Geopolitical Strategy & Trade Negotiations - The US is employing a non-linear, multi-lever economic strategy in geopolitics, leveraging military operations, diplomatic channels, financial sanctions, and oil markets to bring parties to the table and secure agreements [5][9][11] - The US is using military operations, such as those in Ukraine, as levers in negotiations, challenging notions of Russian dominance and pushing back against perceived leverage [7][8][9] - The US is leveraging financial sanctions, including freezing assets and potentially seizing Russian assets for Ukrainian benefit, as a significant tool in trade negotiations [13][14] - The US is considering offering "carrots" like lifting sanctions on Russian banks and cooperating on Arctic routes to incentivize cooperation alongside pressure tactics [15][16] - Arctic shipping routes are emerging as a critical geopolitical factor, with China and Russia collaborating to create a challenger to existing routes, impacting shipping insurance premiums and logistics costs [18][19] Digital Assets & Currency Competition - The rise of BRICS economies, de-dollarization efforts, and CBDC experiments are driving a rejig of the trade and dollar system, raising concerns within the US [23] - The US legalization of crypto has led to a significant liquidity event, with potential for further influx from other regions, particularly through 401ks [23] - Sovereign Bitcoin reserves are emerging, with the US and China becoming major holders, signaling a shift in government attitudes towards crypto as a reserve asset [24][25] - China is seriously considering launching a yuan-backed stablecoin from Hong Kong, indicating growing competition in the stablecoin space [27] - Different theaters are emerging around digital assets, including dollar-backed ecosystems, potentially neutral areas like Bitcoin, and alternative stablecoins/CBDCs from BRICS regions [28][29] Financial Market Dynamics - Liquidity dried up in bond markets after tariff announcements, but this has largely been resolved, though global bond markets and interest rates are experiencing significant shifts [32]

Oh boy. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson recently did an interview and he says tariff income is going to be over 1% of GDP. I I'd been saying 300 billion, but I think we're going to have to substantially revise that up.So well in excess 1% of GDP. And then with the new investment there, the sovereign investments that we talked about, but then in terms of the committed investment by private industry, we're well over 10 trillion. Regardless, whatever you think about the tariffs, whether they work or don't work ...

Now, everyone knows that the stock market continues to fly higher and that pessimists are screeching that everything is overvalued. The bears, they do have plenty of data to point to. The S&P 500 is now trading at 3.15%x sales.It's the highest valuation in history. Not so fast, my friends. There's a number of considerations worth unpacking here.For example, the US stock market is denominated in dollars, as you all know, and those dollars have been debased at a much faster pace than what the public has been ...

Market Volatility & Investment Strategy - Market volatility is expected to return, potentially leading to an asset price explosion in the second half of the year, advising strategic positioning [2][4][6] - Historically, volatility was seen negatively, but now it's part of digitalization and financialization trends [3] - The VIX (Volatility Index) is at its lowest point in 2025, suggesting an imminent increase in market volatility [5] Tariff Revenue & US Investment - Tariff income is projected to exceed 1% of GDP, surpassing the initial estimate of $300 billion [7][8] - Private industry is committing over $10 trillion in investments into the United States [8][9] - The US is gaining advantage in the geopolitical trade realm, potentially disadvantaging those betting against it [10] Geopolitics & Trade Negotiations - The US employs a multi-lever, non-linear strategy in trade negotiations, leveraging military operations, diplomacy, economic sanctions, and oil markets [22][23][28] - Disbanding of the Klepto Task Force and discussions on Arctic routes were potential incentives offered to Russia during negotiations [30][31][32] - Arctic shipping routes are emerging as a significant geopolitical factor, influencing trade and logistics [34][35] Cryptocurrency & Digital Assets - The US government and the Chinese government are among the largest holders of Bitcoin, holding the 3rd and 4th position respectively [40] - China is seriously considering launching a yuan-backed stablecoin, potentially from Hong Kong [42] - Governments recognize the growing demand for digital assets, leading to a complex dynamic between supporting these assets and safeguarding legacy systems [44][45]

