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被退货逼疯的女装店家,选择了超长预售期
经济观察报· 2025-12-20 03:15
Core Viewpoint - The clothing industry is facing a decline, prompting merchants to control production through pre-sales as a strategy to "exchange time for survival space" [1][7]. Group 1: Pre-sale Dynamics - Pre-sale is defined as the sale of products before they officially enter the market, a practice that has evolved since its introduction by platforms like Taobao in 2012 [5]. - In 2024, major platforms like Taobao and JD.com announced the cancellation of pre-sales during the "618" shopping festival, but reintroduced them during "Double 11," indicating a fluctuating reliance on this sales model [5]. - Merchants like "DuoDuo" utilize pre-sales to manage inventory effectively, often only producing a fraction of the total orders based on expected return rates [6][11]. Group 2: Consumer Experience and Challenges - Consumers have expressed frustration with pre-sales, citing issues such as indefinite shipping times, order cancellations, and quality concerns [4][18]. - A survey indicated that 78% of respondents believe pre-sale periods are lengthening, with 80% stating that extended pre-sales diminish their shopping experience [18]. - The average return rate for some merchants has escalated, with "A Jie" reporting an increase from 50% to 80% in return rates, largely attributed to consumer behavior changes [15]. Group 3: Production and Supply Chain Implications - The overall scale of the clothing industry is shrinking, with significant declines in revenue and profit reported by major companies [7]. - Manufacturers face challenges with production timelines, as frequent changes in orders and styles lead to increased costs and inefficiencies [20][22]. - The shift towards smaller order quantities has resulted in higher production costs, complicating the supply chain for manufacturers [22]. Group 4: Regulatory and Market Trends - New regulations from platforms aim to shorten pre-sale periods to improve consumer experience, yet complexities in the industry mean that not all products can be treated the same [24]. - Some merchants are exploiting category misclassifications to extend pre-sale periods, indicating a potential loophole in the regulatory framework [25]. - Experts suggest that while pre-sales can lead to inefficiencies, they also represent a shift towards demand-driven production, which could be beneficial if managed properly [25].
预售围城
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-12-20 01:35
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing trend of pre-sale in the fashion industry, highlighting consumer frustrations and the operational challenges faced by merchants due to extended pre-sale periods and high return rates [1][6][23]. Group 1: Consumer Experience - Consumers are increasingly frustrated with pre-sale items that take too long to ship, leading to cancellations and dissatisfaction with product quality [1][2][3]. - A survey of approximately 30 consumers revealed various issues with pre-sale purchases, including unpredictable shipping times and receiving incorrect or low-quality items [3][4]. - A significant percentage of consumers (78%) believe that pre-sale periods are lengthening, and 80% feel that extended pre-sale negatively impacts their shopping experience [16][21]. Group 2: Merchant Strategies - Merchants like "DuoDuo" utilize pre-sale as a strategy to manage inventory and cash flow, often only producing a fraction of the orders to mitigate risks associated with high return rates [4][12][16]. - The average return rate for some merchants has increased significantly, with one brand reporting a rise from 50% to 80% in returns, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards trying multiple items before returning [13][14]. - Larger brands have different pre-sale strategies, often using it as a means to gauge demand before committing to production, while smaller merchants rely on pre-sale to manage cash flow and inventory [14][15][22]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The overall scale of the clothing industry is declining, with significant drops in revenue and production reported by major companies [5][6]. - Pre-sale has become a necessary tactic for survival in a challenging market, allowing merchants to "trade time for survival space" amidst declining sales [6][23]. - The article notes that the pre-sale model in the fashion industry resembles early real estate pre-sale practices, suggesting potential for market bubbles and the need for regulatory oversight [23][24]. Group 4: Operational Challenges - Manufacturers face increased complexity and costs due to frequent changes in production lines and the need to adapt to varying order sizes, which complicates the production process [17][20]. - The time required for production has increased, with manufacturers reporting longer wait times for orders due to the need for adjustments in production lines [17][19]. - The handling of returns adds additional operational costs for merchants, as each returned item requires inspection and potential refurbishment before resale [21][22].
X @憨巴龙王
憨巴龙王· 2025-07-13 00:01
Market Manipulation Strategies - Proposed methods to exploit arbitrageurs by creating artificial price discrepancies between spot and futures markets [1] - Suggests maintaining a high premium by opening large long positions in the 0.5-0.55 range [1] - Plans to delay delivery of pre-sales (600 million USD) to trap arbitrageurs [1] - Advocates creating a 20 million USD liquidity pool to attract investment and increase volatility [1] - Aims to create a situation with low spot market circulation and high futures market open interest [1] - Intends to trigger a short squeeze by manipulating the futures market, potentially multiplying long positions and generating liquidity [1] Financial Exploitation - Aims to capture the entire 600 million USD from pre-sales by exploiting market dynamics [1] - Suggests strategies for even larger-scale exploitation requiring capital investment [1]
X @子布
子布· 2025-06-19 12:36
Project Overview - A new cryptocurrency named ANDY, inspired by the "Boy's Club" comic character Andy, is launching on Solana, referencing a previous coin with a peak market cap of $350 million [1] - The project aims to function both as a meme coin associated with Matt Furie and as a platform token for an AI agent platform [1] Fundraising and Distribution - The project employs a model similar to the "small dinosaur" donation pool, involving offline promotional teams [1] - A presale is underway, allowing users to send SOL to a designated address, with individual contributions ranging from 0.5 SOL to 100 SOL; the presale address currently holds 596 SOL [1] - An airdrop campaign is active, rewarding participants with 100 tokens for following the official Twitter account and retweeting the pinned post, with an additional 50 tokens for referrals [1] Future Development - The project anticipates integrating market-leading models upon launch to foster the growth of its AI agent platform [1] - The "Node Start Time" is scheduled for June 19, 2025, at 12:00 [1]