report suggests that high leverage (e.g., 20x) is often designed for liquidating user positions [1] OKX Pre-Market Promotion - OKX promotes its pre-market trading platform, encouraging users to trade before the broader market activity increases [1]