Inflation & Tariffs - Inflation came in at 2.7% year-over-year, lower than economist expectations [2] - Energy fell by 1.1%, largely driven by gas prices falling 2.2% in July [4] - Food prices were flat at 0%, and down at the grocery store by 0.1% [5] - Alternative inflation metrics indicate a real-time inflation rate of 1.8%, lower than the government's 2.7% [7] - Tariffs are considered deflationary and are proving to be so, contrary to mainstream narratives [4][6][7] Real Estate Investment - Ray Dalio considers real estate a bad investment because it's more interest rate sensitive than inflation sensitive [11] - Real estate is a fixed asset that is easy to tax, limiting diversification [12][13] - Real estate is immobile, making it difficult to move money [12][13] Bitcoin as an Automated Asset - Bitcoin is becoming the first automated asset in the digital age, with no human intervention in monetary policy, network security, or transaction validation [16] - Bitcoin is described as AI money, automated and intelligent, used to store value or transact for goods and services [17] - Bitcoin's current valuation of $2.3 trillion is considered lower than its actual worth [18] - Bitcoin's monetary policy is coded into the system and remains constant regardless of inflation, demand, or economic conditions [21][22]

Market Valuation & Monetary Policy - S&P 500 is trading at 315% of sales, the highest valuation in history [1] - Fiat currencies have fallen by at least 2% annually over the last 54 years [1] - The US has been debasing the dollar at 4% a year for over 50 years, double the Fed's target of 2% inflation [1] - The dollar has been debased by 30% since 2020 [1] US Dominance & Bitcoin's Signal - 22 of the top 25 largest companies in the world are American [1] - In 2000, only 3 of the top 10 largest companies in the world were American, now 8 out of the top 10 are American [1] - Zero out of 30 Bitcoin bull market peak indicators have hit, suggesting the bull market is not ending soon [1] Retail Investors & AI Impact - Retail investors have been trained to buy the dip, which has been a winning strategy [1] - Macro investors are missing the impact of artificial intelligence on the market [1] - AI could lead to GDP growth of 20% to 30% in five years due to increased productivity [4] Generational Shift in Finance - A new generation of internet-native individuals are ascending to positions of power and influence in finance [7] - This generation's speed of information processing, risk appetite, and constant engagement provide a distinct advantage [8] - The combination of capital, fast decision-making, and reach is shaping the future of finance [21]

Bitcoin's volatility has long been a major selling point for investors to purchase and hold the asset. So, what happens if the volatility starts to disappear. That wouldn't be good, right.Well, we don't have to guess anymore because this is starting to happen over the last 2 years. Since the launch of the ETFs, the volatility on Bitcoin has plummeted. Mitchell Ascu concludes that this decreasing volatility means that Bitcoin looks like two entirely different assets before the ETF and after the ETF.The days ...

We now have proof that student loans are a gigantic scam. There's a viral video on X right now that is going to blow your mind. I'd like to know what type of crack Sally May is smoking that they think for the amount of $40,922 they should receive back $118,3559.I understand that this is an estimated cost. The fact that they for financing the money they want $77,38359 is asinine. That is crazy.But you know what. People are signing up for it. It's all about personal responsibility.When you sign the paper, you ...

Market Impact - The potential executive order could allow individuals to invest in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies through their 401k retirement accounts [1] - US retirement accounts hold an estimated $43 trillion, including approximately $9 trillion in defined contribution plans like 401ks [2] - The crypto industry's market capitalization is less than $4 trillion, suggesting a significant influx of capital into Bitcoin and crypto assets if the order is implemented [2] Investment Strategy & Risk - The report questions the allocation of American retirement accounts to US treasuries, which are described as assets that are essentially guaranteed to lose value over long periods of time [3][4] - The iShares 20 plus-year Treasury bond ETF has reportedly lost nearly 50% of its value in the last 5 years [5] - Traditional 60/40 portfolio allocations are criticized for potentially harming boomer portfolios [5] - The report advocates for giving investors the freedom to allocate to assets like Bitcoin, arguing it could offer a better chance to save themselves from financial disaster compared to traditional "safe" investments [6]

Now, we all got a friend who says, "If I had bought Bitcoin early, I'd have billions of dollars." No, you wouldn't. If you bought $100 of Bitcoin in 2010, you would have watched it go to 1K, 100K, and then 1.7% million. You would have done nothing.Then that 1.7% would have went down to $170K. Still would have done nothing. Then you would have watched 170K go to $110 million and still did nothing. Then you would have watched $110 million wither away to $18 million, did nothing. Then you would have watched $1 ...